Spatio-Temporal Tracking and Phylodynamics of an Urban Dengue 3 Outbreak in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The dengue virus has a single-stranded positive-sense RNA genome of similar to 10.700 nucleotides with a single open reading frame that encodes three structural (C, prM, and E) and seven nonstructural (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) proteins. It possesses four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV 1-4). Many phylogenetic studies address particularities of the different serotypes using convenience samples that are not conducive to a spatio-temporal analysis in a single urban setting. We describe the pattern of spread of distinct lineages of DENV-3 circulating in Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil, during 2006. Blood samples from patients presenting dengue-like symptoms were collected for DENV testing. We performed M-N-PCR using primers based on NS5 for virus detection and identification. The fragments were purified from PCR mixtures and sequenced. The positive dengue cases were geo-coded. To type the sequenced samples, 52 reference sequences were aligned. The dataset generated was used for iterative phylogenetic reconstruction with the maximum likelihood criterion. The best demographic model, the rate of growth, rate of evolutionary change, and Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were estimated. The basic reproductive rate during the epidemics was estimated. We obtained sequences from 82 patients among 174 blood samples. We were able to geo-code 46 sequences. The alignment generated a 399-nucleotide-long dataset with 134 taxa. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that all samples were of DENV-3 and related to strains circulating on the isle of Martinique in 2000-2001. Sixty DENV-3 from Sao Jose do Rio Preto formed a monophyletic group (lineage 1), closely related to the remaining 22 isolates (lineage 2). We assumed that these lineages appeared before 2006 in different occasions. By transforming the inferred exponential growth rates into the basic reproductive rate, we obtained values for lineage 1 of R(0) = 1.53 and values for lineage 2 of R(0) = 1.13. Under the exponential model, TMRCA of lineage 1 dated 1 year and lineage 2 dated 3.4 years before the last sampling. The possibility of inferring the spatio-temporal dynamics from genetic data has been generally little explored, and it may shed light on DENV circulation. The use of both geographic and temporally structured phylogenetic data provided a detailed view on the spread of at least two dengue viral strains in a populated urban area.

Disparity between Multilocus Enzyme Electrophoresis, Microsatellite Markers and Pulsed-Field Gel Electrophoresis in epidemiological tracking of Candida albicans

Various molecular systems are available for epidemiological, genetic, evolutionary, taxonomic and systematic studies of innumerable fungal infections, especially those caused by the opportunistic pathogen C. albicans. A total of 75 independent oral isolates were selected in order to compare Multilocus Enzyme Electrophoresis (MLEE), Electrophoretic Karyotyping (EK) and Microsatellite Markers (Simple Sequence Repeats - SSRs), in their abilities to differentiate and group C. albicans isolates (discriminatory power), and also, to evaluate the concordance and similarity of the groups of strains determined by cluster analysis for each fingerprinting method. Isoenzyme typing was performed using eleven enzyme systems: Adh, Sdh, M1p, Mdh, Idh, Gdh, G6pdh, Asd, Cat, Po, and Lap (data previously published). The EK method consisted of chromosomal DNA separation by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis using a CHEF system. The microsatellite markers were investigated by PCR using three polymorphic loci: EF3, CDC3, and HIS3. Dendrograms were generated by the SAHN method and UPGMA algorithm based on similarity matrices (S(SM)). The discriminatory power of the three methods was over 95%, however a paired analysis among them showed a parity of 19.7-22.4% in the identification of strains. Weak correlation was also observed among the genetic similarity matrices (S(SM)(MLEE) x S(SM)(EK) x S(SM)(SSRs)). Clustering analyses showed a mean of 9 +/- 12.4 isolates per cluster (3.8 +/- 8 isolates/taxon) for MLEE, 6.2 +/- 4.9 isolates per cluster (4 +/- 4.5 isolates/taxon) for SSRs, and 4.1 +/- 2.3 isolates per cluster (2.6 +/- 2.3 isolates/taxon) for EK. A total of 45 (13%), 39(11.2%), 5 (1.4%) and 3 (0.9%) clusters pairs from 347 showed similarity (Si) of 0.1-10%, 10.1-20%, 20.1-30% and 30.1-40%, respectively. Clinical and molecular epidemiological correlation involving the opportunistic pathogen C. albicans may be attributed dependently of each method of genotyping (i.e., MLEE, EK, and SSRs) supplemented with similarity and grouping analysis. Therefore, the use of genotyping systems that give results which offer minimum disparity, or the combination of the results of these systems, can provide greater security and consistency in the determination of strains and their genetic relationships. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tracking 10-year competitive winning performance of judo athletes across age groups

Little information is available concerning early specialization and competitive success in judo across the early training years. Thus, the present objective was to verify the stability of individual competitive performance of a state-level championship for judo athletes who had been previously successful. For this, 406 athletes from six age groups (9 to 20+ years old) of each sex were followed for 10 years. Using recorded data from the Sao Paulo State Judo Federation beginning in 1999, the scores and standings for these judo players were analyzed. The proportion of medal winners during this period was not constant, differing from the grand mean in all groups of both 204 males and 202 females. At the end of this period, only 7% of the male and 5% of the female athletes had maintained their competitive levels. Successful competitive performance in early judo competition was not associated with success later in adulthood.

