Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore

Notified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13 817 cases) and the reason for such all increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004-2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient ill preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.

FOR DEBATE A hypothesis for the 2007 dengue outbreak in Singapore

A previous mathematical model explaining dengue in Singapore predicted a reasonable outbreak of about 6500 cases for 2006 and a very mild outbreak with about 2000 cases for 2007. However, only 3051 cases were reported in 2006 while more than 7800 were reported in the first 44 weeks of 2007. We hypothesized that the combination of haze with other local sources of particulate matter had a significant impact on mosquito life expectancy, significantly increasing their mortality rate. To test the hypothesis a mathematical model based on the reproduction number of dengue fever and aimed at comparing the impact of several possible alternative control strategies was proposed. This model also aimed at contributing to the understanding of the causes of dengue resurgence in Singapore in the last decade. The model`s simulation demonstrated that an increase in mosquito mortality in 2006 and either a reduction in mortality or an increase in the carrying capacity of mosquitoes in 2007 explained the patterned observed in Singapore. Based on the model`s simulation we concluded that the fewer than expected number of dengue cases in Singapore in 2006 was caused by an increase in mosquito mortality due to the disproportionate haze affecting the country that year and that particularly favourable environmental conditions in 2007 propitiated mosquitoes with a lower mortality rate, which explains the greater than expected number of dengue cases in 2007. Whether our hypothesis is plausible or not should be debated further.

Threat of Dengue to Blood Safety in Dengue-Endemic Countries

Dengue, the most common arbovirus infection globally, is transmitted by mosquito vectors. Healthcare-related transmission, including transmission by blood products, has been documented, although the frequency of these occurrences is unknown. Dengue is endemic to Singapore, a city-state in Asia. Using mathematical modeling, we estimated the risk for dengue-infected blood transfusions in Singapore in 2005 to be 1.625-6/10,000 blood transfusions, assuming a ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic infections of 2:1 to 10:1. However, the level of viremia required to cause clinical dengue cases is person-dependent and unknown. Further studies are needed to establish the magnitude of the threat that dengue poses to blood safety in countries where it is endemic. It will then be possible to assess whether screening is feasible and to identify approaches that are most cost-effective on the basis of characteristics of local populations and seasonality of dengue.

Coactivation of the shoulder and arm muscles during closed kinetic chain exercises on an unstable surface

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to compare the electromyography index of muscle coactivation of the following muscle pairs: posterior deltoid and pectoralis major (PD/PM); triceps brachii and biceps brachii (TB/BB); and serratus anterior and upper trapezius (SA/UT) during three different closed kinetic chain exercises (wall-press, bench-press and push-up) on an unstable surface at the maximal load. Methods: A total of 20 healthy sedentary men participated in the study. Integral linear values were obtained from three sustained contractions of six seconds each for the three proposed exercises. Mean coactivation index values were compared using the mixed-effects linear model, with a five percent significance level. Results: Electromyography indexes of muscle coactivation showed significant differences for the PD/PM and TB/BB muscle pairs. No differences were found between exercises for the SA/UT muscle pair. Conclusion: Our results seem to differ from those of previous studies, which reported that the similarity in exercises performed is responsible for the comparable muscle activation levels.

Structure of PbTe(SiO(2))/SiO(2) multilayers deposited on Si(111)

The structure of thin films composed of a multilayer of PbTe nanocrystals embedded in SiO(2), named as PbTe(SiO(2)), between homogeneous layers of amorphous SiO(2) deposited on a single-crystal Si( 111) substrate was studied by grazing-incidence small-angle X-ray scattering (GISAXS) as a function of PbTe content. PbTe(SiO(2))/SiO(2) multilayers were produced by alternately applying plasma-enhanced chemical vapour deposition and pulsed laser deposition techniques. From the analysis of the experimental GISAXS patterns, the average radius and radius dispersion of PbTe nanocrystals were determined. With increasing deposition dose the size of the PbTe nanocrystals progressively increases while their number density decreases. Analysis of the GISAXS intensity profiles along the normal to the sample surface allowed the determination of the period parameter of the layers and a structure parameter that characterizes the disorder in the distances between PbTe layers. (C) 2010 International Union of Crystallography Printed in Singapore - all rights reserved

