Using non-homogeneous Poisson models with multiple change-points to estimate the number of ozone exceedances in Mexico City

In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analysis of contamination of endodontic absorbent paper points

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to assess the contamination status of endodontic absorbent paper points from sterilized or not sterilized commercial packs, as well as paper points exposed to the dental office environment. METHODS: Twenty absorbent paper points were evaluated for contamination status packed under different conditions: commercial/sterilized pack, commercial/non-sterilized pack, exposed to the clinical environment, and intentionally contaminated (positive control). Contamination was determined qualitatively and quantitatively by aerobiosis, capnophilic growth, and pour plate. The Petri dishes were analyzed with a colony counter, and the results were expressed as colony-forming units. The data were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis test (α=0.05). RESULTS: No difference in colony-forming units was found among the groups of endodontic absorbent paper points. All groups were contaminated by fungi and bacteria. CONCLUSION: It can be concluded that the sterilization of absorbent endodontic paper points before clinical use should be recommended regardless of commercial presentation

Microbiological indicators for the assessment of performance in the hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) system in meat lasagna production

The HACCP system is being increasingly used to ensure food safety. This study investigated the validation of the control measures technique in order to establish performance indicators of this HACCP system in the manufacturing process of Lasagna Bolognese (meat lasagna). Samples were collected along the manufacturing process as a whole, before and after the CCPs. The following microorganism s indicator (MIs) was assessed: total mesophile and faecal coliform counts. The same MIs were analyzed in the final product, as well as, the microbiological standards required by the current legislation. A significant reduction in the total mesophile count was observed after cooking (p < 0.001). After storage, there was a numerical, however non-significant change in the MI count. Faecal coliform counts were also significantly reduced (p < 0.001) after cooking. We were able to demonstrate that the HACCP system allowed us to meet the standards set by both, the company and the Brazilian regulations, proved by the reduction in the established indicators

A simplified minimal residual disease polymerase chain reaction method at early treatment points can stratify children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia into good and poor outcome groups

Background Minimal residual disease is an important independent prognostic factor in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia. The classical detection methods such as multiparameter flow cytometry and real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis are expensive, time-consuming and complex, and require considerable technical expertise. Design and Methods We analyzed 229 consecutive children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated according to the GBTLI-99 protocol at three different Brazilian centers. Minimal residual disease was analyzed in bone marrow samples at diagnosis and on days 14 and 28 by conventional homo/heteroduplex polymerase chain reaction using a simplified approach with consensus primers for IG and TCR gene rearrangements. Results At least one marker was detected by polymerase chain reaction in 96.4%, of the patients. By combining the minimal residual disease results obtained on days 14 and 28, three different prognostic groups were identified: minimal residual disease negative on days 14 and 28, positive on day 14/negative on day 28, and positive on both. Five-year event-free survival rates were 85%, 75.6%,, and 27.8%, respectively (p<0.0001). The same pattern of stratification held true for the group of intensively treated children. When analyzed in other subgroups of patients such as those at standard and high risk at diagnosis, those with positive B-derived CD10, patients positive for the TEL/AML1 transcript, and patients in morphological remission on a day 28 marrow, the event-free survival rate was found to be significantly lower in patients with positive minimal residual disease on day 28. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the detection of minimal residual disease on day 28 is the most significant prognostic factor. Conclusions This simplified strategy for detection of minimal residual disease was feasible, reproducible, cheaper and simpler when compared with other methods, and allowed powerful discrimination between children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia with a good and poor outcome.

FLOWS WITHOUT WANDERING POINTS ON COMPACT CONNECTED SURFACES

Given a compact 2 dimensional manifold M we classify all continuous flows phi without wandering points on M. This classification is performed by finding finitely many pairwise disjoint open phi-invariant subsets {U(1), U(2), ..., U(n)} of M such that U(i=1)(n) (U(i)) over bar = M and each U(i) is either a suspension of an interval exchange transformation, or a maximal open cylinder made up of closed trajectories of phi.

Character of magnetic excitations in a quasi-one-dimensional antiferromagnet near the quantum critical points: Impact on magnetoacoustic properties

We report results of magnetoacoustic studies in the quantum spin-chain magnet NiCl(2)-4SC(NH(2))(2) (DTN) having a field-induced ordered antiferromagnetic (AF) phase. In the vicinity of the quantum critical points (QCPs) the acoustic c(33) mode manifests a pronounced softening accompanied by energy dissipation of the sound wave. The acoustic anomalies are traced up to T > T(N), where the thermodynamic properties are determined by fermionic magnetic excitations, the ""hallmark"" of one-dimensional (1D) spin chains. On the other hand, as established in earlier studies, the AF phase in DTN is governed by bosonic magnetic excitations. Our results suggest the presence of a crossover from a 1D fermionic to a three-dimensional bosonic character of the magnetic excitations in DTN in the vicinity of the QCPs.

