Skovgaard`s adjustment to likelihood ratio tests in exponential family nonlinear models

Likelihood ratio tests can be substantially size distorted in small- and moderate-sized samples. In this paper, we apply Skovgaard`s [Skovgaard, I.M., 2001. Likelihood asymptotics. Scandinavian journal of Statistics 28, 3-321] adjusted likelihood ratio statistic to exponential family nonlinear models. We show that the adjustment term has a simple compact form that can be easily implemented from standard statistical software. The adjusted statistic is approximately distributed as X(2) with high degree of accuracy. It is applicable in wide generality since it allows both the parameter of interest and the nuisance parameter to be vector-valued. Unlike the modified profile likelihood ratio statistic obtained from Cox and Reid [Cox, D.R., Reid, N., 1987. Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference. journal of the Royal Statistical Society B49, 1-39], the adjusted statistic proposed here does not require an orthogonal parameterization. Numerical comparison of likelihood-based tests of varying dispersion favors the test we propose and a Bartlett-corrected version of the modified profile likelihood ratio test recently obtained by Cysneiros and Ferrari [Cysneiros, A.H.M.A., Ferrari, S.L.P., 2006. An improved likelihood ratio test for varying dispersion in exponential family nonlinear models. Statistics and Probability Letters 76 (3), 255-265]. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing influence in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates

Diagnostic methods have been an important tool in regression analysis to detect anomalies, such as departures from error assumptions and the presence of outliers and influential observations with the fitted models. Assuming censored data, we considered a classical analysis and Bayesian analysis assuming no informative priors for the parameters of the model with a cure fraction. A Bayesian approach was considered by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods with Metropolis-Hasting algorithms steps to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. Some influence methods, such as the local influence, total local influence of an individual, local influence on predictions and generalized leverage were derived, analyzed and discussed in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates. The relevance of the approach was illustrated with a real data set, where it is shown that, by removing the most influential observations, the decision about which model best fits the data is changed.

A note on the likelihood and moments of the skew-normal distribution

In this paper an alternative approach to the one in Henze (1986) is proposed for deriving the odd moments of the skew-normal distribution considered in Azzalini (1985). The approach is based on a Pascal type triangle, which seems to greatly simplify moments computation. Moreover, it is shown that the likelihood equation for estimating the asymmetry parameter in such model is generated as orthogonal functions to the sample vector. As a consequence, conditions for a unique solution of the likelihood equation are established, which seem to hold in more general setting.

Missing data mechanisms and their implications on the analysis of categorical data

We review some issues related to the implications of different missing data mechanisms on statistical inference for contingency tables and consider simulation studies to compare the results obtained under such models to those where the units with missing data are disregarded. We confirm that although, in general, analyses under the correct missing at random and missing completely at random models are more efficient even for small sample sizes, there are exceptions where they may not improve the results obtained by ignoring the partially classified data. We show that under the missing not at random (MNAR) model, estimates on the boundary of the parameter space as well as lack of identifiability of the parameters of saturated models may be associated with undesirable asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests; even in standard cases the bias of the estimators may be low only for very large samples. We also show that the probability of a boundary solution obtained under the correct MNAR model may be large even for large samples and that, consequently, we may not always conclude that a MNAR model is misspecified because the estimate is on the boundary of the parameter space.

Recalled and recorded bowel habits confirm early onset and high frequency of constipation in day-care nursery children

CONTEXT: Mothers recall early-onset constipation in children attending gastroenterology clinics. OBJECTIVES: To study the bowel habit of young children in the community to determine, first, whether early-onset constipation is confirmed in this setting and, second, the agreement between recalled and recorded bowel habit. METHODS:Defecation data of 57 children aged 6.0-40.7 mo were obtained by maternal recall (questionnaire on predominant stool characteristics) and by record (1,934 defecations registered prospectively at home and in the nursery). The bowel habit was classified according to stool frequency and proportion of stool characteristics (soft, hard and/or runny). Two criteria were used to classify recorded data, since the cutoff point for hard stools to identify constipation is undefined in children: predominant criterion and adult criterion, respectively with >50% and >25% of stools with altered consistency. Bowel habit categories were: adequate, constipation, functional diarrhea and "other bowel habit". Nonparametric statistics, and the Kappa index for agreement between recalled and recorded bowel habit, were used. RESULTS: Constipation occurred in 17.5%, 10.5%, 19.3% of the children by recall, the predominant and the adult criteria, respectively. Constipation was the main recalled alteration, vs 12.3% "other bowel habit". Only one child classified as having functional diarrhea (by the adult criterion). Agreement between recalled and recorded bowel habit was fair for constipation, by the predominant and the adult criteria (K = 0.28 and 0.24, respectively), but only slight (K <0.16) for other bowel habit categories. Individual data, however, pointed to a better relationship between recalled constipation and the adult rather than the predominant criterion. CONCLUSIONS: Frequent early-onset constipation was confirmed. Fair agreement between recalled and recorded constipation by the two used criteria indicates that recalled data are quite reliable to detect constipation.

