The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

Hardware/firmware implementation of a soft sensor using an improved version of a fuzzy identification algorithm

This paper presents the design and implementation of an embedded soft sensor, i. e., a generic and autonomous hardware module, which can be applied to many complex plants, wherein a certain variable cannot be directly measured. It is implemented based on a fuzzy identification algorithm called ""Limited Rules"", employed to model continuous nonlinear processes. The fuzzy model has a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang structure and the premise parameters are defined based on the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm. The firmware contains the soft sensor and it runs online, estimating the target variable from other available variables. Tests have been performed using a simulated pH neutralization plant. The results of the embedded soft sensor have been considered satisfactory. A complete embedded inferential control system is also presented, including a soft sensor and a PID controller. (c) 2007, ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mannose-binding lectin complement pathway plays a key role in complement activation by Paracoccidioides brasiliensis

Paracoccidioides brasiliensis (Pb) is a dimorphic fungal pathogen that causes paracoccidioidomycosis the most severe deep mycosis from South America Although cell mediated immunity is considered the most efficient protective mechanism against Pb infection mechanisms of innate immunity are poorly defined Herein we investigated the interaction of the complement system with high and low virulence isolates of Pb We demonstrated that Pb18 a high virulence Pb Isolate when incubated with normal human serum (NHS) induces consumption of hemolytic complement and when immobilized promotes binding of C4b C3b and C5b-C9 Both low virulence (Pb265) and high virulence (Pb18) isolates consumed C4 C3 and mannose-binding learn (MBL) of MBL-sufficient but not of MBL-deficient serum as revealed by deposition of residual C4 C3 and MBL on immune complexes and mannan However higher complement components consumption was observed with Pb265 as compared with Pb18 The suggested relationship between low virulence and significant complement activation properties of Pb isolates was confirmed by the demonstration that virulence attenuation of Pb 18 results in acquisition of the ability to activate complement Conversely reactivation of attenuated Pb18 results in loss of the ability to activate complement Our results demonstrate for the first time that Pb yeasts activate the complement system by the lectin pathway and there is an Inverse correlation between complement activating ability and Pb virulence These differences could exert an influence on Innate immunity and severity of the disease developed by infected hosts (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

Exact Search Directions for Optimization of Linear and Nonlinear Models Based on Generalized Orthonormal Functions

A novel technique for selecting the poles of orthonormal basis functions (OBF) in Volterra models of any order is presented. It is well-known that the usual large number of parameters required to describe the Volterra kernels can be significantly reduced by representing each kernel using an appropriate basis of orthonormal functions. Such a representation results in the so-called OBF Volterra model, which has a Wiener structure consisting of a linear dynamic generated by the orthonormal basis followed by a nonlinear static mapping given by the Volterra polynomial series. Aiming at optimizing the poles that fully parameterize the orthonormal bases, the exact gradients of the outputs of the orthonormal filters with respect to their poles are computed analytically by using a back-propagation-through-time technique. The expressions relative to the Kautz basis and to generalized orthonormal bases of functions (GOBF) are addressed; the ones related to the Laguerre basis follow straightforwardly as a particular case. The main innovation here is that the dynamic nature of the OBF filters is fully considered in the gradient computations. These gradients provide exact search directions for optimizing the poles of a given orthonormal basis. Such search directions can, in turn, be used as part of an optimization procedure to locate the minimum of a cost-function that takes into account the error of estimation of the system output. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is adopted here as the optimization procedure. Unlike previous related work, the proposed approach relies solely on input-output data measured from the system to be modeled, i.e., no information about the Volterra kernels is required. Examples are presented to illustrate the application of this approach to the modeling of dynamic systems, including a real magnetic levitation system with nonlinear oscillatory behavior.

Reaction-diffusion stochastic lattice model for a predator-prey system

We have the purpose of analyzing the effect of explicit diffusion processes in a predator-prey stochastic lattice model. More precisely we wish to investigate the possible effects due to diffusion upon the thresholds of coexistence of species, i. e., the possible changes in the transition between the active state and the absorbing state devoid of predators. To accomplish this task we have performed time dependent simulations and dynamic mean-field approximations. Our results indicate that the diffusive process can enhance the species coexistence.

Innovation concept for measurement gross error detection and identification in power system state estimation

In this study, the innovation approach is used to estimate the measurement total error associated with power system state estimation. This is required because the power system equations are very much correlated with each other and as a consequence part of the measurements errors is masked. For that purpose an index, innovation index (II), which provides the quantity of new information a measurement contains is proposed. A critical measurement is the limit case of a measurement with low II, it has a zero II index and its error is totally masked. In other words, that measurement does not bring any innovation for the gross error test. Using the II of a measurement, the masked gross error by the state estimation is recovered; then the total gross error of that measurement is composed. Instead of the classical normalised measurement residual amplitude, the corresponding normalised composed measurement residual amplitude is used in the gross error detection and identification test, but with m degrees of freedom. The gross error processing turns out to be very simple to implement, requiring only few adaptations to the existing state estimation software. The IEEE-14 bus system is used to validate the proposed gross error detection and identification test.

STABILITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM ARISING FROM A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR AN ASSET MARKET

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system`s parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders` speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset`s fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However, in the vast majority of the cases present in the literature, these dynamical systems are one-dimensional. Our work is among the few in the area that construct and study analytically a two-dimensional dynamical system and apply it for explanation of socio-economic phenomena.

Design, construction and evaluation of a simple pressurized solvent extraction system

This work describes the construction and testing of a simple pressurized solvent extraction (PSE) system. A mixture of acetone:water (80:20), 80 ºC and 103.5 bar, was used to extract two herbicides (Diuron and Bromacil) from a sample of polluted soil, followed by identification and quantification by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with diode array detector (HPLC-DAD). The system was also used to extract soybean oil (70 ºC and 69 bar) using pentane. The extracted oil was weighed and characterized through the fatty acid methyl ester analysis (myristic (< 0.3%), palmitic (16.3%), stearic (2.8%), oleic (24.5%), linoleic (46.3%), linolenic (9.6%), araquidic (0.3%), gadoleic (< 0.3%), and behenic (0.3%) acids) using high-resolution gas chromatography with flame ionization detection (HRGC-FID). PSE results were compared with those obtained using classical procedures: Soxhlet extraction for the soybean oil and solid-liquid extraction followed by solid-phase extraction (SLE-SPE) for the herbicides. The results showed: 21.25 ± 0.36% (m/m) of oil in the soybeans using the PSE system and 21.55 ± 0.65% (m/m) using the soxhlet extraction system; extraction efficiency (recovery) of herbicides Diuron and Bromacil of 88.7 ± 4.5% and 106.6 ± 8.1%, respectively, using the PSE system, and 96.8 ± 1.0% and 94.2 ± 3.9%, respectively, with the SLP-SPE system; limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) for Diuron of 0.012 mg kg-1 and 0.040 mg kg-1, respectively; LOD and LOQ for Bromacil of 0.025 mg kg-1 and 0.083 mg kg-1, respectively. The linearity used ranged from 0.04 to 1.50 mg L-1 for Diuron and from 0.08 to 1.50 mg L-1 for Bromacil. In conclusion, using the PSE system, due to high pressure and temperature, it is possible to make efficient, fast extractions with reduced solvent consumption in an inert atmosphere, which prevents sample and analyte decomposition.

Fluorescence and reflectance spectroscopy for identification of atherosclerosis in human carotid arteries using principal components analysis

Objectives: The aim of this work was to verify the differentiation between normal and pathological human carotid artery tissues by using fluorescence and reflectance spectroscopy in the 400- to 700-nm range and the spectral characterization by means of principal components analysis. Background Data: Atherosclerosis is the most common and serious pathology of the cardiovascular system. Principal components represent the main spectral characteristics that occur within the spectral data and could be used for tissue classification. Materials and Methods: Sixty postmortem carotid artery fragments (26 non-atherosclerotic and 34 atherosclerotic with non-calcified plaques) were studied. The excitation radiation consisted of a 488-nm argon laser. Two 600-mu m core optical fibers were used, one for excitation and one to collect the fluorescence radiation from the samples. The reflectance system was composed of a halogen lamp coupled to an excitation fiber positioned in one of the ports of an integrating sphere that delivered 5 mW to the sample. The photo-reflectance signal was coupled to a 1/4-m spectrograph via an optical fiber. Euclidean distance was then used to classify each principal component score into one of two classes, normal and atherosclerotic tissue, for both fluorescence and reflectance. Results: The principal components analysis allowed classification of the samples with 81% sensitivity and 88% specificity for fluorescence, and 81% sensitivity and 91% specificity for reflectance. Conclusions: Our results showed that principal components analysis could be applied to differentiate between normal and atherosclerotic tissue with high sensitivity and specificity.

A score system for quality evaluation of RNA sequence tags: an improvement for gene expression profiling

Background: High-throughput molecular approaches for gene expression profiling, such as Serial Analysis of Gene Expression (SAGE), Massively Parallel Signature Sequencing (MPSS) or Sequencing-by-Synthesis (SBS) represent powerful techniques that provide global transcription profiles of different cell types through sequencing of short fragments of transcripts, denominated sequence tags. These techniques have improved our understanding about the relationships between these expression profiles and cellular phenotypes. Despite this, more reliable datasets are still necessary. In this work, we present a web-based tool named S3T: Score System for Sequence Tags, to index sequenced tags in accordance with their reliability. This is made through a series of evaluations based on a defined rule set. S3T allows the identification/selection of tags, considered more reliable for further gene expression analysis. Results: This methodology was applied to a public SAGE dataset. In order to compare data before and after filtering, a hierarchical clustering analysis was performed in samples from the same type of tissue, in distinct biological conditions, using these two datasets. Our results provide evidences suggesting that it is possible to find more congruous clusters after using S3T scoring system. Conclusion: These results substantiate the proposed application to generate more reliable data. This is a significant contribution for determination of global gene expression profiles. The library analysis with S3T is freely available at http://gdm.fmrp.usp.br/s3t/.S3T source code and datasets can also be downloaded from the aforementioned website.

