Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inter-individual variability in temporal structure of the basketball shoot

This study analyzed inter-individual variability of the temporal structure applied in basketball throwing. Ten experienced male athletes in basketball throwing were filmed and a number of kinematic movement parameters analyzed. A biomechanical model provided the relative timing of the shoulder, elbow and wrist joint movements. Inter-individual variability was analyzed using sequencing and relative timing of tem phases of the throw. To compare the variability of the movement phases between subjects a discriminant analysis and an ANOVA were applied. The Tukey test was applied to determine where differences occurred. The significance level was p = 0.05. Inter-individual variability was explained by three concomitant factors: (a) a precision control strategy, (b) a velocity control strategy and (c) intrinsic characteristics of the subjects. Therefore, despite the fact that some actions are common to the basketball throwing pattern each performed demonstrated particular and individual characteristics.

Utility of Ictal Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography in Mesial Temporal Lobe Epilepsy With Hippocampal Atrophy: A Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND: The development of newer diagnostic technologies has reduced the need for invasive electroencephalographic (EEG) studies in identifying the epileptogenic zone, especially in adult patients with mesial temporal lobe epilepsy and hippocampal sclerosis (MTLE-HS). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate ictal single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) in the evaluation and treatment of patients with MTLE-HS. METHODS: MTLE patients were randomly assigned to those with (SPECT, n = 124) and without ictal SPECT (non-SPECT, n = 116) in an intent-to-treat protocol. Primary end points were the proportion of patients with invasive EEG studies, and those offered surgery. Secondary end points were the length of hospital stay and the proportion of patients with secondarily generalized seizures (SGS) during video-EEG, postsurgical seizure outcome, and hospital cost. RESULTS: The proportion of patients offered surgery was similar in the SPECT (85%) and non-SPECT groups (81%), as well as the proportion that had invasive EEG studies (27% vs 23%). The mean duration of hospital stay was 1 day longer for the SPECT group (P < 0.001). SGS occurred in 51% of the SPECT and 26% of the non-SPECT group (P < 0.001). The cost of the presurgical evaluation was 35% higher for the SPECT compared with the non-SPECT group (P < 0.001). The proportion of patients seizure-free after surgery was similar in the SPECT (59%) compared with non-SPECT group (54%). CONCLUSION: Ictal-SPECT did not add localizing value beyond what was provided by EEG-video telemetry and structural MRI that altered the surgical decision and outcome for MTLE-HS patients. Ictal-SPECT increased hospital stay was associated with increased costs and a higher chance of SGS during video-EEG monitoring. These findings support the notion that a protocol including ictal SPECT is equivalent to one without SPECT in the presurgical evaluation of adult patients with MTLE-HS.

Influência da largura do septo inter-radicular sobre a estabilidade dos mini-implantes

OBJETIVO: este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a influência da largura do septo inter-radicular no local de inserção de mini-implantes autoperfurantes sobre o grau de estabilidade desses dispositivos de ancoragem. MÉTODOS: a amostra consistiu de 40 mini-implantes inseridos entre as raízes do primeiro molar e segundo pré-molar superiores de 21 pacientes, com o intuito de fornecer ancoragem para retração anterior. A largura do septo no local de inserção (LSI) foi mensurada nas radiografias pós-cirúrgicas e, sob esse aspecto, os mini-implantes foram divididos em dois grupos: grupo 1 (áreas críticas, LSI<3mm) e grupo 2 (áreas não críticas, LSI>3mm). A estabilidade dos mini-implantes foi avaliada mensalmente pela quantificação do grau de mobilidade e a partir dessa variável foi calculada a proporção de sucesso. Avaliou-se também: a quantidade de placa, altura de inserção, grau de sensibilidade e período de observação. RESULTADOS: os resultados obtidos demonstraram que não houve diferença estatisticamente significativa para o grau de mobilidade e proporção de sucesso entre os mini-implantes inseridos em septos de largura mesiodistal crítica e não crítica. A proporção de sucesso total encontrada foi de 90% e nenhuma variável demonstrou estar relacionada ao insucesso dos mini-implantes. No entanto, observou-se maior sensibilidade nos pacientes cujos mini-implantes apresentavam mobilidade, e que a falha desses dispositivos de ancoragem ocorria logo após sua inserção. CONCLUSÃO: a largura do septo inter-radicular no local de inserção não interferiu na estabilidade dos mini-implantes autoperfurantes avaliados neste estudo.

