The influence of ARIMA-GARCH parameters in feed forward neural networks prediction

The objective of this article is to find out the influence of the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models in the prediction of artificial neural networks (ANN) of the feed forward type, trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, through Monte Carlo simulations. The paper presents a study of the relationship between ANN performance and ARIMA-GARCH model parameters, i.e. the fact that depending on the stationarity and other parameters of the time series, the ANN structure should be selected differently. Neural networks have been widely used to predict time series and their capacity for dealing with non-linearities is a normally outstanding advantage. However, the values of the parameters of the models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity have an influence on ANN prediction performance. The combination of the values of the GARCH parameters with the ARIMA autoregressive terms also implies in ANN performance variation. Combining the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models and changing the ANN`s topologies, we used the Theil inequality coefficient to measure the prediction of the feed forward ANN.

Do synergies improve accuracy? A study of speed-accuracy trade-offs during finger force production

We explored possible effects of negative covariation among finger forces in multifinger accurate force production tasks on the classical Fitts's speed-accuracy trade-off. Healthy subjects performed cyclic force changes between pairs of targets ""as quickly and accurately as possible."" Tasks with two force amplitudes and six ratics of force amplitude to target size were performed by each of the four fingers of the right hand and four finger combinations. There was a close to linear relation between movement time and the log-transformed ratio of target amplitude to target size across all finger combinations. There was a close to linear relation between standard deviation of force amplitude and movement time. There were no differences between the performance of either of the two ""radial"" fingers (index and middle) and the multifinger tasks. The ""ulnar"" fingers (little and ring) showed higher indices of variability and longer movement times as compared with both ""radial"" fingers and multifinger combinations. We conclude that potential effects of the negative covariation and also of the task-sharing across a set of fingers are counterbalanced by an increase in individual finger force variability in multifinger tasks as compared with single-finger tasks. The results speak in favor of a feed-forward model of multifinger synergies. They corroborate a hypothesis that multifinger synergies are created not to improve overall accuracy, but to allow the system larger flexibility, for example to deal with unexpected perturbations and concomitant tasks.

Neural networks and statistical analysis for classification of corneal videokeratography maps based on Zernike coefficients: a quantitative comparison

PURPOSE: The main goal of this study was to develop and compare two different techniques for classification of specific types of corneal shapes when Zernike coefficients are used as inputs. A feed-forward artificial Neural Network (NN) and discriminant analysis (DA) techniques were used. METHODS: The inputs both for the NN and DA were the first 15 standard Zernike coefficients for 80 previously classified corneal elevation data files from an Eyesys System 2000 Videokeratograph (VK), installed at the Departamento de Oftalmologia of the Escola Paulista de Medicina, São Paulo. The NN had 5 output neurons which were associated with 5 typical corneal shapes: keratoconus, with-the-rule astigmatism, against-the-rule astigmatism, "regular" or "normal" shape and post-PRK. RESULTS: The NN and DA responses were statistically analyzed in terms of precision ([true positive+true negative]/total number of cases). Mean overall results for all cases for the NN and DA techniques were, respectively, 94% and 84.8%. CONCLUSION: Although we used a relatively small database, results obtained in the present study indicate that Zernike polynomials as descriptors of corneal shape may be a reliable parameter as input data for diagnostic automation of VK maps, using either NN or DA.

Identification of the biodiesel source using an electronic nose

Biodiesel is an important new alternative fuel. The feedstock used and the process employed determines whether it fulfills the required specifications. In this work, an identification method is proposed using an electronic nose (e-nose). Four samples of biodiesel from different sources and one of petrodiesel were analyzed and well-recognized by the e-nose. Both pure biodiesel and B20 blends were studied. Furthermore, an innovative semiquantitative method is proposed on the basis of the smellprints correlated by a feed-forward artificial neural network. The results have demonstrated that the e-nose can be used to identify the biodiesel source and as a preliminary quantitative assay in place of expensive equipment.

