Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

SIMULATIONS OF WINDS OF WEAK-LINED T TAURI STARS. II. THE EFFECTS OF A TILTED MAGNETOSPHERE AND PLANETARY INTERACTIONS

Based on our previous work, we investigate here the effects on the wind and magnetospheric structures of weak-lined T Tauri stars due to a misalignment between the axis of rotation of the star and its magnetic dipole moment vector. In such a configuration, the system loses the axisymmetry presented in the aligned case, requiring a fully three-dimensional (3D) approach. We perform 3D numerical magnetohydrodynamic simulations of stellar winds and study the effects caused by different model parameters, namely the misalignment angle theta(t), the stellar period of rotation, the plasma-beta, and the heating index.. Our simulations take into account the interplay between the wind and the stellar magnetic field during the time evolution. The system reaches a periodic behavior with the same rotational period of the star. We show that the magnetic field lines present an oscillatory pattern. Furthermore, we obtain that by increasing theta(t), the wind velocity increases, especially in the case of strong magnetic field and relatively rapid stellar rotation. Our 3D, time-dependent wind models allow us to study the interaction of a magnetized wind with a magnetized extrasolar planet. Such interaction gives rise to reconnection, generating electrons that propagate along the planet`s magnetic field lines and produce electron cyclotron radiation at radio wavelengths. The power released in the interaction depends on the planet`s magnetic field intensity, its orbital radius, and on the stellar wind local characteristics. We find that a close-in Jupiter-like planet orbiting at 0.05 AU presents a radio power that is similar to 5 orders of magnitude larger than the one observed in Jupiter, which suggests that the stellar wind from a young star has the potential to generate strong planetary radio emission that could be detected in the near future with LOFAR. This radio power varies according to the phase of rotation of the star. For three selected simulations, we find a variation of the radio power of a factor 1.3-3.7, depending on theta(t). Moreover, we extend the investigation done in Vidotto et al. and analyze whether winds from misaligned stellar magnetospheres could cause a significant effect on planetary migration. Compared to the aligned case, we show that the timescale tau(w) for an appreciable radial motion of the planet is shorter for larger misalignment angles. While for the aligned case tau(w) similar or equal to 100 Myr, for a stellar magnetosphere tilted by theta(t) = 30 degrees, tau(w) ranges from similar to 40 to 70 Myr for a planet located at a radius of 0.05 AU. Further reduction on tau(w) might occur for even larger misalignment angles and/or different wind parameters.

Wolf-Rayet optically thick winds with Alfven waves

The Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars are hot luminous objects which are suffering an extreme mass loss via a continuous stellar wind. The high values of mass loss rates and high terminal velocities of the WR stellar winds constitute a challenge to the theories of radiation driven winds. Several authors incorporated magnetic forces to the line driven mechanism in order to explain these characteristics of the wind. Observations indicate that the WR stellar winds may reach, at the photosphere, velocities of the order of the terminal values, which means that an important part of the wind acceleration occurs at the optically thick region. The aim of this study is to analyze a model in which the wind in a WR star begins to be accelerated in the optically thick part of the wind. We used as initial conditions stellar parameters taken from the literature and solved the energy, mass and momentum equations. We demonstrate that the acceleration only by radiative forces is prevented by the general behavior of the opacities. Combining radiative forces plus a flux of Alfven waves, we found in the simulations a fast drop in the wind density profile which strongly reduces the extension of the optically thick region and the wind becomes optically thin too close its base. The understanding how the WR wind initiate is still an open issue. (C) 2010 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alfven waves as a driving mechanism in stellar winds

Alfven waves have been invoked as an important mechanism of particle acceleration in stellar winds of cool stars. After their identification in the solar wind they started to be studied in winds of stars located in different regions of the FIR diagram. We discuss here some characteristics of these waves and we present a direct application in the acceleration of late-type stellar winds. (C) 2009 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SIMULATIONS OF WINDS OF WEAK-LINED T TAURI STARS: THE MAGNETIC FIELD GEOMETRY AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE WIND ON GIANT PLANET MIGRATION