Evolução temporal da dengue no município de Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, 1994 a 2003

Este estudo caracteriza-se epidemiológico-descritivo com objetivo de descrever a evolução temporal dos casos de dengue em Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, no período de 1994 a 2003, segundo mês de ocorrência e sexo. Os dados foram obtidos junto às fichas de notificação compulsória fornecidas pela Vigilância Epidemiológica da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do município. Foram obtidos os coeficientes de incidência por 100.000 habitantes, segundo estimativas populacionais do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. O município viveu uma epidemia de dengue no ano de 2001, quando o coeficiente de incidência chegou a 619,65 casos/100.000 habitantes, sendo que dentre os 5.553 casos encontrados no período estudado, 0,07% ocorreram no ano de 1994, 3,68% em 1995, 4,52% em 1996, 2,40% em 1997, 1,82% em 1998, 5,73% em 1999, 3,75% em 2000, 57,37% em 2001, 6,25% em 2002 e, 14,39% em 2003 . Os meses do ano de maior ocorrência da doença foram de janeiro a maio. Em relação à variável sexo, a proporção entre o número de casos foi de aproximadamente 1:1, mostrando pequenas flutuações de casos de dengue entre homens e mulheres, para todo período estudado. Os resultados apontam a necessidade do desenvolvimento de estudos sobre a temática e reforçam o papel das instituições de ensino na questão da dengue no nosso país.

Temporal variation of the phytoplankton community at short sampling intervals in the Mundaú reservoir, Northeastern Brazil

The aim of this study was to determine how abiotic factors drive the phytoplankton community in a water supply reservoir within short sampling intervals. Samples were collected at the subsurface (0.1 m) and bottom of limnetic (8 m) and littoral (2 m) zones in both the dry and rainy seasons. The following abiotic variables were analyzed: water temperature, dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, turbidity, pH, total nitrogen, nitrite, nitrate, total phosphorus, total dissolved phosphorus and orthophosphate. Phytoplankton biomass was determined from biovolume values. The role abiotic variables play in the dynamics of phytoplankton species was determined by means of Canonical Correspondence Analysis. Algae biomass ranged from 1.17×10(4) to 9.21×10(4) µg.L-1; cyanobacteria had biomass values ranging from 1.07×10(4) to 8.21×10(4) µg.L-1. High availability of phosphorous, nitrogen limitation, alkaline pH and thermal stability all favored cyanobacteria blooms, particularly during the dry season. Temperature, pH, total phosphorous and turbidity were key factors in characterizing the phytoplankton community between sampling times and stations. Of the species studied, Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii populations were dominant in the phytoplankton in both the dry and rainy seasons. We conclude that the phytoplankton was strongly influenced by abiotic variables, particularly in relation to seasonal distribution patterns.

Psychophysical measurements of luminance and chromatic spatial and temporal contrast sensitivity in Duchenne muscular dystrophy

In children with Duchenne muscular dystrophy, color vision losses have been related to dystrophin deletions downstream of exon 30, which affect a dystrophin isoform, Dp260, present in the retina. To further evaluate visual function in DMD children, we measured spatial, temporal, and chromatic red-green and blue-yellow contrast sensitivity in two groups of DMD children with gene deletion downstream and upstream of exon 30. Psychophysical spatial contrast sensitivity was measured for low, middle, and high spatial frequencies with achromatic gratings and for low and middle frequencies with red-green and blue-yellow chromatic gratings. Temporal contrast sensitivity was also measured with achromatic stimuli. A reduction in sensitivity at all spatial luminance contrasts was found for the DMD patients with deletion downstream of exon 30. Similar results were found for temporal luminance contrast sensitivity. Red-green chromatic contrast sensitivity was reduced in DMD children with deletion downstream of exon 30, whereas blue-yellow chromatic contrast sensitivity showed no significant differences. We conclude that visual function is impaired in DMD children. Furthermore, we report a genotype-phenotype relationship because the visual impairment occurred in children with deletion downstream but not upstream of exon 30, affecting the retinal isoform of dystrophin Dp260.

Spatial and temporal distribution of fish in Palmas bay, Ubatuba, Brazil

The aim of this study was to analyze the distribution and abundance of the fish fauna of Palmas bay on Anchieta Island in southeastern Brazil. Specimens were caught in the summer and winter of 1992, using an otter trawl at three locations in the bay. The specimens were caught in both the nighttime and daytime. Data on the water temperature and salinity were recorded for the characterization of the predominant water mass in the region, and sediment samples were taken for granulometric analysis. A total of 7 656 specimens (79 species), with a total weight of approximately 300 kg, were recorded. The most abundant species were Eucinostomus argenteus, Ctenosciaena gracilicirrhus, Haemulon steindachneri, Eucinostomus gula and Diapterus rhombeus, which together accounted for more than 73% of the sample. In general, the ecological indices showed no differences in the composition of species for the abiotic variables analyzed. The multivariate analysis showed that the variations in the distribution of the fish fauna were mainly associated with intra-annual differences in temperature and salinity, resulting from the presence of South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) in the area during the summer. The analysis also showed an association with the type of bottom and a lesser association with respect to the night/day periods.

