Sob o signo de Darwin? Sobre o mau uso de uma quimera

No ano de 2003 Francisco de Oliveria publicou um artigo intitulado "O Ornitorrinco" no qual fez considerações críticas sobre a conjectura politico-social daquele momento histórico. Tal artigo é permeado por um paralelo entre o evolucionismo darwinista e a visão do autor sobre a sociedade brasileira contemporânea. Entretanto, ao fazer tal analogia ele incorre numa série de equívocos teóricos sobre a teoria evolucionista. Tais equívocos consistem, em grande parte, numa substuição indevida entre aquilo que ficou conhecido como Darwinismo Social e a teoria neodarwinista como entendida pelos seus atuais proponentes. O presente trabalho identifica estes equívocos e os contextualiza dentro da teoria neodarwiniana. Além disso, fazemos um recorte histórico do processo de formação do pensamento evolucionista para enfatizar que a associação entre biologia e darwinismo social é mais complexa do que geralmente se assume.

Dormancy as exaptation to protect mimetic seeds against deterioration before dispersal

Mimetic seeds simulate the appearance of fleshy fruits and arilled seeds without producing nutritive tissues as a reward for seed dispersers. In this strategy of seed dispersal, seeds may remain attached to the mother plant for long periods after maturity, increasing their availability to naive seed dispersers. The hypothesis that seed coat impermeability in many tropical Fabaceae with mimetic seeds serves as an exaptation to protect the seeds from deterioration and rotting while awaiting dispersal was investigated. Seed coat impermeability was evaluated in five mimetic-seeded species of tropical Fabaceae in south-eastern Brazil (Abarema langsdorffii, Abrus precatorius, Adenanthera pavonina, Erythrina velutina and Ormosia arborea) and in Erythrina speciosa, a `basal` species in its genus, which has monochromatic brown seeds and no mimetic displays. Seed hardness was evaluated as a defence against accelerated ageing (humid chamber at 41 degrees C for 144 h). Seed development and physiological potential of O. arborea was evaluated and the effect of holding mature seeds in pods on the mother plant in the field for a period of 1 year under humid tropical conditions was compared with seeds stored under controlled conditions (15 degrees C and 40 % relative air humidity). All five mimetic-seeded species, and E. speciosa, showed strong coat impermeability, which protected the seeds against deterioration in accelerated ageing. Most O. arborea seeds only became dormant 2 months after pod dehiscence. Germination of seeds after 1 year on the plant in a humid tropical climate was 56 %, compared with 80 % for seeds stored in controlled conditions (15 degrees C, 45 % relative humidity). Seedling shoot length after 1 year did not differ between seed sources. Dormancy acts in mimetic-seeded species as an exaptation to reduce seed deterioration, allowing an increase in their effective dispersal period and mitigating the losses incurred by low removal rates by naive avian frugivores.

Impact of the Subprime Crisis in the Provision of Credit Risk of Major National Banks

Financial institutions are directly exposed to the credit risk, that is, the risk of the borrower not fulfill with their obligations, paying their debts in its stated periods established previously. The bank predict this type of risk, including them in their balance-sheets. In 2006/2007 there was the impact of a new financial crisis that spread around the world, known as the crisis of subprime. The objective of this study is to analyze if the provisions for credit risk or liquidation increased the sprouting of the crisis of subprime in ten major national banks, chosen accordant to their total assets. To answer this question, the balance-sheets of each one of these banks in the period of 2005 to 2007 were analyzed. This research is characterized, as for its objectives, as descriptive and as for the procedures as documentary research. It is also characterized as having a qualitative approach. The results show that the crisis of subprime has caused little impact in the credit risk provision of the analyzed institutions. It was noticed a slight increase in the provision indicators at the peak of the crisis in 2006. These percentages were reduced in, 2007, probably reflecting the economic stability of Brazil and the stagnation of the crisis Of subprime in that year, at least in relation to in our country.

Nominal versus indexed debt: A quantitative horse race

The main arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debts are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortion, government outlays uncertainty, and contingent-debt service. Our framework also recognizes that contingent debt can be associated with incentive problems and lack of commitment. Thus, the benefits of unexpected inflation are tempered by higher interest rates. We obtain that costs from inflation more than offset the benefits from reducing tax distortions. We further discuss sustainability of nominal debt in developing (volatile) countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of detectability on estimates of geographic range size in bignonieae

Extinction risk has not been evaluated for 96% of all described plant species. Given that the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation proposes preliminary conservation assessments of all described plant species by 2010, herbarium specimens (i.e., primary occurrence data) are increasingly being used to infer threat components from estimates of geographic range size. Nevertheless, estimates of range size based on herbarium data may be inaccurate due to collection bias associated with interspecific variation in detectability. We used data on 377 species of Bignonieae to test the hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between detectability and estimates of geographic range size derived from herbarium specimens. This relationship is expected if the proportion of the true geographic range size of a species that is documented by herbarium specimens is given by the product of the true geographic range size and the detectability of the species, assuming no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability. We developed 4 measures of detectability that can be estimated from herbarium data and examined the relationship between detectability and 2 types of estimates of geographic range size: area of occupancy and extent of occurrence. Our results from regressing estimates of extent of occurrence and area of occupancy on detectability across genera provided no support for this hypothesis. The same was true for regressions of estimated extent of occurrence on detectability across species within genera. Nevertheless, regressions of estimated area of occupancy on detectability across species within genera provided partial support for our hypothesis. We considered 3 possible explanations for this mixed outcome: violation of the assumption of no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability; the relationships between estimated geographic range size and detectability may be an artifact of a negative relationship between estimated area of occupancy and the sampling variance of detectability; detectability may have had 2 opposite effects on estimated species range sizes: one determines the proportion of the true range of a species documented by herbarium specimens and the other determines the distribution of true range size for the species actually observed with herbarium data. Our findings should help improve understanding of the potential biases incurred with the use of herbarium data.

On the cutting stock problem under stochastic demand

This paper addresses the one-dimensional cutting stock problem when demand is a random variable. The problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic nonlinear program with recourse. The first stage decision variables are the number of objects to be cut according to a cutting pattern. The second stage decision variables are the number of holding or backordering items due to the decisions made in the first stage. The problem`s objective is to minimize the total expected cost incurred in both stages, due to waste and holding or backordering penalties. A Simplex-based method with column generation is proposed for solving a linear relaxation of the resulting optimization problem. The proposed method is evaluated by using two well-known measures of uncertainty effects in stochastic programming: the value of stochastic solution-VSS-and the expected value of perfect information-EVPI. The optimal two-stage solution is shown to be more effective than the alternative wait-and-see and expected value approaches, even under small variations in the parameters of the problem.