DIAGNOSTIC TECHNIQUES OF LOCAL INFLUENCE IN SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF SOYBEAN YIELD

Modeling of spatial dependence structure, concerning geoestatistics approach, is an indispensable tool for fixing parameters that define this structure, applied on interpolation of values in places that are not sampled, by kriging techniques. However, the estimation of parameters can be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations on sampled data. Thus, this trial aimed at using diagnostics techniques of local influence in spatial linear Gaussians models, applied at geoestatistics in order to evaluate sensitivity of maximum likelihood estimators and restrict maximum likelihood to small perturbations in these data. So, studies with simulated and experimental data were performed. Those results, obtained from the study of real data, allowed us to conclude that the presence of atypical values among the sampled data can have a strong influence on thematic maps, changing, therefore, the spatial dependence. The application of diagnostics techniques of local influence should be part of any geoestatistic analysis, ensuring that the information from thematic maps has better quality and can be used with greater security by farmers.

Forest-obligate Sabethes mosquitoes suggest palaeoecological perturbations

The origin of tropical forest diversity has been hotly debated for decades. Although specific mechanisms vary, many such explanations propose some vicariance in the distribution of species during glacial cycles and several have been supported by genetic evidence in Neotropical taxa. However, no consensus exists with regard to the extent or time frame of the vicariance events. Here, we analyse the cytochrome oxidase II mitochondrial gene of 250 Sabethes albiprivus B mosquitoes sampled from western Sao Paulo in Brazil. There was very low population structuring among collection sites (Phi(ST) = 0.03, P = 0.04). Historic demographic analyses and the contemporary geographic distribution of genetic diversity suggest that the populations sampled are not at demographic equilibrium. Three distinct mitochondrial clades were observed in the samples, one of which differed significantly in its geographic distribution relative to the other two within a small sampling area (similar to 70 x 35 km). This fact, supported by the inability of maximum likelihood analyses to achieve adequate fits to simple models for the population demography of the species, suggests a more complex history, possibly involving disjunct forest refugia. This hypothesis is supported by a genetic signal of recent population growth, which is expected if population sizes of this forest-obligate insect increased during the forest expansions that followed glacial periods. Although a time frame cannot be reliably inferred for the vicariance event leading to the three genetic clades, molecular clock estimates place this at similar to 1 Myr before present.

Suppression of small baryonic structures due to a primordial magnetic field

We investigate the impact of the existence of a primordial magnetic field on the filter mass, characterizing the minimum baryonic mass that can form in dark matter (DM) haloes. For masses below the filter mass, the baryon content of DM haloes are severely depressed. The filter mass is the mass when the baryon to DM mass ratio in a halo is equal to half the baryon to DM ratio of the Universe. The filter mass has previously been used in semi-analytic calculations of galaxy formation, without taking into account the possible existence of a primordial magnetic field. We examine here its effect on the filter mass. For homogeneous comoving primordial magnetic fields of B(0) similar to 1 or 2 nG and a re-ionization epoch that starts at a redshift z(s) = 11 and is completed at z(r) = 8, the filter mass is increased at redshift 8, for example, by factors of 4.1 and 19.8, respectively. The dependence of the filter mass on the parameters describing the re-ionization epoch is investigated. Our results are particularly important for the formation of low-mass galaxies in the presence of a homogeneous primordial magnetic field. For example, for B(0) similar to 1 nG and a re-ionization epoch of z(s) similar to 11 and z(r) similar to 7, our results indicate that galaxies of total mass M similar to 5 x 108 M(circle dot) need to form at redshifts z(F) greater than or similar to 2.0, and galaxies of total mass M similar to 108 M(circle dot) at redshifts z(F) greater than or similar to 7.7.

The signature of dark energy perturbations in galaxy cluster surveys

Models of dynamical dark energy unavoidably possess fluctuations in the energy density and pressure of that new component. In this paper we estimate the impact of dark energy fluctuations on the number of galaxy clusters in the Universe using a generalization of the spherical collapse model and the Press-Schechter formalism. The observations we consider are several hypothetical Sunyaev-Zel`dovich and weak lensing (shear maps) cluster surveys, with limiting masses similar to ongoing (SPT, DES) as well as future (LSST, Euclid) surveys. Our statistical analysis is performed in a 7-dimensional cosmological parameter space using the Fisher matrix method. We find that, in some scenarios, the impact of these fluctuations is large enough that their effect could already be detected by existing instruments such as the South Pole Telescope, when priors from other standard cosmological probes are included. We also show how dark energy fluctuations can be a nuisance for constraining cosmological parameters with cluster counts, and point to a degeneracy between the parameter that describes dark energy pressure on small scales (the effective sound speed) and the parameters describing its equation of state.