Bond strength and transversal deformation aging on cement-polymer adhesive mortar

Polymer-modified mortar is widely used to set ceramic tiles used as external finishing for high rise buildings in countries such as Brazil, Israel, Singapore and Portugal, mainly because it shows better bond strength and flexibility as compared to the traditional ones. Despite this, the results in the literature already published concerning the long-term performance of those composite mortars are is not conclusive. This paper, based on a laboratory program, compared the performance over time of four commercial polymer-modified adhesive mortars exposed to a typical Brazilian outdoor aging environment and to an indoor environment in terms of mortar flexibility and the bond strength to porcelain tiles. The results show that under laboratory condition, the mortars are more flexible and have higher bond strength than under external condition, and that there is an important correlation between the transversal deformability and the bond strength. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the Cytoadhesion of Plasmodium vivax-Infected Erythrocytes

Background. Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax are responsible for most of the global burden of malaria. Although the accentuated pathogenicity of P. falciparum occurs because of sequestration of the mature erythrocytic forms in the microvasculature, this phenomenon has not yet been noted in P. vivax. The increasing number of severe manifestations of P. vivax infections, similar to those observed for severe falciparum malaria, suggests that key pathogenic mechanisms (eg, cytoadherence) might be shared by the 2 parasites. Methods. Mature P. vivax-infected erythrocytes (Pv-iEs) were isolated from blood samples collected from 34 infected patients. Pv-iEs enriched on Percoll gradients were used in cytoadhesion assays with human lung endothelial cells, Saimiri brain endothelial cells, and placental cryosections. Results. Pv-iEs were able to cytoadhere under static and flow conditions to cells expressing endothelial receptors known to mediate the cytoadhesion of P. falciparum. Although Pv-iE cytoadhesion levels were 10-fold lower than those observed for P. falciparum-infected erythrocytes, the strength of the interaction was similar. Cytoadhesion of Pv-iEs was in part mediated by VIR proteins, encoded by P. vivax variant genes (vir), given that specific antisera inhibited the Pv-iE-endothelial cell interaction. Conclusions. These observations prompt a modification of the current paradigms of the pathogenesis of malaria and clear the way to investigate the pathophysiology of P. vivax infections.

Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

Scale-free network of a dengue epidemic

In this work we show that the dengue epidemic in the city of Singapore organized itself into a scale-free network of transmission as the 2000-2005 outbreaks progressed. This scale-free network of cluster comprised geographical breeding places for the aedes mosquitoes, acting as super-spreaders nodes in a network of transmission. The geographical organization of the network was analysed by the corresponding distribution of weekly number of new cases. Therefore, our hypothesis is that the distribution of dengue cases reflects the geographical organization of a transmission network, which evolved towards a power law as the epidemic intensity progressed until 2005. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multicenter Analysis of Glucocerebrosidase Mutations in Parkinson`s Disease

Background Recent studies indicate an increased frequency of mutations in the gene encoding glucocerebrosidase (GBA), a deficiency of which causes Gaucher`s disease, among patients with Parkinson`s disease. We aimed to ascertain the frequency of GBA mutations in an ethnically diverse group of patients with Parkinson`s disease. Methods Sixteen centers participated in our international, collaborative study: five from the Americas, six from Europe, two from Israel, and three from Asia. Each center genotyped a standard DNA panel to permit comparison of the genotyping results across centers. Genotypes and phenotypic data from a total of 5691 patients with Parkinson`s disease (780 Ashkenazi Jews) and 4898 controls (387 Ashkenazi Jews) were analyzed, with multivariate logistic-regression models and the Mantel-Haenszel procedure used to estimate odds ratios across centers. Results All 16 centers could detect two GBA mutations, L444P and N370S. Among Ashkenazi Jewish subjects, either mutation was found in 15% of patients and 3% of controls, and among non-Ashkenazi Jewish subjects, either mutation was found in 3% of patients and less than 1% of controls. GBA was fully sequenced for 1883 non-Ashkenazi Jewish patients, and mutations were identified in 7%, showing that limited mutation screening can miss half the mutant alleles. The odds ratio for any GBA mutation in patients versus controls was 5.43 across centers. As compared with patients who did not carry a GBA mutation, those with a GBA mutation presented earlier with the disease, were more likely to have affected relatives, and were more likely to have atypical clinical manifestations. Conclusions Data collected from 16 centers demonstrate that there is a strong association between GBA mutations and Parkinson`s disease.

