Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies` Sacrifice Ratios

Using data from OECD economies, we show that inflation targeters suffered smaller output losses during disinflations when compared to nontargeters. We also study why some countries choose to inflation target while others do not and find that higher average inflation and smaller debt levels render the adoption of the regime more likely. Applying Heckman`s procedure to control for selection bias does not alter the link between inflation targeting and less costly disinflations.

Visiting-economists through Hirschman`s eyes

Since the nineteenth century, Latin America and other poor areas of the world received periodical visits from missions of economic experts. This paper analyzes the picture that Hirschman draws of these money doctors, whose main task was to advise on the economic and financial reforms that were deemed necessary for economic development. Hirschman coins the expression `visiting-economist syndrome` to criticize the work done by these money doctors. I discuss whether Hirschman, as a money doctor himself, was able to acquire immunity from the disease he feared.

Nominal versus indexed debt: A quantitative horse race

The main arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debts are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortion, government outlays uncertainty, and contingent-debt service. Our framework also recognizes that contingent debt can be associated with incentive problems and lack of commitment. Thus, the benefits of unexpected inflation are tempered by higher interest rates. We obtain that costs from inflation more than offset the benefits from reducing tax distortions. We further discuss sustainability of nominal debt in developing (volatile) countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soybean: unrealized income losses avoided during harvest.

The wastes occurred during the harvest cause a hard impact in the agricultural business. About the soy fields, recent researches indicate that half of this waste could be avoided, reducing the cost of production and resultant earning of the companies. The purpose of this article is to analyze the estimative of soy harvest field area of 2006/07 to 2007/08 and respective production, subsidy estimate the waste that could be avoided during the harvest, considerating tolerable levels of 60 Kg by hectare, accordant is the model adopted on USA e Brazil. This research was based in a bibliographic study to explain and analyze all sides, practical and theoretical around the investigate problem. It was checked that is possible expect and avoid these wastes during the harvest. Such wastes overcome the mark of 20,000 ton/year, that in money talks represent over R$ 1.000.000 mil/year. Conclude however that wastes when treated provide a production cost reduction, indicating execution and a positive impact on agricultural companies` earnings.

Financial leverage and tangibility of assets of Brazilian companies of agribusiness in the post-real plan period

This paper aims to study the relationship between the debt level and the asset structure of Brazilian companies of the agribusiness sector, since it is considered a current and relevant discussion: to evaluate the mechanisms for fund-raising and guarantees. The methodology of Granger`s Causality test and Autoregressive Vectors was used to conduct a comparative analysis, applied to a financial database of companies with open capital of Brazilian agribusiness, in particular the agricultural sector and Fisheries and Food and Beverages in a period of 10 years (1997-2007) from quarterly series available in the database of Economatica(R). The results demonstrated that changes in leverage generate variations in the tangibility of the companies, a fact that can be explained by the large search of funding secured by fiduciary transfer of fixed assets, which facilitates access to credit by business of the Agribusiness sector, increasing the payment time and lowering interest rates.

Crack Cocaine Use in Barcelona: A Reason of Worry

In Spain, crack cocaine use is silently increasing. In Barcelona, an intentional sample was selected to describe the general characteristics of this consumption. Participants were submitted to an interview and data were analyzed through qualitative research procedures. Users are young males and of low socioeconomic status and formal education. The major pattern of use is compulsive. Illegal income activities are the choice for crack cocaine or money acquisition, increasing individual and social health costs. Polydrug use is a matter of concern. Although these findings can not be generalized, they should be considered for the development of public policies to adequately address crack cocaine users` needs.