Bayesian updating rules in continuous opinion dynamics models

Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

STRUCTURAL INTERDEPENDENCE AMONG COLOMBIAN DEPARTMENTS

This paper analyzes structural interdependence among Colombian departments. The results show that Bogota has a large influence on the other regional economies through the power of its purchases. Additionally, a center-periphery pattern emerges in the spatial concentration of the effects of the hypothetical extraction of any territory. From a policy point of view, the main findings reaffirm the role played by Bogota in the recent polarization process observed in the regional economies in Colombia. Any policy action oriented to reduce these regional disparities should take into account that, given the structural interdependence among Colombian departments, the effects of new investment in the lagged regions would flow through Bogota and the major regional economies.

Loss of Ergodicity in the Transition from Annealed to Quenched Disorder in a Finite Kinetic Ising Model

We consider a kinetic Ising model which represents a generic agent-based model for various types of socio-economic systems. We study the case of a finite (and not necessarily large) number of agents N as well as the asymptotic case when the number of agents tends to infinity. The main ingredient are individual decision thresholds which are either fixed over time (corresponding to quenched disorder in the Ising model, leading to nonlinear deterministic dynamics which are generically non-ergodic) or which may change randomly over time (corresponding to annealed disorder, leading to ergodic dynamics). We address the question how increasing the strength of annealed disorder relative to quenched disorder drives the system from non-ergodic behavior to ergodicity. Mathematically rigorous analysis provides an explicit and detailed picture for arbitrary realizations of the quenched initial thresholds, revealing an intriguing ""jumpy"" transition from non-ergodicity with many absorbing sets to ergodicity. For large N we find a critical strength of annealed randomness, above which the system becomes asymptotically ergodic. Our theoretical results suggests how to drive a system from an undesired socio-economic equilibrium (e. g. high level of corruption) to a desirable one (low level of corruption).

Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil

This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin-destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.

Chronic Diseases: Chronic Diseases and Development 2 Health, agricultural, and economic effects of adoption of healthy diet recommendations

Transition to diets that are high in saturated fat and sugar has caused a global public health concern as the pattern of food consumption is a mayor modifiable risk factor for chronic non-communicable diseases Although agri food systems are intimately associated with this transition, agriculture and health sectors are largely disconnected in their priorities policy, and analysis with neither side considering the complex inter relation between agri trade patterns of food consumption health, and development We show the importance of connection of these perspectives through estimation of the effect of adopting a healthy diet on population health, agricultural production trade the economy and livelihoods, with a computable general equilibrium approach On the basis of case studies from the UK and Brazil we suggest that benefits of a healthy diet policy will vary substantially between different populations, not only because of population dietary intake but also because of agricultural production trade and other economic factors

Influence of different adhesive systems on the pull-out bond strength of glass fiber posts

This in vitro study evaluated the tensile bond strength of glass fiber posts (Reforpost - Angelus-Brazil) cemented to root dentin with a resin cement (RelyX ARC - 3M/ESPE) associated with two different adhesive systems (Adper Single Bond - 3M/ESPE and Adper Scotchbond Multi Purpose (MP) Plus - 3M/ESPE), using the pull-out test. Twenty single-rooted human teeth with standardized root canals were randomly assigned to 2 groups (n=10): G1- etching with 37% phosphoric acid gel (3M/ESPE) + Adper Single Bond + #1 post (Reforpost - Angelus) + four #1 accessory posts (Reforpin - Angelus) + resin cement; G2- etching with 37% phosphoric acid gel + Adper Scotchbond MP Plus + #1 post + four #1 accessory posts + resin cement. The specimens were stored in distilled water at 37°C for 7 days and submitted to the pull-out test in a universal testing machine (EMIC) at a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm/min. The mean values of bond strength (kgf) and standard deviation were: G1- 29.163 ± 7.123; G2- 37.752 ±13.054. Statistical analysis (Student's t-test; a=0.05 showed no statistically significant difference (p<0.05) between the groups. Adhesive bonding failures between resin cement and root canal dentin surface were observed in both groups, with non-polymerized resin cement in the apical portion of the post space when Single Bond was used (G1). The type of adhesive system employed on the fiber post cementation did not influence the pull-out bond strength.

