HTLV-1 Tax Specific CD8+ T Cells Express Low Levels of Tim-3 in HTLV-1 Infection: Implications for Progression to Neurological Complications

The T cell immunoglobulin mucin 3 (Tim-3) receptor is highly expressed on HIV-1-specific T cells, rendering them partially ""exhausted'' and unable to contribute to the effective immune mediated control of viral replication. To elucidate novel mechanisms contributing to the HTLV-1 neurological complex and its classic neurological presentation called HAM/TSP (HTLV-1 associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis), we investigated the expression of the Tim-3 receptor on CD8(+) T cells from a cohort of HTLV-1 seropositive asymptomatic and symptomatic patients. Patients diagnosed with HAM/TSP down-regulated Tim-3 expression on both CD8(+) and CD4(+) T cells compared to asymptomatic patients and HTLV-1 seronegative controls. HTLV-1 Tax-specific, HLA-A*02 restricted CD8(+) T cells among HAM/TSP individuals expressed markedly lower levels of Tim-3. We observed Tax expressing cells in both Tim-3(+) and Tim-3(-) fractions. Taken together, these data indicate that there is a systematic downregulation of Tim-3 levels on T cells in HTLV-1 infection, sustaining a profoundly highly active population of potentially pathogenic T cells that may allow for the development of HTLV-1 complications.

Tax Cost of Investment Projects: the case of ICMS credits

This article discusses the impact on the profitability of firms under Complementary Law 102/2000 (which abrogated the Law 89/96 - Kandir Law) allowing the appropriation of ICMS credits, due to investment in fixed assets goods, at a ratio of 1/48 per month. The paper seeks to demonstrate how this new system - which resulted in the transformation of the ICMS as a value added tax (VAT) consumption-type to an income-type - leads to a loss of approximately 30% of the value of credits to be recovered and the effect it generates on the cost of investment and the profits for small, medium and large firms. From the methodological point of view, it is a descriptive and quantitative research, which proceeded in three stages. Initially, we have obtained estimated value of net sales and volume of investments, based on report Painel de Competitividade prepared by the Federacao das Indtustrias do Estado de Sao Paulo (Fiesp/Serasa). Based on this information, it was possible to obtain estimates of the factors of generation of debits and credits for ICMS, using the model Credit Control of Fixed Assets (CIAP). Finally, we have calculated three indicators: (i) present value of debt recovery/value of credits, (ii) present value of debt recovery / investment value, (iii) present value of debt recovery / sales profitability. We have conclude that the system introduced by Complementary Law 102/2000 implicates great opportunity cost for firms and that legislation should be reviewed from this perspective, aiming to ensure lower costs associated with investment projects.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Nominal versus indexed debt: A quantitative horse race

The main arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debts are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortion, government outlays uncertainty, and contingent-debt service. Our framework also recognizes that contingent debt can be associated with incentive problems and lack of commitment. Thus, the benefits of unexpected inflation are tempered by higher interest rates. We obtain that costs from inflation more than offset the benefits from reducing tax distortions. We further discuss sustainability of nominal debt in developing (volatile) countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.