Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

Factors affecting management decisions in rectal cancer in clinical practice: results from a national survey

Management of rectal cancer has become increasingly complex and a multidisciplinary approach is considered of key importance for improving outcomes. A national survey among specialists involved in this multidisciplinary setting was performed. A web-based survey containing 11 questions regarding rectal cancer management was sent to surgeons and medical oncologists registered by their corresponding societies as members. Statistical analysis was performed using the chi-square and Fisher`s exact tests for all categorical variables according to response to individual questions. Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox`s logistic regression. Overall, 418 email recipients responded the survey. Local staging was performed without either magnetic resonance imaging or endorectal ultrasound by 64% of responders. Seventy-two percent considered that final management decision should be made after neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy. Additionally, 46% considered that an alternative procedure (local excision or observation) was appropriate in a patient with a complete clinical response. Colorectal surgeons were more frequently in favor of longer intervals after completion of chemoradiation therapy (P = 0.001) and of alternative management procedures after a complete clinical response (P = 0.02). After multivariate analysis, the choice of a watch and wait approach after a complete clinical response following neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy was significantly more frequent among surgeons (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.8-7.1). Surgeons seem to be more in favor of tailoring management of rectal cancer according to tumor response after neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy, with longer intervals after chemoradiation therapy, decisions about treatment strategy being made after chemoradiation therapy instead of before, and the use of alternative surgical procedures after a complete clinical response following neoadjuvant therapy.

Fire management and the nesting of Athene cunicularia (Aves, Strigidae) in grasslands in central Cerrado, Brazil

Fire management is a common practice in several reserves in the Cerrado, but its influences on bird reproduction remain unknown. In addition, the nesting biology of the Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) has been studied in numerous environments, but not in tropical grasslands managed by fire. This study examined the effects of fire management on the nesting biology of A. cunicularia in Emas National Park, State of Goias, central Brazilian Cerrado. We compared the number of breeding pairs and their burrows in October and November 2009 at 15 study sites in grasslands managed by fire (firebreaks) and unmanaged grasslands adjacent to and distant from firebreaks. We visited active burrows two-four times and described the burrow entrances and sentinel sites and counted and observed adults and young. A total of 19 burrows were found at firebreaks. One and two burrows were found in grasslands adjacent to and distant from firebreaks, respectively. For all burrows found, one to three young reached the adult size, being able to fly and/or run in early November. The 22 burrows found were in the ground, associated or not with termite and ant nests. Most (86.4%) burrows had only one entrance. Only three burrows had two or three entrances. Structures used as sentinel perches by adults were mounds in front of the burrow entrances, termite nests, shrubs and trees. Most of these sentinel sites were shorter than 2 m high and located less than 10 m from the burrow entrance. At Emas National Park, firebreaks appear to provide more attractive conditions to the nesting of A. cunicularia than unmanaged grasslands, likely because of the short herbaceous stratum due to frequent burning of firebreaks. This study suggests that fire management provides suitable conditions for the successful reproduction of A. cunicularia in firebreaks at Emas National Park.

POPREP: a generic report for population management

Genetic variation provides a basis upon which populations can be genetically improved. Management of animal genetic resources in order to minimize loss of genetic diversity both within and across breeds has recently received attention at different levels, e. g., breed, national and international levels. A major need for sustainable improvement and conservation programs is accurate estimates of population parameters, such as rate of inbreeding and effective population size. A software system (POPREP) is presented that automatically generates a typeset report. Key parameters for population management, such as age structure, generation interval, variance in family size, rate of inbreeding, and effective population size form the core part of this report. The report includes a default text that describes definition, computation and meaning of the various parameters. The report is summarized in two pdf files, named Population Structure and Pedigree Analysis Reports. In addition, results (e. g., individual inbreeding coefficients, rate of inbreeding and effective population size) are stored in comma-separate-values files that are available for further processing. Pedigree data from eight livestock breeds from different species and countries were used to describe the potential of POPREP and to highlight areas for further research.