Shear bond strength of self-etch and total-etch bonding systems at different dentin depths

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the dentin shear bond strength of four adhesive systems (Adper Single Bond 2, Adper Prompt L-Pop, Magic Bond DE and Self Etch Bond) in regards to buccal and lingual surfaces and dentin depth. Forty extracted third molars had roots removed and crowns bisected in the mesiodistal direction. The buccal and lingual surfaces were fixed in a PVC/acrylic resin ring and were divided into buccal and lingual groups assigned to each selected adhesive. The same specimens prepared for the evaluation of superficial dentin shear resistance were used to evaluate the different depths of dentin. The specimens were identified and abraded at depths of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 mm. Each depth was evaluated by ISO TR 11405 using an EMIC-2000 machine regulated at 0.5 mm/min with a 200 Kgf load cell. We performed statistical analyses on the results (ANOVA, Tukey and Scheffé tests). Data revealed statistical differences (p < 0.01) in the adhesive and depth variation as well as adhesive/depth interactions. The Adper Single Bond 2 demonstrated the highest mean values of shear bond strength. The Prompt L-Pop product, a self-etching adhesive, revealed higher mean values compared with Magic Bond DE and Self Etch Bond adhesives, a total and self-etching adhesive respectively. It may be concluded that the shear bond strength of dentin is dependent on material (adhesive system), substrate depth and adhesive/depth interaction.

Comparative study of chemical and mechanical retentive systems for bonding of indirect composite resin to commercially pure titanium

This study evaluated the effect of chemical and mechanical surface treatments for cast metal alloys on the bond strength of an indirect composite resin (Artglass) to commercially pure titanium (cpTi). Thirty cylindrical metal rods (3 mm diameter x 60 mm long) were cast in grade-1 cpTi and randomly assigned to 6 groups (n=5) according to the received surface treatment: sandblasting; chemical treatment; mechanical treatment - 0.4 mm beads; mechanical treatment - 0.6 mm beads; chemical/mechanical treatment - 0.4 mm; and chemical/mechanical treatment - 0.6 mm beads. Artglass rings (6.0 mm diameter x 2.0 mm thick) were light cured around the cpTi rods, according manufacturer's specifications. The specimens were invested in hard gypsum and their bond strength (in MPa) to the rods was measured at fracture with a universal testing machine at a crosshead speed of 2.0 mm/min and 500 kgf load cell. Data were analyzed statistically by one-way ANOVA and Tukey test (a=5%). The surface treatments differed significantly from each other (p<0.05) regarding the recorded bond strengths. Chemical retention and sandblasting showed statistically similar results to each other (p=0.139) and both had significantly lower bond strengths (p<0.05) than the other treatments. In conclusion, mechanical retention, either associated or not to chemical treatment, provided higher bond strength of the indirect composite resin to cpTi.

Bond strength of a pit-and-fissure sealant associated to etch-and-rinse and self-etching adhesive systems to saliva-contaminated enamel: individual vs. simultaneous light curing

This study evaluated in vitro the shear bond strength (SBS) of a resin-based pit-and-fissure sealant [Fluroshield (F), Dentsply/Caulk] associated with either an etch-and-rinse [Adper Single Bond 2 (SB), 3M/ESPE] or a self-etching adhesive system [Clearfil S3 Bond (S3), Kuraray Co., Ltd.] to saliva-contaminated enamel, comparing two curing protocols: individual light curing of the adhesive system and the sealant or simultaneous curing of both materials. Mesial and distal enamel surfaces from 45 sound third molars were randomly assigned to 6 groups (n=15), according to the bonding technique: I - F was applied to 37% phosphoric acid etched enamel. The other groups were contaminated with fresh human saliva (0.01 mL; 10 s) after acid etching: II - SB and F were light cured separately; III - SB and F were light cured together; IV - S3 and F were light cured separately; V - S3 and F were light cured simultaneously; VI - F was applied to saliva-contaminated, acid-etched enamel without an intermediate bonding agent layer. SBS was tested to failure in a universal testing machine at 0.5 mm/min. Data were analyzed by one-way ANOVA and Fisher's test (α=0.05).The debonded specimens were examined with a stereomicroscope to assess the failure modes. Three representative specimens from each group were observed under scanning electron microscopy for a qualitative analysis. Mean SBS in MPa were: I-12.28 (±4.29); II-8.57 (±3.19); III-7.97 (±2.16); IV-12.56 (±3.11); V-11.45 (±3.77); and VI-7.47 (±1.99). In conclusion, individual or simultaneous curing of the intermediate bonding agent layer and the resin sealant did not seem to affect bond strength to saliva-contaminated enamel. S3/F presented significantly higher SBS than the that of the groups treated with SB etch-and-rinse adhesive system and similar SBS to that of the control group, in which the sealant was applied under ideal dry, noncontaminated conditions.

