IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system

This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) 1979-2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981-2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081-2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the intertropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MI-ROC3.2-hires, MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS`s characteristics such as onset, duration, total monsoonal precipitation, and its interannual variability. On the other hand, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.

Cyclic variability of the circumstellar disk of the Be star zeta Tauri II. Testing the 2D global disk oscillation model

Context. About 2/3 of the Be stars present the so-called V/R variations, a phenomenon characterized by the quasi-cyclic variation in the ratio between the violet and red emission peaks of the HI emission lines. These variations are generally explained by global oscillations in the circumstellar disk forming a one-armed spiral density pattern that precesses around the star with a period of a few years. Aims. This paper presents self-consistent models of polarimetric, photometric, spectrophotometric, and interferometric observations of the classical Be star zeta Tauri. The primary goal is to conduct a critical quantitative test of the global oscillation scenario. Methods. Detailed three-dimensional, NLTE radiative transfer calculations were carried out using the radiative transfer code HDUST. The most up-to-date research on Be stars was used as input for the code in order to include a physically realistic description for the central star and the circumstellar disk. The model adopts a rotationally deformed, gravity darkened central star, surrounded by a disk whose unperturbed state is given by a steady-state viscous decretion disk model. It is further assumed that this disk is in vertical hydrostatic equilibrium. Results. By adopting a viscous decretion disk model for zeta Tauri and a rigorous solution of the radiative transfer, a very good fit of the time-average properties of the disk was obtained. This provides strong theoretical evidence that the viscous decretion disk model is the mechanism responsible for disk formation. The global oscillation model successfully fitted spatially resolved VLTI/AMBER observations and the temporal V/R variations in the H alpha and Br gamma lines. This result convincingly demonstrates that the oscillation pattern in the disk is a one-armed spiral. Possible model shortcomings, as well as suggestions for future improvements, are also discussed.

Propagacão das ondas de rossby nos invernos de máxima freqüência de ocorrência de geadas na pampa úmida

Neste trabalho estudou-se a influência dos padrões de onda extratropicais, que favorecem o desenvolvimento de eventos extremos frios no sudeste Sul-Americano, e em particular na região conhecida como Pampa Úmida. O aquecimento anômalo observado na região do oceano Pacífico tropical ocidental a nordeste da Austrália, durante os invernos de máxima freqüência de ocorrência de Geadas Generalizadas (GG) no centro-leste da Argentina, (região conhecida como Pampa Úmida - PU), atua como disparador de ondas de Rossby, as quais se propagam até o continente, favorecendo assim a ocorrência daqueles eventos. O padrão de propagação obtido nas simulações numéricas com um modelo baroclínico global, mostra o predomínio de um número de onda 3. Adicionalmente, foram analisadas as correlações do vento meridional em altos e baixos níveis observados para os eventos de GG, selecionados dentro dos invernos de máxima freqüência de ocorrência desses eventos. O vento meridional global em 250hPa apresenta regiões com correlação estatisticamente significativa com o vento meridional médio na PU. A configuração obtida no caso do vento meridional global em 250hPa, correlacionado com o vento meridional na PU, pode estar associada ao padrão de propagação das ondas simuladas numericamente a partir da forçante tropical. Igualmente importantes e significativos são os valores de correlação do vento sul nos baixos níveis, em particular para toda região da PU. O padrão de ondas simulado está bem representado pelas significativas correlações entre o vento meridional hemisférico em altos níveis e a temperatura no dia de evento de GG.