Stability and related properties of vacua and ground states

We consider the formal non-relativistic limit (nrl) of the : phi(4):(s+1) relativistic quantum field theory (rqft), where s is the space dimension. Following the work of R. Jackiw [R. Jackiw, in: A. Ali, P. Hood-bhoy (Eds.), Beg Memorial Volume, World Scientific, Singapore, 1991], we show that, for s = 2 and a given value of the ultraviolet cutoff K, there are two ways to perform the nrl: (i) fixing the renormalized mass m(2) equal to the bare mass m(0)(2); (ii) keeping the renormalized mass fixed and different from the bare mass mo. In the (infinite-volume) two-particle sector the scattering amplitude tends to zero as K -> infinity in case (i) and, in case (ii), there is a bound state, indicating that the interaction potential is attractive. As a consequence, stability of matter fails for our boson system. We discuss why both alternatives do not reproduce the low-energy behaviour of the full rqft. The singular nature of the nrl is also nicely illustrated for s = 1 by a rigorous stability/instability result of a different nature. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chemical process to separate iron oxides particles in pottery sample for EPR dating

Ancient potteries usually are made of the local clay material, which contains relatively high concentration of iron. The powdered samples are usually quite black, due to magnetite, and, although they can be used for thermoluminescene (TL) dating, it is easiest to obtain better TL reading when clearest natural or pre-treated sample is used. For electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements, the huge signal due to iron spin-spin interaction, promotes an intense interference overlapping any other signal in this range. Sample dating is obtained by dividing the radiation dose, determined by the concentration of paramagnetic species generated by irradiation, by the natural dose so as a consequence, EPR dating cannot be used, since iron signal do not depend on radiation dose. In some cases, the density separation method using hydrated solution of sodium polytungstate [Na(G)(H(2)W(12)O(40))center dot H(2)O] becomes useful. However, the sodium polytungstate is very expensive in Brazil: hence an alternative method for eliminating this interference is proposed. A chemical process to eliminate about 90% of magnetite was developed. A sample of powdered ancient pottery was treated in a mixture (3:1:1) of HCI, HNO(3) and H(2)O(2) for 4 h. After that, it was washed several times in distilled water to remove all acid matrixes. The original black sample becomes somewhat clearer. The resulting material was analyzed by plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), with the result that the iron content is reduced by a factor of about 9. In EPR measurements a non-treated natural ceramic sample shows a broad spin-spin interaction signal, the chemically treated sample presents a narrow signal in g= 2.00 region, possibly due to a radical of (SiO(3))(3-), mixed with signal of remaining iron [M. lkeya, New Applications of Electron Spin Resonance, World Scientific, Singapore, 1993, p. 285]. This signal increases in intensity under -gamma-irradiation. However, still due to iron influence, the additive method yielded too old age-value. Since annealing at 300 degrees C, Toyoda and Ikeya IS. Toyoda, M. Ikeya, Geochem. J. 25 (1991) 427-445] states that E `(1)-signal with maximum intensity is obtained, while annealing at 400 degrees C E`(1)-signal is completely eliminated, the subtraction of the second one from 300 degrees C heat-treated sample isolate E`(1)-like signal. Since this is radiation dose-dependent, we show that now EPR dating becomes possible. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.