Estimativa da probabilidade do evento extremo de precipitação de janeiro de 2000 no Vale do Paraíba, baseada na distribuição generalizada de pareto

Um evento extremo de precipitação ocorreu na primeira semana do ano 2000, de 1º a 5 de janeiro, no Vale do Paraíba, parte leste do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, causando enorme impacto socioeconômico, com mortes e destruição. Este trabalho estudou este evento em 10 estações meteorológicas selecionadas que foram consideradas como aquelas tendo dados mais homogêneos do Que outras estações na região. O modelo de distribuição generalizada de Pareto (DGP) para valores extremos de precipitação de 5 dias foi desenvolvido, individualmente para cada uma dessas estações. Na modelagem da DGP, foi adotada abordagem não-estacionaria considerando o ciclo anual e tendência de longo prazo como co-variaveis. Uma conclusão desta investigação é que as quantidades de precipitação acumulada durante os 5 dias do evento estudado podem ser classificadas como extremamente raras para a região, com probabilidade de ocorrência menor do que 1% para maioria das estações, e menor do que 0,1% em três estações.

Dynamical models for computer viruses propagation

Nowadays, digital computer systems and networks are the main engineering tools, being used in planning, design, operation, and control of all sizes of building, transportation, machinery, business, and life maintaining devices. Consequently, computer viruses became one of the most important sources of uncertainty, contributing to decrease the reliability of vital activities. A lot of antivirus programs have been developed, but they are limited to detecting and removing infections, based on previous knowledge of the virus code. In spite of having good adaptation capability, these programs work just as vaccines against diseases and are not able to prevent new infections based on the network state. Here, a trial on modeling computer viruses propagation dynamics relates it to other notable events occurring in the network permitting to establish preventive policies in the network management. Data from three different viruses are collected in the Internet and two different identification techniques, autoregressive and Fourier analyses, are applied showing that it is possible to forecast the dynamics of a new virus propagation by using the data collected from other viruses that formerly infected the network. Copyright (c) 2008 J. R. C. Piqueira and F. B. Cesar. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

A modified epidemiological model for computer viruses

Since the computer viruses pose a serious problem to individual and corporative computer systems, a lot of effort has been dedicated to study how to avoid their deleterious actions, trying to create anti-virus programs acting as vaccines in personal computers or in strategic network nodes. Another way to combat viruses propagation is to establish preventive policies based on the whole operation of a system that can be modeled with population models, similar to those that are used in epidemiological studies. Here, a modified version of the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is presented and how its parameters are related to network characteristics is explained. Then, disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are calculated, stability and bifurcation conditions are derived and some numerical simulations are shown. The relations among the model parameters in the several bifurcation conditions allow a network design minimizing viruses risks. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pricing corporate bonds in Brazil: 2000 to 2004

This paper analyzes the factors that influence the issuing price of debentures in Brazil in the period from year 2000 to 2004, applying a factor model, in which exogenous variables explain return and price behavior. The variables in this study include: rating, choice of index, maturity, country risk, basic interest rate, long-term and short-term rate spread, the stock market index, and the foreign exchange rate. Results indicate that the index variable, probability of default and bond`s maturity influence pricing and points out associations of long-term bonds with better rating issues. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dental caries profile in Monte Negro, Amazonian state of Rondônia, Brazil, in 2008

OBJECTIVE: This epidemiological survey assessed the dental caries profile in Monte Negro, a small town in the Amazonian state of Rondônia, Brazil, and its relationship with the northern region, national and global goals for oral health in the years 2000 and 2020. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The groups randomly examined were composed of individuals aged 5, 12, 15 to 19, 35 to 44, 65 to 74 years, living in both rural and urban areas. RESULTS: The means dft (standard deviation) and DMFT (standard deviation) for the groups were, respectively, 3.15 (3.12), 3.41 (2.69), 5.96 (4.19), 16.00 (7.30) and 25.96 (9.82). Caries-free individuals were 34.42%, 14.81% and 8.16% in the preschoolchildren, schoolchildren and adolescent groups, respectively. The Significant Caries Index percentages applied to the two younger groups were 6.65 and 6.70, and they increased to 32.00 in the individuals aged 65 to 74 years. Care Index percentages for adolescents, adults and elderly groups were, respectively, 29.40, 25.00 and 1.41. The dental caries profile in Monte Negro in 2008 shows that, 8 years after the year 2000, no FDI/WHO goal for any age settled in 1982 has been achieved. Dental caries increased with age and the main dental problem of adult and elderly groups was tooth loss. CONCLUSION: Oral health promotion and prevention of oral disease policies are urgent needs. Setting of oral health goals and targets to people living in Monte Negro or Amazonia to be pursuit and achieved in a near future is an important action to do because of the culture, sanitary conditions and socioeconomic aspects of this particular population.

