Microscopic origin of non-Gaussian distributions of financial returns

In this paper we study the possible microscopic origin of heavy-tailed probability density distributions for the price variation of financial instruments. We extend the standard log-normal process to include another random component in the so-called stochastic volatility models. We study these models under an assumption, akin to the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, in which the volatility has already relaxed to its equilibrium distribution and acts as a background to the evolution of the price process. In this approximation, we show that all models of stochastic volatility should exhibit a scaling relation in the time lag of zero-drift modified log-returns. We verify that the Dow-Jones Industrial Average index indeed follows this scaling. We then focus on two popular stochastic volatility models, the Heston and Hull-White models. In particular, we show that in the Hull-White model the resulting probability distribution of log-returns in this approximation corresponds to the Tsallis (t-Student) distribution. The Tsallis parameters are given in terms of the microscopic stochastic volatility model. Finally, we show that the log-returns for 30 years Dow Jones index data is well fitted by a Tsallis distribution, obtaining the relevant parameters. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phlebotomines (Diptera, Psychodidae) in the Ribeira Valley Speleological Province - 1. Parque Estadual Intervales, state of São Paulo, Brazil

The identification of the sandfly fauna and investigation of some ecological aspects of its populations in areas frequented by tourists of the PEI, an Atlantic forest reserve with many caves, were the objective of this study. Captures were undertaken monthly from January 2001 to December 2002, with automatic light traps installed in 13 ecotopes, including caves, forests, domiciliary and peridomiciliary environments, and by aspiration in armadillo burrows. Additionally, although not at regular intervals, Shannon traps were installed in forests and anthropic environments, aspirations were made on cave walls, among roots and fallen leaves, and some insects were captured while biting researchers. A total of 891 sandflies belonging to 21 species were captured. Six hundred specimens representing 19 species were captured with light traps, 215 in anthropic (2.24 insects/trap) and 385 in extra-domiciliary (1.46 insects/trap) environments. Brumptomyia troglodytes was the most abundant species (the Standardised Index of Species Abundance = 0.705). Pintomyia monticola predominated in the Shannon traps and showed anthropophilic and diurnal activity. Psathyromyia pascalei predominated in the aspirations; the largest number being in armadillo burrows. Eleven species were captured in caves; although some might be troglophiles, the majority used these ecotopes as resting places. Nyssomyia intermedia, Nyssomyia neivai and Migonemyia migonei, implicated in the transmission of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Southeastern Brazilian region, were all found, though in such low densities as to suggest minimal risk of the disease in the PEI.

Tendência da incidência e da mortalidade por Aids em mulheres na transição menopausal e pós-menopausa no Brasil, 1996-2005

Objetivo: Descrever a incidência e a mortalidade por Aids no Brasil e mulheres na fase menopausal e pós-menopausa. Métodos: Estudo retrospectivo de 1996 a 2005, utilizando dados secundários do Sistema de Informações de Saúde do DATASUS - Ministério da Saúde. Buscou-se por população residente em dados "Demográficos e Socioeconômicos, incidência no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) e mortalidade no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM). Os coeficientes específicos de incidência e de mortalidade por Aids/100.000 mulheres foram calculados para cada década da faixa etária de 30 a 69 anos (30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69), pois inclui a população de interesse; isto é, mulheres na transição menopausal e pós-menopausa, dos 35 aos 65 anos, Resultados: Houve aumento da incidência de Aids entre os anos de 1996 e 1998, a partir daí, observa-se tendência à ligeira queda até 2000 e posterior incremento até 2004. Em 2005, o coeficiente retorna a valores próximos dos encontrados em 1997. A mortalidade apresentou queda em todas as faixas etárias nos anos de 1996 e 1997, a partir de então, os coeficientes mantêm-se praticamente estáveis até 1999, exceto na faixa etária de 30 a 39 anos que continua estável até 2005. Já entre mulheres acima de 40 anos, o coeficiente de mortalidade apresentou aumento entre os anos 1999 a 2005. conclusão: Houve aumento no número de casos novos de Aids entre mulheres acima de 30 anos e o mesmo processo se repetiu com relação à mortalidade. O aumento e "envelhecimento" da epidemia entre brasileiras, sinalizam que medidas de promoção à saúde, prevenção da doença, diagnóstico precoce e tratamento efetivo devem ser oferecidos de maneira apropriada às mulheres de 30 a 69 anos, considerando as características pessoais, o contexto familiar e o papel social do sexo feminino nestas idades

