17 resultados para Uncertainty in governance
em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)
Resumo:
We show that single and multislit experiments involving matter waves may be constructed to assess dispersively generated correlations between the position and momentum of a single free particle. These correlations give rise to position dependent phases which develop dynamically as a result of dispersion and may play an important role in the interference patterns. To the extent that initial transverse coherence is preserved throughout the proposed diffraction setup, such interference patterns are noticeably different from those of a classical dispersion free wave. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.
Resumo:
The double helicity asymmetry in neutral pion production for p(T) = 1 to 12 GeV/c was measured with the PHENIX experiment to access the gluon-spin contribution, Delta G, to the proton spin. Measured asymmetries are consistent with zero, and at a theory scale of mu 2 = 4 GeV(2) a next to leading order QCD analysis gives Delta G([0.02,0.3]) = 0.2, with a constraint of -0.7 < Delta G([0.02,0.3]) < 0.5 at Delta chi(2) = 9 (similar to 3 sigma) for the sampled gluon momentum fraction (x) range, 0.02 to 0.3. The results are obtained using predictions for the measured asymmetries generated from four representative fits to polarized deep inelastic scattering data. We also consider the dependence of the Delta G constraint on the choice of the theoretical scale, a dominant uncertainty in these predictions.
Resumo:
The microtube is a simple and cheap emitter that was widely used throughout the world in the early days of drip irrigation. Its length can be adjusted according to the pressure distribution along the lateral line and the discharge from the microtube can be adjusted by its length. This not only counters the pressure loss due to pipe friction but also makes it suitable for undulating and hilly conditions, where pressure in the lateral line varies considerably according to the differences in elevation. This is the major problem facing the designer, i.e., emitter flow changes as the acting pressure head changes. In this study, a novel micro-sprinkler system is proposed that uses microtube as the emitter and where the length of the microtube can be varied in response to pressure changes along the lateral to give uniformity of emitter discharges. The objective of this work is to develop and validate empirical and semi-theoretical equations for the emitter hydraulics. Laboratory testing of two microtube emitters of different diameter over a range of pressures and discharges was used in the development of the equations relating pressure and discharge, and pressure and length for these emitters. The equations proposed will be used in the design of the micro-sprinkler system, to determine the length of microtube required to give the nominal discharge for any given pressure. The semi-theoretical approach underlined the importance of accurate measurements of the microtube diameter and the uncertainty in the estimation of the friction factor for these tubes.
Resumo:
The polymer tensiometer is a novel instrument to measure soil water pressure heads from saturation to permanent wilting conditions. We used tensiometers of this type in an experiment to determine the hydraulic properties of evaporating soil samples in the laboratory. Relative errors in the hydraulic conductivity function in the wet part were high due to the relatively low accuracy of the pressure transducers, resulting in a large uncertainty in the hydraulic gradient and therefore in the calculated hydraulic conductivity. In the dry part, the error related to this accuracy was on the same order of magnitude as the error related to balance accuracy. Therefore, the method can be assumed adequate for measuring soil hydraulic properties except under very wet conditions. In our experiments, relative error and bias increased significantly at pressure heads less negative than -1 m.
Resumo:
The largest earthquake observed in the stable continental interior of the South American plate occurred in Serra do Tombador, Mato Grosso state - Brazil, on January 31,1955 with a magnitude of 6.2 m(b). Since then no other earthquake has been located near the 1955 epicentre. However, in Porto dos Gauchos, 100 km northeast of Serra do Tombador, a recurrent seismicity has been observed since 1959. Both Serra do Tombador and Porto dos Gauchos are located in the Phanerozoic Parecis basin. Two magnitude 5 earthquakes occurred in Porto dos Gauchos, in 1998 and 2005, with intensities up to VI and V, respectively. These two main shocks were followed by aftershock sequences lasting more than three years each. Local seismic stations have been deployed by the Seismological Observatory of the University of Brasilia since 1998 to study the ""Porto dos Gauchos"" seismic zone (PGSZ). A local seismic refraction survey was carried out with two explosions to help define the seismic velocity model. Both the 1998 and 2005 earthquake sequences occurred in the same WSW-ENE oriented fault zone with right-lateral strike-slip mechanisms. The epicentral zone is in the Parecis basin, near its northern border where there are buried grabens, generally trending WNW-ESE, such as the deep Mesoproterozoic Caiabis graben which lies partly beneath the Parecis basin. However, the epicentral distribution indicates that the 1998 and 2005 sequences are related to a N60 degrees E fault which probably crosses the entire Caiabis graben. The 1955 earthquake, despite the uncertainty in its epicentre, does not seem to be directly related to any buried graben either. The seismicity in the Porto dos Gauchos seismic zone, therefore, is not directly related to rifted crust. The probable direction of the maximum horizontal stress near Porto dos Gauchos is roughly E-W, consistent with other focal mechanisms further south in the Pantanal basin and Paraguay. but seems to be different from the NW-SE direction observed further north in the Amazon basin. The recurrent seismicity observed in Porto dos Gauchos, and the large 1955 earthquake nearby, make this area of the Parecis basin one of the most important seismic zones of Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
We calculate the spectra of produced thermal photons in Au + Au collisions taking into account the nonequilibrium contribution to photon production due to finite shear viscosity. The evolution of the fireball is modeled by second-order as well as by divergence-type 2 + 1 dissipative hydrodynamics, both with an ideal equation of state and with one based on Lattice QCD that includes an analytical crossover. The spectrum calculated in the divergence-type theory is considerably enhanced with respect to the one calculated in the second-order theory, the difference being entirely due to differences in the viscous corrections to photon production. Our results show that the differences in hydrodynamic formalisms are an important source of uncertainty in the extraction of the value of eta/s from measured photon spectra. The uncertainty in the value of eta/s associated with different hydrodynamic models used to compute thermal photon spectra is larger than the one occurring in matching hadron elliptic flow to RHIC data. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.