Recent trends in maternal, newborn, and child health in Brazil: progress toward Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5

We analyzed Brazil's efforts in reducing child mortality, improving maternal and child health, and reducing socioeconomic and regional inequalities from 1990 through 2007. We compiled and reanalyzed data from several sources, including vital statistics and population-based surveys. We also explored the roles of broad socioeconomic and demographic changes and the introduction of health sector and other reform measures in explaining the improvements observed. Our findings provide compelling evidence that proactive measures to reduce health disparities accompanied by socioeconomic progress can result in measurable improvements in the health of children and mothers in a relatively short interval. Our analysis of Brazil's successes and remaining challenges to reach and surpass Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 can provide important lessons for other low- and middle-income countries

Prevalence, magnitude, and methods of rapid weight loss among judo competitors

ARTIOLI, G. G., B. GUALANO, E. FRANCHINI, F. B. SCAGLIUSI, M. TAKESIAN, M. FUCHS, and A. H. LANCHA. Prevalence, Magnitude, and Methods of Rapid Weight Loss among Judo Competitors. Med. Sci. Sports Exerc., Vol. 42, No. 3, pp. 436-442, 2010. Purpose: To identify the prevalence, magnitude, and methods of rapid weight loss among judo competitors. Methods: Athletes (607 males and 215 females; age = 19.3 +/- 5.3 yr, weight = 70 +/- 7.5 kg, height = 170.6 +/- 9.8 cm) completed a previously validated questionnaire developed to evaluate rapid weight loss in judo athletes, which provides a score. The higher the score obtained, the more aggressive the weight loss behaviors. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and frequency analyses. Mean scores obtained in the questionnaire were used to compare specific groups of athletes using, when appropriate, Mann-Whitney U-test or general linear model one-way ANOVA followed by Tamhane post hoc test. Results: Eighty-six percent of athletes reported that have already lost weight to compete. When heavyweights are excluded, this percentage rises to 89%. Most athletes reported reductions of up to 5% of body weight (mean +/- SD: 2.5 +/- 2.3%). The most weight ever lost was 2%-5%, whereas a great part of athletes reported reductions of 5%-10% (mean +/- SD: 6 +/- 4%). The number of reductions underwent in a season was 3 +/- 5. The reductions usually occurred within 7 +/- 7 d. Athletes began cutting weight at 12.6 +/- 6.1 yr. No significant differences were found in the score obtained by male versus female athletes as well as by athletes from different weight classes. Elite athletes scored significantly higher in the questionnaire than nonelite. Athletes who began cutting weight earlier also scored higher than those who began later. Conclusions: Rapid weight loss is highly prevalent in judo competitors. The level of aggressiveness in weight management behaviors seems to not be influenced by the gender or by the weight class, but it seems to be influenced by competitive level and by the age at which athletes began cutting weight.

Academic papers about fight, martial arts and combat sports

The present study had as objective to verify the production of fight, martial arts and combat sports in articles published in the main Physical Education academic journals available in Brazil after the establishment of the CONFEF, as well as analyze the subjects studied in these articles. The subject classification followed Tani (1996)`s proposition concerning an academic structure to Kinesiology, Physical Education and Sport. When considering the 2561 articles published on these journals only 75 (2.93%) were related to Fight/Martial Arts/Combat Sports. It was verified a predominance of studies conducted in the Biodynamic area (40%), followed by Human Movement Socio-cultural Studies (32%) and Motor Behavior (8%). The applied studies were divided as: Human Movement Pedagogy (10.7%), Sports Training (8%), Sports Administration (1.3%) and Adapted Human Movement (none study published). These data indicate: (1) a reduced number of publications concerning these activities, especially those of applied nature; (2) a need to promote inter and multidisciplinary research about this subject.