Opportunity for catch-up HPV vaccination in young women after first delivery

Background Early age at first delivery has been identified as a risk factor for high-risk HPV-type infection and cervical cancer development. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out in a large public maternity hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. During June 2006 to February 2007, 301 women aged 15-24 years who gave birth to their first child were recruited between 43 and 60 days after delivery. Detection of HPV DNA in cervical specimens was performed using a standardised PCR protocol with PGMY09/11 primers. The association of selected factors with HPV infection was assessed by using a Generalised Linear Model. Results HPV DNA was detected in 58.5% (95% CI 52.7% to 64.0%) of the enrolled young women. The most common types of HPV found were: HPV16, HPV51, HPV52, HPV58 and HPV71. The overall prevalence of HPV types targeted by the HPV prophylactic vaccines was: HPV 16-12.0%, HPV 18-2.3% and HPV 6 and 11 4.3%. In the multivariate analysis, only age (inversely, p for trend=0.02) and smoking habits were independently associated with HPV infection. Conclusions The findings show that these young primiparous women had high cervical HPV prevalence, suggesting that this is a high-risk group for cervical cancer development. Nevertheless, 17.3% were positive for any of the four HPV types included in HPV vaccines (HPV6, 11, 16 or 18), with 13.3% positive for HPV 16 or 18 and only 1.0% having both vaccine related-oncogenic HPV types. Thus, young primiparous women could benefit from catch-up HPV vaccination programmes.

Recurrence quantification analysis of turbulent fluctuations in the plasma edge of Tokamak Chauffage Alfveacuten Breacutesilien tokamak

Recurrences are close returns of a given state in a time series, and can be used to identify different dynamical regimes and other related phenomena, being particularly suited for analyzing experimental data. In this work, we use recurrence quantification analysis to investigate dynamical patterns in scalar data series obtained from measurements of floating potential and ion saturation current at the plasma edge of the Tokamak Chauffage Alfveacuten Breacutesilien [R. M. O. Galva approximate to o , Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 43, 1181 (2001)]. We consider plasma discharges with and without the application of radial electric bias, and also with two different regimes of current ramp. Our results indicate that biasing improves confinement through destroying highly recurrent regions within the plasma column that enhance particle and heat transport.

Dynamical estimates of chaotic systems from Poincare recurrences

We show a function that fits well the probability density of return times between two consecutive visits of a chaotic trajectory to finite size regions in phase space. It deviates from the exponential statistics by a small power-law term, a term that represents the deterministic manifestation of the dynamics. We also show how one can quickly and easily estimate the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and the short-term correlation function by realizing observations of high probable returns. Our analyses are performed numerically in the Henon map and experimentally in a Chua's circuit. Finally, we discuss how our approach can be used to treat the data coming from experimental complex systems and for technological applications. (C) 2009 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3263943]

Nanogravimetric and voltammetric studies of a Pt-Rh alloy surface and its behavior for methanol oxidation

This paper describes the preparation of a Pt-Rh alloy surface electrodeposited on Pt electrodes and its electrocatalytic characterization for methanol oxidation. The X-ray photoelectronic spectroscopy ( XPS) results demonstrate that the surface composition is approximately 24 at-% Rh and 76 % Pt. The cyclic voltammetry (CV) and electrochemical quartz crystal (EQCN) results for the alloy were associated, for platinum, to the well known profile in acidic medium. For Rh, on the alloy, the generation of rhodium hydroxide species (Rh(OH)(3) and RhO(OH)(3)) was measured. During the successive oxidation-reduction cycles the mass returns to its original value, indicating the reversibility of the processes. It was not observed rhodium dissolution during the cycling. The 76/24 at % Pt-Rh alloy presented singular electrocatalytic activity for methanol electrooxidation, which started at more negative potentials compared to pure Pt (70 mV). During the sweep towards more negative potentials, there is only weak CO re-adsorption on both Rh and Pt-Rh alloy surfaces, which can be explained by considering the interaction energy between Rh and CO.