Stable MPC for tracking with maximal domain of attraction

In this work, a stable MPC that maximizes the domain of attraction of the closed-loop system is proposed. The proposed approach is suitable to real applications in the sense that it accounts for the case of output tracking, it is offset free if the output target is reachable and minimizes the offset if some of the constraints are active at steady state. The new approach is based on the definition of a Minkowski functional related to the input and terminal constraints of the stable infinite horizon MPC. It is also shown that the domain of attraction is defined by the system model and the constraints, and it does not depend on the controller tuning parameters. The proposed controller is illustrated with small order examples of the control literature. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust model predictive controller with output feedback and target tracking

A model predictive controller (MPC) is proposed, which is robustly stable for some classes of model uncertainty and to unknown disturbances. It is considered as the case of open-loop stable systems, where only the inputs and controlled outputs are measured. It is assumed that the controller will work in a scenario where target tracking is also required. Here, it is extended to the nominal infinite horizon MPC with output feedback. The method considers an extended cost function that can be made globally convergent for any finite input horizon considered for the uncertain system. The method is based on the explicit inclusion of cost contracting constraints in the control problem. The controller considers the output feedback case through a non-minimal state-space model that is built using past output measurements and past input increments. The application of the robust output feedback MPC is illustrated through the simulation of a low-order multivariable system.

MPC for tracking zone regions

This paper deals with the problem of tracking target sets using a model predictive control (MPC) law. Some MPC applications require a control strategy in which some system outputs are controlled within specified ranges or zones (zone control), while some other variables - possibly including input variables - are steered to fixed target or set-point. In real applications, this problem is often overcome by including and excluding an appropriate penalization for the output errors in the control cost function. In this way, throughout the continuous operation of the process, the control system keeps switching from one controller to another, and even if a stabilizing control law is developed for each of the control configurations, switching among stable controllers not necessarily produces a stable closed loop system. From a theoretical point of view, the control objective of this kind of problem can be seen as a target set (in the output space) instead of a target point, since inside the zones there are no preferences between one point or another. In this work, a stable MPC formulation for constrained linear systems, with several practical properties is developed for this scenario. The concept of distance from a point to a set is exploited to propose an additional cost term, which ensures both, recursive feasibility and local optimality. The performance of the proposed strategy is illustrated by simulation of an ill-conditioned distillation column. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Carrier Tracking for Mars to Earth Communications During Entry, Descent, and Landing

We propose a robust and low complexity scheme to estimate and track carrier frequency from signals traveling under low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) conditions in highly nonstationary channels. These scenarios arise in planetary exploration missions subject to high dynamics, such as the Mars exploration rover missions. The method comprises a bank of adaptive linear predictors (ALP) supervised by a convex combiner that dynamically aggregates the individual predictors. The adaptive combination is able to outperform the best individual estimator in the set, which leads to a universal scheme for frequency estimation and tracking. A simple technique for bias compensation considerably improves the ALP performance. It is also shown that retrieval of frequency content by a fast Fourier transform (FFT)-search method, instead of only inspecting the angle of a particular root of the error predictor filter, enhances performance, particularly at very low SNR levels. Simple techniques that enforce frequency continuity improve further the overall performance. In summary we illustrate by extensive simulations that adaptive linear prediction methods render a robust and competitive frequency tracking technique.

Improving the tracking capability of adaptive filters via convex combination

As is well known, Hessian-based adaptive filters (such as the recursive-least squares algorithm (RLS) for supervised adaptive filtering, or the Shalvi-Weinstein algorithm (SWA) for blind equalization) converge much faster than gradient-based algorithms [such as the least-mean-squares algorithm (LMS) or the constant-modulus algorithm (CMA)]. However, when the problem is tracking a time-variant filter, the issue is not so clear-cut: there are environments for which each family presents better performance. Given this, we propose the use of a convex combination of algorithms of different families to obtain an algorithm with superior tracking capability. We show the potential of this combination and provide a unified theoretical model for the steady-state excess mean-square error for convex combinations of gradient- and Hessian-based algorithms, assuming a random-walk model for the parameter variations. The proposed model is valid for algorithms of the same or different families, and for supervised (LMS and RLS) or blind (CMA and SWA) algorithms.

Tracking the Ovarian Cycle in Black-and-Gold Howlers (Alouatta caraya) by Measuring Fecal Steroids and Observing Vaginal Bleeding