The beta modified Weibull distribution

A five-parameter distribution so-called the beta modified Weibull distribution is defined and studied. The new distribution contains, as special submodels, several important distributions discussed in the literature, such as the generalized modified Weibull, beta Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, beta exponential, modified Weibull and Weibull distributions, among others. The new distribution can be used effectively in the analysis of survival data since it accommodates monotone, unimodal and bathtub-shaped hazard functions. We derive the moments and examine the order statistics and their moments. We propose the method of maximum likelihood for estimating the model parameters and obtain the observed information matrix. A real data set is used to illustrate the importance and flexibility of the new distribution.

The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data

A four-parameter extension of the generalized gamma distribution capable of modelling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma and generalized Rayleigh, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. We calculate the density of the order statistics and two expansions for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters and the observed information matrix is obtained. Finally, a real data set from the medical area is analysed.

Renal Cell Carcinoma: T1 and T2 Signal Intensity Characteristics of Papillary and Clear Cell Types Correlated with Pathology

OBJECTIVE. The objective of our study was to describe the T1 and T2 signal intensity characteristics of papillary renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and clear cell RCC with pathologic correlation. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Of 539 RCCs, 49 tumors (21 papillary RCCs and 28 clear cell RCCs) in 45 patients were examined with MRI. Two radiologists retrospectively and independently assessed each tumor`s T1 and T2 signal intensity qualitatively and quantitatively (i.e., the signal intensity [SI] ratio [tumor SI/renal cortex SI]). Of the 49 tumors, 37 (76%) were assessed for pathology features including tumor architecture and the presence of hemosiderin, ferritin, necrosis, and fibrosis. MRI findings and pathology features were correlated. Statistical methods included summary statistics and Wilcoxon`s rank sum test for signal intensity, contingency tables for assessing reader agreement, concordance rate between the two readers with 95% CIs, and Fisher`s exact test for independence, all stratified by RCC type. RESULTS. Papillary RCCs and clear cell RCCs had a similar appearance and signal intensity ratio on T1-weighted images. On T2-weighted images, most papillary RCCs were hypointense (reader 1, 13/21; reader 2, 14/21), with an average mean signal intensity ratio for both readers of 0.67 +/- 0.2, and none was hyperintense, whereas most clear cell RCCs were hyperintense (reader 1, 21/28; reader 2, 17/28), with an average mean signal intensity ratio for both readers of 1.41 +/- 0.4 (p < 0.05). A tumor T2 signal intensity ratio of <= 0.66 had a specificity of 100% and sensitivity of 54% for papillary RCC. Most T2 hypointense tumors exhibited predominant papillary architecture; most T2 hyperintense tumors had a predominant nested architecture (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION. On T2-weighted images, most papillary RCCs are hypointense and clear cell RCCs, hyperintense. The T2 hypointense appearance of papillary RCCs correlated with a predominant papillary architecture at pathology.

Metabolic differences between male and female adolescents with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, as detected by ultrasound

Background: Age, developmental stage and gender are risk factors for paediatric non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Aims: The aim of this study was to identify differences in clinical or laboratory variables between sexes in adolescents with NAFLD. Methodology: Ninety obese adolescents including 36 males and 54 females were evaluated. Inclusion criteria for this study were a Body Mass Index above the 95th percentile, as set forth by the National Center for Health Statistics, and an age of 10-19 years. A clinical and laboratory evaluation was conducted for all adolescents. Results: The variables that were found to be predictive of NAFLD in adolescence were visceral fat, Aminotransferase, Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase, triglyderides, cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol. We also observed that cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol variables were influenced by gender, i.e. there was a significant statistical difference in the values of these variables between male and female adolescents. With regard to cholesterol serum concentrations, the risk was 6.99 times greater for females, compared with 1.2 times for males; and for LDL-cholesterol serum concentrations the risk was 8.15 times greater for females, compared with and 1.26 times for males. Conclusion: Female adolescents with NAFLD showed a significantly different metabolic behaviour than males.