Characterization of electrical penetration graphs of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri, in sweet orange seedlings

Detailed information on probing behavior of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), is critical for understanding the transmission process of phloem-limited bacteria (Candidatus Liberibacter spp.) associated with citrus `huanglongbing` by this vector. In this study, we investigated stylet penetration activities of D. citri on seedlings of Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck cv. Pera (Rutaceae) by using the electrical penetration graph (EPG-DC system) technique. EPG waveforms were described based on amplitude, frequency, voltage level, and electrical origin of the observed traces during stylet penetration into plant tissues. The main waveforms were correlated with histological observations of salivary sheath termini in plant tissues, to determine the putative location of stylet tips. The behavioral activities were also inferred based on waveform similarities in relation to other Sternorrhyncha, particularly aphids and whiteflies. In addition, we correlated the occurrence of specific waveforms with the acquisition of the phloem-limited bacterium Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus by D. citri. The occurrence of a G-like xylem sap ingestion waveform in starved and unstarved psyllids was also compared. By analyzing 8-h EPGs of adult females, five waveforms were described: (C) salivary sheath secretion and other stylet pathway activities; (D) first contact with phloem (distinct from other waveforms reported for Sternorrhyncha); (E1) putative salivation in phloem sieve tubes; (E2) phloem sap ingestion; and (G) probably xylem sap ingestion. Diaphorina citri initiates a probe with stylet pathway through epidermis and parenchyma (C). Interestingly, no potential drops were observed during the stylet pathway phase, as are usually recorded in aphids and other Sternorrhyncha. Once in C, D. citri shows a higher propensity to return to non-probing than to start a phloem or xylem phase. Several probes are usually observed before the phloem phase; waveform D is observed upon phloem contact, always immediately followed by E1. After E1, D. citri either returns to pathway activity (C) or starts phloem sap ingestion, which was the longest activity observed.

Bioactive compounds and antioxidant capacities of 18 non-traditional tropical fruits from Brazil

The bioactive compounds and antioxidant capacities of polyphenolic extracts of 18 fresh and dry native non-traditional fruits from Brazil were determined using ABTS, DDPH, FRAP and beta-carotene bleaching methods. The study provides an adaptation of these methods, along with an evaluation of the compounds related to antioxidant potential. The results show promising perspectives for the exploitation of non-traditional tropical fruit species with considerable levels of nutrients and antioxidant capacity. Although evaluation methods and results reported have not yet been sufficiently standardised, making comparisons difficult, our data add valuable information to current knowledge of the nutritional properties of tropical fruits, such as the considerable antioxidant capacity found for acerola - Malpighia emarginata and camu-camu - Myrciaria dubia (ABTS, DPPH and FRAP) and for puca-preto - Mouriri pusa (all methods). (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neighborhood and Efficiency in Manufacturing in Brazilian Regions: A Spatial Markov Chain Analysis

This paper analyzes the geography of regional competitiveness in manufacturing in Brazil. The authors estimate stochastic frontiers to calculate regional efficiency of representative firms in 137 regions in the period 2000-2006, in four sectors defined by technological intensity. The efficiency results are analyzed using Markov Spatial Transition Matrices to provide insights into the transition of regions between efficiency levels, considering their local spatial context. The results indicate that geography plays an important role in manufacturing competitiveness. In particular, regions with more competitive neighbors are more likely to improve their relative efficiency (pull effect) over time, and regions with less competitive neighbors are more likely to lose relative efficiency (drag effect). The authors find that the pull effect is stronger than the drag effect.

