Scale-free network of a dengue epidemic

In this work we show that the dengue epidemic in the city of Singapore organized itself into a scale-free network of transmission as the 2000-2005 outbreaks progressed. This scale-free network of cluster comprised geographical breeding places for the aedes mosquitoes, acting as super-spreaders nodes in a network of transmission. The geographical organization of the network was analysed by the corresponding distribution of weekly number of new cases. Therefore, our hypothesis is that the distribution of dengue cases reflects the geographical organization of a transmission network, which evolved towards a power law as the epidemic intensity progressed until 2005. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolução temporal da dengue no município de Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, 1994 a 2003

Este estudo caracteriza-se epidemiológico-descritivo com objetivo de descrever a evolução temporal dos casos de dengue em Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, no período de 1994 a 2003, segundo mês de ocorrência e sexo. Os dados foram obtidos junto às fichas de notificação compulsória fornecidas pela Vigilância Epidemiológica da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do município. Foram obtidos os coeficientes de incidência por 100.000 habitantes, segundo estimativas populacionais do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. O município viveu uma epidemia de dengue no ano de 2001, quando o coeficiente de incidência chegou a 619,65 casos/100.000 habitantes, sendo que dentre os 5.553 casos encontrados no período estudado, 0,07% ocorreram no ano de 1994, 3,68% em 1995, 4,52% em 1996, 2,40% em 1997, 1,82% em 1998, 5,73% em 1999, 3,75% em 2000, 57,37% em 2001, 6,25% em 2002 e, 14,39% em 2003 . Os meses do ano de maior ocorrência da doença foram de janeiro a maio. Em relação à variável sexo, a proporção entre o número de casos foi de aproximadamente 1:1, mostrando pequenas flutuações de casos de dengue entre homens e mulheres, para todo período estudado. Os resultados apontam a necessidade do desenvolvimento de estudos sobre a temática e reforçam o papel das instituições de ensino na questão da dengue no nosso país.

Characterization of Dengue Virus Type 2: New Insights on the 2010 Brazilian Epidemic

Dengue viruses (DENV) serotypes 1, 2, and 3 have been causing yearly outbreaks in Brazil. In this study, we report the reintroduction of DENV2 in the coast of Sao Paulo State. Partial envelope viral genes were sequenced from eighteen patients with dengue fever during the 2010 epidemic. Phylogenetic analysis showed this strain belongs to the American/Asian genotype and was closely related to the virus that circulated in Rio de Janeiro in 2007 and 2008. The phylogeny also showed no clustering by clinical presentation, suggesting that the disease severity could not be explained by distinct variants or genotypes. The time of the most recent common ancestor of American/Asian genotype and the Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro (SP/RJ) monophyletic cluster was estimated to be around 40 and 10 years, respectively. Since this virus was first identified in Brazil in 2007, we suggest that it was already circulating in the country before causing the first documented outbreak. This is the first description of the 2010 outbreak in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and should contribute to efforts to control and monitor the spread of DENVs in endemic areas.

Threat of Dengue to Blood Safety in Dengue-Endemic Countries

Dengue, the most common arbovirus infection globally, is transmitted by mosquito vectors. Healthcare-related transmission, including transmission by blood products, has been documented, although the frequency of these occurrences is unknown. Dengue is endemic to Singapore, a city-state in Asia. Using mathematical modeling, we estimated the risk for dengue-infected blood transfusions in Singapore in 2005 to be 1.625-6/10,000 blood transfusions, assuming a ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic infections of 2:1 to 10:1. However, the level of viremia required to cause clinical dengue cases is person-dependent and unknown. Further studies are needed to establish the magnitude of the threat that dengue poses to blood safety in countries where it is endemic. It will then be possible to assess whether screening is feasible and to identify approaches that are most cost-effective on the basis of characteristics of local populations and seasonality of dengue.

Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore

Notified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13 817 cases) and the reason for such all increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004-2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient ill preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.

Triagem sorológica e influência do conhecimento sobre a dengue em pacientes do ambulatório de especialidades do SUS

INTRODUÇÃO: A dengue é causa de preocupação em países como o Brasil. OBJETIVO: Verificar a soropositividade dos pacientes do ambulatório de especialidades do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) para anticorpos antidengue, relacionando os resultados com os dados sociodemográficos. METODOLOGIA: Foram respondidos 184 questionários de avaliação sociodemográfica e de conhecimento sobre a transmissão da dengue. Foi utilizado o método de imunoensaio enzimático (ELISA) para pesquisar imunoglobulina da classe M (IgM) e da classe G (IgG) contra os vírus. RESULTADOS: Quinze por cento dos pacientes apresentaram IgG contra o vírus, sem a presença de IgM. CONCLUSÃO: Os pacientes demonstraram conhecimento sobre a doença e sua prevenção, independentemente da classe econômica. A infecção assintomática deve ser avaliada, principalmente nos casos de doença febril.

