The impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation phases on off-season maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil

In recent years, maize has become one of the main alternative crops for the autumn winter growing season in the central-western and southeastern regions of Brazil. However, water deficits, sub-optimal temperatures and low solar radiation levels are common problems that are experienced during this growing season by local farmers. One methodology to assess the impact of variable weather conditions on crop production is the use of crop simulation models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate variability on maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil. Specific objectives for this study were (1) to analyse the effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation and air temperature for four locations in the state of Sao Paulo and (2) to analyse the impact of ENSO on maize grown off-season for the same four locations using a crop simulation model. For each site, historical weather data were categorised as belonging to one of three phases of ENSO: El Nino (warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific), La Nina (cool sea surface temperature anomalies) or neutral, based on an index derived from observed sea surface temperature anomalies. During El Nino, there is a tendency for an increase in the rainfall amount during May for the four selected locations, and also during April, mainly in three of the locations, resulting in an increase in simulated maize yield planted between February 15 and March 15. In general, there was a decrease in the simulated yield for maize grown off-season during neutral years. This study showed how a crop model can be used to assess the impact of climate variability on the yield of maize grown off-season in a subtropical region of Brazil. The outcomes of this study can be very useful for both policy makers and local farmers for agricultural planning and decision making. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil modulated by interannual and interdecadal variability

The frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil is impacted by Ell Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, especially in austral spring. There are two areas in which this impact is more significant: one is on the coast, where extreme events are more frequent during El Nino (EN) and the other one extends inland, where extreme events increase during EN and decrease during La Nina (LN). Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with severe rainfall in those areas are similar (opposite) to anomalous patterns characteristic of EN (LN) episodes, indicating why increase (decrease) of extreme events in EN (LN) episodes is favoured. The most recurrent precipitation patterns during extreme rainfall events in each of these areas are disclosed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and evidence the separation between extreme events in these areas: a severe precipitation event generally does not occur simultaneously in the coast and inland, although they may Occur inland and in the coastal region in sequence. Although EN predominantly enhances extreme rainfall, there are EN years in which fewer severe events occur than the average of neutral years, and also the enhancement of extreme rainfall is not uniform for different EN episodes, because the interdecadal non-ENSO variability also modulates significantly the frequency of extreme events in Southern Brazil. The inland region, which is more affected, shows increase (decrease) of extreme rainfall in association with the negative (positive) phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, with the negative (positive) phase of the Pacific Multidecadal Variability and with the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific Interdecadal Variability. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

First Description of a Cluster of Acute/Subacute Paracoccidioidomycosis Cases and Its Association with a Climatic Anomaly

Background: Identifying clusters of acute paracoccidioidomycosis cases could potentially help in identifying the environmental factors that influence the incidence of this mycosis. However, unlike other endemic mycoses, there are no published reports of clusters of paracoccidioidomycosis. Methodology/Principal Findings: A retrospective cluster detection test was applied to verify if an excess of acute form (AF) paracoccidioidomycosis cases in time and/or space occurred in Botucatu, an endemic area in Sao Paulo State. The scan-test SaTScan v7.0.3 was set to find clusters for the maximum temporal period of 1 year. The temporal test indicated a significant cluster in 1985 (P<0.005). This cluster comprised 10 cases, although 2.19 were expected for this year in this area. Age and clinical presentation of these cases were typical of AF paracccidioidomycosis. The space-time test confirmed the temporal cluster in 1985 and showed the localities where the risk was higher in that year. The cluster suggests that some particularities took place in the antecedent years in those localities. Analysis of climate variables showed that soil water storage was atypically high in 1982/83 (similar to 2.11/2.5 SD above mean), and the absolute air humidity in 1984, the year preceding the cluster, was much higher than normal (similar to 1.6 SD above mean), conditions that may have favored, respectively, antecedent fungal growth in the soil and conidia liberation in 1984, the probable year of exposure. These climatic anomalies in this area was due to the 1982/83 El Nino event, the strongest in the last 50 years. Conclusions/Significance: We describe the first cluster of AF paracoccidioidomycosis, which was potentially linked to a climatic anomaly caused by the 1982/83 El Nino Southern Oscillation. This finding is important because it may help to clarify the conditions that favor Paracoccidioides brasiliensis survival and growth in the environment and that enhance human exposure, thus allowing the development of preventive measures.