Variabilidade do regime de monções sobre o Brasil: o clima presente e projeções para um cenário com 2xCO2 usando o modelo MIROC

Este trabalho investiga a variabilidade do Sistema de Monções da América do Sul (SMAS) sobre o Brasil com particular interesse na região do cerrado brasileiro. O início, final e total de precipitação durante as monções de verão são examinados utilizando estimativas de precipitação por satélite (pêntadas) do Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) entre 1979-2004. Analogamente, as características do regime de monção simuladas pelo modelo climático global acoplado MIROC (Model for interdisciplinary Research on Climate) do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) são examinadas em dois cenários distintos: o clima do século XX (1981-2000) e o clima em uma condição com o dobro da concentração atual de CO2 (2xCO2) na atmosfera (2061-2080). Mostra-se que a variabilidade espacial do início da monção de verão sobre o cerrado na simulação do clima do século XX pelo MIROC corresponde bem às observações. Além disso, há indicação de uma mudança das caudas da distribuição sazonal da precipitação no Cerrado para um cenário com 2xCO2, comparativamente com o clima presente. Este resultado sugere uma mudança na probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos extremos (secos ou úmidos) em um cenário com 2xCO2 sobre o cerrado, o que de acordo com o MIROC, indica uma maior exposição da região às conseqüências de possíveis mudanças climáticas resultantes do aumento de gases de efeito estufa.

Combustion iron distribution and deposition

[1] Iron is hypothesized to be an important micronutrient for ocean biota, thus modulating carbon dioxide uptake by the ocean biological pump. Studies have assumed that atmospheric deposition of iron to the open ocean is predominantly from mineral aerosols. For the first time we model the source, transport, and deposition of iron from combustion sources. Iron is produced in small quantities during fossil fuel burning, incinerator use, and biomass burning. The sources of combustion iron are concentrated in the industrialized regions and biomass burning regions, largely in the tropics. Model results suggest that combustion iron can represent up to 50% of the total iron deposited, but over open ocean regions it is usually less than 5% of the total iron, with the highest values (< 30%) close to the East Asian continent in the North Pacific. For ocean biogeochemistry the bioavailability of the iron is important, and this is often estimated by the fraction which is soluble ( Fe(II)). Previous studies have argued that atmospheric processing of the relatively insoluble Fe(III) occurs to make it more soluble ( Fe( II)). Modeled estimates of soluble iron amounts based solely on atmospheric processing as simulated here cannot match the variability in daily averaged in situ concentration measurements in Korea, which is located close to both combustion and dust sources. The best match to the observations is that there are substantial direct emissions of soluble iron from combustion processes. If we assume observed soluble Fe/black carbon ratios in Korea are representative of the whole globe, we obtain the result that deposition of soluble iron from combustion contributes 20-100% of the soluble iron deposition over many ocean regions. This implies that more work should be done refining the emissions and deposition of combustion sources of soluble iron globally.

Model for facilities or vendors location in a global scale considering several echelons in the Chain

The facilities location problem for companies with global operations is very complex and not well explored in the literature. This work proposes a MILP model that solves the problem through minimization of the total logistic cost. Main contributions of the model are the pioneer carrying cost calculation, the treatment given to the take-or-pay costs and to the international tax benefits such as drawback and added value taxes in Brazil. The model was successfully applied to a real case of a chemical industry with industrial plants and sales all over the world. The model application recommended a totally new sourcing model for the company.

A retrospective model of oocyte competence: global mRNA and housekeeping transcripts are not associated with in vitro developmental outcome

Oocyte developmental competence depends on maternal stores that support development throughout a transcriptionally silent period during early embryogenesis. Previous attempts to investigate transcripts associated with oocyte competence have relied on prospective models, which are mostly based on morphological. criteria. Using a retrospective model, we quantitatively compared mRNA among oocytes with different embryo development competence. A cytoplasm biopsy was removed from in vitro matured oocytes to perform comparative analysis of amounts of global polyadenylated (polyA) mRNA and housekeeping gene transcripts. After parthenogenetic activation of biopsied oocytes, presumptive zygotes were cultured individually in vitro and oocytes were classified according to embryo development: (i) blocked before the 8-cell stage; (ii) blocked between the 8-cell and morulae stages; or (iii) developed to the blastocyst stage. Sham-manipulated controls confirmed that biopsies did not alter development outcome. Total polyA mRNA amounts correlate with oocyte diameter but not with the ability to develop to the 8-cell and blastocyst stages. The last was also confirmed by relative quantification of GAPDH, H2A and Hprt1 transcripts. In conclusion, we describe a novel retrospective model to identify putative markers of development competence in single oocytes and demonstrate that global mRNA amounts at the metaphase II stage do not correlate with embryo development in vitro.

