Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

A critical analysis of Doppler velocimetry in the differential diagnosis of malignant and benign ovarian masses

Objectives: To evaluate the intratumoral reliability of color Doppler parameters and the contribution of Doppler sonography to the gray-scale differential diagnosis of ovarian masses. Methods: An observational study was performed including 67 patients, 15 (22.4%) with malignant ovarian neoplasm and 52 (77.6%) with benign ovarian diseases. We performed the Doppler evaluation in two distinct vessels selected after decreasing the Doppler gain to sample only vessels with higher velocity flow. Doppler measurements were obtained from each identified vessel, and resistive index (RI), pulsatility index (PI), peak systolic velocity (PSV), and end-diastolic velocity (EDV) were measured. Intraclass coefficient of correlation (ICC), sensitivity, specificity, and potential improvement in gray-scale ultrasound performance were calculated. Results: The general ICC were 0.60 (95% CI 0.42- 0.73) for RI, 0.65 (95% CI 0.49- 0.77) for PI, 0.07 (95% CI- 0.17-0.30) for PSV, and 0.19 (95% CI -0.05-0.41) for EDV. The sensitivity and specificity were respectively 84.6% and 86.7% for RI, 69.2% and 93.3% for PI, 80.0% and 65.4% for gray-scale sonography, and 93.3% and 65.4% for gray-scale plus RI (p = 0.013). Conclusions: Gynecologists must be careful in interpreting results from Doppler evaluation of ovarian masses because PSV and EDV present poor intratumoral reliability. The lower RI value, evaluated in at least two distinct sites of the tumor, was able to improve the performance of gray-scale ultrasound in differential diagnosis of ovarian masses.

Tropical woods: influence of density in hardness parallel and normal to the grain for some Brazilian tropical tree species

The aim of this work is to verify the possibility to correlating specific gravity and wood hardness parallel and perpendicular to the grain. The purpose is to offer one more tool to help in the decision about wood species choice for use in floors and sleepers. To reach this intent, we considered the results of standard tests (NBR 7190:1997, Timber Structures Design, Annex B, Brazilian Association of Technical Standards) to determine hardness parallel and normal to the grain in fourteen tropical high density wood species (over 850 kg/m(3), at 12% moisture content). For each species twelve determinations were made, based on the material obtained at Sao Carlos and its regional wood market. Statistical analysis led to some expressions to describe the cited properties relationships, with a determination coefficient about 0.8.

Nitrogen and Sulfur Fertilization and Dynamics in a Brazilian Entisol under Pasture

Nutrient dynamics in tropical soils sustaining forage grasses are still poorly understood. We conducted a study to evaluate the effect of combined N and S fertilizer rates on the growth of `Marandu` palisade grass [Brachiaria brizantha (Hochst. ex A. Rich.) Stapf], uptake of these elements from the soil by plants, soil organic matter concentration, soil pH, and the mineral and organic fractions of N and S in an Entisol. Combinations of five N rates (0, 100, 200, 300, and 400 g N m(-3)) with five S rates (0, 10, 20, 30, and 40 g S m(-3)) were evaluated in a partial 5 x 5 factorial in a pot experiment, with and without plants. Nitrogen and S were supplied as NH(4)NO(3) and CaSO(4)center dot 2H(2)O, respectively. The N addition in excess did not enhance the palisade grass production due to low plant-available Sin the soil. The supply of low rates of S with N greatly improved the overall N uptake efficiency by the forage plant. The contents of total N, NO(3)(-)-N, and NH(4)(+)-N in the soil varied with N rate and with N uptake by the plants. The association of palisade grass with S fertilization increased the ester-bonded S fraction in the soil. The results suggest that soil residual S could be a potential source of S for plants. Proper N and S fertilizer rates promoted increased grass production due to increased uptake of these nutrients and the dynamics of the organic N and S fractions and mineral fractions in this tropical soil.

Chronic hyperhomocysteinemia impairs vascular function in ovariectomized rat carotid arteries

Homocysteine is an independent risk factor for coronary heart disease, as well as for cerebrovascular and peripheral vascular diseases. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of hyperhomocysteinemia (HHcy) on vascular reactivity within carotid artery segments isolated from ovariectomized female rats. Treatment with dl-Hcy thiolactone (1 g/kg body weight per day) reduced the phenylephrine-induced contraction of denuded rings. However, the treatment did not alter KCl-induced contractions, or relaxations induced by sodium nitroprusside or acetylcholine. We report elevated expressions of iNOS, eNOS, and nitrotyrosine in homocysteine-treated rat artery sections. Moreover, the inhibition of NOS by l-NAME, 1,400 W, or l-NNA restored phenylephrine-induced vasoconstriction in carotid artery segments from Hcy-treated rats. In conclusion, our findings show that severe HHCy can promote an acute decrease in the endothelium-independent contractile responses of carotid arteries to adrenergic agonists. This effect was restored by nitric oxide synthase inhibitors, which further supports the involvement of nitric oxide in HHcy-derived vascular dysfunction.