By means of numerical simulations, we investigate magnetized stellar winds of pre-main-sequence stars. In particular, we analyze under which circumstances these stars will present elongated magnetic features (e.g., helmet streamers, slingshot prominences, etc). We focus on weak-lined T Tauri stars, as the presence of the tenuous accretion disk is not expected to have strong influence on the structure of the stellar wind. We show that the plasma-beta parameter (the ratio of thermal to magnetic energy densities) is a decisive factor in defining the magnetic configuration of the stellar wind. Using initial parameters within the observed range for these stars, we show that the coronal magnetic field configuration can vary between a dipole-like configuration and a configuration with strong collimated polar lines and closed streamers at the equator (multicomponent configuration for the magnetic field). We show that elongated magnetic features will only be present if the plasma-beta parameter at the coronal base is beta(0) << 1. Using our self-consistent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics model, we estimate for these stellar winds the timescale of planet migration due to drag forces exerted by the stellar wind on a hot-Jupiter. In contrast to the findings of Lovelace et al., who estimated such timescales using the Weber and Davis model, our model suggests that the stellar wind of these multicomponent coronae are not expected to have significant influence on hot-Jupiters migration. Further simulations are necessary to investigate this result under more intense surface magnetic field strengths (similar to 2-3 kG) and higher coronal base densities, as well as in a tilted stellar magnetosphere.

THREE-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF MAGNETIZED WINDS OF SOLAR-LIKE STARS

By means of self-consistent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical simulations, we analyze magnetized solar-like stellar winds and their dependence on the plasma-beta parameter (the ratio between thermal and magnetic energy densities). This is the first study to perform such analysis solving the fully ideal three-dimensional MHD equations. We adopt in our simulations a heating parameter described by gamma, which is responsible for the thermal acceleration of the wind. We analyze winds with polar magnetic field intensities ranging from 1 to 20 G. We show that the wind structure presents characteristics that are similar to the solar coronal wind. The steady-state magnetic field topology for all cases is similar, presenting a configuration of helmet streamer-type, with zones of closed field lines and open field lines coexisting. Higher magnetic field intensities lead to faster and hotter winds. For the maximum magnetic intensity simulated of 20 G and solar coronal base density, the wind velocity reaches values of similar to 1000 km s(-1) at r similar to 20r(0) and a maximum temperature of similar to 6 x 10(6) K at r similar to 6r(0). The increase of the field intensity generates a larger ""dead zone"" in the wind, i.e., the closed loops that inhibit matter to escape from latitudes lower than similar to 45 degrees extend farther away from the star. The Lorentz force leads naturally to a latitude-dependent wind. We show that by increasing the density and maintaining B(0) = 20 G the system recover back to slower and cooler winds. For a fixed gamma, we show that the key parameter in determining the wind velocity profile is the beta-parameter at the coronal base. Therefore, there is a group of magnetized flows that would present the same terminal velocity despite its thermal and magnetic energy densities, as long as the plasma-beta parameter is the same. This degeneracy, however, can be removed if we compare other physical parameters of the wind, such as the mass-loss rate. We analyze the influence of gamma in our results and we show that it is also important in determining the wind structure.

Análise de um ciclone semi-estacionário na costa sul do Brasil associado a bloqueio atmosférico