A survey on key management mechanisms for distributed Wireless Sensor Networks

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have a vast field of applications, including deployment in hostile environments. Thus, the adoption of security mechanisms is fundamental. However, the extremely constrained nature of sensors and the potentially dynamic behavior of WSNs hinder the use of key management mechanisms commonly applied in modern networks. For this reason, many lightweight key management solutions have been proposed to overcome these constraints. In this paper, we review the state of the art of these solutions and evaluate them based on metrics adequate for WSNs. We focus on pre-distribution schemes well-adapted for homogeneous networks (since this is a more general network organization), thus identifying generic features that can improve some of these metrics. We also discuss some challenges in the area and future research directions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time stability of soil water storage measured by neutron probe and the effects of calibration procedures in a small watershed

The knowledge of soil water storage (SWS) of soil profiles is crucial for the adoption of vegetation restoration practices. With the aim of identifying representative sites to obtain the mean SWS of a watershed, a time stability analysis of neutron probe evaluations of SWS was performed by the means of relative differences and Spearman rank correlation coefficients. At the same time, the effects of different neutron probe calibration procedures were explored on time stability analysis. mean SWS estimation. and preservation of the spatial variability of SWS. The selected watershed, with deep gullies and undulating slopes which cover an area of 20 ha, is characterized by an Ust-Sandiic Entisol and an Aeolian sandy soil. The dominant vegetation species are bunge needlegrass (Stipa bungeana Trim) and korshinsk peashrub (Carugano Korshinskii kom.). From June 11, 2007 to July 23,2008, SWS of the top1 m soil layer was evaluated for 20 dates, based on neutron probe data of 12 sampling sites. Three calibration procedures were employed: type 1, most complete, with each site having its own linear calibration equation (TrE); type II. with TrE equations extended over the whole field: and type III, with one single linear calibration curve for the whole field (UnE) and also correcting its intercept based on site specific relative difference analysis (RdE) and on linear fitting of data (RcE), both maintaining the same slope. A strong time stability of SWS estimated by TrE equations was identified. Soil particle size and soil organic matter content were recognized as the influencing factors for spatial variability of SWS. Land use influenced neither the spatial variability nor the time stability of SWS. Time stability analysis identified one site to represent the mean SWS of the whole watershed with mean absolute percentage errors of less than 10%, therefore. this site can be used as a predictor for the mean SWS of the watershed. Some equations of type II were found to be unsatisfactory to yield reliable mean SWS values or in preserving the associated soil spatial variability. Hence, it is recommended to be cautious in extending calibration equations to other sites since they might not consider the field variability. For the equations with corrected intercept (type III), which consider the spatial variability of calibration in a different way in relation to TrE, it was found that they can yield satisfactory means and standard deviation of SWS, except for the RdE equations, which largely leveled off the SWS values in the watershed. Correlation analysis showed that the neutron probe calibration was linked to soil bulk density and to organic matter content. Therefore, spatial variability of soil properties should be taken into account during the process of neutron probe calibration. This study provides useful information on the mean SWS observation with a time stable site and on distinct neutron probe calibration procedures, and it should be extended to soil water management studies with neutron probes, e.g., the process of vegetation restoration in wider area and soil types of the Loess Plateau in China. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How rare is too rare to harvest? Management challenges posed by timber species occurring at low densities in the Brazilian Amazon

Tropical forests are characterized by diverse assemblages of plant and animal species compared to temperate forests. Corollary to this general rule is that most tree species, whether valued for timber or not, occur at low densities (<1 adult tree ha(-1)) or may be locally rare. In the Brazilian Amazon, many of the most highly valued timber species occur at extremely low densities yet are intensively harvested with little regard for impacts on population structures and dynamics. These include big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla), ipe (Tabebuia serratifolia and Tabebuia impetiginosa), jatoba (Hymenaea courbaril), and freijo cinza (Cordia goeldiana). Brazilian forest regulations prohibit harvests of species that meet the legal definition of rare - fewer than three trees per 100 ha - but treat all species populations exceeding this density threshold equally. In this paper we simulate logging impacts on a group of timber species occurring at low densities that are widely distributed across eastern and southern Amazonia, based on field data collected at four research sites since 1997, asking: under current Brazilian forest legislation, what are the prospects for second harvests on 30-year cutting cycles given observed population structures, growth, and mortality rates? Ecologically `rare` species constitute majorities in commercial species assemblages in all but one of the seven large-scale inventories we analyzed from sites spanning the Amazon (range 49-100% of total commercial species). Although densities of only six of 37 study species populations met the Brazilian legal definition of a rare species, timber stocks of five of the six timber species declined substantially at all sites between first and second harvests in simulations based on legally allowable harvest intensities. Reducing species-level harvest intensity by increasing minimum felling diameters or increasing seed tree retention levels improved prospects for second harvests of those populations with a relatively high proportion of submerchantable stems, but did not dramatically improve projections for populations with relatively flat diameter distributions. We argue that restrictions on logging very low-density timber tree populations, such as the current Brazilian standard, provide inadequate minimum protection for vulnerable species. Population declines, even if reduced-impact logging (RIL) is eventually adopted uniformly, can be anticipated for a large pool of high-value timber species unless harvest intensities are adapted to timber species population ecology, and silvicultural treatments are adopted to remedy poor natural stocking in logged stands. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of the Subprime Crisis in the Provision of Credit Risk of Major National Banks

