Revisiting the interest rate puzzle

This article makes a connection between Lucas` (1978) asset pricing model and the macroeconomic dynamics for some selected countries. Both the relative risk aversion and the impatience for postponing consumption by synthesizing the investor behaviour can help to understand some key macroeconomic issues across countries, such as the savings decision and the real interest rate. I find that the government consumption makes worse the so-called `equity premium-interest rate puzzle`. The first root of the quadratic function for explaining the real interest rate can produce this puzzle, but not the second root. Thus, Mehra and Prescott (1985) identified only one possible solution.

Prediction of the economic activity from the short and long-term interest rate differential: new evidences in Chile and the United States of America cases

The purpose of this work is to verify the stability of the relationship between real activity and interest rate spread. The test is based on Chen (1988) and Osorio and Galea (2006). The analysis is applied to Chile and the United States, from 1980 to 1999. In general, in both cases the relationship was statistically significant in early 80s, but a break point is found in both countries during that decades, suggesting that the relationship depends on the monetary rule follow by the Central Bank.

Pricing corporate bonds in Brazil: 2000 to 2004

This paper analyzes the factors that influence the issuing price of debentures in Brazil in the period from year 2000 to 2004, applying a factor model, in which exogenous variables explain return and price behavior. The variables in this study include: rating, choice of index, maturity, country risk, basic interest rate, long-term and short-term rate spread, the stock market index, and the foreign exchange rate. Results indicate that the index variable, probability of default and bond`s maturity influence pricing and points out associations of long-term bonds with better rating issues. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A general hazard model for lifetime data in the presence of cure rate

Historically, the cure rate model has been used for modeling time-to-event data within which a significant proportion of patients are assumed to be cured of illnesses, including breast cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, prostate cancer, melanoma, and head and neck cancer. Perhaps the most popular type of cure rate model is the mixture model introduced by Berkson and Gage [1]. In this model, it is assumed that a certain proportion of the patients are cured, in the sense that they do not present the event of interest during a long period of time and can found to be immune to the cause of failure under study. In this paper, we propose a general hazard model which accommodates comprehensive families of cure rate models as particular cases, including the model proposed by Berkson and Gage. The maximum-likelihood-estimation procedure is discussed. A simulation study analyzes the coverage probabilities of the asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters. A real data set on children exposed to HIV by vertical transmission illustrates the methodology.

Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models

In this paper, we develop a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow a compound weighted Poisson distribution. This model is more flexible in terms of dispersion than the promotion time cure model. Moreover, it gives an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of event of interest as it includes a destructive process of the initial risk factors in a competitive scenario. In other words, what is recorded is only from the undamaged portion of the original number of risk factors.

COM-Poisson cure rate survival models and an application to a cutaneous melanoma data

In this paper, we develop a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution. This model includes as special cases some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature. Next, we discuss the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of this cure rate survival model. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of this model by applying it to a real cutaneous melanoma data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

VSImG: A high frame rate bitmap based display system for neuroscience research

This paper describes a visual stimulus generator (VSImG) capable of displaying a gray-scale, 256 x 256 x 8 bitmap image with a frame rate of 500 Hz using a boustrophedonic scanning technique. It is designed for experiments with motion-sensitive neurons of the fly`s visual system, where the flicker fusion frequency of the photoreceptors can reach up to 500 Hz. Devices with such a high frame rate are not commercially available, but are required, if sensory systems with high flicker fusion frequency are to be studied. The implemented hardware approach gives us complete real-time control of the displacement sequence and provides all the signals needed to drive an electrostatic deflection display. With the use of analog signals, very small high-resolution displacements, not limited by the image`s pixel size can be obtained. Very slow image displacements with visually imperceptible steps can also be generated. This can be of interest for other vision research experiments. Two different stimulus files can be used simultaneously, allowing the system to generate X-Y displacements on one display or independent movements on two displays as long as they share the same bitmap image. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Periodontal treatment during pregnancy decreases the rate of adverse pregnancy outcome: a controlled clinical trial

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of non-surgical treatment of periodontal disease during the second trimester of gestation on adverse pregnancy outcomes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Pregnant patients during the 1st and 2nd trimesters at antenatal care in a Public Health Center were divided into 2 groups: NIG - "no intervention" (n=17) or IG- "intervention" (n=16). IG patients were submitted to a non-surgical periodontal treatment performed by a single periodontist consisting of scaling and root planning (SRP), professional prophylaxis (PROPH) and oral hygiene instruction (OHI). NIG received PROPH and OHI during pregnancy and were referred for treatment after delivery. Periodontal evaluation was performed by a single trained examiner, blinded to periodontal treatment, according to probing depth (PD), clinical attachment level (CAL), plaque index (PI) and sulcular bleeding index (SBI) at baseline and 35 gestational weeks-28 days post-partum. Primary adverse pregnancy outcomes were preterm birth (<37 weeks), low birth weight (<2.5 kg), late abortion (14-24 weeks) or abortion (<14 weeks). The results obtained were statistically evaluated according to OR, unpaired t test and paired t test at 5% signifcance level. RESULTS: No signifcant differences were observed between groups at baseline examination. Periodontal treatment resulted in stabilization of CAL and PI (p>0.05) at IG and worsening of all periodontal parameters at NIG (p<0.0001), except for PI. Signifcant differences in periodontal conditions of IG and NIG were observed at 2nd examination (p<0.001). The rate of adverse pregnancy outcomes was 47.05% in NIG and 6.25% in IG. Periodontal treatment during pregnancy was associated to a decreased risk of developing adverse pregnancy outcomes [OR=13.50; CI: 1.47-123.45; p=0.02]. CONCLUSIONS: Periodontal treatment during the second trimester of gestation contributes to decrease adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Comparison of radial growth rate of the mutualistic fungus of Atta sexdens rubropilosa forel in two culture media

