An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Production and body composition traits of broilers in relation to breast weight evaluated by path analysis

Breast weight has great economic importance in poultry industry, and may be associated with other variables. This work aimed to estimate phenotypic correlations between performance (live body weight at 7 and 28 days, and at slaughter, and depth of the breast muscle measured by ultrasonography), carcass (eviscerated body weight and leg weight) and body composition (heart, liver and abdominal fat weight) traits in a broiler line, and quantify the direct and indirect influence of these traits on breast weight. Path analysis was used by expanding the matrix of partial correlation in coefficients which give the direct influence of one trait on another, regardless the effect of the other traits. The simultaneous maintenance of live body weight at slaughter and eviscerated body weight in the matrix of correlations might be harmful for statistical analysis involving systems of normal equations, like path analysis, due to the observed multicollinearity. The live body weight at slaughter and the depth of the breast muscle as measured by ultrasonography directly affected breast weight and were identified as the most responsible factors for the magnitude of the correlation coefficients obtained between the studied traits and breast weight. Individual pre-selection for these traits could favor an increased breast weight in the future reproducer candidates of this line if the broilers' environmental conditions and housing are maintained, since the live body weight at slaughter and the depth of breast muscle measured by ultrasonography were directly related to breast weight.

Forward Neutral-Pion Transverse Single-Spin Asymmetries in p plus p Collisions at s=200 GeV

We report precision measurements of the Feynman x (x(F)) dependence, and first measurements of the transverse momentum (p(T)) dependence, of transverse single-spin asymmetries for the production of pi(0) mesons from polarized proton collisions at s=200 GeV. The x(F) dependence of the results is in fair agreement with perturbative QCD model calculations that identify orbital motion of quarks and gluons within the proton as the origin of the spin effects. Results for the p(T) dependence at fixed x(F) are not consistent with these same perturbative QCD-based calculations.

Azimuthal Anisotropy of pi(0) Production in Au plus Au Collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV: Path-Length Dependence of Jet Quenching and the Role of Initial Geometry

We have measured the azimuthal anisotropy of pi(0) production for 1 < p(T) < 18 GeV/c for Au + Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. The observed anisotropy shows a gradual decrease for 3 less than or similar to p(T) less than or similar to 7-10 GeV/c, but remains positive beyond 10 GeV/c. The magnitude of this anisotropy is underpredicted, up to at least similar to 10 GeV/c, by current perturbative QCD (PQCD) energy-loss model calculations. An estimate of the increase in anisotropy expected from initial-geometry modification due to gluon saturation effects and fluctuations is insufficient to account for this discrepancy. Calculations that implement a path-length dependence steeper than what is implied by current PQCD energy-loss models show reasonable agreement with the data.

High-p(T) pi(0) production with respect to the reaction plane in Au plus Au collisions at s(NN)=200 GeV

Measurements of the azimuthal anisotropy of high-p(T) neutral pion (pi(0)) production in Au+Au collisions at s(NN)=200 GeV by the PHENIX experiment are presented. The data included in this article were collected during the 2004 Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider running period and represent approximately an order of magnitude increase in the number of analyzed events relative to previously published results. Azimuthal angle distributions of pi(0) mesons detected in the PHENIX electromagnetic calorimeters are measured relative to the reaction plane determined event-by-event using the forward and backward beam-beam counters. Amplitudes of the second Fourier component (v(2)) of the angular distributions are presented as a function of pi(0) transverse momentum (p(T)) for different bins in collision centrality. Measured reaction plane dependent pi(0) yields are used to determine the azimuthal dependence of the pi(0) suppression as a function of p(T), R(AA)(Delta phi,p(T)). A jet-quenching motivated geometric analysis is presented that attempts to simultaneously describe the centrality dependence and reaction plane angle dependence of the pi(0) suppression in terms of the path lengths of hypothetical parent partons in the medium. This set of results allows for a detailed examination of the influence of geometry in the collision region and of the interplay between collective flow and jet-quenching effects along the azimuthal axis.

Growth of Long Range Forward-Backward Multiplicity Correlations with Centrality in Au plus Au Collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV

Forward-backward multiplicity correlation strengths have been measured with the STAR detector for Au + Au and p + p collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. Strong short- and long-range correlations (LRC) are seen in central Au + Au collisions. The magnitude of these correlations decrease with decreasing centrality until only short-range correlations are observed in peripheral Au + Au collisions. Both the dual parton model (DPM) and the color glass condensate (CGC) predict the existence of the long-range correlations. In the DPM, the fluctuation in the number of elementary (parton) inelastic collisions produces the LRC. In the CGC, longitudinal color flux tubes generate the LRC. The data are in qualitative agreement with the predictions of the DPM and indicate the presence of multiple parton interactions.

Superconducting current path and flux line shape in NbTiTa obtained by inter-diffusion process

This investigation presents a comprehensive characterization of magnetic and transport properties of an interesting superconducting wire, Nb-Ti -Ta, obtained through the solid-state diffusion between Nb-12 at.% Ta alloy and pure Ti. The physical properties obtained from magnetic and transport measurements related to the microstructure unambiguously confirmed a previous proposition that the superconducting currents flow in the center of the diffusion layer, which has a steep composition variation. The determination of the critical field also confirmed that the flux line core size is not constant, and in addition it was possible to determine that, in the center of the layer, the flux line core is smaller than at the borders. A possible core shape design is proposed. Among the wires studied, the one that presented the best critical current density was achieved for a diffusion layer with a composition of about Nb-32% Ti-10% Ta, obtained with a heat treatment at 700 degrees C during 120 h, in agreement with previous studies. It was determined that this wire has the higher upper critical field, indicating that the optimization of the superconducting behavior is related to an intrinsic property of the ternary alloy.