Global attractor for a model of extensible beam with nonlinear damping and source terms

This paper is concerned with the existence of a global attractor for the nonlinear beam equation, with nonlinear damping and source terms, u(tt) + Delta(2)u -M (integral(Omega)vertical bar del u vertical bar(2)dx) Delta u + f(u) + g(u(t)) = h in Omega x R(+), where Omega is a bounded domain of R(N), M is a nonnegative real function and h is an element of L(2)(Omega). The nonlinearities f(u) and g(u(t)) are essentially vertical bar u vertical bar(rho) u - vertical bar u vertical bar(sigma) u and vertical bar u(t)vertical bar(r) u(t) respectively, with rho, sigma, r > 0 and sigma < rho. This kind of problem models vibrations of extensible beams and plates. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Previsões climáticas sazonais sobre o Brasil: avaliação do RegCM3 aninhado no modelo global CPTEC/COLA

Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de previsões sazonais do modelo climático regional RegCM3, aninhado ao modelo global CPTEC/COLA. As previsões com o RegCM3 utilizaram 60 km de resolução horizontal num domínio que inclui grande parte da América do Sul. As previsões do RegCM3 e CPTEC/COLA foram avaliadas utilizando as análises de chuva e temperatura do ar do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) e National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP), respectivamente. Entre maio de 2005 e julho de 2007, 27 previsões sazonais de chuva e temperatura do ar (exceto a temperatura do CPTEC/COLA, que possui 26 previsões) foram avaliadas em três regiões do Brasil: Nordeste (NDE), Sudeste (SDE) e Sul (SUL). As previsões do RegCM3 também foram comparadas com as climatologias das análises. De acordo com os índices estatísticos (bias, coeficiente de correlação, raiz quadrada do erro médio quadrático e coeficiente de eficiência), nas três regiões (NDE, SDE e SUL) a chuva sazonal prevista pelo RegCM3 é mais próxima da observada do que a prevista pelo CPTEC/COLA. Além disto, o RegCM3 também é melhor previsor da chuva sazonal do que da média das observações nas três regiões. Para temperatura, as previsões do RegCM3 são superiores às do CPTEC/COLA nas áreas NDE e SUL, enquanto o CPTEC/COLA é superior no SDE. Finalmente, as previsões de chuva e temperatura do RegCM3 são mais próximas das observações do que a climatologia observada. Estes resultados indicam o potencial de utilização do RegCM3 para previsão sazonal, que futuramente deverá ser explorado através de previsão por conjunto.

Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

The Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) - Part 1: Model description and evaluation

We introduce the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). CATT-BRAMS is an on-line transport model fully consistent with the simulated atmospheric dynamics. Emission sources from biomass burning and urban-industrial-vehicular activities for trace gases and from biomass burning aerosol particles are obtained from several published datasets and remote sensing information. The tracer and aerosol mass concentration prognostics include the effects of sub-grid scale turbulence in the planetary boundary layer, convective transport by shallow and deep moist convection, wet and dry deposition, and plume rise associated with vegetation fires in addition to the grid scale transport. The radiation parameterization takes into account the interaction between the simulated biomass burning aerosol particles and short and long wave radiation. The atmospheric model BRAMS is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), with several improvements associated with cumulus convection representation, soil moisture initialization and surface scheme tuned for the tropics, among others. In this paper the CATT-BRAMS model is used to simulate carbon monoxide and particulate material (PM(2.5)) surface fluxes and atmospheric transport during the 2002 LBA field campaigns, conducted during the transition from the dry to wet season in the southwest Amazon Basin. Model evaluation is addressed with comparisons between model results and near surface, radiosondes and airborne measurements performed during the field campaign, as well as remote sensing derived products. We show the matching of emissions strengths to observed carbon monoxide in the LBA campaign. A relatively good comparison to the MOPITT data, in spite of the fact that MOPITT a priori assumptions imply several difficulties, is also obtained.

