Using indicators of deforestation and land-use dynamics to support conservation strategies: A case study of central Rondonia, Brazil

In Rondonia State, Brazil, settlement processes have cleared 68,000 km 2 of tropical forests since the 1970s. The intensity of deforestation has differed by region depending on driving factors like roads and economic activities. Different histories of land-use activities and rates of change have resulted in mosaics of forest patches embedded in an agricultural matrix. Yet, most assessments of deforestation and its effects on vegetation, soil and water typically focus on landscape patterns of current conditions, yet historical deforestation dynamics can influence current conditions strongly. Here, we develop and describe the use of four land-use dynamic indicators to capture historical land-use changes of catchments and to measure the rate of deforestation (annual deforestation rate), forest regeneration level (secondary forest mean proportion), time since disturbance (mean time since deforestation) and deforestation profile (deforestation profile curvature). We used the proposed indices to analyze a watershed located in central Rondonia. Landsat TM and ETM+ images were used to produce historical land-use maps of the last 18 years, each even year from 1984 to 2002 for 20 catchments. We found that the land-use dynamics indicators are able to distinguish catchments with different land-use change profiles. Four categories of historical land-use were identified: old and dominant pasture cover on small properties, recent deforestation and dominance of secondary growth, old extensive pastures and large forest remnants and, recent deforestation, pasture and large forest remnants. Knowing historical deforestation processes is important to develop appropriate conservation strategies and define priorities and actions for conserving forests currently under deforestation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conservation in tropical landscape mosaics: the case of the cacao landscape of southern Bahia, Brazil

A recent debate has contrasted two conservation strategies in agricultural landscapes; either ""land sparing`` farm development combining intensive production practices with forest set-asides, or ""wildlife-friendly`` farming with greater on-farm habitat value but lower yields. We argue that in established mosaic landscapes including old cacao production regions where natural forest has already been reduced to relatively small fragments, a combination of both strategies is needed to conserve biodiversity. After reviewing the evidence for the insufficiency of either strategy alone if applied to such landscapes, the paper focuses on the cacao production landscape of southern Bahia, Brazil, once the world`s second largest cacao producer. Here, small remaining areas of Atlantic Forest are embedded in a matrix dominated by traditional cacao agroforests, resulting in a landscape mosaic that has proven favorable to the conservation of the region`s high biodiversity. We show that current land use dynamics and public policies pose threats but also offer opportunities to conservation and describe a three- pronged landscape conservation strategy, consisting of (i) expansion of the protected areas system, (ii) promotion of productive yet biodiversity-friendly cacao farming practices, and (iii) assistance to land users to implement legally mandated on-farm reserves and voluntary private reserves. We discuss recent experiences concerning the implementation of this strategy, discuss likely future scenarios, and reflect on the applicability of the Bahian experience to biodiversity rich cacao production regions elsewhere in the tropics.

DEVELOPMENT OF STATIC MIXERS FOR MISCIBLE FLUIDS IN LAMINAR FLOW WITH THE USE OF COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS (CFD)

Static mixers with improved performance were developed from CFD simulations in a stepwise approach. The relevant geometric features of simple mixer designs and the corresponding mixing mechanisms-laminar shear, elongational flow, and distributive mixing-were identified first. This information was used to formulate guidelines for the development of new geometries. The solid elements of the static mixer should: (a) provide restrictions to the flow; (b) deflect the flow; (c) be sequentially rotated around the flow direction to provide symmetry; (d) extend from the center of the pipe to the vicinity of the walls to avoid short-circuiting; and (e) distribute and remix the flow. Based on these guidelines, two improved mixer designs were developed: the DS A-I mixer has a good mixing efficiency and an acceptable pressure drop; the Fins 35 degrees mixer is more efficient and compact, but requires a larger pressure drop. Their performance indicates that their use is possible on industrial applications.