Precise determination of quantum critical points by the violation of the entropic area law

Finite-size scaling analysis turns out to be a powerful tool to calculate the phase diagram as well as the critical properties of two-dimensional classical statistical mechanics models and quantum Hamiltonians in one dimension. The most used method to locate quantum critical points is the so-called crossing method, where the estimates are obtained by comparing the mass gaps of two distinct lattice sizes. The success of this method is due to its simplicity and the ability to provide accurate results even considering relatively small lattice sizes. In this paper, we introduce an estimator that locates quantum critical points by exploring the known distinct behavior of the entanglement entropy in critical and noncritical systems. As a benchmark test, we use this new estimator to locate the critical point of the quantum Ising chain and the critical line of the spin-1 Blume-Capel quantum chain. The tricritical point of this last model is also obtained. Comparison with the standard crossing method is also presented. The method we propose is simple to implement in practice, particularly in density matrix renormalization group calculations, and provides us, like the crossing method, amazingly accurate results for quite small lattice sizes. Our applications show that the proposed method has several advantages, as compared with the standard crossing method, and we believe it will become popular in future numerical studies.

Intercepting moving targets: does memory from practice in a specific condition of target displacement affect movement timing?

This investigation aimed at assessing the extent to which memory from practice in a specific condition of target displacement modulates temporal errors and movement timing of interceptive movements. We compared two groups practicing with certainty of future target velocity either in unchanged target velocity or in target velocity decrease. Following practice, both experimental groups were probed in the situations of unchanged target velocity and target velocity decrease either under the context of certainty or uncertainty about target velocity. Results from practice showed similar improvement of temporal accuracy between groups, revealing that target velocity decrease did not disturb temporal movement organization when fully predictable. Analysis of temporal errors in the probing trials indicated that both groups had higher timing accuracy in velocity decrease in comparison with unchanged velocity. Effect of practice was detected by increased temporal accuracy of the velocity decrease group in situations of decreased velocity; a trend consistent with the expected effect of practice was observed for temporal errors in the unchanged velocity group and in movement initiation at a descriptive level. An additional point of theoretical interest was the fast adaptation in both groups to a target velocity pattern different from that practiced. These points are discussed under the perspective of integration of vision and motor control by means of an internal forward model of external motion.

Ringo: Discordance between the molecular and clinical manifestation in a Golden Retriever Muscular Dystrophy dog

Of the various genetic homologues to Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD), the Golden Retriever Muscular Dystrophy (GRMD) dog, which presents a variable but usually severe and progressive muscle weakness, has the closest relevance to DMD in both clinical severity and histopathological change. Among 77 GRMD dogs born in our colony in Brazil, we have identified a very mildly affected dog, Ringo, born July 2003. Among his descendants, at least one male, Suflair, is also showing a mild course. In an attempt to better characterize these two dogs, we studied the pattern of muscle proteins expression in Ringo and Suflair, as compared to severely affected and normal control dogs. Dystrophin was absent in both and utrophin was overexpressed in a pattern similar to the observed in severely affected dogs. Understanding the mechanism that is protecting Ringo and Suflair from the deleterious effect of the dystrophin gene mutation is of utmost interest, In addition it points out that the clinical impact of therapeutic trials should be interpreted with caution. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Screening of Food Grade Lipases to be Used in Esterification and Interesterification Reactions of Industrial Interest

Seven food grade commercially available lipases were immobilized by covalent binding on polysiloxane-polyvinyl alcohol (POS-PVA) hybrid composite and screened to mediate reactions of industrial interest. The synthesis of butyl butyrate and the interesterification of tripalmitin with triolein were chosen as model reactions. The highest esterification activity (240.63 mu M/g min) was achieved by Candida rugosa lipase, while the highest interesterification yield (31%, in 72 h) was achieved by lipase from Rhizopus oryzae, with the production of about 15 mM of the triglycerides C(50) and C(52). This lipase also showed a good performance in butyl butyrate synthesis, with an esterification activity of 171.14 mu M/g min. The results demonstrated the feasibility of using lipases from C. rugosa for esterification and R. oryzae lipase for both esterification and interesterification reactions.