Analysis of the prevalence of and factors associated with urinary incontinence among elderly people in the Municipality of São Paulo, Brazil: SABE Study (Health, Wellbeing and Aging)

To investigate the prevalence of urinary incontinence among elderly people living in São Paulo, Brazil and their associated risk factors. The Pan-American Health Organization and World Health Organization coordinated a multicenter study named Health, Wellbeing and Aging (SABE Study) in elderly people (over 60 years old) living in seven countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. In Brazil, the study was carried out in São Paulo in the year 2000. The total Brazilian sample included 2,143 people. The prevalence of self reported urinary incontinence was 11.8% among men and 26.2% for women. It was verified that among those reporting urinary incontinence, 37% also reported stroke and 34% depression. It was found that the greater the dependence that the elderly people presented, the greater the prevalence of urinary incontinence. The associated factors found were depression (odds ratio = 2.49), female (2.42), advanced age (2.35), important functional limitation (2.01). Urinary incontinence is a highly prevalent symptom among the elderly population of the municipality of São Paulo, especially among women. The adoption of preventive measures can reduce the negative effects of urinary incontinence.

Association Between Urinary Incontinence in Elderly Patients and Caregiver Burden in the City of Sao Paulo/Brazil: Health, Wellbeing, and Ageing Study

Aim: Some elderly patients with incontinence require the care of third parties, known as caregivers. Such care can occur on a daily basis leaving little opportunity for the caregiver to take care of himself/herself. The aims are to assess the association between urinary incontinence in elderly patients and caregiver burden and identify independent factors for caregiver`s burden in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: The Pan-American Health Organization and World Health Organization coordinated a multicenter study named Health, Wellbeing and Aging (SABE Study) in elderly people living in seven countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. In Brazil, the study population carried out in Sao Paulo in the year 2000 and reassessed in 2006 (COHORT A). Urinary incontinence was assessed by ICIQ-SF and caregiver burden by means of Zarit Burden Scale. Results: A total of 327 patients with caregivers were included in the study. The general prevalence of urinary incontinence was 25.8%, higher among the women. There was a significant positive association between caregiver burden and incontinent patients, demonstrating that urinary incontinence in elderly patients produced greater caregiver burden. In the present study, the variables with significant correlations were assessed using the multivariate logistic regression model. Category 2 of the ICIQ-SF (incontinent patients) increased the chances of caregiver burden 1.96-fold in comparison to Category 1 (continent patients). Likewise, the category of impaired cognition increased the chances of caregiver burden 2.34-fold. Conclusions: Urinary incontinence and cognitive impairment in elderly patients were associated to an increase in caregiver burden. Neurourol. Urodynam. 30:1281-1285, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Ecology of Rickettsia in South America

