Longitudinal Poisson modeling: an application for CD4 counting in HIV-infected patients

In this paper, we present different ofrailtyo models to analyze longitudinal data in the presence of covariates. These models incorporate the extra-Poisson variability and the possible correlation among the repeated counting data for each individual. Assuming a CD4 counting data set in HIV-infected patients, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian analysis considering the different proposed models and using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We also discuss some Bayesian discrimination aspects for the choice of the best model.

COM-Poisson cure rate survival models and an application to a cutaneous melanoma data

In this paper, we develop a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution. This model includes as special cases some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature. Next, we discuss the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of this cure rate survival model. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of this model by applying it to a real cutaneous melanoma data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Beta-binomial/Poisson regression models for repeated bivariate counts

We analyze data obtained from a study designed to evaluate training effects on the performance of certain motor activities of Parkinson`s disease patients. Maximum likelihood methods were used to fit beta-binomial/Poisson regression models tailored to evaluate the effects of training on the numbers of attempted and successful specified manual movements in 1 min periods, controlling for disease stage and use of the preferred hand. We extend models previously considered by other authors in univariate settings to account for the repeated measures nature of the data. The results suggest that the expected number of attempts and successes increase with training, except for patients with advanced stages of the disease using the non-preferred hand. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estudo longitudinal da compreensão verbal de crianças usuárias de implante coclear

OBJETIVO: analisar a compreensão verbal de crianças surdas usuárias de implante coclear (IC) por meio de um estudo longitudinal. MÉTODOS: os participantes foram nove crianças surdas usuárias de IC. A idade cronológica das crianças variou entre quatro e oito anos e o tempo de uso do IC foi, em média, 1 ano e 6 meses na 1ª avaliação, 3 anos e 7 meses na 2ª avaliação e 4 anos e 9 meses na 3ª avaliação. As crianças foram avaliadas longitudinalmente por meio da Escala de Compreensão Verbal da RDLS. Os materiais usados foram brinquedos, objetos e figuras. Os dados foram analisados qualitativa e quantitativamente. RESULTADOS: os resultados mostraram que as crianças implantadas obtiveram uma evolução estatisticamente significante em relação às habilidades de linguagem receptiva. CONCLUSÃO: o estudo comprova a efetividade do IC para o desenvolvimento da compreensão verbal.

Irrompimento do primeiro molar permanente em crianças de 5 e 6 anos de idade: implicações da análise longitudinal para prevenção da cárie oclusal

O tempo de irrompimento dentário é essencial para o planejamento de medidas de prevenção da cárie oclusal. Com a ampliação do ensino fundamental de oito para nove anos de duração, um número maior de crianças entre cinco e seis anos de idade é incluído na primeira série do ensino fundamental. OBJETIVO: O objetivo foi estimar as tendências do irrompimento dos primeiros molares permanentes em meninos e meninas de 5 e 6 anos de idade. MÉTODOS: Em estudo longitudinal, espaços dentários de 497 crianças de 60 meses e mais de idade foram examinados quatro vezes por um dentista calibrado (kappa > 0,97) durante 18 meses. O primeiro molar permanente foi considerado irrompido quando qualquer parte de sua superfície podia ser tocada por uma sonda de ponta esférica. A idade dos participantes foi medida em meses. Intervalos para 95% de confiança dos valores de prevalência e incidência foram apurados conforme o sexo para três coortes etárias: 60,0 a 65,9; 66,0 a 71,9; 72,0 a 77,9 meses. A razão entre as taxas de incidência foi estimada por meio de análise de regressão de Poisson. RESULTADOS: A maioria das crianças entre 66,0 e 71,9 meses e entre 72,0 e 77,9 meses tem pelo menos um molar permanente irrompido. No grupo de 66,0 a 71,9 meses, de cada três crianças pelo menos uma apresentou os quatro primeiros molares permanentes irrompidos. CONCLUSÃO. As tendências de irrompimento observadas justificam a necessidade da adoção de medidas de vigilância e de proteção específica em relação à lesão de cárie oclusal.

Longitudinal double-spin asymmetry for inclusive jet production in (p)over-right-arrow + (p)over-right-arrow collisions at root s=200 GeV

We report a new STAR measurement of the longitudinal double-spin asymmetry A(LL) for inclusive jet production at midrapidity in polarized p+p collisions at a center-of-mass energy of root s = 200 GeV. The data, which cover jet transverse momenta 5 < p(T) < 30 GeV/c, are substantially more precise than previous measurements. They provide significant new constraints on the gluon spin contribution to the nucleon spin through the comparison to predictions derived from one global fit to polarized deep-inelastic scattering measurements. They provide significant new constraints on the gluon spin contribution to the nucleon spin through the comparison to predictions derived from one global fit to polarized deep-inelastic scattering measurements.