In Vitro Identification of Novel Plasminogen-Binding Receptors of the Pathogen Leptospira interrogans

Background: Leptospirosis is a multisystem disease caused by pathogenic strains of the genus Leptospira. We have reported that Leptospira are able to bind plasminogen (PLG), to generate active plasmin in the presence of activator, and to degrade purified extracellular matrix fibronectin. Methodology/Principal Findings: We have now cloned, expressed and purified 14 leptospiral recombinant proteins. The proteins were confirmed to be surface exposed by immunofluorescence microscopy and were evaluated for their ability to bind plasminogen (PLG). We identified eight as PLG-binding proteins, including the major outer membrane protein LipL32, the previously published rLIC12730, rLIC10494, Lp29, Lp49, LipL40 and MPL36, and one novel leptospiral protein, rLIC12238. Bound PLG could be converted to plasmin by the addition of urokinase-type PLG activator (uPA), showing specific proteolytic activity, as assessed by its reaction with the chromogenic plasmin substrate, D-Val-Leu-Lys 4-nitroanilide dihydrochloride. The addition of the lysine analog 6-aminocaproic acid (ACA) inhibited the protein-PLG interaction, thus strongly suggesting the involvement of lysine residues in plasminogen binding. The binding of leptospiral surface proteins to PLG was specific, dose-dependent and saturable. PLG and collagen type IV competed with LipL32 protein for the same binding site, whereas separate binding sites were observed for plasma fibronectin. Conclusions/Significance: PLG-binding/activation through the proteins/receptors on the surface of Leptospira could help the bacteria to specifically overcome tissue barriers, facilitating its spread throughout the host.

Optical identification of the transient supersoft X-ray source RX J0527.8-6954, in the LMC

Context. Close binary supersoft X-ray sources (CBSS) are binary systems that contain a white dwarf with stable nuclear burning on its surface. These sources, first discovered in the Magellanic Clouds, have high accretion rates and near-Eddington luminosities (10(37)-10(38) erg s(-1)) with high temperatures (T = 2-7 x 10(5) K). Aims. The total number of known objects in the MC is still small and, in our galaxy, even smaller. We observed the field of the unidentified transient supersoft X-ray source RX J0527.8-6954 in order to identify its optical counterpart. Methods. The observation was made with the IFU-GMOS on the Gemini South telescope with the purpose of identifying stars with possible He II or Balmer emission or else of observing nebular extended jets or ionization cones, features that may be expected in CBSS. Results. The X-ray source is identified with a B5e V star that is associated with subarcsecond extended H alpha emission, possibly bipolar. Conclusions. If the primary star is a white dwarf, as suggested by the supersoft X-ray spectrum, the expected orbital period exceeds 21 h; therefore, we believe that the 9.4 h period found so far is not associated to this system.

Identification and Characterization of Ixodes scapularis Antigens That Elicit Tick Immunity Using Yeast Surface Display

Repeated exposure of rabbits and other animals to ticks results in acquired resistance or immunity to subsequent tick bites and is partially elicited by antibodies directed against tick antigens. In this study we demonstrate the utility of a yeast surface display approach to identify tick salivary antigens that react with tick-immune serum. We constructed an Ixodes scapularis nymphal salivary gland yeast surface display library and screened the library with nymph-immune rabbit sera and identified five salivary antigens. Four of these proteins, designated P8, P19, P23 and P32, had a predicted signal sequence. We generated recombinant (r) P8, P19 and P23 in a Drosophila expression system for functional and immunization studies. rP8 showed anti-complement activity and rP23 demonstrated anti-coagulant activity. Ixodes scapularis feeding was significantly impaired when nymphs were fed on rabbits immunized with a cocktail of rP8, rP19 and rP23, a hall mark of tick-immunity. These studies also suggest that these antigens may serve as potential vaccine candidates to thwart tick feeding.

Periodic-orbit analysis and scaling laws of intermingled basins of attraction in an ecological dynamical system

Chaotic dynamical systems with two or more attractors lying on invariant subspaces may, provided certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled, exhibit intermingled basins of attraction: Each basin is riddled with holes belonging to basins of the other attractors. In order to investigate the occurrence of such phenomenon in dynamical systems of ecological interest (two-species competition with extinction) we have characterized quantitatively the intermingled basins using periodic-orbit theory and scaling laws. The latter results agree with a theoretical prediction from a stochastic model, and also with an exact result for the scaling exponent we derived for the specific class of models investigated. We discuss the consequences of the scaling laws in terms of the predictability of a final state (extinction of either species) in an ecological experiment.