In vitro culture of the mutualistic fungus of leaf-cutting ants is troublesome due to its low growth rate, which leads to storage problems and contaminants accumulation. This paper aims at comparing the radial growth rate of the mutualistic fungus of Atta sexdens rubropilosa Forel in two different culture media (Pagnocca B and MEA LP). Although total MEA LP radial growth was greater all along the bioassay, no significant difference was detected between growth efficiencies of the two media. Previous evidences of low growth rate for this fungus were confirmed. Since these data cannot point greater efficiency of one culture medium over the other, MEA LP medium is indicated for in vitro studies with this mutualistic fungus due its simpler composition and translucent color, making the analysis easier.

Dependence of the crossover exponent with the diffusion rate in the generalized contact process model

We study how the crossover exponent, phi, between the directed percolation (DP) and compact directed percolation (CDP) behaves as a function of the diffusion rate in a model that generalizes the contact process. Our conclusions are based in results pointed by perturbative series expansions and numerical simulations, and are consistent with a value phi = 2 for finite diffusion rates and phi = 1 in the limit of infinite diffusion rate.

Growth parameters and mortality rate of the Scomber japonicus peruanus (Jordán & Hubb, 1925) along the Peruvian coast, South Pacific

The growth parameters and the mortality rates of the Scomber japonicus peruanus (Chub mackerel) were studied based on monthly data of frequency of fork length classes obtained from commercial landings off the Peruvian coast from 1996 to 1998. The asymptotic body length and growth rate values obtained by the ELEFAN I (Electronic Length Frequency Analysis) ranged from 40.20 cm to 42.20 cm and from 0.38 to 0.39, respectively. The oscillation amplitude was 0.60; the Winter point values varied from 0.50 to 0.60 and the performance index from 2.79 to 2.84. The total mortality rate of the Chub mackerel obtained by the linearized catch curve oscillated between 1.68 and 3.35. The rate of fishing mortality varied from 1.16 to 2.78 and the exploitation rate from 0.68 to 0.84. The annual rate of natural mortality estimated by the Pauly's method ranged from 0.52 to 0.53. The results obtained allow us to conclude that the longevity of the Chub mackerel was slightly over seven years.

Density and survival rate of Culex quinquefasciatus at Parque Ecológico do Tietê, São Paulo, Brazil

Parity rate, gonotrophic cycle length, and density of a Culex quinquefasciatus female population was estimated at the Parque Ecológico do Tietê (PET), São Paulo, Brazil. Adult Cx. quinquefasciatus females were collected from vegetation along the edges of a polluted drainage canal with the use of a battery-powered backpack aspirator from September to November 2005 and from February to April 2006. We examined 255 Cx. quinquefasciatus ovaries to establish the parity rate of 0.22 and determined the gonotrophic cycle length under laboratory conditions to be 3 and 4 days. From these data, we calculated the Cx. quinquefasciatus survival rate to be 0.60 and 0.68 per day. Density of the Cx. quinquefasciatus female (5.71 females per m2) was estimated based on a population size of 28,810 individuals divided by the sampled area of 5,040 m2. Results of all experiments indicate medium survivorship and high density of the Cx. quinquefasciatus female population. This species is epidemiologically relevant in the PET area and should be a target of the vector control program of São Paulo municipality

Turbulence in collisionless plasmas: statistical analysis from numerical simulations with pressure anisotropy

In recent years, we have experienced increasing interest in the understanding of the physical properties of collisionless plasmas, mostly because of the large number of astrophysical environments (e. g. the intracluster medium (ICM)) containing magnetic fields that are strong enough to be coupled with the ionized gas and characterized by densities sufficiently low to prevent the pressure isotropization with respect to the magnetic line direction. Under these conditions, a new class of kinetic instabilities arises, such as firehose and mirror instabilities, which have been studied extensively in the literature. Their role in the turbulence evolution and cascade process in the presence of pressure anisotropy, however, is still unclear. In this work, we present the first statistical analysis of turbulence in collisionless plasmas using three-dimensional numerical simulations and solving double-isothermal magnetohydrodynamic equations with the Chew-Goldberger-Low laws closure (CGL-MHD). We study models with different initial conditions to account for the firehose and mirror instabilities and to obtain different turbulent regimes. We found that the CGL-MHD subsonic and supersonic turbulences show small differences compared to the MHD models in most cases. However, in the regimes of strong kinetic instabilities, the statistics, i.e. the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of density and velocity, are very different. In subsonic models, the instabilities cause an increase in the dispersion of density, while the dispersion of velocity is increased by a large factor in some cases. Moreover, the spectra of density and velocity show increased power at small scales explained by the high growth rate of the instabilities. Finally, we calculated the structure functions of velocity and density fluctuations in the local reference frame defined by the direction of magnetic lines. The results indicate that in some cases the instabilities significantly increase the anisotropy of fluctuations. These results, even though preliminary and restricted to very specific conditions, show that the physical properties of turbulence in collisionless plasmas, as those found in the ICM, may be very different from what has been largely believed.