A better understanding of a species` reproductive physiology can help conservation programs to manage primates in the wild and develop assisted reproductive technologies in captivity. We investigated whether measurements of fecal progestin and estrogen metabolites obtained by a radioimmunoassay could be used to monitor the ovarian cycle of Alouatta caraya. We also compared the occurrence of vaginal bleeding with the hormone profiles. We collected fecal samples from 3 adult and 1 subadult captive female over 5 mo and performed vaginal cytology for the adults. The interval between fecal progestin surges in the adult females was 19.11 +/- 2.14 d (n = 18 cycles). Fecal progestin concentrations remained at basal values for 9.83 +/- 2.21 d (n = 18) and rose to elevated values for 9.47 +/- 0.72 d (n = 19). The subadult female showed basal levels of fecal estrogen and progestin concentrations throughout the study, suggesting that our hormone measurements are valid to monitor the ovarian cycle. Bleeding periods coincided with basal levels of fecal estrogens and progestin at intervals of 19.8 +/- 0.9 d and lasted for 4.1 +/- 1.0 d. Although we obtained these data from only 3 individuals, the results indicate that this species likely has a menstrual-type ovarian cycle. These data provide the first endocrine profile for the Alouatta caraya ovarian cycle and are similar to results obtained for other howler species. This similarity is important for comparative studies of howlers, allowing for a better understanding of their reproductive physiology and contributing to a critical information base for managing Alouatta species.

Front tracking with moving-least-squares surfaces

The representation of interfaces by means of the algebraic moving-least-squares (AMLS) technique is addressed. This technique, in which the interface is represented by an unconnected set of points, is interesting for evolving fluid interfaces since there is]to surface connectivity. The position of the surface points can thus be updated without concerns about the quality of any surface triangulation. We introduce a novel AMLS technique especially designed for evolving-interfaces applications that we denote RAMLS (for Robust AMLS). The main advantages with respect to previous AMLS techniques are: increased robustness, computational efficiency, and being free of user-tuned parameters. Further, we propose a new front-tracking method based on the Lagrangian advection of the unconnected point set that defines the RAMLS surface. We assume that a background Eulerian grid is defined with some grid spacing h. The advection of the point set makes the surface evolve in time. The point cloud can be regenerated at any time (in particular, we regenerate it each time step) by intersecting the gridlines with the evolved surface, which guarantees that the density of points on the surface is always well balanced. The intersection algorithm is essentially a ray-tracing algorithm, well-studied in computer graphics, in which a line (ray) is traced so as to detect all intersections with a surface. Also, the tracing of each gridline is independent and can thus be performed in parallel. Several tests are reported assessing first the accuracy of the proposed RAMLS technique, and then of the front-tracking method based on it. Comparison with previous Eulerian, Lagrangian and hybrid techniques encourage further development of the proposed method for fluid mechanics applications. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mice and larvae tracking using a particle filter with an auto-adjustable observation model

This paper proposes a novel way to combine different observation models in a particle filter framework. This, so called, auto-adjustable observation model, enhance the particle filter accuracy when the tracked objects overlap without infringing a great runtime penalty to the whole tracking system. The approach has been tested under two important real world situations related to animal behavior: mice and larvae tracking. The proposal was compared to some state-of-art approaches and the results show, under the datasets tested, that a good trade-off between accuracy and runtime can be achieved using an auto-adjustable observation model. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiple camera people detection and tracking using support integration

This paper proposes a method to locate and track people by combining evidence from multiple cameras using the homography constraint. The proposed method use foreground pixels from simple background subtraction to compute evidence of the location of people on a reference ground plane. The algorithm computes the amount of support that basically corresponds to the ""foreground mass"" above each pixel. Therefore, pixels that correspond to ground points have more support. The support is normalized to compensate for perspective effects and accumulated on the reference plane for all camera views. The detection of people on the reference plane becomes a search for regions of local maxima in the accumulator. Many false positives are filtered by checking the visibility consistency of the detected candidates against all camera views. The remaining candidates are tracked using Kalman filters and appearance models. Experimental results using challenging data from PETS`06 show good performance of the method in the presence of severe occlusion. Ground truth data also confirms the robustness of the method. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Robust, Fully Adaptive Hybrid Level-Set/Front-Tracking Method for Two-Phase Flows with an Accurate Surface Tension Computation

We present a variable time step, fully adaptive in space, hybrid method for the accurate simulation of incompressible two-phase flows in the presence of surface tension in two dimensions. The method is based on the hybrid level set/front-tracking approach proposed in [H. D. Ceniceros and A. M. Roma, J. Comput. Phys., 205, 391400, 2005]. Geometric, interfacial quantities are computed from front-tracking via the immersed-boundary setting while the signed distance (level set) function, which is evaluated fast and to machine precision, is used as a fluid indicator. The surface tension force is obtained by employing the mixed Eulerian/Lagrangian representation introduced in [S. Shin, S. I. Abdel-Khalik, V. Daru and D. Juric, J. Comput. Phys., 203, 493-516, 2005] whose success for greatly reducing parasitic currents has been demonstrated. The use of our accurate fluid indicator together with effective Lagrangian marker control enhance this parasitic current reduction by several orders of magnitude. To resolve accurately and efficiently sharp gradients and salient flow features we employ dynamic, adaptive mesh refinements. This spatial adaption is used in concert with a dynamic control of the distribution of the Lagrangian nodes along the fluid interface and a variable time step, linearly implicit time integration scheme. We present numerical examples designed to test the capabilities and performance of the proposed approach as well as three applications: the long-time evolution of a fluid interface undergoing Rayleigh-Taylor instability, an example of bubble ascending dynamics, and a drop impacting on a free interface whose dynamics we compare with both existing numerical and experimental data.