The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Influence of multi-scale landscape structure on the occurrence of carnivorous mammals in a human-modified savanna, Brazil

So Paulo is the most developed state in Brazil and contains few fragments of native ecosystems, generally surrounded by intensive agriculture lands. Despite this, some areas still shelter large native animals. We aimed at understanding how medium and large carnivores use a mosaic landscape of forest/savanna and agroecosystems, and how the species respond to different landscape parameters (percentage of landcover and edge density), in a multi-scale perspective. The response variables were: species richness, carnivore frequency and frequency for the three most recorded species (Puma concolor, Chrysocyon brachyurus and Leopardus pardalis). We compared 11 competing models using Akaike`s information criterion (AIC) and assessed model support using weight of AIC. Concurrent models were combinations of landcover types (native vegetation, ""cerrado"" formations, ""cerrado"" and eucalypt plantation), landscape feature (percentage of landcover and edge density) and spatial scale. Herein, spatial scale refers to the radius around a sampling point defining a circular landscape. The scales analyzed were 250 (fine), 1,000 (medium) and 2,000 m (coarse). The shape of curves for response variables (linear, exponential and power) was also assessed. Our results indicate that species with high mobility, P. concolor and C. brachyurus, were best explained by edge density of the native vegetation at a coarse scale (2,000 m). The relationship between P. concolor and C. brachyurus frequency had a negative power-shaped response to explanatory variables. This general trend was also observed for species richness and carnivore frequency. Species richness and P. concolor frequency were also well explained by a second concurrent model: edge density of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. A different response was recorded for L. pardalis, as the frequency was best explained for the amount of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. The curve of response was linearly positive. The contrasting results (P. concolor and C. brachyurus vs L. pardalis) may be due to the much higher mobility of the two first species, in comparison with the third. Still, L. pardalis requires habitat with higher quality when compared with other two species. This study highlights the importance of considering multiple spatial scales when evaluating species responses to different habitats. An important and new finding was the prevalence of edge density over the habitat extension to explain overall carnivore distribution, a key information for planning and management of protected areas.

Forest structure and live aboveground biomass variation along an elevational gradient of tropical Atlantic moist forest (Brazil)

Live aboveground biomass (AGB) is an important source of uncertainty in the carbon balance from the tropical regions in part due scarcity of reliable estimates of live AGB and its variation across landscapes and forest types. Studies of forest structure and biomass stocks of Neotropical forests are biased toward Amazonian and Central American sites. In particular, standardized estimates of aboveground biomass stocks for the Brazilian Atlantic forest are rarely available. Notwithstanding the role of environmental variables that control the distribution and abundance of biomass in tropical lowland forests has been the subject of considerable research, the effect of short, steep elevational gradients on tropical forest structure and carbon dynamics is not well known. In order to evaluate forest structure and live AGB variation along an elevational gradient (0-1100 m a.s.l.) of coastal Atlantic Forest in SE Brazil, we carried out a standard census of woody stems >= 4.8 cm dbh in 13 1-ha permanent plots established on four different sites in 2006-2007. Live AGB ranged from 166.3 Mg ha(-1) (bootstrapped 95% CI: 1444,187.0) to 283.2 Mg ha(-1) (bootstrapped 95% CI: 253.0,325.2) and increased with elevation. We found that local-scale topographic variation associated with elevation influences the distribution of trees >50 cm dbh and total live AGB. Across all elevations, we found more stems (64-75%) with limited crown illumination but the largest proportion of the live AGB (68-85%) was stored in stems with highly illuminated or fully exposed crowns. Topography, disturbance and associated changes in light and nutrient supply probably control biomass distribution along this short but representative elevational gradient. Our findings also showed that intact Atlantic forest sites stored substantial amounts of carbon aboveground. The live tree AGB of the stands was found to be lower than Central Amazonian forests, but within the range of Neotropical forests, in particular when compared to Central American forests. Our comparative data suggests that differences in live tree AGB among Neotropical forests are probably related to the heterogeneous distribution of large and medium-sized diameter trees within forests and how the live biomass is partitioned among those size classes, in accordance with general trends found by previous studies. In addition, the elevational variation in live AGB stocks suggests a large spatial variability over coastal Atlantic forests in Brazil, clearly indicating that it is important to consider regional differences in biomass stocks for evaluating the role of this threatened tropical biome in the global carbon cycle. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Importance of estimating matrix quality for modeling species distribution in complex tropical landscapes: a test with Atlantic forest small mammals