Financial institutions are directly exposed to the credit risk, that is, the risk of the borrower not fulfill with their obligations, paying their debts in its stated periods established previously. The bank predict this type of risk, including them in their balance-sheets. In 2006/2007 there was the impact of a new financial crisis that spread around the world, known as the crisis of subprime. The objective of this study is to analyze if the provisions for credit risk or liquidation increased the sprouting of the crisis of subprime in ten major national banks, chosen accordant to their total assets. To answer this question, the balance-sheets of each one of these banks in the period of 2005 to 2007 were analyzed. This research is characterized, as for its objectives, as descriptive and as for the procedures as documentary research. It is also characterized as having a qualitative approach. The results show that the crisis of subprime has caused little impact in the credit risk provision of the analyzed institutions. It was noticed a slight increase in the provision indicators at the peak of the crisis in 2006. These percentages were reduced in, 2007, probably reflecting the economic stability of Brazil and the stagnation of the crisis Of subprime in that year, at least in relation to in our country.

Country risk, national cultural differences between partners and survival of international joint ventures in Brazil

This article aims to identify the main and interaction effects of two country-level variables, namely national distance and country risk, on the survival of international joint ventures in emerging markets. Research hypotheses predicting the negative impact of national distance and country risk on survival of international joint ventures are formulated in this article. These research hypotheses are examined in a sample of 234 international joint ventures formed in Brazil between 1973 and 2004. These international joint ventures were subjected to an event history analysis over a period of time ranging from 1973 to 2006. The empirical results show that large national cultural differences between local and foreign partners increase the instability of international joint ventures, whereas the survival of these alliances does not seem to be affected either by the economic and political uncertainty of Brazil. Furthermore, the national distance between local and foreign partners has effects on survival that are variable according to the life cycle of international joint ventures. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GREEN MANAGEMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE AND SMALL BUSINESS IN BRAZIL: IMPLICATIONS FOR TRAINING AND EDUCATION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

This paper presents the results of a study on the analysis of training needs regarding environmental (green) management and climate change topics in micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in Brazil and its implications on education for sustainable development. It reports on an e-mail survey of Brazilian small enterprises, whose results indicate that they are indeed interested in environmental management and climate change topics in an education for sustainable development context. The study indicates that proposals for courses on environmental management and climate change should follow a systemic perspective and take sustainable development into account. By applying factor analysis, it was found that the topics of interest can be grouped into thematic modules, which can be useful in the design of training courses for the top management leaders of those companies.

Management of Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis in Latin America A Consensus Position Paper From Pan-American League of Associations of Rheumatology and Grupo Latino Americano De Estudio de Artritis Reumatoide

Objective: A consensus meeting of representatives of 18 Latin-American and Caribbean countries gathered in Renaca, Chile, for 2 days to identify problems and provide recommendations for the care of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Latin America, a region where poverty and other health priorities make the efforts to provide effective and high quality care difficult. This report includes recommendations for health professionals, patients, and health authorities in Latin America, with an emphasis oil education and therapeutic issues. Methods: Fifty-one rheumatologists (list available only online on the JCR website) from 18 Latin-American and Caribbean countries with a special interest in RA participated in the consensus meeting. Participants were experts identified and appointed by the National Societies of Rheumatology affiliated with the Pan-American League of Associations for Rheumatology (PANLAR) and by the Grupo Latino Americano De Estudio de Artritis Reumatoide (GLADAR)-an independent group of Latin American rheumatologist researchers were also invited to the meeting. Eight topics were identified as priorities: patient, community and allied health professional education, health policy and decision making, programs for early detection and appropriate treatment of RA, role of classic disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs), role of biologic therapy, and drug safety surveillance. To reach consensus, a survey with questions relevant to the topic of interest was sent to all participants before the meeting. During a 2 day meeting, the answers of the survey were reviewed and discussed by each group, with final recommendations on action items. Results: The specific topic of the survey was answered by 86% of the participants and 68% of them answered the entire survey. It was agreed that RA and rheumatic diseases which are currently not but should be public health priorities in Latin America, because of their prevalence and impact on quality of life. Conclusions: Strategic areas identified as priorities for our region included: early diagnosis and access to care by multidisciplinary teams, creation of databases to identify infections with the use of biologic agents in RA which are relevant to Latin America, and overall efforts to improve the care of RA patients in accordance with international standards. Implementation of educational programs aimed to improve self-management for patients with RA was also considered crucial.