Charm and longitudinal structure functions within the Kharzeev-Levin-Nardi model

We use the Kharzeev-Levin-Nardi (KLN) model of the low x gluon distributions to fit recent HERA data on F(L) and F(2)(c)(F(2)(b)). Having checked that this model gives a good description of the data, we use it to predict F(L) and F(2)(c) to be measured in a future electron-ion collider. The results are similar to those obtained with the de Florian-Sassot and Eskola-Paukkunen-Salgado nuclear gluon distributions. The conclusion of this exercise is that the KLN model, simple as it is, may still be used as an auxiliary tool to make estimates for both heavy-ion and electron-ion collisions.

The Poisson-exponential lifetime distribution

In this paper we proposed a new two-parameters lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate. The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risk problem base. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulae for its reliability and failure rate functions, quantiles and moments, including the mean and variance. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates is presented. The Fisher information matrix is derived analytically in order to obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Formulating Mixed Models for Experiments, Including Longitudinal Experiments

Mixed models have become important in analyzing the results of experiments, particularly those that require more complicated models (e.g., those that involve longitudinal data). This article describes a method for deriving the terms in a mixed model. Our approach extends an earlier method by Brien and Bailey to explicitly identify terms for which autocorrelation and smooth trend arising from longitudinal observations need to be incorporated in the model. At the same time we retain the principle that the model used should include, at least, all the terms that are justified by the randomization. This is done by dividing the factors into sets, called tiers, based on the randomization and determining the crossing and nesting relationships between factors. The method is applied to formulate mixed models for a wide range of examples. We also describe the mixed model analysis of data from a three-phase experiment to investigate the effect of time of refinement on Eucalyptus pulp from four different sources. Cubic smoothing splines are used to describe differences in the trend over time and unstructured covariance matrices between times are found to be necessary.

Double generalized linear model for tissue culture proportion data: a Bayesian perspective

Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

Sequential Changes of Longitudinal and Radial Myocardial Deformation Indices in the Healthy Neonate Heart

Background: Significant hemodynamic changes, including preload and afterload modifications, occur during the transition from the fetal to the neonatal environment. The ductus arteriosus closes, pulmonary vascular resistance decreases, and pulmonary blood flow increases. Strain rate (SR) and strain (e) have been proposed as ultrasound indices for quantifying regional wall deformation. This study was designed to determine if these indices can detect variations in regional deformation between early and late neonatal periods. Methods: Data were obtained from 30 healthy neonates (15 male). The initial study was performed at a mean age of 20.1614 hours (exam 1) and the second at 31.962.9 days (exam 2). Apical and parasternal views were used to quantify regional left ventricular (LV) and right ventricular (RV) longitudinal and radial SR and e, and systolic, early, and late diastolic values were calculated from these curves. A paired-samples t test was performed comparing the two groups. Results: Compared with exam 1, LV radial deformation showed significant reductions in peak systolic e in the basal and mid segments (51615% vs 4669%, P < .01). LV longitudinal deformation behaved similarly, showing significant peak systolic e reductions in all measured segments. Systolic SR showed reductions only in the basal and apical segments of the lateral wall and in the mid portion of the inferior wall (-1.9 +/- 0.5 vs -1.7 +/- 0.3 s(-1) and -1.9 +/- 0.4 vs -1.7 +/- 0.2 s(-1), respectively, P = .03). RV longitudinal free and inferior wall systolic SR and e values were significantly higher in exam 2. Conclusions: LV peak systolic e decreases in exam 2 were possibly due to afterload increase and preload decrease. The lower RV initial deformation indices could be attributed to increased afterload caused by physiologic pulmonary hypertension or immature RV contractile properties. SR seemed to be a more robust index than e and less influenced by preload and afterload hemodynamic alteration. (J Am Soc Echocardiogr 2010;23:294-300.)

MEDIAL LONGITUDINAL ARCH CHANGE IN DIABETIC PERIPHERAL NEUROPATHY

Objective: To describe and compare foot anthropometry in healthy and diabetic subjects using Medial Longitudinal Arch (MLA) classificatory indexes: Arch Index (AI), Chippaux-Smirak Index (CSI) and (A) over cap Angle ((A) over cap), as well as to compare the classification of these methods in each group. Materials and Methods: Control Group (CG) composed by 21 healthy subjects and Diabetic Group (DG), with 46 diabetic neuropathy subjects. The indexes were calculated from footprints. Results: A larger proportion of flat feet was seen in DG for the three indexes (At: 32,2%, CSI: 59,7%, A: 17,5%), while highly arched feet acted oppositely. The groups were statistically different for the proportion of flat feet in (A) over cap (p=0,0080) and CSI (p=0,0000) and high feet in A (p=0,0036). There were significant differences when compared GC and GD in the three indexes: IA (p 0,0027), CSI (p=0,0064), (A) over cap (p=0,0296). Conclusion: Data showed motor and orthopedic changes originated by peripheral neuropathy, which is responsible for foot changes, causing longitudinal arch crumbling. It was seen that A Angle strongly disagreed when compared with the arch classification made by the other two indexes and therefore, its application needs care.