SPINAL POSTURAL ALIGNMENT VARIANCE ACCORDING TO SEX AND AGE IN 7-AND 8-YEAR-OLD CHILDREN

Purpose: Children`s postural alignment undergoes many adjustments due to the changes in body proportions during the stages of growth. The objective of this study was to quantitatively characterize and analyze spinal postural standards in 7- and 8-year-old children to verify which of the differences found were correlated to age and sex. Methods: Two hundred thirty public school students (Amparo, Sao Paulo, Brazil) aged 7 to 8 years were divided into groups according to postural alignment, which were further subdivided by sex and age, for comparison. Digital photos of upright Subjects were analyzed to evaluate posture. Lumbar and thoracic curvature, pelvic inclination, head posture, and lateral spine deviation were measured using CorelDraw (Ottawa, Canada) software guidelines and bone landmarks. Descriptive statistics and analysis of variance data analysis were utilized to verify differences among the groups. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Results: Mean values for the variables analyzed were calculated. For lumbar lordosis, 7-year-old boys showed 38.49 degrees +/- 15.32 degrees in comparison to all other groups (42.29 degrees +/- 7.13 degrees). For thoracic kyphosis, the 7-year-old children presented 28.07 degrees +/- 7.73 degrees. and the 8-year-olds 30.32 degrees +/- 7.73 degrees. Pelvic inclination presented a mean value of 15.82 degrees +/- 5.46 degrees and single lateral spine deviation mean value of 3.48 degrees +/- 2.12 degrees. Conclusion: For the sample studied, differences based on sex and age were found for some of the body segments analyzed. The values found in this study may contribute to improved physiotherapeutic treatment when associated with other aspects of the clinical assessment and symptomatology. (J Manipulative Physiol Ther 2009;32: 154-159)

Risk Score to Predict the Outcome of Patients with Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis

Background: Around 15% of patients die or become dependent after cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis (CVT). Method: We used the International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis (ISCVT) sample (624 patients, with a median follow-up time of 478 days) to develop a Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict outcome, dichotomised by a modified Rankin Scale score > 2. From the model hazard ratios, a risk score was derived and a cut-off point selected. The model and the score were tested in 2 validation samples: (1) the prospective Cerebral Venous Thrombosis Portuguese Collaborative Study Group (VENO-PORT) sample with 91 patients; (2) a sample of 169 consecutive CVT patients admitted to 5 ISCVT centres after the end of the ISCVT recruitment period. Sensitivity, specificity, c statistics and overall efficiency to predict outcome at 6 months were calculated. Results: The model (hazard ratios: malignancy 4.53; coma 4.19; thrombosis of the deep venous system 3.03; mental status disturbance 2.18; male gender 1.60; intracranial haemorrhage 1.42) had overall efficiencies of 85.1, 84.4 and 90.0%, in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Using the risk score (range from 0 to 9) with a cut-off of 6 3 points, overall efficiency was 85.4, 84.4 and 90.1% in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity in the combined samples were 96.1 and 13.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The CVT risk score has a good estimated overall rate of correct classifications in both validation samples, but its specificity is low. It can be used to avoid unnecessary or dangerous interventions in low-risk patients, and may help to identify high-risk CVT patients. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Validation of the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, Modified Rankin Scale and Barthel Index in Brazil: The Role of Cultural Adaptation and Structured Interviewing

Background: We aimed to validate three widely used scales in stroke research in a multiethnic Brazilian population. Methods: The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and Barthel Index (BI) were translated, culturally adapted and applied by two independent investigators. The mRS was applied with or without a previously validated structured interview. Interobserver agreement (kappa statistics) and intraclass correlation coefficients were calculated. Results: 84 patients underwent mRS (56 with and 28 without a structured interview), 57 BI and 62 NIHSS scoring. Intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.902 for NIHSS and 0.967 for BI. For BI, interobserver agreement was good (kappa = 0.70). For mRS, the structured interview improved interobserver agreement (kappa = 0.34 without a structured interview; 0.75 with a structured interview). Conclusion: The NIHSS, BI and mRS show good validity when translated and culturally adapted. Using a structured interview for the mRS improves interobserver concordance rates. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel