Variabilidade do regime de monções sobre o Brasil: o clima presente e projeções para um cenário com 2xCO2 usando o modelo MIROC

Este trabalho investiga a variabilidade do Sistema de Monções da América do Sul (SMAS) sobre o Brasil com particular interesse na região do cerrado brasileiro. O início, final e total de precipitação durante as monções de verão são examinados utilizando estimativas de precipitação por satélite (pêntadas) do Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) entre 1979-2004. Analogamente, as características do regime de monção simuladas pelo modelo climático global acoplado MIROC (Model for interdisciplinary Research on Climate) do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) são examinadas em dois cenários distintos: o clima do século XX (1981-2000) e o clima em uma condição com o dobro da concentração atual de CO2 (2xCO2) na atmosfera (2061-2080). Mostra-se que a variabilidade espacial do início da monção de verão sobre o cerrado na simulação do clima do século XX pelo MIROC corresponde bem às observações. Além disso, há indicação de uma mudança das caudas da distribuição sazonal da precipitação no Cerrado para um cenário com 2xCO2, comparativamente com o clima presente. Este resultado sugere uma mudança na probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos extremos (secos ou úmidos) em um cenário com 2xCO2 sobre o cerrado, o que de acordo com o MIROC, indica uma maior exposição da região às conseqüências de possíveis mudanças climáticas resultantes do aumento de gases de efeito estufa.

Respostas fisiológicas de plantas amazônicas de regiões alagadas às mudanças climáticas globais

Conforme previsões do último relatório do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change) em 2007, até meados deste século haverá um aumento na concentração de CO2 na atmosfera podendo chegar a 720 μmol mol-1. Consequentemente haverá uma elevação da temperatura de até +3 °C, o que ocorrerá em conjunto com mudanças no padrão de precipitação. O mesmo relatório sugere que isto poderá acarretar uma substituição gradual da floresta tropical por vegetação similar a uma savana na parte oriental da Amazônia, porém nada é conclusivo. Diante dessas possibilidades, pergunta-se - Como as espécies de árvores que compõem as regiões de alagamento da Amazônia irão responder às alterações climáticas por vir? Apesar dessas previsões serem pessimistas, o alagamento ainda ocorrerá por vários anos na Amazônia e é de grande importância compreender os efeitos do alagamento sobre as respostas fisiológicas das plantas num contexto das mudanças climáticas. Os principais efeitos sobre a sinalização metabólica e hormonal durante o alagamento são revisados e os possíveis efeitos que as mudanças climáticas poderão ter sobre as plantas amazônicas são discutidos. As informações existentes sugerem que sob alagamento, as plantas tendem a mobilizar reservas para suprir a demanda de carbono necessário para a manutenção do metabolismo sob o estresse da falta de oxigênio. Até certo limite, com o aumento da concentração de CO2, as plantas tendem a fazer mais fotossíntese e a produzir mais biomassa, que poderão aumentar ainda mais com um acréscimo de temperatura de até 3 °C. Alternativamente, com o alagamento, há uma diminuição geral do potencial de crescimento e é possível que quando em condições de CO2 e temperatura elevados os efeitos positivo e negativo se somem. Com isso, as respostas fisiológicas poderão ser amenizadas ou, ainda, promover maior crescimento para a maioria das espécies de regiões alagáveis até o meio do século. Porém, quando a temperatura e o CO2 atingirem valores acima dos ótimos para a maioria das plantas, estas possivelmente diminuirão a atividade fisiológica.

Políticas públicas ambientais no Brasil: mitigação das mudanças climáticas

Since the mid of 1980 an, discussed global climate change in the international sphere. This process resulted in the achievement of the United Nations Conference for Environment and Development UNCED, held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, which resulted, among other documents, the Framework Convention of Climate Change - CMC. After five years, there was the establishment of the Kyoto Protocol - PK - which, unlike the Convention, set clearer standards on reducing emissions of gases effect of studying and targets to be achieved by countries which have issued more gas in the past, in the Annex I. The aim of this text is to analyze the ongoing federal public policies regarding mitigation of climate change in the country. To that end, it is based on analysis of official documentation. It analyzes policies before and after the adoption of the CMC in Brazil.