Import substitution and economic growth

Despite Latin America`s dismal performance between the 1950s and 1980s, the region experienced strong capital deepening. We suggest that these facts can be explained as a consequence of the restrictive trade regime adopted at that time. Our framework is based on a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model, with scale economies in the capital-intensive sector. Initially, the economy is open and produces only the labor-intensive good. The trade regime is modeled as a move to a closed economy. The model produces results consistent with the Latin American experience. Specifically, a Sufficiently small Country experiences no long-run income growth, but an increase in capital. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial aspects of trade liberalization in Colombia: A general equilibrium approach

This paper offers some preliminary steps in the marriage of some of the theoretical foundations of new economic geography with spatial computable general equilibrium models. Modelling the spatial economy of Colombia using the traditional assumptions of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models makes little sense when one territorial unit, Bogota, accounts for over one quarter of GDP and where transportation costs are high and accessibility low compared to European or North American standards. Hence, handling market imperfections becomes imperative as does the need to address internal spatial issues from the perspective of Colombia`s increasing involvement with external markets. The paper builds on the Centro de Estudios de Economia Regional (CEER) model, a spatial CGE model of the Colombian economy; non-constant returns and non-iceberg transportation costs are introduced and some simulation exercises carried out. The results confirm the asymmetric impacts that trade liberalization has on a spatial economy in which one region, Bogota, is able to more fully exploit scale economies vis--vis the rest of Colombia. The analysis also reveals the importance of different hypotheses on factor mobility and the role of price effects to better understand the consequences of trade opening in a developing economy.

The structure of worker compensation in Brazil, with a comparison to France and the United States

We employ comprehensive linked employer-employee data for Brazil to analyze wage determinants and compare results to Abowd et al. (2001) for French and U.S. manufacturing. While returns to human capita in Brazilian manufacturing exceed those of the other countries, occupation and gender differentials are similar. The worker-characteristics component accounts for much of the greater wage inequality in Brazil, but the establishment-fixed component has scant explanatory power. Thus, firm-or industry-level factors offer little scope for explaining the differences in wage inequality. Brazil`s wage structure resembles that of France, a country with some similarity in labor market institutions.

ICT AND PRODUCTIVITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: NEW FIRM-LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL AND INDIA

This paper uses a unique new data set on manufacturing firms in Brazil and India to estimate production functions, augmented by information and communications technology (ICT). We find a strong positive association between ICT capital and productivity in both countries that is robust to several different specification tests. The paper also breaks new ground when using the Indian data to investigate the effect of the institutional and policy environment on ICT capital investment and productivity. We find that poorer infrastructure quality and labor market policy are associated with lower levels of ICT adoption, while poorer infrastructure is also associated with lower returns to investment.

Biomechanical analysis of sutures used for mesh fixation in the donor area after removal of the rectus abdominis muscle

Background: The use of synthetic mesh for abdominal wall closure after removal of the rectus abdominis is established but not standardised. This study compares two forms of mesh fixation: a simple suture, which fixes the mesh to the edges of the defect on the anterior rectus abdominis fascia; and total fixation, which incorporates the fasciae of the internal oblique, external oblique and transverse muscles in the suture, anchoring the mesh in the position of the removed muscle. Method: A total of 16 fresh cadavers were dissected. Two sutures were compared: simple and total. Three different sites were analysed: 5 cm above, 5 cm below and at the level of the umbilicus. The two sutures compared were tested in each region using a standardised technique. All sutures were performed with nylon 0, perpendicular to the linea alba. Each suture was secured to a dynamometer, which was pulled perpendicularly towards the midline until the rupture of the aponeurosis. `Rupture resistance` was measured in kilogram force. The mean among the groups was compared using the paired Student`s t-test to a significance level of 1% (p < 0.01). Results: The mean rupture resistance of the total suture was 160% higher than that of the simple suture. Conclusion: The total suture includes the external oblique, internal oblique and transverse fasciae, which are multi-directional, and creates a much higher resistance when compared with the simple suture. Total suture may reduce the incidence of bulging and hernias of the abdominal wall after harvesting the rectus abdominis muscle, but comparative clinical studies are necessary. (C) 2010 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.