Resumo:
Live aboveground biomass (AGB) is an important source of uncertainty in the carbon balance from the tropical regions in part due scarcity of reliable estimates of live AGB and its variation across landscapes and forest types. Studies of forest structure and biomass stocks of Neotropical forests are biased toward Amazonian and Central American sites. In particular, standardized estimates of aboveground biomass stocks for the Brazilian Atlantic forest are rarely available. Notwithstanding the role of environmental variables that control the distribution and abundance of biomass in tropical lowland forests has been the subject of considerable research, the effect of short, steep elevational gradients on tropical forest structure and carbon dynamics is not well known. In order to evaluate forest structure and live AGB variation along an elevational gradient (0-1100 m a.s.l.) of coastal Atlantic Forest in SE Brazil, we carried out a standard census of woody stems >= 4.8 cm dbh in 13 1-ha permanent plots established on four different sites in 2006-2007. Live AGB ranged from 166.3 Mg ha(-1) (bootstrapped 95% CI: 1444,187.0) to 283.2 Mg ha(-1) (bootstrapped 95% CI: 253.0,325.2) and increased with elevation. We found that local-scale topographic variation associated with elevation influences the distribution of trees >50 cm dbh and total live AGB. Across all elevations, we found more stems (64-75%) with limited crown illumination but the largest proportion of the live AGB (68-85%) was stored in stems with highly illuminated or fully exposed crowns. Topography, disturbance and associated changes in light and nutrient supply probably control biomass distribution along this short but representative elevational gradient. Our findings also showed that intact Atlantic forest sites stored substantial amounts of carbon aboveground. The live tree AGB of the stands was found to be lower than Central Amazonian forests, but within the range of Neotropical forests, in particular when compared to Central American forests. Our comparative data suggests that differences in live tree AGB among Neotropical forests are probably related to the heterogeneous distribution of large and medium-sized diameter trees within forests and how the live biomass is partitioned among those size classes, in accordance with general trends found by previous studies. In addition, the elevational variation in live AGB stocks suggests a large spatial variability over coastal Atlantic forests in Brazil, clearly indicating that it is important to consider regional differences in biomass stocks for evaluating the role of this threatened tropical biome in the global carbon cycle. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In this paper, the Askey-Wiener scheme and the Galerkin method are used to obtain approximate solutions to stochastic beam bending on Winkler foundation. The study addresses Euler-Bernoulli beams with uncertainty in the bending stiffness modulus and in the stiffness of the foundation. Uncertainties are represented by parameterized stochastic processes. The random behavior of beam response is modeled using the Askey-Wiener scheme. One contribution of the paper is a sketch of proof of existence and uniqueness of the solution to problems involving fourth order operators applied to random fields. From the approximate Galerkin solution, expected value and variance of beam displacement responses are derived, and compared with corresponding estimates obtained via Monte Carlo simulation. Results show very fast convergence and excellent accuracies in comparison to Monte Carlo simulation. The Askey-Wiener Galerkin scheme presented herein is shown to be a theoretically solid and numerically efficient method for the solution of stochastic problems in engineering.
Resumo:
This paper presents a study of a specific type of beam-to-column connection for precast concrete structures. Furthermore, an analytical model to determine the strength and the stiffness of the connection, based on test results of two prototypes, is proposed. To evaluate the influence of the strength and stiffness of the connection on the behaviour of the structure, the results of numerical simulations of a typical multi-storey building with semi-rigid connections are also presented and compared with the results using pinned and rigid connections. The main conclusions are: (a) the proposed design model can reasonably evaluate the studied connection strength; (b) the evaluation of strength is more accurate than that of stiffness; (c) for a typical structure, it is possible to increase the number of storeys of the structure from two to four with lower horizontal displacement at the top, and only a small increase of the column base bending moment by replacing the pinned connections with semi-rigid ones; and (d) although there is significant uncertainty in the connection stiffness, the results show that the displacements at the top of the structure, and the column base moments present low susceptibility deviations to this parameter.