An estimate of biometric parameters in eucalyptus clone plantations in Southern Bahia: an application of the airborne laser scanning (ALS) technology

The application of airborne laser scanning (ALS) technologies in forest inventories has shown great potential to improve the efficiency of forest planning activities. Precise estimates, fast assessment and relatively low complexity can explain the good results in terms of efficiency. The evolution of GPS and inertial measurement technologies, as well as the observed lower assessment costs when these technologies are applied to large scale studies, can explain the increasing dissemination of ALS technologies. The observed good quality of results can be expressed by estimates of volumes and basal area with estimated error below the level of 8.4%, depending on the size of sampled area, the quantity of laser pulses per square meter and the number of control plots. This paper analyzes the potential of an ALS assessment to produce certain forest inventory statistics in plantations of cloned Eucalyptus spp with precision equal of superior to conventional methods. The statistics of interest in this case were: volume, basal area, mean height and dominant trees mean height. The ALS flight for data assessment covered two strips of approximately 2 by 20 Km, in which clouds of points were sampled in circular plots with a radius of 13 m. Plots were sampled in different parts of the strips to cover different stand ages. The clouds of points generated by the ALS assessment: overall height mean, standard error, five percentiles (height under which we can find 10%, 30%, 50%,70% and 90% of the ALS points above ground level in the cloud), and density of points above ground level in each percentile were calculated. The ALS statistics were used in regression models to estimate mean diameter, mean height, mean height of dominant trees, basal area and volume. Conventional forest inventory sample plots provided real data. For volume, an exploratory assessment involving different combinations of ALS statistics allowed for the definition of the most promising relationships and fitting tests based on well known forest biometric models. The models based on ALS statistics that produced the best results involved: the 30% percentile to estimate mean diameter (R(2)=0,88 and MQE%=0,0004); the 10% and 90% percentiles to estimate mean height (R(2)=0,94 and MQE%=0,0003); the 90% percentile to estimate dominant height (R(2)=0,96 and MQE%=0,0003); the 10% percentile and mean height of ALS points to estimate basal area (R(2)=0,92 and MQE%=0,0016); and, to estimate volume, age and the 30% and 90% percentiles (R(2)=0,95 MQE%=0,002). Among the tested forest biometric models, the best fits were provided by the modified Schumacher using age and the 90% percentile, modified Clutter using age, mean height of ALS points and the 70% percentile, and modified Buckman using age, mean height of ALS points and the 10% percentile.

Conservation of dual-targeted proteins in Arabidopsis and rice points to a similar pattern of gene-family evolution

Gene duplication followed by acquisition of specific targeting information and dual targeting were evolutionary strategies enabling organelles to cope with overlapping functions. We examined the evolutionary trend of dual-targeted single-gene products in Arabidopsis and rice genomes. The number of paralogous proteins encoded by gene families and the dual-targeted orthologous proteins were analysed. The number of dual-targeted proteins and the corresponding gene-family sizes were similar in Arabidopsis and rice irrespective of genome sizes. We show that dual targeting of methionine aminopeptidase, monodehydroascorbate reductase, glutamyl-tRNA synthetase, and tyrosyl-tRNA synthetase was maintained despite occurrence of whole-genome duplications in Arabidopsis and rice as well as a polyploidization followed by a diploidization event (gene loss) in the latter.

Pricing corporate bonds in Brazil: 2000 to 2004

This paper analyzes the factors that influence the issuing price of debentures in Brazil in the period from year 2000 to 2004, applying a factor model, in which exogenous variables explain return and price behavior. The variables in this study include: rating, choice of index, maturity, country risk, basic interest rate, long-term and short-term rate spread, the stock market index, and the foreign exchange rate. Results indicate that the index variable, probability of default and bond`s maturity influence pricing and points out associations of long-term bonds with better rating issues. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e. g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.

Revisiting the interest rate puzzle

This article makes a connection between Lucas` (1978) asset pricing model and the macroeconomic dynamics for some selected countries. Both the relative risk aversion and the impatience for postponing consumption by synthesizing the investor behaviour can help to understand some key macroeconomic issues across countries, such as the savings decision and the real interest rate. I find that the government consumption makes worse the so-called `equity premium-interest rate puzzle`. The first root of the quadratic function for explaining the real interest rate can produce this puzzle, but not the second root. Thus, Mehra and Prescott (1985) identified only one possible solution.