Synergistic acceleration of thyroid hormone degradation by phenobarbital and the PPAR alpha agonist WY14643 in rat hepatocytes

Energy balance is maintained by controlling both energy intake and energy expenditure. Thyroid hormones play a crucial role in regulating energy expenditure. Their levels are adjusted by a tight feed back-control led regulation of thyroid hormone production/incretion and by their hepatic metabolism. Thyroid hormone degradation has previously been shown to be enhanced by treatment with phenobarbital or other antiepileptic drugs due to a CAR-dependent induction of phase 11 enzymes of xenobiotic metabolism. We have recently shown, that PPAR alpha agonists synergize with phenobarbital to induce another prototypical CAR target gene, CYP2B1. Therefore, it was tested whether a PPAR alpha agonist could enhance the phenobarbital-dependent acceleration of thyroid hormone elimination. In primary cultures of rat hepatocytes the apparent half-life of T3 was reduced after induction with a combination of phenobarbital and the PPARa agonist WY14643 to a larger extent than after induction with either Compound alone. The synergistic reduction of the half-life could be attributed to a synergistic induction of CAR and the CAR target genes that code for enzymes and transporters involved in the hepatic elimination of T3, such as OATP1A1, OATP1A3, UGT1A3 and UCT1A10. The PPAR alpha-dependent CAR induction and the subsequent induction of T3-eliminating enzymes might be of physiological significance for the fasting-incluced reduction in energy expenditure by fatty acids as natural PPARa ligands. The synergism of the PPAR alpha agonist WY14643 and phenobarbital in inducing thyroid hormone breakdown might serve as a paradigm for the synergistic disruption of endocrine control by other combinations of xenobiotics. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tube feeding with a diabetes-specific feed for 12 weeks improves glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes patients

Background and aims: Assess longer-term (12 weeks) effects of a diabetes-specific feed on postprandial glucose response, glycaemic control (HbA1c), lipid profile, (pre)-albumin, clinical course and tolerance in diabetic patients. Methods: In this randomized, controlled, double-blind, parallel group study 25 type 2 diabetic patients on tube feeding were included. Patients received a soy-protein based, multi-fibre diabetes-specific feed or isocaloric, fibre-containing standard feed for 12 weeks, while continuing on their anti-diabetic medication. At the beginning, after 6 and 12 weeks, several (glycaemic) parameters were assessed. Results: The postprandial glucose response (iAUC) to the diabetes-specific feed was lower at the 1st assessment compared with the standard feed (p = 0.008) and this difference did not change over time. HbA1c decreased over time in the diabetes-specific and not in the standard feed group (treatment*time:p = 0.034): 6.9 +/- 0.3% (mean +/- SEM) at baseline vs. 6.2 +/- 0.4% at 12 weeks in the diabetes-specific group compared to 7.9 +/- 0.3% to 8.7 +/- 0.4% in the standard feed group. No significant treatment*time effect was found for fasting glucose, insulin, (pre-) albumin or lipid profile, except for increase of HDL in the diabetes-specific group. Conclusions: The diabetes-specific feed studied significantly improved longer-term glycaemic control in diabetic patients. This was achieved in addition to on-going anti-diabetic medication and may affect clinical outcome. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism.

Control of interceptive actions is based on expectancy of time to target arrival

In this study the hypothesis that interceptive movements are controlled on the basis of expectancy of time to target arrival was tested. The study was conducted through assessment of temporal errors and kinematics of interceptive movements to a moving virtual target. Initial target velocity was kept unchanged in part of the trials, and in the others it was decreased 300 ms before the due time of target arrival at the interception position, increasing in 100 ms time to target arrival. Different probabilities of velocity decrease ranging from 25 to 100% were compared. The results revealed that while there were increasing errors between probabilities of 25 and 75% for unchanged target velocity, the opposite relationship was observed for target velocity decrease. Kinematic analysis indicated that movement timing adjustments to target velocity decrease were made online. These results support the conception that visuomotor integration in the interception of moving targets is mediated by an internal forward model whose weights can be flexibly adjusted according to expectancy of time to target arrival.