Until the year 2000, only three Rickettsia species were known in South America: (i) Rickettsia rickettsii, transmitted by the ticks Amblyomma cajennense, and Amblyomma aureolatum, reported in Colombia, Argentina, and Brazil, where it is the etiological agent of Rocky Mountain spotted fever; (ii) Rickettsia prowazekii, transmitted by body lice and causing epidemic typhus in highland areas, mainly in Peru; (iii) Rickettsia typhi, transmitted by fleas and causing endemic typhus in many countries. During this new century, at least seven other rickettsiae were reported in South America: Rickettsia felis infecting fleas and the tick-associated agents Rickettsia parkeri, Rickettsia massiliae, Candidatus ""Rickettsia amblyommii,"" Rickettsia bellii, Rickettsia rhipicephali, and Candidatus ""Rickettsia andeanae. "" Among these other rickettsiae, only R. felis, R. parkeri and R. massiliae are currently recognized as human pathogens. R. rickettsii is a rare agent in nature, infecting : <= 1% individuals in a few tick populations. Contrastingly, R. parkeri, Candidatus ""R. amblyommii, "" R. rhipicephali, and R. bellii are usually found infecting 10 to 100% individuals in different tick populations. Despite rickettsiae being transmitted transovarially through tick generations, low infection rates for R. rickettsii are possibly related to pathogenic effect of R. rickettsii for ticks, as shown for A. aureolatum under laboratory conditions. This scenario implies that R. rickettsii needs amplifier vertebrate hosts for its perpetuation in nature, in order to create new lines of infected ticks (horizontal transmission). In Brazil, capybaras and opossums are the most probable amplifier hosts for R. rickettsii, among A. cajennense ticks, and small rodents for A. aureolatum.

3-D volume rendering maxillofacial analysis of angular measurements by multislice CT

Objective. This study was designed to determine the precision and accuracy of angular measurements using three-dimensional computed tomography (3D-CT) volume rendering by computer systems. Study design. The study population consisted of 28 dried skulls that were scanned with a 64-row multislice CT, and 3D-CT images were generated. Angular measurements, (n = 6) based upon conventional craniometric anatomical landmarks (n = 9), were identified independently in 3D-CT images by 2 radiologists, twice each, and were then performed by 3D-CT imaging. Subsequently, physical measurements were made by a third examiner using a Beyond Crysta-C9168 series 900 device. Results. The results demonstrated no statistically significant difference between interexaminer and intraexaminer analysis. The mean difference between the physical and 3-D-based angular measurements was -1.18% and -0.89%, respectively, for both examiners, demonstrating high accuracy. Conclusion. Maxillofacial analysis of angular measurements using 3D-CT volume rendering by 64-row multislice CT is established and can be used for orthodontic and dentofacial orthopedic applications.

Ozone formation potentials of volatile organic compounds and ozone sensitivity to their emission in the megacity of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the present study, a three-dimensional Eulerian photochemical model was employed to estimate the impact that organic compounds have on tropospheric ozone formation in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo (MASP). In the year 2000, base case simulations were conducted in two periods: August 22-24 and March 13-15. Based on the pollutant concentrations calculated by the model, the correlation coefficient relative to observations for ozone ranged from 0.91 to 0.93 in both periods. In the simulations employed to evaluate the ozone potential of individual VOCs, as well as the sensitivity of ozone to the VOC/NO(x) emission ratio, the variation in anthropogenic emissions was estimated at 15% (according to tests performed previously variations of 15% were stable). Although there were significant differences between the two periods, ozone concentrations were found to be much more sensitive to VOCs than to NO(x) in both periods and throughout the study domain. In addition, considering their individual rates of emission from vehicles, the species/classes that were most important for ozone formation were as follows: aromatics with a kOH>2x 10(4) ppm(-1) min(-1); olefins with a kOH 7 x 10(4) ppm(-1) min(-1); olefins with a kOH 7 x 10(4) ppm(-1) min(-1); ethene; and formaldehyde, which are the principal species related to the production, transport, storage and combustion of fossil fuels.

A novel approach for distributed application scheduling based on prediction of communication events

The evolution of commodity computing lead to the possibility of efficient usage of interconnected machines to solve computationally-intensive tasks, which were previously solvable only by using expensive supercomputers. This, however, required new methods for process scheduling and distribution, considering the network latency, communication cost, heterogeneous environments and distributed computing constraints. An efficient distribution of processes over such environments requires an adequate scheduling strategy, as the cost of inefficient process allocation is unacceptably high. Therefore, a knowledge and prediction of application behavior is essential to perform effective scheduling. In this paper, we overview the evolution of scheduling approaches, focusing on distributed environments. We also evaluate the current approaches for process behavior extraction and prediction, aiming at selecting an adequate technique for online prediction of application execution. Based on this evaluation, we propose a novel model for application behavior prediction, considering chaotic properties of such behavior and the automatic detection of critical execution points. The proposed model is applied and evaluated for process scheduling in cluster and grid computing environments. The obtained results demonstrate that prediction of the process behavior is essential for efficient scheduling in large-scale and heterogeneous distributed environments, outperforming conventional scheduling policies by a factor of 10, and even more in some cases. Furthermore, the proposed approach proves to be efficient for online predictions due to its low computational cost and good precision. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermal analysis and structural investigation of different dental composite resins