Information to guide decision making is especially urgent in human dominated landscapes in the tropics, where urban and agricultural frontiers are still expanding in an unplanned manner. Nevertheless, most studies that have investigated the influence of landscape structure on species distribution have not considered the heterogeneity of altered habitats of the matrix, which is usually high in human dominated landscapes. Using the distribution of small mammals in forest remnants and in the four main altered habitats in an Atlantic forest landscape, we investigated 1) how explanatory power of models describing species distribution in forest remnants varies between landscape structure variables that do or do not incorporate matrix quality and 2) the importance of spatial scale for analyzing the influence of landscape structure. We used standardized sampling in remnants and altered habitats to generate two indices of habitat quality, corresponding to the abundance and to the occurrence of small mammals. For each remnant, we calculated habitat quantity and connectivity in different spatial scales, considering or not the quality of surrounding habitats. The incorporation of matrix quality increased model explanatory power across all spatial scales for half the species that occurred in the matrix, but only when taking into account the distance between habitat patches (connectivity). These connectivity models were also less affected by spatial scale than habitat quantity models. The few consistent responses to the variation in spatial scales indicate that despite their small size, small mammals perceive landscape features at large spatial scales. Matrix quality index corresponding to species occurrence presented a better or similar performance compared to that of species abundance. Results indicate the importance of the matrix for the dynamics of fragmented landscapes and suggest that relatively simple indices can improve our understanding of species distribution, and could be applied in modeling, monitoring and managing complex tropical landscapes.

Using Imaging Spectroscopy to study soil properties

Imaging Spectroscopy (IS) is a promising tool for studying soil properties in large spatial domains. Going from point to image spectrometry is not only a journey from micro to macro scales, but also a long stage where problems such as dealing with data having a low signal-to-noise level, contamination of the atmosphere, large data sets, the BRDF effect and more are often encountered. In this paper we provide an up-to-date overview of some of the case studies that have used IS technology for soil science applications. Besides a brief discussion on the advantages and disadvantages of IS for studying soils, the following cases are comprehensively discussed: soil degradation (salinity, erosion, and deposition), soil mapping and classification, soil genesis and formation, soil contamination, soil water content, and soil swelling. We review these case studies and suggest that the 15 data be provided to the end-users as real reflectance and not as raw data and with better signal-to-noise ratios than presently exist. This is because converting the raw data into reflectance is a complicated stage that requires experience, knowledge, and specific infrastructures not available to many users, whereas quantitative spectral models require good quality data. These limitations serve as a barrier that impedes potential end-users, inhibiting researchers from trying this technique for their needs. The paper ends with a general call to the soil science audience to extend the utilization of the IS technique, and it provides some ideas on how to propel this technology forward to enable its widespread adoption in order to achieve a breakthrough in the field of soil science and remote sensing. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic portrait of the planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance - I. Systems with a more massive outer planet

We analyse the global structure of the phase space of the planar planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance in cases where the outer planet is more massive than its inner companion. Inside the resonant domain, we show the existence of two families of periodic orbits, one associated to the librational motion of resonant angle (sigma-family) and the other related to the circulatory motion of the difference in longitudes of pericentre (Delta pi-family). The well-known apsidal corotation resonances (ACR) appear as intersections between both families. A complex web of secondary resonances is also detected for low eccentricities, whose strengths and positions are dependent on the individual masses and spatial scale of the system. The construction of dynamical maps for various values of the total angular momentum shows the evolution of the families of stable motion with the eccentricities, identifying possible configurations suitable for exoplanetary systems. For low-moderate eccentricities, several different stable modes exist outside the ACR. For larger eccentricities, however, all stable solutions are associated to oscillations around the stationary solutions. Finally, we present a possible link between these stable families and the process of resonance capture, identifying the most probable routes from the secular region to the resonant domain, and discussing how the final resonant configuration may be affected by the extension of the chaotic layer around the resonance region.