Mechanistic approach to predict real machining time for milling free-form geometries applying high feed rate

An accurate estimate of machining time is very important for predicting delivery time, manufacturing costs, and also to help production process planning. Most commercial CAM software systems estimate the machining time in milling operations simply by dividing the entire tool path length by the programmed feed rate. This time estimate differs drastically from the real process time because the feed rate is not always constant due to machine and computer numerical controlled (CNC) limitations. This study presents a practical mechanistic method for milling time estimation when machining free-form geometries. The method considers a variable called machine response time (MRT) which characterizes the real CNC machine`s capacity to move in high feed rates in free-form geometries. MRT is a global performance feature which can be obtained for any type of CNC machine configuration by carrying out a simple test. For validating the methodology, a workpiece was used to generate NC programs for five different types of CNC machines. A practical industrial case study was also carried out to validate the method. The results indicated that MRT, and consequently, the real machining time, depends on the CNC machine`s potential: furthermore, the greater MRT, the larger the difference between predicted milling time and real milling time. The proposed method achieved an error range from 0.3% to 12% of the real machining time, whereas the CAM estimation achieved from 211% to 1244% error. The MRT-based process is also suggested as an instrument for helping in machine tool benchmarking.

Robust Control of Flight Simulator Motion Base

The purpose of this study is to apply robust inverse dynamics control for a six-degree-of-freedom flight simulator motion system. From an implementation viewpoint, simplification of the inverse dynamics control law is introduced by assuming control law matrices as constants. The robust control strategy is applied in the outer loop of the inverse dynamic control to counteract the effects of imperfect compensation due this simplification. The control strategy is designed using the Lyapunov stability theory. Forward and inverse kinematics and a full dynamic model of a six-degree-of-freedom motion base driven by electromechanical actuators are briefly presented. A describing function, acceleration step response and some maneuvers computed from the washout filter were used to evaluate the performance of the controllers.

Feeding Dietary Mannan Oligosaccharides to Juvenile Nile Tilapis, Oreochromis niloticus, Has No Effect on Hematological Parameters and Showed Decreased Feed Consumption

Impaired immune system by environmental stressors can lead fishes to be more susceptible to diseases that limit the economic development of aquaculture systems. This study was set out to determine the effect of six levels of mannan oligosaccharides (MOS; ActiveMOS((R)); Biorigin, Lencois Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil) on the performance index and hematology of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus juveniles. Fish (13.62 g) were randomly distributed into 18 plastic aquaria (300 L; 20 fishes per aquarium) and fed during 45 d with a commercial diet supplemented with 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1% dietary MOS, in a totally randomized design trial (n = 3); biometrical and hematological data were collected and analyzed. There were no significant differences in hematological parameters between fish fed control and MOS supplementation diets, and daily feed consumption (FC) decreased (P < 0.05) with increasing levels of dietary MOS. Dietary MOS did not increase leukocyte count and presented negative effects on FC of Nile tilapia. At 0.4% MOS supplementation, the individual weight gain was higher in absolute values but not different (P > 0.05) compared to control diet.

Development and Validation of a Simple Method for Routine Analysis of Ractopamine Hydrochloride in Raw Material and Feed Additives by HPLC

A simple method was optimized and validated for determination of ractopamine hydrochloride (RAC) in raw material and feed additives by HPLC for use in quality control in veterinary industries. The best-optimized conditions were a C8 column (250 x 4.6 mm id, 5.0 mu m particle size) at room temperature with acetonitrile-100 mM sodium acetate buffer (pH 5.0; 75 + 25, v/v) mobile phase at a flow rate of 1.0 mL/min and UV detection at 275 nm. With these conditions, the retention time of RAC was around 5.2 min, and standard curves were linear in the concentration range of 160-240 mu g/mL (correlation coefficient >= 0.999). Validation parameters, such as selectivity, linearity, limit of detection (ranged from 1.60 to 2.05 mu g/mL), limit of quantification (ranged from 4.26 to 6.84 mu g/mL), precision (relative standard deviation <= 1.87%), accuracy (ranged from 96.97 to 100.54%), and robustness, gave results within acceptable ranges. Therefore, the developed method can be successfully applied for the routine quality control analysis of raw material and feed additives.