The structural and thermal properties of three different dental composite resins, Filtek (TM) Supreme XT, Filtek (TM) Z-250 and TPHA (R)(3) were investigated in this study. The internal structures of uncured and cured resins with blue light-emitting diodes (LEDs) were examined by Micro-Raman spectroscopy. Thermal analysis techniques as DSC, TG and DTG methods were used to investigate the temperature characteristics, as glass transition (T (g) ), degradation, and the thermal stability of the resins. The results showed that the TPHA (R)(3) and Filtek (TM) Supreme XT presented very similar T (g) values, 48 and 50A degrees C, respectively, while the Filtek (TM) Z-250 composite resin presented a higher one, 58A degrees C. AFM microscope was utilized in order to analyze the sample morphologies, which possess different fillers. The composed resin Filtek (TM) Z-250 has a well interconnected more homogeneous morphology, suggesting a better degree of conversion correlated to the glass phase transition temperature. The modes of vibration of interest in the resin were investigated using Raman spectroscopy. It was possible to observe the bands representative for the C=C (1630 cm(-1)) and C=O(1700 cm(-1)) vibrations were studied with respect to their compositions and polymerization. It was observed that the Filtek (TM) Z -250 resin presents the best result related to the thermal properties and polymerization after light curing among the other resins.

Effect of sugarcane harvesting systems on soil carbon stocks in Brazil: an examination of existing data

Agricultural management practices that promote net carbon (C) accumulation in the soil have been considered as an important potential mitigation option to combat global warming. The change in the sugarcane harvesting system, to one which incorporates C into the soil from crop residues, is the focus of this work. The main objective was to assess and discuss the changes in soil organic C stocks caused by the conversion of burnt to unburnt sugarcane harvesting systems in Brazil, when considering the main soils and climates associated with this crop. For this purpose, a dataset was obtained from a literature review of soils under sugarcane in Brazil. Although not necessarily from experimental studies, only paired comparisons were examined, and for each site the dominant soil type, topography and climate were similar. The results show a mean annual C accumulation rate of 1.5 Mg ha-1 year-1 for the surface to 30-cm depth (0.73 and 2.04 Mg ha-1 year-1 for sandy and clay soils, respectively) caused by the conversion from a burnt to an unburnt sugarcane harvesting system. The findings suggest that soil should be included in future studies related to life cycle assessment and C footprint of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol.

Supporting content-based image retrieval and computer-aided diagnosis systems with association rule-based techniques

In this work, we take advantage of association rule mining to support two types of medical systems: the Content-based Image Retrieval (CBIR) systems and the Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) systems. For content-based retrieval, association rules are employed to reduce the dimensionality of the feature vectors that represent the images and to improve the precision of the similarity queries. We refer to the association rule-based method to improve CBIR systems proposed here as Feature selection through Association Rules (FAR). To improve CAD systems, we propose the Image Diagnosis Enhancement through Association rules (IDEA) method. Association rules are employed to suggest a second opinion to the radiologist or a preliminary diagnosis of a new image. A second opinion automatically obtained can either accelerate the process of diagnosing or to strengthen a hypothesis, increasing the probability of a prescribed treatment be successful. Two new algorithms are proposed to support the IDEA method: to pre-process low-level features and to propose a preliminary diagnosis based on association rules. We performed several experiments to validate the proposed methods. The results indicate that association rules can be successfully applied to improve CBIR and CAD systems, empowering the arsenal of techniques to support medical image analysis in medical systems. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.