Effects of roads, topography, and land use on forest cover dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Roads and topography can determine patterns of land use and distribution of forest cover, particularly in tropical regions. We evaluated how road density, land use, and topography affected forest fragmentation, deforestation and forest regrowth in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest region near the city of Sao Paulo. We mapped roads and land use/land cover for three years (1962, 1981 and 2000) from historical aerial photographs, and summarized the distribution of roads, land use/land cover and topography within a grid of 94 non-overlapping 100 ha squares. We used generalized least squares regression models for data analysis. Our models showed that forest fragmentation and deforestation depended on topography, land use and road density, whereas forest regrowth depended primarily on land use. However, the relationships between these variables and forest dynamics changed in the two studied periods; land use and slope were the strongest predictors from 1962 to 1981, and past (1962) road density and land use were the strongest predictors for the following period (1981-2000). Roads had the strongest relationship with deforestation and forest fragmentation when the expansions of agriculture and buildings were limited to already deforested areas, and when there was a rapid expansion of development, under influence of Sao Paulo city. Furthermore, the past(1962)road network was more important than the recent road network (1981) when explaining forest dynamics between 1981 and 2000, suggesting a long-term effect of roads. Roads are permanent scars on the landscape and facilitate deforestation and forest fragmentation due to increased accessibility and land valorization, which control land-use and land-cover dynamics. Topography directly affected deforestation, agriculture and road expansion, mainly between 1962 and 1981. Forest are thus in peril where there are more roads, and long-term conservation strategies should consider ways to mitigate roads as permanent landscape features and drivers facilitators of deforestation and forest fragmentation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics: seasonal variation of phytoplankton functional groups in brazilian reservoirs (Billings and Guarapiranga, São Paulo)

Phytoplankton may function as a "sensor" of changes in aquatic environment and responds rapidly to such changes. In freshwaters, coexistence of species that have similar ecological requirements and show the same environmental requirements frequently occurs; such species groups are named functional groups. The use of phytoplankton functional groups to evaluate these changes has proven to be very useful and effective. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of functional groups of phytoplankton in two reservoirs (Billings and Guarapiranga) that supply water to millions of people in São Paulo city Metropolitan Area, southeastern Brazil. Surface water samples were collected monthly and physical, chemical and biological (quantitative and qualitative analyses of the phytoplankton) were performed. The highest biovolume (mm³.L-1) of the descriptor species and functional groups were represented respectively by Anabaena circinalis Rabenh. (H1), Microcystis aeruginosa (Kützing) Kützing (L M/M) and Mougeotia sp. (T) in the Guarapiranga reservoir and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Wolosz.) Seen. and Subba Raju (S N), Microcystis aeruginosa and M. panniformis Komárek et al. (L M/M), Planktothrix agardhii (Gom.) Anagn. and Komárek and P. cf. clathrata (Skuja) Anagn. and Komárek (S1) in the Billings reservoir. The environmental factors that most influenced the phytoplankton dynamics were water temperature, euphotic zone, turbidity, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, nitrate and total phosphorous.

Unconstrained Finite Element for Geometrical Nonlinear Dynamics of Shells

This paper presents a positional FEM formulation to deal with geometrical nonlinear dynamics of shells. The main objective is to develop a new FEM methodology based on the minimum potential energy theorem written regarding nodal positions and generalized unconstrained vectors not displacements and rotations. These characteristics are the novelty of the present work and avoid the use of large rotation approximations. A nondimensional auxiliary coordinate system is created, and the change of configuration function is written following two independent mappings from which the strain energy function is derived. This methodology is called positional and, as far as the authors' knowledge goes, is a new procedure to approximated geometrical nonlinear structures. In this paper a proof for the linear and angular momentum conservation property of the Newmark beta algorithm is provided for total Lagrangian description. The proposed shell element is locking free for elastic stress-strain relations due to the presence of linear strain variation along the shell thickness. The curved, high-order element together with an implicit procedure to solve nonlinear equations guarantees precision in calculations. The momentum conserving, the locking free behavior, and the frame invariance of the adopted mapping are numerically confirmed by examples. Copyright (C) 2009 H. B. Coda and R. R. Paccola.

The structure and dynamics of Abell 1942

Aims. We present a dynamical analysis of the galaxy cluster Abell 1942 based on a set of 128 velocities obtained at the European Southern Observatory. Methods. Data on individual galaxies are presented and the accuracy of the determined velocities as some properties of the cluster are discussed. We have also made use of publicly available Chandra X-ray data. Results. We obtained an improved mean redshift value z = 0.22513 +/- 0.0008 and velocity dispersion sigma = 908(139)(+147) km s(-1). Our analysis indicates that inside a radius of similar to 1.5 h(70)(-1) Mpc (similar to 7 arcmin) the cluster is well relaxed, without any remarkable features and the X-ray emission traces the galaxy distribution fairly well. Two possible optical substructures are seen at similar to 5 arcmin from the centre in the northwest and the southwest directions, but are not confirmed by the velocity field. These clumps are, however, kinematically bound to the main structure of Abell 1942. X-ray spectroscopic analysis of Chandra data resulted in a temperature kT = 5.5+/-0.5 keV and metal abundance Z = 0.33 +/- 0.15 Z(circle dot). The velocity dispersion corresponding to this temperature using the T(X-sigma) scaling relation is in good agreement with the measured galaxy velocities. Our photometric redshift analysis suggests that the weak lensing signal observed to the south of the cluster and previously attributed to a ""dark clump"" is produced by background sources, possibly distributed as a filamentary structure.

Atomistic molecular dynamics study of interface formation: Al on poly(p-phenylene vinylene)

We model interface formation by metal deposition on the conjugated polymer poly-para-phenylene vinylene, studying direct aluminum and layered aluminum-calcium structures Al/PPV and Al/Ca/PPV. To do that we use classical molecular dynamics simulations, checked by ab initio density-functional theory calculations, for selected relevant configurations. We find that Al not only migrates easily into the film, with a strong charge transfer to the neighboring chains, but also promotes rearrangement of the polymer in the interfacial region to the hexagonal structure. On the other hand, our results indicate that a thin Ca layer is sufficient to protect the film and maintain a well-defined metal/polymer interface, and that also a thin Al capping layer may protect the whole from environmental degradation.

Conversion to soy on the Amazonian agricultural frontier increases streamflow without affecting stormflow dynamics

Large-scale soy agriculture in the southern Brazilian Amazon now rivals deforestation for pasture as the region`s predominant form of land use change. Such landscape-level change can have substantial consequences for local and regional hydrology, but these effects remain relatively unstudied in this ecologically and economically important region. We examined how the conversion to soy agriculture influences water balances and stormflows using stream discharge (water yields) and the timing of discharge (stream hydrographs) in small (2.5-13.5 km2) forested and soy headwater watersheds in the Upper Xingu Watershed in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. We monitored water yield for 1 year in three forested and four soy watersheds. Mean daily water yields were approximately four times higher in soy than forested watersheds, and soy watersheds showed greater seasonal variability in discharge. The contribution of stormflows to annual streamflow in all streams was low (< 13% of annual streamflow), and the contribution of stormflow to streamflow did not differ between land uses. If the increases in water yield observed in this study are typical, landscape-scale conversion to soy substantially alters water-balance, potentially altering the regional hydrology over large areas of the southern Amazon.

Simulation of Soil Carbon Dynamics under Sugarcane with the CENTURY Model

Currently there is a trend for the expansion of the area cropped with sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), driven by an increase in the world demand for biofuels, due to economical, environmental, and geopolitical issues. Although sugarcane is traditionally harvested by burning dried leaves and tops, the unburned, mechanized harvest has been progressively adopted. The use of process based models is useful in understanding the effects of plant litter in soil C dynamics. The objective of this work was to use the CENTURY model in evaluating the effect of sugarcane residue management in the temporal dynamics of soil C. The approach taken in this work was to parameterize the CENTURY model for the sugarcane crop, to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C, validating the model through field experiment data, and finally to make predictions in the long term regarding soil C. The main focus of this work was the comparison of soil C stocks between the burned and unburned litter management systems, but the effect of mineral fertilizer and organic residue applications were also evaluated. The simulations were performed with data from experiments with different durations, from 1 to 60 yr, in Goiana and Timbauba, Pernambuco, and Pradopolis, Sao Paulo, all in Brazil; and Mount Edgecombe, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. It was possible to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C (R(2) = 0.89). The predictions made with the model revealed that there is, in the long term, a trend for higher soil C stocks with the unburned management. This increase is conditioned by factors such as climate, soil texture, time of adoption of the unburned system, and N fertilizer management.