Influence of light-curing unit systems on shear bond strength and marginal microleakage of composite resin restorations

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the influence of different photopolymerization (halogen, halogen soft-start and LED) systems on shear bond strength (SBS) and marginal microleakage of composite resin restorations. Forty Class V cavities (enamel and dentin margins) were prepared for microleakage assessment, and 160 enamel and dentin fragments were prepared for the SBS test, and divided into 4 groups. Kruskal-Wallis and Wilcoxon tests showed statistically significant difference in microleakage between the margins (p < 0.01) with incisal margins presenting the lowest values. Among the groups, it was observed that, only at the cervical margin, halogen soft-start photo polymerization presented statistically significant higher microleakage values. For SBS test, ANOVA showed no statistical difference (p > 0.05) neither between substrates nor among groups. It was concluded that Soft-Start technique with high intensity end-light influenced negatively the cervical marginal sealing, but the light-curing systems did not influence adhesion.

Coronal and apical leakage analysis of two different root canal obturation systems

This study compared the coronal and apical leakage of AH Plus with gutta-percha to that of Epiphany with Resilon. Twenty-four single rooted teeth were instrumented and divided into 2 groups according to the solutions for smear layer removal and the obturation materials employed: Group A - 17% EDTA-T and AH Plus with gutta-percha; Group B - primer and Epiphany with Resilon. The Group B specimens were light-cured in the coronal area for 20 s. The external root surfaces were covered with a double layer of ethyl cyanoacrylate, except for the apical foramen and the cavity access. The teeth were immersed in 0.5% methylene blue for 48 h. The specimens were rinsed, dried and axially split for dye penetration measurement with the ImageLab 2.3 software. The t-test showed no significant differences for coronal leakage between the groups, but there were significant differences for apical leakage between the groups (P < 0.05). AH Plus with gutta-percha and Epiphany with Resilon provided the same coronal seal, whereas Epiphany with Resilon provided the best apical seal.

Influence of intrapulpal pressure simulation on the bond strength of adhesive systems to dentin

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of intrapulpal pressure simulation on the bonding effectiveness of etch & rinse and self-etch adhesives to dentin. Eighty sound human molars were distributed into eight groups, according to the permeability level of each sample, measured by an apparatus to assess hydraulic conductance (Lp). Thus, a similar mean permeability was achieved in each group. Three etch & rinse adhesives (Prime & Bond NT - PB, Single Bond -SB, and Excite - EX) and one self-etch system (Clearfil SE Bond - SE) were employed, varying the presence or absence of an intrapulpal pressure (IPP) simulation of 15 cmH2O. After adhesive and restorative procedures were carried out, the samples were stored in distilled water for 24 hours at 37°C, and taken for tensile bond strength (TBS) testing. Fracture analysis was performed using a light microscope at 40 X magnification. The data, obtained in MPa, were then submitted to the Kruskal-Wallis test ( a = 0.05). The results revealed that the TBS of SB and EX was significantly reduced under IPP simulation, differing from the TBS of PB and SE. Moreover, SE obtained the highest bond strength values in the presence of IPP. It could be concluded that IPP simulation can influence the bond strength of certain adhesive systems to dentin and should be considered when in vitro studies are conducted.