Tendência temporal e desigualdades na mortalidade por diarreias em menores de 5 anos

OBJETIVO: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por diarreia entre menores de 5 anos, no município de Osasco (SP), entre 1980 e 2000. MÉTODOS: Trata-se de estudo observacional com dois delineamentos. Um descritivo, que toma o indivíduo como unidade do estudo, e outro ecológico, analisando agregado populacional que incluiu análise de séries temporais. A fonte de dados foi o sistema de informação de mortalidade do Estado de São Paulo e censos de 1980, 1991 e 2000. Descreveu-se a variação sazonal e para a análise de tendência aplicaram-se modelos log lineares de regressão polinomiais, utilizando-se variáveis sociodemográficas da criança e da mãe. Foram analisadas a evolução de indicadores sociodemográficos do município de 1980 a 2000, as taxas médias de mortalidade por diarreia nos menores de 5 anos e seus diferenciais por distrito nos anos 90. RESULTADOS: Dos 1.360 óbitos, 94,3 e 75,3% atingiram, respectivamente, menores de 1 ano e de 6 meses. O declínio da mortalidade foi de 98,3%, com deslocamento da sazonalidade do verão para o outono. A mediana da idade elevou-se de 2 meses nos primeiros períodos para 3 meses no último. O resíduo de óbitos manteve-se entre filhos de mães de 20 a 29 anos e escolaridade < 8 anos. O risco relativo entre o distrito mais atingido e a taxa média do município diminuiu de 3,4 para 1,3 do primeiro para o segundo quinquênio dos anos 90. CONCLUSÃO: Nossos resultados apontam uma elevação da idade mais vulnerável e a provável mudança do agente mais frequentemente associado ao óbito por diarreia.

Effects of flooding of the River Paraná on the temporal activity of Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) darlingi Root (Diptera: Culicidae), at the border state of Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Study of the temporal activity of malaria vectors during the implantation of a hydroelectric power station on the River Paraná, intended to generate electrical energy. The river separates the States of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, in Brazil. The objective was to verify whether alterations occurred in the wealth and diversity indices of Anopheles, following two successive floods, extended to the temporal activity and nycthemeral rhythm followed over a five year period. METHODS: Mosquito capture was performed monthly using the Human Attraction Technique and Shannon Traps. The first, executed for 24h, provided the nycthemeral rhythm and the second, lasting 15h, permitted the tracking of Anopheles during the two floods. RESULTS: The bimodal pattern of Anopheles darlingi defined before these floods was modified throughout the environment interventions. The same effect had repercussions on the populations of An albitarsis s.l., An triannulatus and An galvaoi. Activity prior to twilight was less affected by the environment alterations. CONCLUSIONS: The dam construction provoked changes in Anopheles temporal activity patterns, permitting classification of the area as an ecologically steady and unstable situation. Differences observed in Anopheles behavior due to the capture methods revealed the influence of solo and multiple attractiveness inside the populations studied.

Pesquisa-Ação-Formação Inter e Transdisciplinar com Pessoas Envolvidas com a Questão do Morador de Rua

Este artigo apresenta reflexões teórico-metodológicas sobre processo de investigação de pós-doutorado que objetivava basicamente construir - na ação - estratégia de "psico-sócio-formação" de pessoas envolvidas com a questão do morador de rua; criar e aplicar um recurso metodológico operacional denominado "conto de encontro transformador". Do ponto de vista teórico, sob perspectivas inter e transdisciplinares de produção do conhecimento, essa "pesquisa-ação-formação" baseou-se no encontro dialógico entre os conhecimentos sobre "encontro transformador", "resiliência" e "ágape" e construtos teóricos da área da Educação, com ênfase no processo de autoformação. O projeto contou com vinte participantes: moradores de rua; trabalhadores de instituições de apoio a moradores de rua; técnicos das Secretarias de Assistência Social da Prefeitura de São Paulo e/ou da Secretaria da Saúde; e provenientes da Universidade de São Paulo e de outras Universidades do Brasil, França e Canadá.

