18 resultados para Wind forecasting

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)


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In the last 15 years, the use of doubly fed induction machines in modern variable-speed wind turbines has increased rapidly. This development has been driven by the cost reduction as well as the low-loss generation of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBT). According to new grid code requirements, wind turbines must remain connected to the grid during grid disturbances. Moreover, they must also contribute to voltage support during and after grid faults. The crowbar system is essential to avoid the disconnection of the doubly fed induction wind generators from the network during faults. The insertion of the crowbar in the rotor circuits for a short period of time enables a more efficient terminal voltage control. As a general rule, the activation and the deactivation of the crowbar system is based only on the DC-link voltage level of the back-to-back converters. In this context, the authors discuss the critical rotor speed to analyze the instability of doubly fed induction generators during grid faults.

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Context. The enigmatic object HD 45166 is a qWR star in a binary system with an orbital period of 1.596 day, and presents a rich emission-line spectrum in addition to absorption lines from the companion star (B7 V). As the system inclination is very small (i = 0.77 degrees +/- 0.09 degrees), HD 45166 is an ideal laboratory for wind-structure studies. Aims. The goal of the present paper is to determine the fundamental stellar and wind parameters of the qWR star. Methods. A radiative transfer model for the wind and photosphere of the qWR star was calculated using the non-LTE code CMFGEN. The wind asymmetry was also analyzed using a recently-developed version of CMFGEN to compute the emerging spectrum in two-dimensional geometry. The temporal-variance spectrum (TVS) was calculated to study the line-profile variations. Results. Abundances and stellar and wind parameters of the qWR star were obtained. The qWR star has an effective temperature of T(eff) = 50 000 +/- 2000 K, a luminosity of log(L/L(circle dot)) = 3.75 +/- 0.08, and a corresponding photospheric radius of R(phot) = 1.00 R(circle dot). The star is helium-rich (N(H)/N(He) = 2.0), while the CNO abundances are anomalous when compared either to solar values, to planetary nebulae, or to WR stars. The mass-loss rate is. M = 2.2 x 10(-7) M(circle dot) yr(-1), and the wind terminal velocity is v(infinity) = 425 km s(-1). The comparison between the observed line profiles and models computed under different latitude-dependent wind densities strongly suggests the presence of an oblate wind density enhancement, with a density contrast of at least 8: 1 from equator to pole. If a high velocity polar wind is present (similar to 1200 km s(-1)), the minimum density contrast is reduced to 4:1. Conclusions. The wind parameters determined are unusual when compared to O-type stars or to typical WR stars. While for WR stars v(infinity)/v(esc) > 1.5, in the case of HD 45166 it is much smaller (v(infinity)/v(esc) = 0.32). In addition, the efficiency of momentum transfer is eta = 0.74, which is at least 4 times smaller than in a typical WR. We find evidence for the presence of a wind compression zone, since the equatorial wind density is significantly higher than the polar wind. The TVS supports the presence of such a latitude-dependent wind and a variable absorption/scattering gas near the equator.

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We report near-infrared spectroscopic observations of the Eta Carinae massive binary system during 2008-2009 using the CRIRES spectrograph mounted on the 8m UT 1 Very Large Telescope (VLT Antu). We detect a strong, broad absorption wing in He I lambda 10833 extending up to -1900 km s(-1) across the 2009.0 spectroscopic event. Analysis of archival Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph ultraviolet and optical data identifies a similar high-velocity absorption (up to -2100 km s(-1)) in the ultraviolet resonance lines of Si IV lambda lambda 1394, 1403 across the 2003.5 event. Ultraviolet resonance lines from low-ionization species, such as Si II lambda lambda 1527, 1533 and CII lambda lambda 1334, 1335, show absorption only up to -1200 km s(-1), indicating that the absorption with velocities -1200 to -2100 km s(-1) originates in a region markedly more rapidly moving and more ionized than the nominal wind of the primary star. Seeing-limited observations obtained at the 1.6m OPD/LNA telescope during the last four spectroscopic cycles of Eta Carinae (1989-2009) also show high-velocity absorption in He I lambda 10833 during periastron. Based on the large OPD/LNA dataset, we determine that material with velocities more negative than -900 km s(-1) is present in the phase range 0.976 <= phi <= 1.023 of the spectroscopic cycle, but absent in spectra taken at phi <= 0.947 and phi >= 1.049. Therefore, we constrain the duration of the high-velocity absorption to be 95 to 206 days (or 0.047 to 0.102 in phase). We propose that the high-velocity absorption component originates in shocked gas in the wind-wind collision zone, at distances of 15 to 45 AU in the line-of-sight to the primary star. With the aid of three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of the wind-wind collision zone, we find that the dense high-velocity gas is along the line-of-sight to the primary star only if the binary system is oriented in the sky such that the companion is behind the primary star during periastron, corresponding to a longitude of periastron of omega similar to 240 degrees-270 degrees. We study a possible tilt of the orbital plane relative to the Homunculus equatorial plane and conclude that our data are broadly consistent with orbital inclinations in the range i = 40 degrees-60 degrees.

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This paper presents a robust voltage control scheme for fixed-speed wind generators using a static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) controller. To enable a linear and robust control framework with structured uncertainty, the overall system is represented by a linear part plus a nonlinear part that covers an operating range of interest required to ensure stability during severe low voltages. The proposed methodology is flexible and readily applicable to larger wind farms of different configurations. The performance of the control strategy is demonstrated on a two area test system. Large disturbance simulations demonstrate that the proposed controller enhances voltage stability as well as transient stability of induction generators during low voltage ride through (LVRT) transients and thus enhances the LVRT capability. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A thermodynamic approach to predict bulk glass-forming compositions in binary metallic systems was recently proposed. In this approach. the parameter gamma* = Delta H-amor/(Delta H-inter - Delta H-amor) indicates the glass-forming ability (GFA) from the standpoint of the driving force to form different competing phases, and Delta H-amor and Delta H-inter are the enthalpies for-lass and intermetallic formation, respectively. Good glass-forming compositions should have a large negative enthalpy for glass formation and a very small difference for intermetallic formation, thus making the glassy phase easily reachable even under low cooling rates. The gamma* parameter showed a good correlation with GFA experimental data in the Ni-Nb binary system. In this work, a simple extension of the gamma* parameter is applied in the ternary Al-Ni-Y system. The calculated gamma* isocontours in the ternary diagram are compared with experimental results of glass formation in that system. Despite sonic misfitting, the best glass formers are found quite close to the highest gamma* values, leading to the conclusion that this thermodynamic approach can lie extended to ternary systems, serving as a useful tool for the development of new glass-forming compositions. Finally the thermodynamic approach is compared with the topological instability criteria used to predict the thermal behavior of glassy Al alloys. (C) 2007 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

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In this paper, a novel adaptive strategy to obtain technically justified fault-ride-through requirements for wind turbines (WTs) is proposed. The main objective is to promote an effective integration of wind turbines into power systems with still low penetration levels of wind power based on technical and economical considerations. The level of requirement imposed by the strategy is increased stepwise over time, depending on system characteristics and on wind power penetration level. The idea behind is to introduce stringent requirements only when they are technically needed for a reliable and secure power system operation. Voltage stability support and fault-ride-through requirements are considered in the strategy. Simulations are based on the Chilean transmission network, a midsize isolated power system with still low penetration levels of wind power. Simulations include fixed speed induction generators and doubly fed induction generators. The effects on power system stability of the wind power injections, integrated into the network by adopting the adaptive strategy, are compared with the effects that have the same installed capacity of wind power but only considering WTs able to fulfill stringent requirements (fault-ride-through capability and support voltage stability). Based on simulations and international experience, technically justified requirements for the Chilean case are proposed.

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In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

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This paper reports on design of digital control for wind turbines and its relation to the quality of power fed into the Brazilian grid on connecting to it a 192 MW wind farm equipped with doubly fed induction generators. PWM converters are deployed as vector controlled regulated current voltage sources for their rotors, for independent control of both active and reactive power of those generators. Both speed control and active power control strategies are analyzed, in the search for maximum efficiency of conversion of wind kinetic energy into electric power and enhanced quality of delivered power. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This paper proposes ail alternative configuration to conventional reverse osmosis (RO) desalination systems by incorporating the use of gravitational potential energy. The proposal suggests a model that can be viewed as the energy station of a RO desalination plant. Conventionally, RO plants use a high-pressure pump, powered by electricity or fossil fuel. The function of the pump is to send a flux of saline water to a group of semi-permeable membrane modules, capable of ""filtering"" the dissolved salts. In this proposed model, we intend to achieve a flux at the inlet of the membrane modules with a pressure high enough for the desalination process, without using, either electricity or fossil fuels. To do this we divised a hybrid system that uses both gravitational potential energy and wind energy. The technical viability of the alternative was theoretically proven by deductions based on physics and mathematics.

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There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

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This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.

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Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, the fungus that causes ramulosis disease of cotton, is widespread in Brazil and can cause severe yield loss. Because weather conditions greatly affect disease development, the objective of this work was to develop weather-based models to assess disease favorability. Latent period, incidence, and severity of ramulosis symptoms were evaluated in controlled environment experiments using factorial combinations of temperature (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 h after inoculation). Severity was modeled as an exponential function of leaf wetness duration and temperature. At the optimum temperature of disease development, 27 degrees C, average latent period was 10 days. Maximum ramulosis severity occurred from 20 to 30 degrees C, with sharp decreases at lower and higher temperatures. Ramulosis severity increased as wetness periods were increased from 4 to 32 h. In field experiments at Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, cotton plots were inoculated (10(5) conidia ml(-1)) and ramulosis severity was evaluated weekly. The model obtained from the controlled environment study was used to generate a disease favorability index for comparison with disease progress rate in the field. Hourly measurements of solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness duration, rainfall, and wind speed were also evaluated as possible explanatory variables. Both the disease favorability model and a model based on rainfall explained ramulosis growth rate well, with R(2) of 0.89 and 0.91, respectively. They are proposed as models of ramulosis development rate on cotton in Brazil, and weather-disease relationships revealed by this work can form the basis of a warning system for ramulosis development.

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Recent investigations on the central stars of planetary nebulae (CSPN) indicate that the masses based on model atmospheres can be much larger than the masses derived from theoretical mass-luminosity relations. Also, the dispersion in the relation between the modified wind momentum and the luminosity depends on the mass spread of the CSPN, and is larger than observed in massive hot stars. Since the wind characteristics probably depend on the metallicity, we analyze the effects on the modified wind momentum by considering the dispersion in this quantity caused by the stellar metallicity. Our CSPN masses are based on a relation between the core mass and the nebular abundances. We conclude that these masses agree with the known mass distribution both for CSPN and white dwarfs, and that the spread in the modified wind momentum can be explained by the observed metallicity variations.

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Both continuum and emission line flickering are phenomena directly associated with the mass-accretion process. In this work we simulated accretion-disk Doppler maps, including the effects of winds and flickering flares. Synthetic flickering Doppler maps were calculated and the effect of the flickering parameters on the maps was explored. Jets and winds occur in many astrophysical objects where accretion disks are present. Jets are generally absent among the cataclysmic variables (CVs), but there is evidence of mass loss by wind in many objects. CVs are ideal objects to study accretion disks, and consequently to study the wind associated with these disks. We also present simulations of accretion disks, including the presence of a wind with orbital phase resolution. Synthetic Ha line profiles in the optical region were obtained and their corresponding Doppler maps were calculated. The effect of the wind simulation parameters on the wind line profiles was also explored. From this study we verified that optically thick lines and/or emission by diffuse material into the primary Roche lobe are necessary to generate single peaked line profiles, often seen in CVs. The future accounting of these effects is suggested for interpreting Doppler tomography reconstructions.