Na primeira semana de maio de 2008, durante quatro dias, um ciclone em superfície permaneceu semi-estacionário na costa da região sul do Brasil. Este sistema foi responsável por chuvas e ventos fortes no Rio Grande do Sul e Santa Catarina, os quais causaram muitos danos (queda de árvores, enchentes e desabamentos). O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o processo de formação e entender os mecanismos responsáveis pelo lento deslocamento do ciclone, já que a maioria dos ciclones nesta região possui deslocamento mais rápido. A equação de desenvolvimento de Sutcliffe mostrou que a advecção de vorticidade absoluta ciclônica na média troposfera e a advecção de ar quente na camada entre 1000-500 hPa foram mecanismos importantes para a ciclogênese. Neste período, o intenso aquecimento diabático também contribuiu para a ciclogênese, à medida que se contrapôs ao intenso resfriamento adiabático devido aos movimentos verticais ascendentes. A advecção de vorticidade absoluta ciclônica que favoreceu a ciclogênese esteve associada a um Vórtice Ciclônico em Altos Níveis (VCAN), que se formou numa região de anomalia de vorticidade potencial. O VCAN se manteve semi-estacionário e compôs o setor norte de um bloqueio do tipo dipolo. Tal bloqueio intensificou um anticiclone em superfície, situado a sul/leste do ciclone, o que contribuiu para o ciclone se manter semi-estacionário. O movimento atípico e lento do ciclone para sul, e em alguns períodos para sudoeste, esteve associado com advecções de vorticidade absoluta ciclônica na média troposfera e de ar quente no seu setor sul. Somente quando o bloqueio em níveis médios e a anomalia de vorticidade potencial em níveis médios/altos se enfraqueceram, o ciclone em superfície se afastou da costa sul do Brasil.

Propagacão das ondas de rossby nos invernos de máxima freqüência de ocorrência de geadas na pampa úmida

Neste trabalho estudou-se a influência dos padrões de onda extratropicais, que favorecem o desenvolvimento de eventos extremos frios no sudeste Sul-Americano, e em particular na região conhecida como Pampa Úmida. O aquecimento anômalo observado na região do oceano Pacífico tropical ocidental a nordeste da Austrália, durante os invernos de máxima freqüência de ocorrência de Geadas Generalizadas (GG) no centro-leste da Argentina, (região conhecida como Pampa Úmida - PU), atua como disparador de ondas de Rossby, as quais se propagam até o continente, favorecendo assim a ocorrência daqueles eventos. O padrão de propagação obtido nas simulações numéricas com um modelo baroclínico global, mostra o predomínio de um número de onda 3. Adicionalmente, foram analisadas as correlações do vento meridional em altos e baixos níveis observados para os eventos de GG, selecionados dentro dos invernos de máxima freqüência de ocorrência desses eventos. O vento meridional global em 250hPa apresenta regiões com correlação estatisticamente significativa com o vento meridional médio na PU. A configuração obtida no caso do vento meridional global em 250hPa, correlacionado com o vento meridional na PU, pode estar associada ao padrão de propagação das ondas simuladas numericamente a partir da forçante tropical. Igualmente importantes e significativos são os valores de correlação do vento sul nos baixos níveis, em particular para toda região da PU. O padrão de ondas simulado está bem representado pelas significativas correlações entre o vento meridional hemisférico em altos níveis e a temperatura no dia de evento de GG.

Caracterização de eventos extremos do nível do mar em Santos e sua correspondência com as reanálises do modelo do NCEP no sudoeste do Atlântico Sul

Este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar a influência atmosférica em escala sinótica sobre o oceano, para eventos extremos de maré meteorológica na costa sudeste brasileira. Para isso foram utilizados dados de elevação do nível do mar do Porto de Santos-SP, campos de vento e pressão em superfície das reanálises do modelo do NCEP abrangendo o Atlântico Sul, no período de 1951 a 1990. Foi possível identificar a variabilidade sazonal e o padrão de evolução dos sistemas atmosféricos associados aos eventos extremos, de grande relevância para aplicações em prognósticos e alertas a autoridades. O outono e inverno apresentaram a maior ocorrência de extremos positivos (40,2 % e 30,8 % respectivamente), enquanto a primavera e o inverno foram as estações com maior número de extremos negativos (47,2 % e 32,3 % respectivamente). Os resultados mostram que os casos mais importantes de sobre-elevação do nível do mar ocorrem com a evolução e persistência de sistemas de baixa pressão sobre o oceano, com ventos de sudoeste acima de 8 m/s, juntamente com o anticiclone da retaguarda posicionado sobre o continente.