Tendência temporal e desigualdades na mortalidade por diarreias em

Objetivo: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por diarreia entre menores de 5 anos, no município de Osasco (SP), entre 1980 e 2000. Métodos: Trata-se de estudo observacional com dois delineamentos. Um descritivo, que toma o indivíduo como unidade do estudo, e outro ecológico, analisando agregado populacional que incluiu análise de séries temporais. A fonte de dados foi o sistema de informação de mortalidade do Estado de São Paulo e censos de 1980, 1991 e 2000. Descreveu-se a variação sazonal e para a análise de tendência aplicaram-se modelos log lineares de regressão polinomiais, utilizando-se variáveis sociodemográficas da criança e da mãe. Foram analisadas a evolução de indicadores sociodemográficos do município de 1980 a 2000, as taxas médias de mortalidade por diarreia nos menores de 5 anos e seus diferenciais por distrito nos anos 90. Resultados: Dos 1.360 óbitos, 94,3 e 75,3% atingiram, respectivamente, menores de 1 ano e de 6 meses. O declínio da mortalidade foi de 98,3%, com deslocamento da sazonalidade do verão para o outono. A mediana da idade elevou-se de 2 meses nos primeiros períodos para 3 meses no último. O resíduo de óbitos manteve-se entre filhos de mães de 20 a 29 anos e escolaridade < 8 anos. O risco relativo entre o distrito mais atingido e a taxa média do município diminuiu de 3,4 para 1,3 do primeiro para o segundo quinquênio dos anos 90. Conclusão: Nossos resultados apontam uma elevação da idade mais vulnerável e a provável mudança do agente mais frequentemente associado ao óbito por diarreia

Stress at work among electric utility workers

In the last decades there was an increase in stress at work and its effects on workers' health. These issues are still little studied in the electric utility sector. This study aims to evaluate factors associated with stress at work and to verify its associations with health status among workers of an electric company in São Paulo State, Brazil. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 474 subjects (87.5% of the eligible workers). Data were collected using self-reported questionnaires. A descriptive analysis, a multiple linear hierarchical regression analysis and a correlation analysis were performed. The majority of participants were males (91.1%) and the mean age was 37.5 yr. The mean score of stress level was 2.3 points (scale ranging from 1.0 to 5.0). Hierarchical multiple analyses showed that: regular practice of physical activities (p=0.025) and individual monthly income (p=0.002) were inversely associated with stress level; BMI was marginally associated with the stress level (p=0.074). The demographic characteristics were not associated with stress. Stress at work was significantly associated with physical and mental health status (p<0.001). To improve health of electric utility workers, actions are suggested to decrease stress by remuneration and an appropriate practice of physical activity aiming reduction of BMI

Spatio-Temporal Tracking and Phylodynamics of an Urban Dengue 3 Outbreak in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The dengue virus has a single-stranded positive-sense RNA genome of similar to 10.700 nucleotides with a single open reading frame that encodes three structural (C, prM, and E) and seven nonstructural (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) proteins. It possesses four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV 1-4). Many phylogenetic studies address particularities of the different serotypes using convenience samples that are not conducive to a spatio-temporal analysis in a single urban setting. We describe the pattern of spread of distinct lineages of DENV-3 circulating in Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil, during 2006. Blood samples from patients presenting dengue-like symptoms were collected for DENV testing. We performed M-N-PCR using primers based on NS5 for virus detection and identification. The fragments were purified from PCR mixtures and sequenced. The positive dengue cases were geo-coded. To type the sequenced samples, 52 reference sequences were aligned. The dataset generated was used for iterative phylogenetic reconstruction with the maximum likelihood criterion. The best demographic model, the rate of growth, rate of evolutionary change, and Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were estimated. The basic reproductive rate during the epidemics was estimated. We obtained sequences from 82 patients among 174 blood samples. We were able to geo-code 46 sequences. The alignment generated a 399-nucleotide-long dataset with 134 taxa. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that all samples were of DENV-3 and related to strains circulating on the isle of Martinique in 2000-2001. Sixty DENV-3 from Sao Jose do Rio Preto formed a monophyletic group (lineage 1), closely related to the remaining 22 isolates (lineage 2). We assumed that these lineages appeared before 2006 in different occasions. By transforming the inferred exponential growth rates into the basic reproductive rate, we obtained values for lineage 1 of R(0) = 1.53 and values for lineage 2 of R(0) = 1.13. Under the exponential model, TMRCA of lineage 1 dated 1 year and lineage 2 dated 3.4 years before the last sampling. The possibility of inferring the spatio-temporal dynamics from genetic data has been generally little explored, and it may shed light on DENV circulation. The use of both geographic and temporally structured phylogenetic data provided a detailed view on the spread of at least two dengue viral strains in a populated urban area.