Bayesian updating rules in continuous opinion dynamics models

Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

Performance of a horizontal-flow anaerobic immobilized biomass (HAIB) reactor and dynamics of the microbial community during degradation of pentachlorophenol (PCP)

The anaerobic biological treatment of pentachlorophenol (PCP) and methanol as the main carbon source was investigated in a horizontal-flow anaerobic immobilized biomass (HAIB) reactor at 30 +/- 1 degrees C, during a 220-day trial period. The reactor biomass was developed as an attached biofilm on polyurethane foam particles, with 24 h of hydraulic retention time. The PCP concentrations, which ranged from 2.0 to 13.0 mg/L, were controlled by adding synthetic substrate. The HAIB reactor reduced 97% of COD and removed 99% of PCP. The microbial biofilm communities of the HAIB reactor amended with PCP, without previous acclimatization, were characterized by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and amplified ribosomal DNA restriction analysis (ARDRA) with specific Archaea oligonucleotide primers. The ARDRA technique provided an adequate analysis of the community, revealing the profile of the selected population along the reactor. The biomass activities in the HAIB reactor at the end of the experiments indicated the development of PCP degraders and the maintenance of the population of methanogenic Archaea, ensuring the high efficiency of the system treating PCP with added methanol as the cosubstrate. The use of the simplified ARDRA method enabled us to monitor the microbial population with the addition of high concentrations of toxic compounds and highlighting a selection of microorganisms in the biofilm. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform triangular, and exponential random variables. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in an Oxisol as Affected by Liming and Crop Residues under No-Till

The short-term effects of surface lime application and black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) residues, with or without N fertilization, were evaluated in a long-term no-till (NT) system on a sandy clay loam, a kaolinitic, thermic Typic Hapludox from the state of Parana, Brazil. The main plot treatments were: control and dolomitic lime applied on soil surface at 8 Mg ha(-1). Three treatments with crop residues were evaluated on the subplots: (i) fallow, (ii) black oat residues, and (iii) black oat residues aft er N fertilization at 180 kg ha(-1). Black oat dry biomass was not affected by the treatments during 3 yr. Surface liming increased soil pH, microbial biomass, microbial activity, and bacterial/fungal ratio at the soil surface (0-5 cm), resulting in increased amino acid turnover, water-soluble humic substances formation, and N mineralization and nitrification. While the application of black oat did increase the soil pH, overall it had much less effect on soil biological processes and C and N pools than did lime. We concluded that black oat cannot replace the need for lime to optimize crop production in these tropical NT systems. In the long term, however, black oat should aid in the amelioration of acidity and replenishment of soil organic C pools and should help reduce erosion. Overall, this study suggests that overapplication of inorganic fertilizer N may occur in some tropical NT systems. Further experiments are required in NT systems to investigate the use of slow-release N fertilizers in combination with lime and black oat as a mechanism to reduce acidification and promote sustainability.

Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics in Oxisols of Ibiruba (Brazil) with the Century Model

introduction of conservation practices in degraded agricultural land will generally recuperate soil quality, especially by increasing soil organic matter. This aspect of soil organic C (SOC) dynamics under distinct cropping and management systems can be conveniently analyzed with ecosystem models such as the Century Model. In this study, Century was used to simulate SOC stocks in farm fields of the Ibiruba region of north central Rio Grande do Sul state in Southern Brazil. The region, where soils are predominantly Oxisols, was originally covered with subtropical woodlands and grasslands. SOC dynamics was simulated with a general scenario developed with historical data on soil management and cropping systems beginning with the onset of agriculture in 1900. From 1993 to 2050, two contrasting scenarios based on no-tillage soil management were established: the status quo scenario, with crops and agricultural inputs as currently practiced in the region and the high biomass scenario with increased frequency of corn in the cropping system, resulting in about 80% higher biomass addition to soils. Century simulations were in close agreement with SOC stocks measured in 2005 in the Oxisols with finer texture surface horizon originally under woodlands. However, simulations in the Oxisols with loamy surface horizon under woodlands and in the grassland soils were not as accurate. SOC stock decreased from 44% to 50% in fields originally under woodland and from 20% to 27% in fields under grasslands with the introduction of intensive annual grain crops with intensive tillage and harrowing operations. The adoption of conservation practices in the 1980s led to a stabilization of SOC stocks followed by a partial recovery of native stocks. Simulations to 2050 indicate that maintaining status quo would allow SOC stocks to recover from 81% to 86% of the native stocks under woodland and from 80% to 91 % of the native stocks under grasslands. Adoption of a high biomass scenario would result in stocks from 75% to 95% of the original stocks under woodlands and from 89% to 102% in the grasslands by 2050. These simulations outcomes underline the importance of cropping system yielding higher biomass to further increase SOC content in these Oxisols. This application of the Century Model could reproduce general trends of SOC loss and recovery in the Oxisols of the Ibiruba region. Additional calibration and validation should be conducted before extensive usage of Century as a support tool for soil carbon sequestration projects in this and other regions can be recommended. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.