Human Dental Pulp Cells: A New Source of Cell Therapy in a Mouse Model of Compressive Spinal Cord Injury

Strategies aimed at improving spinal cord regeneration after trauma are still challenging neurologists and neuroscientists throughout the world. Many cell-based therapies have been tested, with limited success in terms of functional outcome. In this study, we investigated the effects of human dental pulp cells (HDPCs) in a mouse model of compressive spinal cord injury (SCI). These cells present some advantages, such as the ease of the extraction process, and expression of trophic factors and embryonic markers from both ecto-mesenchymal and mesenchymal components. Young adult female C57/BL6 mice were subjected to laminectomy at T9 and compression of the spinal cord with a vascular clip for 1 min. The cells were transplanted 7 days or 28 days after the lesion, in order to compare the recovery when treatment is applied in a subacute or chronic phase. We performed quantitative analyses of white-matter preservation, trophic-factor expression and quantification, and ultrastructural and functional analysis. Our results for the HDPC-transplanted animals showed better white-matter preservation than the DMEM groups, higher levels of trophic-factor expression in the tissue, better tissue organization, and the presence of many axons being myelinated by either Schwann cells or oligodendrocytes, in addition to the presence of some healthy-appearing intact neurons with synapse contacts on their cell bodies. We also demonstrated that HDPCs were able to express some glial markers such as GFAP and S-100. The functional analysis also showed locomotor improvement in these animals. Based on these findings, we propose that HDPCs may be feasible candidates for therapeutic intervention after SCI and central nervous system disorders in humans.

Charm and longitudinal structure functions within the Kharzeev-Levin-Nardi model

We use the Kharzeev-Levin-Nardi (KLN) model of the low x gluon distributions to fit recent HERA data on F(L) and F(2)(c)(F(2)(b)). Having checked that this model gives a good description of the data, we use it to predict F(L) and F(2)(c) to be measured in a future electron-ion collider. The results are similar to those obtained with the de Florian-Sassot and Eskola-Paukkunen-Salgado nuclear gluon distributions. The conclusion of this exercise is that the KLN model, simple as it is, may still be used as an auxiliary tool to make estimates for both heavy-ion and electron-ion collisions.

Coexistence of interacting opinions in a generalized Sznajd model

The Sznajd model is a sociophysics model that mimics the propagation of opinions in a closed society, where the interactions favor groups of agreeing people. It is based in the Ising and Potts ferromagnetic models and, although the original model used only linear chains, it has since been adapted to general networks. This model has a very rich transient, which has been used to model several aspects of elections, but its stationary states are always consensus states. In order to model more complex behaviors, we have, in a recent work, introduced the idea of biases and prejudices to the Sznajd model by generalizing the bounded confidence rule, which is common to many continuous opinion models, to what we called confidence rules. In that work we have found that the mean field version of this model (corresponding to a complete network) allows for stationary states where noninteracting opinions survive, but never for the coexistence of interacting opinions. In the present work, we provide networks that allow for the coexistence of interacting opinions for certain confidence rules. Moreover, we show that the model does not become inactive; that is, the opinions keep changing, even in the stationary regime. This is an important result in the context of understanding how a rule that breeds local conformity is still able to sustain global diversity while avoiding a frozen stationary state. We also provide results that give some insights on how this behavior approaches the mean field behavior as the networks are changed.

GLOBAL WELL-POSEDNESS AND NON-LINEAR STABILITY OF PERIODIC TRAVELING WAVES FOR A SCHRODINGER-BENJAMIN-ONO SYSTEM

The objective of this paper is two-fold: firstly, we develop a local and global (in time) well-posedness theory for a system describing the motion of two fluids with different densities under capillary-gravity waves in a deep water flow (namely, a Schrodinger-Benjamin-Ono system) for low-regularity initial data in both periodic and continuous cases; secondly, a family of new periodic traveling waves for the Schrodinger-Benjamin-Ono system is given: by fixing a minimal period we obtain, via the implicit function theorem, a smooth branch of periodic solutions bifurcating a Jacobian elliptic function called dnoidal, and, moreover, we prove that all these periodic traveling waves are nonlinearly stable by perturbations with the same wavelength.