Childhood Trauma and Children`s Emerging Psychotic Symptoms: A Genetically Sensitive Longitudinal Cohort Study

Objective: Using longitudinal and prospective measures of trauma during childhood, the authors assessed the risk of developing psychotic symptoms associated with maltreatment, bullying, and accidents in a nationally representative U. K. cohort of young twins. Method: Data were from the Environmental Risk Longitudinal Twin Study, which follows 2,232 twin children and their families. Mothers were interviewed during home visits when children were ages 5, 7, 10, and 12 on whether the children had experienced maltreatment by an adult, bullying by peers, or involvement in an accident. At age 12, children were asked about bullying experiences and psychotic symptoms. Children`s reports of psychotic symptoms were verified by clinicians. Results: Children who experienced maltreatment by an adult (relative risk=3.16, 95% CI=1.92-5.19) or bullying by peers (relative risk=2.47, 95% CI=1.74-3.52) were more likely to report psychotic symptoms at age 12 than were children who did not experience such traumatic events. The higher risk for psychotic symptoms was observed whether these events occurred early in life or later in childhood. The risk associated with childhood trauma remained significant in analyses controlling for children`s gender, socioeconomic deprivation, and IQ; for children`s early symptoms of internalizing or externalizing problems; and for children`s genetic liability to developing psychosis. In contrast, the risk associated with accidents was small (relative risk=1.47, 95% CI=1.02-2.13) and inconsistent across ages. Conclusions: Trauma characterized by intention to harm is associated with children`s reports of psychotic symptoms. Clinicians working with children who report early symptoms of psychosis should inquire about traumatic events such as maltreatment and bullying.

The impact of perinatal and socioeconomic factors on mental health problems of children from a poor Brazilian city: a longitudinal study

Low birth weight and preterm birth, and social disadvantage may negatively affect mental health of children, but findings have been inconsistent. To assess the influence of perinatal and social factors on mental health problems in children aged 7-9 years. A random sample of 805 births in So Luis, Brazil was studied in 1997/1998 and again in 2005/2006. Perinatal, socioeconomic and demographic variables were assessed within 24 h after delivery. The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) was used to assess mental health problems in the children. Simple and multiple Poisson regressions were used for statistical analysis. The overall prevalence of mental health problems in the total sample was 47.7%. The prevalences of emotional and conduct problems were 58.2 and 48.8%, respectively. Only paternal age (< 20 years) was associated with mental health problems as measured by the full SDQ scale (prevalence ratio PR = 1.27). Children born to single mothers (PR = 1.31) and those with birth weight from 1,500 to 2,499 g (PR = 1.18) and from 2,500 to 2,999 g (PR = 1.17) had a higher risk of emotional problems, but those from low income families had a lower risk (PR = 0.80). Children with a father of less than 20 years had a higher risk of having problems with their peers (PR = 1.75). A maternal education of 9 years or over was inversely associated with peer (PR = 0.70) and conduct problems (PR = 0.73). Girls had a lower risk of conduct (PR = 0.77) and hyperactivity problems (PR = 0.68). A maternal education of 4 years or less increased the risk of hyperactivity (PR = 1.48). Socioeconomic and demographic conditions were better predictors of mental health problems in children than birth weight or preterm birth. However, since most effect sizes were small most mental health problems were, unexplained by the variables in the study.

Metabolic acidosis in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock: A longitudinal quantitative study

Objective: To describe the composition of metabolic acidosis in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock at intensive care unit admission and throughout the first 5 days of intensive care unit stay. Design: Prospective, observational study. Setting: Twelve-bed intensive care unit. Patients: Sixty patients with either severe sepsis or septic shock. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: Data were collected until 5 days after intensive care unit admission. We studied the contribution of inorganic ion difference, lactate, albumin, phosphate, and strong ion gap to metabolic acidosis. At admission, standard base excess was -6.69 +/- 4.19 mEq/L in survivors vs. -11.63 +/- 4.87 mEq/L in nonsurvivors (p < .05); inorganic ion difference (mainly resulting from hyperchloremia) was responsible for a decrease in standard base excess by 5.64 +/- 4.96 mEq/L in survivors vs. 8.94 +/- 7.06 mEq/L in nonsurvivors (p < .05); strong ion gap was responsible for a decrease in standard base excess by 4.07 +/- 3.57 mEq/L in survivors vs. 4.92 +/- 5.55 mEq/L in nonsurvivors with a nonsignificant probability value; and lactate was responsible for a decrease in standard base excess to 1.34 +/- 2.07 mEq/L in survivors vs. 1.61 +/- 2.25 mEq/L in nonsurvivors with a nonsignificant probability value. Albumin had an important alkalinizing effect in both groups; phosphate had a minimal acid-base effect. Acidosis in survivors was corrected during the study period as a result of a decrease in lactate and strong ion gap levels, whereas nonsurvivors did not correct their metabolic acidosis. In addition to Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation 11 score and serum creatinine level, inorganic ion difference acidosis magnitude at intensive care unit admission was independently associated with a worse outcome. Conclusions: Patients with severe sepsis and septic shock exhibit a complex metabolic acidosis at intensive care unit admission, caused predominantly by hyperchloremic acidosis, which was more pronounced in nonsurvivors. Acidosis resolution in survivors was attributable to a decrease in strong ion gap and lactate levels. (Crit Care Med 2009; 37:2733-2739)