The impact of the subtropical South Atlantic SST on South American precipitation

The Community Climate Model (CCM3) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is used to investigate the effect of the South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on interannual to decadal variability of South American precipitation. Two ensembles composed of multidecadal simulations forced with monthly SST data from the Hadley Centre for the period 1949 to 2001 are analysed. A statistical treatment based on signal-to-noise ratio and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) is applied to the ensembles in order to reduce the internal variability among the integrations. The ensemble treatment shows a spatial and temporal dependence of reproducibility. High degree of reproducibility is found in the tropics while the extratropics is apparently less reproducible. Austral autumn (MAM) and spring (SON) precipitation appears to be more reproducible over the South America-South Atlantic region than the summer (DJF) and winter (JJA) rainfall. While the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region is dominated by external variance, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) over South America is predominantly determined by internal variance, which makes it a difficult phenomenon to predict. Alternatively, the SACZ over western South Atlantic appears to be more sensitive to the subtropical SST anomalies than over the continent. An attempt is made to separate the atmospheric response forced by the South Atlantic SST anomalies from that associated with the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show that both the South Atlantic and Pacific SSTs modulate the intensity and position of the SACZ during DJF. Particularly, the subtropical South Atlantic SSTs are more important than ENSO in determining the position of the SACZ over the southeast Brazilian coast during DJF. On the other hand, the ENSO signal seems to influence the intensity of the SACZ not only in DJF but especially its oceanic branch during MAM. Both local and remote influences, however, are confounded by the large internal variance in the region. During MAM and JJA, the South Atlantic SST anomalies affect the magnitude and the meridional displacement of the ITCZ. In JJA, the ENSO has relatively little influence on the interannual variability of the simulated rainfall. During SON, however, the ENSO seems to counteract the effect of the subtropical South Atlantic SST variations on convection over South America.

Climate and acute/subacute paracoccidioidomycosis in a hyper-endemic area in Brazil

Methods Stepwise regression of annual data was applied to model incidence, calculated based on 91 cases, from lagged variables: antecedent precipitation, air temperature, soil water storage, absolute and relative air humidity, and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Results Multiple regression analyses resulted in a model, which explains 49% of the incidence variance, taking into account the absolute air humidity in the year of exposure, soil water storage and SOI of the previous 2 years. Conclusions The correlations may reflect enhanced fungal growth after increase in soil water storage in the longer term and greater spore release with increase in absolute air humidity in the short term.

Evidence of a genetic bottleneck in an El Nino affected population of South American fur seals, Arctocephalus australis

The South American fur seal, Arctocephalus australis, was one of the earliest otariid seals to be exploited by humans: at least 6000 years ago on the Atlantic coast and 4000 on the Pacific coast of South America. More than 750,000 fur seals were killed in Uruguay until 1991. However, a climatological phenomenon-the severe 1997-1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-was responsible for the decline of 72% Of the Peruvian fur seal population due to starvation as a consequence of warming of sea-surface temperatures and primary productivity reduction. Currently, there is no precise information on global population size or on the species` conservation status. The present study includes the first bottleneck test for the Pacific and Atlantic populations of A. australis based on the analysis of seven microsatellite loci. Genetic bottleneck compromises the evolutionary potential of a population to respond to environmental changes. The perspective becomes even more alarming due to current global warming models that predict stronger and more frequent ENSO events in the future. Our analysis found moderate support for deviation from neutrality-equilibrium for the Pacific population of fur seals and none for the Atlantic population. This difference among population reflects different demographic histories, and is consistent with a greater reduction in population size in the Pacific. Such an event could be a result of the synergic effects of recurrent ENSO events and the anthropogenic impact (sealing and prey overfishing) on this population.