A fuzzy reed-frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization

Detection of a new mumps virus genotype during parotitis epidemic of 2006-2007 in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Nucleotide sequence analyses of the SH gene of 18 mumps virus isolates collected in the 2006-2007 parotitis epidemic in the state of São Paulo identified a new genotype, designated genotype M. This new designation fulfills all the parameters required to define a new mumps virus genotype. The parameters were established by an expert panel in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2005. This information will enhance the mumps virus surveillance program both at the national and global levels

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

New Genotype of Dengue Type 3 Virus Circulating in Brazil and Colombia Showed a Close Relationship to Old Asian Viruses

Dengue type 3 genotype V viruses have been recently detected in Brazil and Colombia. In this study, we described another Brazilian isolate belonging to this genotype. Phylogenetic analysis including dengue type 3 viruses isolated worldwide showed that Brazilian and Colombian viruses were closely related to viruses isolated in Asia more than two decades ago. The characteristic evolutionary pattern of dengue type 3 virus cannot explain the close similarity of new circulating viruses with old viruses. Further studies are needed to confirm the origin of the new dengue type III genotype circulating in Brazil and Colombia.

Spatio-Temporal Tracking and Phylodynamics of an Urban Dengue 3 Outbreak in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The dengue virus has a single-stranded positive-sense RNA genome of similar to 10.700 nucleotides with a single open reading frame that encodes three structural (C, prM, and E) and seven nonstructural (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) proteins. It possesses four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV 1-4). Many phylogenetic studies address particularities of the different serotypes using convenience samples that are not conducive to a spatio-temporal analysis in a single urban setting. We describe the pattern of spread of distinct lineages of DENV-3 circulating in Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil, during 2006. Blood samples from patients presenting dengue-like symptoms were collected for DENV testing. We performed M-N-PCR using primers based on NS5 for virus detection and identification. The fragments were purified from PCR mixtures and sequenced. The positive dengue cases were geo-coded. To type the sequenced samples, 52 reference sequences were aligned. The dataset generated was used for iterative phylogenetic reconstruction with the maximum likelihood criterion. The best demographic model, the rate of growth, rate of evolutionary change, and Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were estimated. The basic reproductive rate during the epidemics was estimated. We obtained sequences from 82 patients among 174 blood samples. We were able to geo-code 46 sequences. The alignment generated a 399-nucleotide-long dataset with 134 taxa. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that all samples were of DENV-3 and related to strains circulating on the isle of Martinique in 2000-2001. Sixty DENV-3 from Sao Jose do Rio Preto formed a monophyletic group (lineage 1), closely related to the remaining 22 isolates (lineage 2). We assumed that these lineages appeared before 2006 in different occasions. By transforming the inferred exponential growth rates into the basic reproductive rate, we obtained values for lineage 1 of R(0) = 1.53 and values for lineage 2 of R(0) = 1.13. Under the exponential model, TMRCA of lineage 1 dated 1 year and lineage 2 dated 3.4 years before the last sampling. The possibility of inferring the spatio-temporal dynamics from genetic data has been generally little explored, and it may shed light on DENV circulation. The use of both geographic and temporally structured phylogenetic data provided a detailed view on the spread of at least two dengue viral strains in a populated urban area.

Detection of dengue virus in saliva and urine by real time RT-PCR

Early diagnosis of dengue virus (DENV) infection is important for patient management and control of dengue outbreaks. The objective of this study was to analyze the usefulness of urine and saliva samples for early diagnosis of DENV infection by real time RT-PCR. Two febrile patients, who have been attended at the General Hospital of the School of Medicine of Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo University were included in the study. Serum, urine and saliva samples collected from both patients were subjected to real time RT-PCR for DENV detection and quantification. Dengue RNA was detected in serum, urine and saliva samples of both patients. Patient 1 was infected with DENV-2 and patient 2 with DENV-3. Data presented in this study suggest that urine and saliva could be used as alternative samples for early diagnosis of dengue virus infection when blood samples are difficult to obtain, e.g.,in newborns and patients with hemorrhagic syndromes.