Comparing species and measures of landscape structure as indicators of conservation importance

P>1. The use of indicators to identify areas of conservation importance has been challenged on several grounds, but nonetheless retains appeal as no more parsimonious approach exists. Among the many variants, two indicator strategies stand out: the use of indicator species and the use of metrics of landscape structure. While the first has been thoroughly studied, the same cannot be said about the latter. We aimed to contrast the relative efficacy of species-based and landscape-based indicators by: (i) comparing their ability to reflect changes in community integrity at regional and landscape spatial scales, (ii) assessing their sensitivity to changes in data resolution, and (iii) quantifying the degree to which indicators that are generated in one landscape or at one spatial scale can be transferred to additional landscapes or scales. 2. We used data from more than 7000 bird captures in 65 sites from six 10 000-ha landscapes with different proportions of forest cover in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. Indicator species and landscape-based indicators were tested in terms of how effective they were in reflecting changes in community integrity, defined as deviations in bird community composition from control areas. 3. At the regional scale, indicator species provided more robust depictions of community integrity than landscape-based indicators. At the landscape scale, however, landscape-based indicators performed more effectively, more consistently and were also more transferable among landscapes. The effectiveness of high resolution landscape-based indicators was reduced by just 12% when these were used to explain patterns of community integrity in independent data sets. By contrast, the effectiveness of species-based indicators was reduced by 33%. 4. Synthesis and applications. The use of indicator species proved to be effective; however their results were variable and sensitive to changes in scale and resolution, and their application requires extensive and time-consuming field work. Landscape-based indicators were not only effective but were also much less context-dependent. The use of landscape-based indicators may allow the rapid identification of priority areas for conservation and restoration, and indicate which restoration strategies should be pursued, using remotely sensed imagery. We suggest that landscape-based indicators might often be a better, simpler, and cheaper strategy for informing decisions in conservation.

Is bird incidence in Atlantic forest fragments influenced by landscape patterns at multiple scales?

The degree to which habitat fragmentation affects bird incidence is species specific and may depend on varying spatial scales. Selecting the correct scale of measurement is essential to appropriately assess the effects of habitat fragmentation on bird occurrence. Our objective was to determine which spatial scale of landscape measurement best describes the incidence of three bird species (Pyriglena leucoptera, Xiphorhynchus fuscus and Chiroxiphia caudata) in the fragmented Brazilian Atlantic forest and test if multi-scalar models perform better than single-scalar ones. Bird incidence was assessed in 80 forest fragments. The surrounding landscape structure was described with four indices measured at four spatial scales (400-, 600-, 800- and 1,000-m buffers around the sample points). The explanatory power of each scale in predicting bird incidence was assessed using logistic regression, bootstrapped with 1,000 repetitions. The best results varied between species (1,000-m radius for P. leucoptera; 800-m for X. fuscus and 600-m for C. caudata), probably due to their distinct feeding habits and foraging strategies. Multi-scale models always resulted in better predictions than single-scale models, suggesting that different aspects of the landscape structure are related to different ecological processes influencing bird incidence. In particular, our results suggest that local extinction and (re)colonisation processes might simultaneously act at different scales. Thus, single-scale models may not be good enough to properly describe complex pattern-process relationships. Selecting variables at multiple ecologically relevant scales is a reasonable procedure to optimise the accuracy of species incidence models.

