Social organization of marine Tucuxi dolphins, Sotalia guianensis, in the Cananeia Estuary of southeastern Brazil

Social organization is an important component of the population biology of a species that influences gene flow, the spatial pattern and scale of movements, and the effects of predation or exploitation by humans. An important element of social structure in mammals is group fidelity, which can be quantified through association indices. To describe the social organization of marine tucuxi dolphins (Sotalia guianensis) found in the Cananeia estuary, southeastern Brazil, association indices were applied to photo-identification data to characterize the temporal stability of relationships among members of this population. Eighty-seven days of fieldwork were conducted from May 2000 to July 2003, resulting in direct observations of 374 distinct groups. A total of 138 dolphins were identified on 1-38 distinct field days. Lone dolphins were rarely seen, whereas groups were composed of up to 60 individuals (mean +/- 1 SD = 12.4 +/- 11.4 individuals per group). A total of 29,327 photographs were analyzed, of which 6,312 (21.5%) were considered useful for identifying individuals. Half-weight and simple ratio indices were used to investigate associations among S. guianensis as revealed by the entire data set, data from the core study site, and data from groups composed of <= 10 individuals. Monte Carlo methods indicated that only 3 (9.3%) of 32 association matrices differed significantly from expectations based on random association. Thus, our study suggests that stable associations are not characteristic of S. guianensis in the Cananeia estuary.

The game of contacts: Estimating the social visibility of groups

Estimating the sizes of hard-to-count populations is a challenging and important problem that occurs frequently in social science, public health, and public policy. This problem is particularly pressing in HIV/AIDS research because estimates of the sizes of the most at-risk populations-illicit drug users, men who have sex with men, and sex workers-are needed for designing, evaluating, and funding programs to curb the spread of the disease. A promising new approach in this area is the network scale-up method, which uses information about the personal networks of respondents to make population size estimates. However, if the target population has low social visibility, as is likely to be the case in HIV/AIDS research, scale-up estimates will be too low. In this paper we develop a game-like activity that we call the game of contacts in order to estimate the social visibility of groups, and report results from a study of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil (n = 294). The game produced estimates of social visibility that were consistent with qualitative expectations but of surprising magnitude. Further, a number of checks suggest that the data are high-quality. While motivated by the specific problem of population size estimation, our method could be used by researchers more broadly and adds to long-standing efforts to combine the richness of social network analysis with the power and scale of sample surveys. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tectonic implications of a paleomagnetic study of the Sarmiento Ophiolitic Complex, southern Chile

A paleomagnetic study was carried out on the Late Jurassic Sarmiento Ophiolitic Complex (SOC) exposed in the Magallanes fold and thrust belt in the southern Patagonian Andes (southern Chile). This complex, mainly consisting of a thick succession of pillow-lavas, sheeted dikes and gabbros, is a seafloor remnant of the Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous Rocas Verdes basin that developed along the south-western margin of South America. Stepwise thermal and alternating field demagnetization permitted the isolation of a post-folding characteristic remanence, apparently carried by fine grain (SD?) magnetite, both in the pillow-lavas and dikes. The mean ""in situ"" direction for the SOC is Dec: 286.9 degrees, Inc: -58.5 degrees, alpha-95: 6.9 degrees, N: 11 (sites). Rock magnetic properties, petrography and whole-rock K-Ar ages in the same rocks are interpreted as evidence of correlation between remanence acquisition and a greenschist facies metamorphic overprint that must have occurred during latest stages or after closure and tectonic inversion of the basin in the Late Cretaceous. The mean remanence direction is anomalous relative to the expected Late Cretaceous direction from stable South America. Particularly, a declination anomaly over 50 degrees is suggestively similar to paleomagnetically interpreted counter clockwise rotations found in thrust slices of the Jurassic El Quemado Fm. located over 100 km north of the study area in Argentina. Nevertheless, a significant ccw rotation of the whole SOC is difficult to reconcile with geologic evidence and paleogeographic models that suggest a narrow back-arc basin sub-parallel to the continental margin. A rigid-body 30 degrees westward tilting of the SOC block around a horizontal axis trending NNW, is considered a much simpler explanation, being consistent with geologic evidence. This may have occurred as a consequence of inverse reactivation of old normal faults, which limit both the SOC exposures and the Cordillera Sarmiento to the East. The age of tilting is unknown but it must postdate remanence acquisition in the Late Cretaceous. Two major orogenic events of the southern Patagonian Andes, in the Eocene (ca. 42 Ma) and Middle Miocene (ca. 12 Ma), respectively, could have caused the proposed tilting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inferential Implications of Over-Parametrization: A Case Study in Incomplete Categorical Data

P>In the context of either Bayesian or classical sensitivity analyses of over-parametrized models for incomplete categorical data, it is well known that prior-dependence on posterior inferences of nonidentifiable parameters or that too parsimonious over-parametrized models may lead to erroneous conclusions. Nevertheless, some authors either pay no attention to which parameters are nonidentifiable or do not appropriately account for possible prior-dependence. We review the literature on this topic and consider simple examples to emphasize that in both inferential frameworks, the subjective components can influence results in nontrivial ways, irrespectively of the sample size. Specifically, we show that prior distributions commonly regarded as slightly informative or noninformative may actually be too informative for nonidentifiable parameters, and that the choice of over-parametrized models may drastically impact the results, suggesting that a careful examination of their effects should be considered before drawing conclusions.Resume Que ce soit dans un cadre Bayesien ou classique, il est bien connu que la surparametrisation, dans les modeles pour donnees categorielles incompletes, peut conduire a des conclusions erronees. Cependant, certains auteurs persistent a negliger les problemes lies a la presence de parametres non identifies. Nous passons en revue la litterature dans ce domaine, et considerons quelques exemples surparametres simples dans lesquels les elements subjectifs influencent de facon non negligeable les resultats, independamment de la taille des echantillons. Plus precisement, nous montrons comment des a priori consideres comme peu ou non-informatifs peuvent se reveler extremement informatifs en ce qui concerne les parametres non identifies, et que le recours a des modeles surparametres peut avoir sur les conclusions finales un impact considerable. Ceci suggere un examen tres attentif de l`impact potentiel des a priori.