Effect of different polishing systems on the surface roughness of microhybrid composites

The use of composite resins in dentistry is well accepted for restoring anterior and posterior teeth. Many polishing protocols have been evaluated for their effect on the surface roughness of restorative materials. This study compared the effect of different polishing systems on the surface roughness of microhybrid composites. Thirty-six specimens were prepared for each composite $#91;Charisma® (Heraeus Kulzer), Fill Magic® (Vigodent), TPH Spectrum® (Dentsply), Z100® (3M/ESPE) and Z250® (3M/ESPE)] and submitted to surface treatment with Enhance® and PoGo® (Dentsply) points, sequential Sof-Lex XT® aluminum oxide disks (3M/ESPE), and felt disks (TDV) combined with Excel® diamond polishing paste (TDV). Average surface roughness (Ra) was measured with a mechanical roughness tester. The data were analyzed by two-way ANOVA with repetition of the factorial design and the Tukey-Kramer test (p<0.01). The F-test result for treatments and resins was high (p<0.0001 for both), indicating that the effect of the treatment applied to the specimen surface and the effect of the type of resin on surface roughness was highly significant. Regarding the interaction between polishing system and type of resin used, a p value of 0.0002 was obtained, indicating a statistically significant difference. A Ra of 1.3663 was obtained for the Sof-Lex/TPH Spectrum interaction. In contrast, the Ra for the felt disk+paste/Z250 interactions was 0.1846. In conclusion, Sof-Lex polishing system produced a higher surface roughness on TPH Spectrum resin when compared to the other interactions.

Production and body composition traits of broilers in relation to breast weight evaluated by path analysis

Breast weight has great economic importance in poultry industry, and may be associated with other variables. This work aimed to estimate phenotypic correlations between performance (live body weight at 7 and 28 days, and at slaughter, and depth of the breast muscle measured by ultrasonography), carcass (eviscerated body weight and leg weight) and body composition (heart, liver and abdominal fat weight) traits in a broiler line, and quantify the direct and indirect influence of these traits on breast weight. Path analysis was used by expanding the matrix of partial correlation in coefficients which give the direct influence of one trait on another, regardless the effect of the other traits. The simultaneous maintenance of live body weight at slaughter and eviscerated body weight in the matrix of correlations might be harmful for statistical analysis involving systems of normal equations, like path analysis, due to the observed multicollinearity. The live body weight at slaughter and the depth of the breast muscle as measured by ultrasonography directly affected breast weight and were identified as the most responsible factors for the magnitude of the correlation coefficients obtained between the studied traits and breast weight. Individual pre-selection for these traits could favor an increased breast weight in the future reproducer candidates of this line if the broilers' environmental conditions and housing are maintained, since the live body weight at slaughter and the depth of breast muscle measured by ultrasonography were directly related to breast weight.

Economic impact of treatment for surgical site infections in cases of total knee arthroplasty in a tertiary public hospital in Brazil

The aim of this study was to estimate the additional cost of treatment of a group of nosocomial infections in a tertiary public hospital. A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted by means of analyzing the medical records of 34 patients with infection after total knee arthroplasty, diagnosed in 2006 and 2007, who met the criteria for nosocomial infection according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To estimate the direct costs of treatment for these patients, the following data were gathered: length of hospital stay, laboratory tests, imaging examinations, and surgical procedures performed. Their costs were estimated from the minimum values according to the Brazilian Medical Association. The estimated cost of the antibiotics used was also obtained. The total length of stay in the ward was 976 days, at a cost of US$ 18,994.63, and, in the intensive care unit, it was 34 days at a cost of US$ 5,031.37. Forty-two debridement procedures were performed, at a cost of US$ 5,798.06, and 1965 tests (laboratory and imaging) were also performed, at a cost of US$ 15,359.25. US$ 20,845.01 was spent on antibiotics and US$ 1,735.16 on vacuum assisted closure therapy, microsurgical flaps, implant removal, spacer use, and surgical revision. The total additional cost of these cases of hospital infection in 2006 and 2007 was of US$ 91,843.75. Based on that, we demonstrate that the high cost of treatment for hospital infections emphasizes the importance of taking measures to prevent and control hospital infection.