Diabetes, hyperglycemia and the management of cerebrovascular disease

Purpose of review Hyperglycemia is frequent in patients with cerebrovascular disease. This review article aims to summarize the recent evidence from observational studies that examined the adverse cerebrovascular effects of dysglycemic states as well as interventional studies assessing intensive management strategies for hyperglycemia. Recent findings In recent years, diabetes, prediabetic states and insulin resistance and their association with cerebrovascular disease were an important focus of research. The cerebrovascular consequences of these metabolic abnormalities were found to extend beyond ischemic stroke to covert brain infarcts, other structural brain changes and to cognitive impairment with and without dementia. Interventional studies did not reveal that more intensive management of chronic hyperglycemia and of hyperglycemia in the setting of acute stroke improves outcome. There is clear evidence, however, that the overall management of multiple risk factors and behavior modification in patients with dysglycemia may reduce the burden of cerebrovascular disease. Summary Observational studies reveal the growing burden and adverse cerebrovascular effects of dysglycemic states. Currently available interventional studies assessing more intensive strategies for the management of hyperglycemia did not prove, however, to be effective. We discuss the current evidence, pathophysiological considerations and management implications.

The universal newborn hearing screening in Brazil: From identification to intervention

Objective: The objective of the study is to investigate the results of the newborn hearing screening program carried out in a Public Hospital in Brazil, in the first 3 years regarding: (1) the prevalence of hearing impairment; (2) the influence of the universal hearing screening program on the age at which the diagnosis of hearing loss is defined; (3) the cost effectiveness of the program; (4) the outcomes, in terms of the age in which the hearing rehabilitation started. Methods: A descriptive study of the first 3 years after starting the universal newborn hearing screening in a Public Hospital of Bauru, Sao Paulo state, Brazil. The screening method consists of a two-stage screening approach with transient otoacoustic emissions (TOAE), conducted by an audiologist. If the outcome in the second-stage screening is REFER, the infant is submitted to diagnostic follow-up testing and intervention at the Audiology and Speech Pathology Clinic at the University of Sao Paulo, campus of Bauru. The evaluation of the costs of the universal newborn hearing screening program per each screened newborn (around 4000/year) was done based on a proposal by the National Center for Hearing Assessment and Management, of the Utah State University, United States of America. Results: 11,466 newborns were submitted to hearing screening, corresponding to 90.52% of the living newborns. The prevalence of sensorineural hearing loss was 0.96:1000. Of the 11 children with sensorineural hearing loss, eight children received hearing aids and five started the therapeutic process before the age of 1. Currently, four children between the ages of 11 months and 2 years old were submitted to cochlear implant surgery. The cost of hearing screening was US$7.00 and the annual cost of the universal newborn hearing screening program was US$26,940.47. Conclusion: The hospital-based universal newborn hearing screening carried out through the Brazilian National Health System is viable, with promising results. However, in a country such as Brazil, which presents large socio-economic differences, the same type of analyses should be performed in several regions, so as to take into account specific aspects, to implement the newborn hearing screening along with the Public System. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Satellite Rainfall Estimates Over South America - Possible Applicability to the Water Management of Large Watersheds1

This work analyzes high-resolution precipitation data from satellite-derived rainfall estimates over South America, especially over the Amazon Basin. The goal is to examine whether satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used in hydrology and in the management of larger watersheds of South America. High spatial-temporal resolution precipitation estimates obtained with the CMORPH method serve this purpose while providing an additional hydrometeorological perspective on the convective regime over South America and its predictability. CMORPH rainfall estimates at 8-km spatial resolution for 2003 and 2004 were compared with available rain gauge measurements at daily, monthly, and yearly accumulation time scales. The results show the correlation between satellite-derived and gauge-measured precipitation increases with accumulation period from daily to monthly, especially during the rainy season. Time-longitude diagrams of CMORPH hourly rainfall show the genesis, strength, longevity, and phase speed of convective systems. Hourly rainfall analyses indicate that convection over the Amazon region is often more organized than previously thought, thus inferring that basin scale predictions of rainfall for hydrological and water management purposes have the potential to become more skillful. Flow estimates based on CMORPH and the rain gauge network are compared to long-term observed average flow. The results suggest this satellite-based rainfall estimation technique has considerable utility. Other statistics for monthly accumulations also suggest CMORPH can be an important source of rainfall information at smaller spatial scales where in situ observations are lacking.