Brazilian offshore wave climate based on NWW3 reanalysis

This paper provides a description of the wave climate off the Brazilian coast based on an eleven-year time series (Jan/1997-Dec/2007) obtained from the NWW3 operational model hindcast reanalysis. Information about wave climate in Brazilian waters is very scarce and mainly based on occasional short-term observations, the present analysis being the first covering such temporal and spatial scales. To define the wave climate, six sectors were defined and analyzed along the Brazilian shelf-break: South (W1), Southeast (W2), Central (W3), East (W4), Northeast (W5) and North (W6). W1, W2 and W3 wave regimes are determined by the South Atlantic High (SAH) and the passage of synoptic cold fronts; W4, W5 and W6 are controlled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and its meridional oscillation. The most energetic waves are from the S, generated by the strong winds associated to the passage of cold fronts, which mainly affect the southern region. Wave power presents a decrease in energy levels from south to north, with its annual variation showing that the winter months are the most energetic in W1 to W4, while in W5 and W6 the most energetic conditions occur during the austral summer. The information presented here provides boundary conditions for studies related to coastal processes, fundamental for a better understanding of the Brazilian coastal zone.

Os conhecimentos tradicional e científico do Saco do Arraial, estuário da Lagoa do Patos (RS)

Ethno-sciences study the logical behind the traditional population knowledge about environmental process. This case study aims at describing the ethno-knowledge of artisanal fishermen on the hydrodynamics of the estuary around Coreia community (Saco do Arraial), located in Dos Patos Lagoon, in southern Brazil, from an ethnooceangraphic perspective. For this purpose, mental maps, open-ended and in-depth semi-structured interviewing and participative research have been used. As well as scientific knowledge, rains and winds were had main hydrodynamic effort of Saco do Arraial, although astronomic influence in located hydrodynamic has been just a perception of traditional knowledge. Soon, these data have shown another important way to perceive the Patos Lagoon.

Observational evidences on the modulation of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes according the ENSO variability

The differences on the phase and wavelength of the quasi-stationary waves over the South America generated by El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) events seem to affect the daily evolution of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes (SALLJ). For the austral summer period of 1977 2004 the SALLJ episodes detected according to Bonner criterion 1 show normal to above-normal frequency in EN years, and in LN years the episodes show normal to below-normal frequency. During EN and LN years the SALLJ episodes were associated with positive rainfall anomalies over the La Plata Basin, but more intense during LN years. During EN years the increase in the SALLJ cases were associated to intensification of the Subtropical Jet (SJ) around 30 degrees S and positive Sea Level Pressure (SLP) anomalies over the western equatorial Atlantic and tropical South America, particularly over central Brazil. This favored the intensification of the northeasterly trade winds over the northern continent and it channeled by the Andes mountain to the La Plata Basin region where negative SLP are found. The SALLJ cases identified during the LN events were weaker and less frequent when compared to those for EN years. In this case the SJ was weaker than in EN years and the negative SLP anomalies over the tropical continent contributed to the inversion of the northeasterly trade winds. Also a southerly flow anomaly was generated by the geostrophic balance due to the anomalous blocking over southeast Pacific and the intense cyclonic transient over the southern tip of South America. As result the warm tropical air brought by the SALLJ encounters the cold extratropical air from the southerly winds over the La Plata basin. This configuration can increase the conditional instability over the La Plata basin and may explain the more intense positive rainfall anomalies in SALLJ cases during LN years than in EN years.

The qWR star HD 45166 - II. Fundamental stellar parameters and evidence of a latitude-dependent wind

Context. The enigmatic object HD 45166 is a qWR star in a binary system with an orbital period of 1.596 day, and presents a rich emission-line spectrum in addition to absorption lines from the companion star (B7 V). As the system inclination is very small (i = 0.77 degrees +/- 0.09 degrees), HD 45166 is an ideal laboratory for wind-structure studies. Aims. The goal of the present paper is to determine the fundamental stellar and wind parameters of the qWR star. Methods. A radiative transfer model for the wind and photosphere of the qWR star was calculated using the non-LTE code CMFGEN. The wind asymmetry was also analyzed using a recently-developed version of CMFGEN to compute the emerging spectrum in two-dimensional geometry. The temporal-variance spectrum (TVS) was calculated to study the line-profile variations. Results. Abundances and stellar and wind parameters of the qWR star were obtained. The qWR star has an effective temperature of T(eff) = 50 000 +/- 2000 K, a luminosity of log(L/L(circle dot)) = 3.75 +/- 0.08, and a corresponding photospheric radius of R(phot) = 1.00 R(circle dot). The star is helium-rich (N(H)/N(He) = 2.0), while the CNO abundances are anomalous when compared either to solar values, to planetary nebulae, or to WR stars. The mass-loss rate is. M = 2.2 x 10(-7) M(circle dot) yr(-1), and the wind terminal velocity is v(infinity) = 425 km s(-1). The comparison between the observed line profiles and models computed under different latitude-dependent wind densities strongly suggests the presence of an oblate wind density enhancement, with a density contrast of at least 8: 1 from equator to pole. If a high velocity polar wind is present (similar to 1200 km s(-1)), the minimum density contrast is reduced to 4:1. Conclusions. The wind parameters determined are unusual when compared to O-type stars or to typical WR stars. While for WR stars v(infinity)/v(esc) > 1.5, in the case of HD 45166 it is much smaller (v(infinity)/v(esc) = 0.32). In addition, the efficiency of momentum transfer is eta = 0.74, which is at least 4 times smaller than in a typical WR. We find evidence for the presence of a wind compression zone, since the equatorial wind density is significantly higher than the polar wind. The TVS supports the presence of such a latitude-dependent wind and a variable absorption/scattering gas near the equator.

Fast ray-tracing algorithm for circumstellar structures (FRACS) II. Disc parameters of the B[e] supergiant CPD-57 degrees 2874 from VLTI/MIDI data

Context. B[e] supergiants are luminous, massive post-main sequence stars exhibiting non-spherical winds, forbidden lines, and hot dust in a disc-like structure. The physical properties of their rich and complex circumstellar environment (CSE) are not well understood, partly because these CSE cannot be easily resolved at the large distances found for B[e] supergiants (typically greater than or similar to 1 kpc). Aims. From mid-IR spectro-interferometric observations obtained with VLTI/MIDI we seek to resolve and study the CSE of the Galactic B[e] supergiant CPD-57 degrees 2874. Methods. For a physical interpretation of the observables (visibilities and spectrum) we use our ray-tracing radiative transfer code (FRACS), which is optimised for thermal spectro-interferometric observations. Results. Thanks to the short computing time required by FRACS (<10 s per monochromatic model), best-fit parameters and uncertainties for several physical quantities of CPD-57 degrees 2874 were obtained, such as inner dust radius, relative flux contribution of the central source and of the dusty CSE, dust temperature profile, and disc inclination. Conclusions. The analysis of VLTI/MIDI data with FRACS allowed one of the first direct determinations of physical parameters of the dusty CSE of a B[e] supergiant based on interferometric data and using a full model-fitting approach. In a larger context, the study of B[e] supergiants is important for a deeper understanding of the complex structure and evolution of hot, massive stars.

The chemical evolution of IC 10

Context. Dwarf irregular galaxies are relatively simple unevolved objects where it is easy to test models of galactic chemical evolution. Aims. We attempt to determine the star formation and gas accretion history of IC 10, a local dwarf irregular for which abundance, gas, and mass determinations are available. Methods. We apply detailed chemical evolution models to predict the evolution of several chemical elements (He, O, N, S) and compared our predictions with the observational data. We consider additional constraints such as the present-time gas fraction, the star formation rate (SFR), and the total estimated mass of IC 10. We assume a dark matter halo for this galaxy and study the development of a galactic wind. We consider different star formation regimes: bursting and continuous. We explore different wind situations: i) normal wind, where all the gas is lost at the same rate and ii) metal-enhanced wind, where metals produced by supernovae are preferentially lost. We study a case without wind. We vary the star formation efficiency (SFE), the wind efficiency, and the time scale of the gas infall, which are the most important parameters in our models. Results. We find that only models with metal-enhanced galactic winds can reproduce the properties of IC 10. The star formation must have proceeded in bursts rather than continuously and the bursts must have been less numerous than similar to 10 over the whole galactic lifetime. Finally, IC 10 must have formed by a slow process of gas accretion with a timescale of the order of 8 Gyr.