The challenge of maintaining Atlantic forest biodiversity: A multi-taxa conservation assessment of specialist and generalist species in an agro-forestry mosaic in southern Bahia

Recent developments have highlighted the importance of forest amount at large spatial scales and of matrix quality for ecological processes in remnants. These developments, in turn, suggest the potential for reducing biodiversity loss through the maintenance of a high percentage of forest combined with sensitive management of anthropogenic areas. We conducted a multi-taxa survey to evaluate the potential for biodiversity maintenance in an Atlantic forest landscape that presented a favorable context from a theoretical perspective (high proportion of mature forest partly surrounded by structurally complex matrices). We sampled ferns, butterflies, frogs, lizards, bats, small mammals and birds in interiors and edges of large and small mature forest remnants and two matrices (second-growth forests and shade cacao plantations), as well as trees in interiors of small and large remnants. By considering richness, abundance and composition of forest specialists and generalists, we investigated the biodiversity value of matrix habitats (comparing them with interiors of large remnants for all groups except tree), and evaluated area (for all groups) and edge effects (for all groups except trees) in mature forest remnants. our results suggest that in landscapes comprising high amounts of mature forest and low contrasting matrices: (1) shade cacao plantations and second-growth forests harbor an appreciable number of forest specialists; (2) most forest specialist assemblages are not affected by area or edge effects, while most generalist assemblages proliferate at edges of small remnants. Nevertheless, differences in tree assemblages, especially among smaller trees, Suggest that observed patterns are unlikely to be stable over time. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large-scale ecological restoration of high-diversity tropical forests in SE Brazil

The complex interactions among endangered ecosystems, landowners` interests, and different models of land tenure and use, constitute an important series of challenges for those seeking to maintain and restore biodiversity and augment the flow of ecosystem services. Over the past 10 years, we have developed a data-based approach to address these challenges and to achieve medium and large-scale ecological restoration of riparian areas on private lands in the state of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. Given varying motivations for ecological restoration, the location of riparian areas within landholdings, environmental zoning of different riparian areas, and best-practice restoration methods were developed for each situation. A total of 32 ongoing projects, covering 527,982 ha, were evaluated in large sugarcane farms and small mixed farms, and six different restoration techniques have been developed to help upscale the effort. Small mixed farms had higher portions of land requiring protection as riparian areas (13.3%), and lower forest cover of riparian areas (18.3%), than large sugarcane farms (10.0% and 36.9%, respectively for riparian areas and forest cover values). In both types of farms, forest fragments required some degree of restoration. Historical anthropogenic degradation has compromised forest ecosystem structure and functioning, despite their high-diversity of native tree and shrub species. Notably, land use patterns in riparian areas differed markedly. Large sugarcane farms had higher portions of riparian areas occupied by highly mechanized agriculture, abandoned fields, and anthropogenic wet fields created by siltation in water courses. In contrast, in small mixed crop farms, low or non-mechanized agriculture and pasturelands were predominant. Despite these differences, plantations of native tree species covering the entire area was by far the main restoration method needed both by large sugarcane farms (76.0%) and small mixed farms (92.4%), in view of the low resilience of target sites, reduced forest cover, and high fragmentation, all of which limit the potential for autogenic restoration. We propose that plantations should be carried out with a high-diversity of native species in order to create biologically viable restored forests, and to assist long-term biodiversity persistence at the landscape scale. Finally, we propose strategies to integrate the political, socio-economic and methodological aspects needed to upscale restoration efforts in tropical forest regions throughout Latin America and elsewhere. (C) 2010 Elsevier BA/. All rights reserved.

Climate perspective on the large-scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

The landfall of Cyclone Catarina on the Brazilian coast in March 2004 became known as the first documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, promoting a new view oil how large-scale features can contribute to tropical transition. The aim of this paper is to put the large-scale circulation associated with Catarina`s transition in climate perspective. This is discussed in the light of a robust pattern of spatial correlations between thermodynamic and dynamic variables of importance for hurricane formation. A discussion on how transition mechanisms respond to the present-day circulation is presented. These associations help in understanding why Catarina was formed in a region previously thought to be hurricane-free. Catarina developed over a large-scale area of thermodynamically favourable air/sea temperature contrast. This aspect explains the paradox that such a rare system developed when the sea surface temperature was slightly below average. But, although thermodynamics played an important role, it is apparent that Catarina would not have formed without the key dynamic interplay triggered by a high latitude blocking. The blocking was associated with an extreme positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) both hemispherically and locally, and the nearby area where Catarina developed is found to be more cyclonic during the positive phase of the SAM. A conceptual model is developed and a `South Atlantic index` is introduced as a useful diagnostic of potential conditions leading to tropical transition in the area, where large-scale indices indicate trends towards more favourable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Enzymatic Resolution of Racemic Sulcatol by Lipase from Candida Antarctica in a Large Scale