Simulated annealing with adaptive neighborhood: A case study in off-line robot path planning

Simulated annealing (SA) is an optimization technique that can process cost functions with degrees of nonlinearities, discontinuities and stochasticity. It can process arbitrary boundary conditions and constraints imposed on these cost functions. The SA technique is applied to the problem of robot path planning. Three situations are considered here: the path is represented as a polyline; as a Bezier curve; and as a spline interpolated curve. In the proposed SA algorithm, the sensitivity of each continuous parameter is evaluated at each iteration increasing the number of accepted solutions. The sensitivity of each parameter is associated to its probability distribution in the definition of the next candidate. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does using stepwise variable selection to build sequential path analysis models make sense?

Causal inference methods - mainly path analysis and structural equation modeling - offer plant physiologists information about cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits. Recently, an unusual approach to causal inference through stepwise variable selection has been proposed and used in various works on plant physiology. The approach should not be considered correct from a biological point of view. Here, it is explained why stepwise variable selection should not be used for causal inference, and shown what strange conclusions can be drawn based upon the former analysis when one aims to interpret cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits.

ISPRM`S WAY FORWARD

This paper outlines approaches to developing the International Society of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine (ISPRM) and addresses many current challenges Most importantly, these approaches provide the basis for ISPRM to develop its leadership role within the field of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine (PRM) and in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations (UN) system at large. They also address a number of specific critiques of the current situation. A positioning of ISPRM within the world architecture of the UN and WHO systems, as well as the consideration and fostering of respective emerging regional PRM societies, is central to establishing networking connections at different levels of the world society. Yearly congresses, possibly in co-operation with a regional society, based on a defined regional rotation, are suggested. Thus, frustration with the current bidding system for a biennial congress and an intermediate meeting could be overcome. Yearly congresses are also an important step towards increasing the organization`s funding base, and hence the possibility to expand the functions of ISPRM`s central office. ISPRM`s envisioned leadership role in the context of an international web of PRM journals complementing the formally defined official journal of ISPRM, regional societies and so forth, is an inclusive rather than exclusive approach that contributes to the development of PRM journals worldwide. An important prerequisite for the further development of ISPRM is the expansion and bureaucratization of its Central Office, adding professionalism and systematic allocation of resources to the strengths of the voluntary engagement of individual PRM doctors.

Accuracy of store-and-forward diagnosis in leproy

Telemedicine might increase the speed of diagnosis for leprosy and reduce the development of disabilities. We compared the accuracy of diagnosis made by telemedicine with that made by in-person examination. The cases were patients with suspected leprosy at eight public health clinics in outlying areas of the city of Sao Paulo. The case history and clinical examination data, and at least two clinical images for each patient, were stored in a web-based system developed for teledermatology. After the examination in the public clinic, patients then attended a teaching hospital for an in-person examination. The benchmark was the clinical examination of two dermatologists at the university hospital. From August 2005 to April 2006, 142 suspected cases of leprosy were forwarded to the website by the doctors at the clinics. Of these, 36 cases were excluded. There was overall agreement in the diagnosis of leprosy in 74% of the 106 remaining cases. The sensitivity was 78% and the specificity was 31%. Although the specificity was low, the study suggests that telemedicine may be a useful low-cost method for obtaining second opinions in programmes to control leprosy.

Health in Brazil 6 Health conditions and health-policy innovations in Brazil: the way forward

Brazil is a large complex country that is undergoing rapid economic, social, and environmental change In this Series of six articles, we have reported important improvements in health status and life expectancy, which can be ascribed largely to progress in social determinants of health and to implementation of a comprehensive national health system with strong social participation. Many challenges remain, however. Socioeconomic and regional disparities are still unacceptably large, reflecting the fact that much progress is still needed to improve basic living conditions for a large proportion of the population. New health problems arise as a result of urbanisation and social and environmental change, and some old health issues remain unabated. Administration of a complex, decentralised public-health system, in which a large share of services is contracted out to the private sector, together with many private insurance providers, inevitably causes conflict and contradiction. The challenge is ultimately political, and we conclude with a call for action that requires continuous engagement by Brazilian society as a whole in securing the right to health for all Brazilian people.

Paleomagnetism of the Santa Fe Group, central Brazil: Implications for the late Paleozoic apparent polar wander path for South America

Paleomagnetic and rockmagnetic data are reported for the Floresta Formation (Santa Fe Group) of the Sanfranciscana Basin, central Brazil. This formation represents the Permo-Carboniferous glacial record of the basin and comprises the Brocoto (diamictites and flow diamictites), Brejo do Arroz (red sandstones and shales with dropstones and invertebrate trails), and Lavado (red sandstones) members, which crop out near the cities of Santa Fe de Minas and Canabrava, Minas Gerais State. Both Brejo do Arroz and Lavado members were sampled in the vicinities of the two localities. Alternating field and thermal demagnetizations of 268 samples from 76 sites revealed reversed components of magnetization in all samples in accordance with the Permo-Carboniferous Reversed Superchron. The magnetic carriers are magnetite and hematite with both minerals exhibiting the same magnetization component, suggesting a primary origin for the remanence. We use the high-quality paleomagnetic pole for the Santa Fe Group (330.9 degrees E 65.7 degrees S; N = 60; alpha(95) = 4.1 degrees; k = 21) in a revised late Carboniferous to early Triassic apparent polar wander path for South America. On the basis of this result it is shown that an early Permian Pangea A-type fit is possible if better determined paleomagnetic poles become available.