Resumo:
A methodology for rock-excavation structural-reliability analysis that uses Distinct Element Method numerical models is presented. The methodology solves the problem of the conventional numerical models that supply only punctual results and use fixed input parameters, without considering its statistical errors. The analysis of rock-excavation stability must consider uncertainties from geological variability, from uncertainty in the choice of mechanical behaviour hypothesis, and from uncertainties in parameters adopted in numerical model construction. These uncertainties can be analyzed in simple deterministic models, but a new methodology was developed for numerical models with results of several natures. The methodology is based on Monte Carlo simulations and uses principles of Paraconsistent Logic. It will be presented in the analysis of a final slope of a large-dimensioned surface mine.
Resumo:
Here, we study the stable integration of real time optimization (RTO) with model predictive control (MPC) in a three layer structure. The intermediate layer is a quadratic programming whose objective is to compute reachable targets to the MPC layer that lie at the minimum distance to the optimum set points that are produced by the RTO layer. The lower layer is an infinite horizon MPC with guaranteed stability with additional constraints that force the feasibility and convergence of the target calculation layer. It is also considered the case in which there is polytopic uncertainty in the steady state model considered in the target calculation. The dynamic part of the MPC model is also considered unknown but it is assumed to be represented by one of the models of a discrete set of models. The efficiency of the methods presented here is illustrated with the simulation of a low order system. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Introduction: The inability to distinguish periapical cysts from granulomas before performing root canal treatment leads to uncertainty in treatment outcomes because cysts have lower healing rates. Searching for differential expression of molecules within cysts or granulomas could provide information with regard to the identity of the lesion or suggest mechanistic differences that may form the basis for future therapeutic intervention. Thus, we investigated whether granulomas and cysts exhibit differential expression of extracellular matrix (ECM) molecules. Methods: Human periapical granulomas, periapical cysts, and healthy periodontal ligament tissues were used to investigate the differential expression of ECM molecules by microarray analysis. Because matrix metalloproteinases (MMP) showed the highest differential expression in the microarray analysis, MMPs were further examined by in situ zymography and immunohistochemistry. Data were analyzed by using one-way analysis of variance followed by the Tu-key test. Results: We observed that cysts and granulomas differentially expressed several ECM molecules, especially those from the MMP family. Compared with cysts, granulomas exhibited higher MMP enzymatic activity in areas stained for MMP-9. These areas were composed of polymorphonuclear cells (PMNs) in contrast to cysts. Similarly, MMP-13 was expressed by a greater number of cells in granulomas compared with cysts. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that high enzymatic MIMP activity in PMNs together with MMP-9 and MMP-13 stained cells could be a molecular signature of granulomas unlike periapical cysts. (J Endod 2009;35:1234-1242)
Resumo:
Data from 58 strong-lensing events surveyed by the Sloan Lens ACS Survey are used to estimate the projected galaxy mass inside their Einstein radii by two independent methods: stellar dynamics and strong gravitational lensing. We perform a joint analysis of these two estimates inside models with up to three degrees of freedom with respect to the lens density profile, stellar velocity anisotropy, and line-of-sight (LOS) external convergence, which incorporates the effect of the large-scale structure on strong lensing. A Bayesian analysis is employed to estimate the model parameters, evaluate their significance, and compare models. We find that the data favor Jaffe`s light profile over Hernquist`s, but that any particular choice between these two does not change the qualitative conclusions with respect to the features of the system that we investigate. The density profile is compatible with an isothermal, being sightly steeper and having an uncertainty in the logarithmic slope of the order of 5% in models that take into account a prior ignorance on anisotropy and external convergence. We identify a considerable degeneracy between the density profile slope and the anisotropy parameter, which largely increases the uncertainties in the estimates of these parameters, but we encounter no evidence in favor of an anisotropic velocity distribution on average for the whole sample. An LOS external convergence following a prior probability distribution given by cosmology has a small effect on the estimation of the lens density profile, but can increase the dispersion of its value by nearly 40%.
Resumo:
The end of the Neoproterozoic era is punctuated by two global glacial events marked by the presence of glacial deposits overlaid by cap carbonates. Duration of glacial intervals is now consistently constrained to 3-12 million years but the duration of the post-glacial transition is more controversial due to the uncertainty in cap dolostone sedimentation rates. Indeed, the presence of several stratabound magnetic reversals in Brazilian cap dolostones recently questioned the short sedimentation duration (a few thousand years at most) that was initially suggested for these rocks. Here, we present new detailed magnetostratigraphic data of the Mirassol d`Oeste cap dolostones (Mato Grosso, Brazil) and ""bomb-spike"" calibrated AMS (14)C data of microbial mats from the Lagoa Vermelha (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). We also compile sedimentary, isotopic and microbiological data from post-Marinoan outcrops and/or recent depositional analogues in order to discuss the deposition rate of Marinoan cap dolostones and to infer an estimation of the deglaciation duration in the snowball Earth aftermath. Taken together, the various data point to a sedimentation duration in the range of a few 10(5) years. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.