Large scale enzymatic resolution of racemic sulcatol 2 has been useful for stereoselective biocatalysis. This reaction was fast and selective, using vinyl acetate as donor of acyl group and lipase from Candida antarctica (CALB) as catalyst. The large scale reaction (5.0 g, 39 mmol) afforded high optical purities for S-(+)-sulcatol 2 and R-(+)-sulcatyl acetate 3, i.e., ee > 99 per cent and good yields (45 per cent) within a short time (40 min). Thermodynamic parameters for the chemoesterification of sulcatol 2 by vinyl acetate were evaluated. The enthalpy and Gibbs free energy values of this reaction were negative, indicating that this process is exothermic and spontaneous which is in agreement with the reaction obtained enzymatically.

Understanding the Influences of Spatial Patterns on N Availability Within the Brazilian Amazon Forest

Nitrogen variations at different spatial scales and integrated across functional groups were addressed for lowland tropical forests in the Brazilian Amazon as follows: (1) how does N availability vary across the region over different spatial scales (regional x landscape scale); ( 2) how are these variations in N availability integrated across plant functional groups ( legume 9 non-legume trees). Leaf N, P, and Ca concentrations as well the leaf N isotope ratios (delta(15)N) from a large set of legume and non-legume tree species were measured. Legumes had higher foliar N/Ca ratios than non-legumes, consistent with the high energetic costs in plant growth associated with higher foliar P/Ca ratios found in legumes than in non-legumes. At the regional level, foliar delta(15)N decreased with increasing rainfall. At the landscape level, N availability was higher in the forests on clayey soils on the plateau than in forests on sandier soils. The isotope as well as the non-isotope data relationships here documented, explain to a large extent the variation in delta(15)N signatures across gradients of rainfall and soil. Although at the regional level, the precipitation regime is a major determinant of differences in N availability, at the landscape level, under the same precipitation regime, soil type seems to be a major factor influencing the availability of N in the Brazilian Amazon forest.

Node-Depth Encoding and Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm Applied to Large-Scale Distribution System Reconfiguration

The power loss reduction in distribution systems (DSs) is a nonlinear and multiobjective problem. Service restoration in DSs is even computationally hard since it additionally requires a solution in real-time. Both DS problems are computationally complex. For large-scale networks, the usual problem formulation has thousands of constraint equations. The node-depth encoding (NDE) enables a modeling of DSs problems that eliminates several constraint equations from the usual formulation, making the problem solution simpler. On the other hand, a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (EA) based on subpopulation tables adequately models several objectives and constraints, enabling a better exploration of the search space. The combination of the multiobjective EA with NDE (MEAN) results in the proposed approach for solving DSs problems for large-scale networks. Simulation results have shown the MEAN is able to find adequate restoration plans for a real DS with 3860 buses and 632 switches in a running time of 0.68 s. Moreover, the MEAN has shown a sublinear running time in function of the system size. Tests with networks ranging from 632 to 5166 switches indicate that the MEAN can find network configurations corresponding to a power loss reduction of 27.64% for very large networks requiring relatively low running time.

Planning and operation of large-scale water distribution systems with preemptive priorities

This paper describes the development of an optimization model for the management and operation of a large-scale, multireservoir water supply distribution system with preemptive priorities. The model considers multiobjectives and hedging rules. During periods of drought, when water supply is insufficient to meet the planned demand, appropriate rationing factors are applied to reduce water supply. In this paper, a water distribution system is formulated as a network and solved by the GAMS modeling system for mathematical programming and optimization. A user-friendly interface is developed to facilitate the manipulation of data and to generate graphs and tables for decision makers. The optimization model and its interface form a decision support system (DSS), which can be used to configure a water distribution system to facilitate capacity expansion and reliability studies. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the utility and versatility of the developed DSS under different supply and demand scenarios, including applications to one of the largest water supply systems in the world, the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area Water Supply Distribution System in Brazil.