Accuracy of store-and-forward diagnosis in leproy

Telemedicine might increase the speed of diagnosis for leprosy and reduce the development of disabilities. We compared the accuracy of diagnosis made by telemedicine with that made by in-person examination. The cases were patients with suspected leprosy at eight public health clinics in outlying areas of the city of Sao Paulo. The case history and clinical examination data, and at least two clinical images for each patient, were stored in a web-based system developed for teledermatology. After the examination in the public clinic, patients then attended a teaching hospital for an in-person examination. The benchmark was the clinical examination of two dermatologists at the university hospital. From August 2005 to April 2006, 142 suspected cases of leprosy were forwarded to the website by the doctors at the clinics. Of these, 36 cases were excluded. There was overall agreement in the diagnosis of leprosy in 74% of the 106 remaining cases. The sensitivity was 78% and the specificity was 31%. Although the specificity was low, the study suggests that telemedicine may be a useful low-cost method for obtaining second opinions in programmes to control leprosy.

Control of erosive tooth wear: possibilities and rationale

Dental erosion is a type of wear caused by non bacterial acids or chelation. There is evidence of a significant increase in the prevalence of dental wear in the deciduous and permanent teeth as a consequence of the frequent intake of acidic foods and drinks, or due to gastric acid which may reach the oral cavity following reflux or vomiting episodes. The presence of acids is a prerequisite for dental erosion, but the erosive wear is complex and depends on the interaction of biological, chemical and behavioral factors. Even though erosion may be defined or described as an isolated process, in clinical situations other wear phenomena are expected to occur concomitantly, such as abrasive wear (which occurs, e.g, due to tooth brushing or mastication). In order to control dental loss due to erosive wear it is crucial to take into account its multifactorial nature, which predisposes some individuals to the condition.

Proposal for the teaching of the chemical control of supragingival biofilm

The mechanical control of supragingival biofilm is accepted as one of the most important measures to treat and prevent dental caries and periodontal diseases. Nevertheless, maintaining dental surfaces biofilm-free is not an easy task. In this regard, chemical agents, mainly in the form of mouthwashes, have been studied to help overcome the difficulties involved in the mechanical control of biofilm. The aim of this paper was to discuss proposals for the teaching of supragingival chemical control (SCC) in order to improve dentists' knowledge regarding this clinical issue. Firstly, the literature regarding the efficacy of antiseptics is presented, clearly showing that chemical agents are clinically effective in the reduction of biofilm and gingival inflammation when used as adjuvant agents to mechanical control. Thus, it is suggested that the content related to SCC be included in the curricular grid of dental schools. Secondly, some essential topics are recommended to be included in the teaching of SCC as follows: skills and competencies expected of a graduate dentist regarding SCC; how to include this content in the curricular grid; teaching-learning tools and techniques to be employed; and program content.

Uso de ácido benzoico na dieta de leitões

Um experimento foi conduzido com o objetivo de avaliar os efeitos da inclusão de ácido benzoico (Vevovitall®) na dieta sobre o desempenho e a morfologia intestinal do duodeno de leitões de 28 a 70 dias de idade. Foram utilizados 160 leitões Dalland × Penarlan desmamados aos 21 dias de idade, separados por sexo. O experimento foi dividido em fases pré-inicial 1 (28 a 35 dias de idade), pré-inicial 2 (36 a 46 dias de idade) e fase inicial (47 a 70 dias idade). Utilizou-se o delineamento experimental tipo blocos ao acaso com 5 tratamentos, cada um com 8 repetições de 4 animais, totalizando 40 unidades experimentais. Foram utilizados quatro níveis de ácido benzoico (0; 0,25; 0,50 e 0,75%) e um tratamento testemunha com ácido fumárico. Abateram-se, aos 70 dias de idade, dois animais por repetição para coleta de amostras do duodeno e estudo da morfologia intestinal e um animal por repetição para estudo de lesões gástricas. Foram avaliadas as características de desempenho (ganho de peso, consumo de ração e conversão alimentar) para cada fase e para o período total. Como características morfológicas, foram avaliadas a altura das vilosidades, a profundidade de criptas e a relação altura de vilosidades/profundidade de criptas. Avaliou-se ainda a incidência de diarreia. No período de 28 a 70 dias, o uso de ácido benzoico influencia o desempenho de suínos, que neste estudo foi melhor os níveis de 0,50 e 0,75%, e reduz a incidência de diarreia. Animais alimentados com dietas contendo ácido benzoico apresentam maior altura de vilosidade e profundidade de criptas.