Rapid formation of isoprene photo-oxidation products observed in Amazonia

Isoprene represents the single most important reactive hydrocarbon for atmospheric chemistry in the tropical atmosphere. It plays a central role in global and regional atmospheric chemistry and possible climate feedbacks. Photo-oxidation of primary hydrocarbons (e. g. isoprene) leads to the formation of oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs). The evolution of these intermediates affects the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere (by reacting with OH) and can contribute to secondary aerosol formation, a poorly understood process. An accurate and quantitative understanding of VOC oxidation processes is needed for model simulations of regional air quality and global climate. Based on field measurements conducted during the Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment (AMAZE-08) we show that the production of certain OVOCs (e. g. hydroxyacetone) from isoprene photo-oxidation in the lower atmosphere is significantly underpredicted by standard chemistry schemes. Recently reported fast secondary production could explain 50% of the observed discrepancy with the remaining part possibly produced via a novel primary production channel, which has been proposed theoretically. The observations of OVOCs are also used to test a recently proposed HO(x) recycling mechanism via degradation of isoprene peroxy radicals. If generalized our observations suggest that prompt photochemical formation of OVOCs and other uncertainties in VOC oxidation schemes could result in uncertainties of modelled OH reactivity, potentially explaining a fraction of the missing OH sink over forests which has previously been largely attributed to a missing source of primary biogenic VOCs.

Intra and interannual variability in the Madeira River water chemistry and sediment load

Concentrations of cations (Na(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), K(+), NH(4) (+)), anions (HCO(3) (-), Cl(-), NO(3) (-), SO(4) (2-), PO(4) (3-)) and suspended sediments in the Madeira River water were determined near the city of Porto Velho (RO), in order to assess variation in water chemistry from 2004 to 2007. Calcium and bicarbonate were the dominant cation and anion, respectively. Significant seasonal differences were found, with highest concentrations occurring during the dry season, as expected from the drainage of Andean carbonate-rich substratum. Interannual variations were also observed, but became significant only when annual average discharge was 25% less than normal. Under this atypical discharge condition, bicarbonate was replaced by sulfate, and higher suspended sediment concentrations and loads were also observed. Compared to previously published studies, it appears that no significant changes in water chemistry have occurred during the last 20-30 years, although differences in approaches and sampling designs among this and previous studies may not allow detection of modest changes. The calculated suspended sediment load reported here is close to the values presented elsewhere, reinforcing the relative importance of this river as a sediment supplier for the Amazon Basin. Seasonality has a significant control on the chemistry of Madeira River waters, and severe decrease in discharge due to anthropogenic changes, such as construction of reservoirs or the occurrence of drier years-a plausible consequence of global climate change-may lead to modification in the chemical composition as well in the sediment deliver to the Amazon River.

Using economic instruments to address emissions from air transport in the European Union

Air transport has become a vital component of the global economy. However, greenhouse-gas emissions from this sector have a significant impact on global climate, being responsible for over 3.5% of all anthropogenic radiative forcing. Also, the accrued visibility of aircraft emissions greatly affects the public image of the industry. In this context, incentive-based regulations, in the form of price or quantity controls, can be envisaged as alternatives to mitigate these emissions. The use of environmental charges in air transport, and the inclusion of the sector in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), are considered under a range of scenarios. The impacts of these measures on demand are estimated, and results suggest that they are likely to be minimal-mainly due to the high willingness to pay for air transport. In particular, in the EU ETS scenario currently favoured by the EU, demand reductions are less than 2%. This may not be true in the longer run, for short trips, or if future caps become more stringent. Furthermore, given current estimates of the social Cost Of CO2 as well as typical EU ETS prices, supply-side abatement would be too costly to be encouraged by these policies in the short term. The magnitude of aviation CO2 emissions in the EU is estimated, both in physical and monetary terms; the results are consistent with Eurocontrol estimates and, for the EU-25, the total social cost of these emissions represents only 0.03% of the region`s GDP. It is concluded that the use of multisector policies, such as the EU ETS, is unsuitable for curbing emissions from air transport, and that stringent emission charges or an isolated ETS would be better instruments. However, the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS has advantages under target-oriented post-2012 scenarios, such as policy-costs dilution, certainty in reductions, and flexibility in abatement allocation. This solution is also attractive to airlines, as it would improve their public image but require virtually no reduction of their own emissions, as they would be fully capable of passing on policy costs to their customers.

LEAF AREA REDUCTION IN CORN GROWN IN A TROPICAL REGION OF BRAZIL AND ITS EFFECTS ON AGRONOMIC TRAITS

Global climate change may reduce leaf area in crop plants due to factors such as increasing occurrence of pests and diseases. The aim of this work was to estimate the impact of leaf area reduction on agronomic traits in corn. An experiment simulating leaf area reduction was carried out in a tropical region of Brazil. The agronomic performance of corn plants was evaluated at different percentages of leaf loss. It was observed that leaf area reductions over 41.01% significantly harm yield, mass of 1000 grains, cob density, and stem and root quality Crop improvement programs should take into account the development of genotypes resistant to factors that cause leaf area reduction in tropical crops.