An optimization model for antibiotic use

There is a positive correlation between the intensity of use of a given antibiotic and the prevalence of resistant strains. The more you treat, more patients infected with resistant strains appears and, as a consequence, the higher the mortality due to the infection and the longer the hospitalization time. In contrast, the less you treat, the higher the mortality rates and the longer the hospitalization time of patients infected with sensitive strains that could be successfully treated. The hypothesis proposed in this paper is an attempt to solve such a conflict: there must be an optimum treatment intensity that minimizes both the additional mortality and hospitalization time due to the infection by both sensitive and resistant bacteria strains. In order to test this hypothesis we applied a simple mathematical model that allowed us to estimate the optimum proportion of patients to be treated in order to minimize the total number of deaths and hospitalization time due to the infection in a hospital setting. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The risk of chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area

Background. Chikungunya, an alphavirus of the Togaviridae family, causes a febrile disease transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. This infection is reaching endemic levels in many Southeast Asian countries. Symptoms include sudden onset of fever, chills, headache, nausea, vomiting, joint pain with or without swelling, low back pain, and rash. According to the World Health Organization, there are 2 billion people living in Aedes-infested areas. In addition, traveling to these areas is popular, making the potential risk of infections transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes very high. Methods. We proposed a mathematical model to estimate the risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in an Aedes-infested area by taking the prevalence of dengue fever into account. The basic reproduction number for chikungunya fever R-0chik can be written as a function of the basic reproduction number of dengue R-0dengue by calculating the ratio R-0chik/R-0dengue. From R-0chik, we estimated the force of infection and the risk of acquiring the disease both for local residents of a dengue-endemic area and for travelers to this area. Results. We calculated that R-0chik is 64.4% that of R-0dengue. The model was applied to a hypothetical situation, namely, estimating the individual risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area, both for local inhabitants (22% in steady state) and for visiting travelers (from 0.31% to 1.23% depending on the time spent in the area). Conclusions. The method proposed based on the output of a dynamical model is innovative and provided an estimation of the risk of infection, both for local inhabitants and for visiting travelers.

Impact of implementing an exclusively dedicated respiratory isolation room in a Brazilian tertiary emergency department

Background Occupational risk due to airborne disease challenges healthcare institutions. Environmental measures are effective but their cost-effectiveness is still debatable and most of the capacity planning is based on occupational rates. Better indices to plan and evaluate capacity are needed. Goal To evaluate the impact of installing an exclusively dedicated respiratory isolation room (EDRIR) in a tertiary emergency department (ED) determined by a time-to-reach-facility method. Methods A group of patients in need of respiratory isolation were first identified-group I (2004; 29 patients; 44.1 +/- 3.4 years) and the occupational rate and time intervals (arrival to diagnosis, diagnosis to respiratory isolation indication and indication to effective isolation) were determined and it was estimated that adding an EDRIR would have a significant impact over the time to isolation. After implementing the EDRIR, a second group of patients was gathered in the same period of the year-group II (2007; 50 patients; 43.4 +/- 1.8 years) and demographic and functional parameters were recorded to evaluate time to isolation. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, gender and inhospital respiratory isolation room availability were obtained. Results Implementing an EDRIR decreased the time from arrival to indication of respiratory isolation (27.5 +/- 9.3 X 3.7 +/- 2.0; p = 0.0180) and from indication to effective respiratory isolation (13.3 +/- 3.0 X 2.94 +/- 1.06; p = 0.003) but not the respiratory isolation duration and total hospital stay. The impact on crude isolation rates was very significant (8.9 X 75.4/100.000 patients; p < 0.001). The HR for effective respiratory isolation was 26.8 (95% CI 7.42 to 96.9) p < 0.001 greater for 2007. Conclusion Implementing an EDRIR in a tertiary ED significantly reduced the time to respiratory isolation.

Modeling the Competition Between Viruses in a Complex Plant-Pathogen System

In this article, we propose a mathematical model that describes the competition between two plant virus strains (MAV and PAV) for both the host plant (oat) and their aphid vectors. We found that although PAV is transmitted by two aphids and MAV by only one, this fact, by itself, does not explain the complete replacement of MAV by PAV in New York State during the period from 1961 through 1976; an interpretation that is in agreement with the theories of A. G. Power. Also, although MAV wins the competition within aphids, we assumed that, in 1961, PAV mutated into a new variant such that this new variant was able to overcome MAV within the plants during a latent period. As shown below, this is sufficient to explain the swap of strains; that is, the dominant MAV was replaced by PAV, also in agreement with Power`s expectations.

Modeling the Dynamics of Viral Evolution Considering Competition Within Individual Hosts and at Population Level: The Effects of Treatment

We consider two viral strains competing against each other within individual hosts (at cellular level) and at population level (for infecting hosts) by studying two cases. In the first case, the strains do not mutate into each other. In this case, we found that each individual in the population can be infected by only one strain and that co-existence in the population is possible only when the strain that has the greater basic intracellular reproduction number, R (0c) , has the smaller population number R (0p) . Treatment against the one strain shifts the population equilibrium toward the other strain in a complicated way (see Appendix B). In the second case, we assume that the strain that has the greater intracellular number R (0c) can mutate into the other strain. In this case, individual hosts can be simultaneously infected by both strains (co-existence within the host). Treatment shifts the prevalence of the two strains within the hosts, depending on the mortality induced by the treatment, which is, in turn, dependent upon the doses given to each individual. The relative proportions of the strains at the population level, under treatment, depend both on the relative proportions within the hosts (which is determined by the dosage of treatment) and on the number of individuals treated per unit time, that is, the rate of treatment. Implications for cases of real diseases are briefly discussed.