Um modelo estocástico combinado de previsão sazonal para a precipitação no Brasil

Este artigo discute um modelo de previsão combinada para a realização de prognósticos climáticos na escala sazonal. Nele, previsões pontuais de modelos estocásticos são agregadas para obter as melhores projeções no tempo. Utilizam-se modelos estocásticos autoregressivos integrados a médias móveis, de suavização exponencial e previsões por análise de correlações canônicas. O controle de qualidade das previsões é feito através da análise dos resíduos e da avaliação do percentual de redução da variância não-explicada da modelagem combinada em relação às previsões dos modelos individuais. Exemplos da aplicação desses conceitos em modelos desenvolvidos no Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) mostram bons resultados e ilustram que as previsões do modelo combinado, superam na maior parte dos casos a de cada modelo componente, quando comparadas aos dados observados.

Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries

Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.

Cultural Consonance, a 5HT2A Receptor Polymorphism, and Depressive Symptoms: A Longitudinal Study of Gene x Culture Interaction in Urban Brazil

In this study in urban Brazil we examine, as a predictor of depressive symptoms, the interaction between a single nucleotide polymorphism in the 2A receptor in the serotonin system (-1438G/A) and cultural consonance in family life, a measure of the degree to which an individual perceives her family as corresponding to a widely shared cultural model of the prototypical family. A community sample of 144 adults was followed over a 2-year-period. Cultural consonance in family life was assessed by linking individuals` perceptions of their own families with a shared cultural model of the family derived from cultural consensus analysis. The -1438G/A polymorphism in the 2A serotonin receptor was genotyped using a standard protocol for DNA extracted from leukocytes. Covariates included age, sex, socioeconomic status, and stressful life events. Cultural consonance in family life was prospectively associated with depressive symptoms. In addition, the interaction between genotype and cultural consonance in family life was significant. For individuals with the A/A variant of the -1438G/A polymorphism of the 2A receptor gene, the effect of cultural consonance in family life on depressive symptoms over a 2-year-period was larger (beta = -0.533, P < 0.01) than those effects for individuals with either the G/A (beta = -0.280, P < 0.10) or G/G (beta = -0.272, P < 0.05) variants. These results are consistent with a process in which genotype moderates the effects of culturally meaningful social experience on depressive symptoms. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 21:91-97, 2009. (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A new model of outbred genetically selected mice which present a strong acute inflammatory response in the absence of complement component C5

Mice selected for a strong (AIRmax) or weak (AIRmin) acute inflammatory response present different susceptibilities to bacterial infections, autoimmune diseases and carcinogenesis. Variations in these phenotypes have been also detected in AIRmax and AIRmin mice rendered homozygous for Slc11a1 resistant (R) and susceptible (S) alleles. Our aim was to investigate if the phenotypic differences observed in these mice was related to the complement system. AIRmax and AIRmin mice and AIRmax and AIRmin groups homozygous for the resistance (R) or susceptibility (S) alleles of the solute carrier family 11a1 member (Slc11a1) gene, formerly designated Nramp-1. While no difference in complement activity was detected in sera from AIRmax and AIRmin strains, all sera from AIRmax Slc11a1 resistant mice (AIRmax(RR)) presented no complement-dependent hemolytic activity. Furthermore, C5 was not found in their sera by immunodiffusion and, polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing of its gene demonstrated that AIRmax(RR) mice are homozygous for the C5 deficient (D) mutation previously described in A/J. Therefore, the C5D allele was fixed in homozygosis in AIRmax(RR) line. The AIRmax(RR) line is a new experimental mouse model in which a strong inflammatory response can be triggered in vivo in the absence of C5.

Relatedness and HLA-DRB1 typing may discriminate the magnitude of the genetic susceptibility to tuberculosis using a household contact model

Background Tuberculosis clusters in families may be due to increased household exposure, shared genetic factors, or both. Household contact studies are useful to control exposure because socioeconomic and environmental conditions are similar to all subjects, allowing the evaluation of the contribution of relatedness to disease development. Methods In this study, the familial aggregation of tuberculosis using relatedness and a specific inherited marker (HLA-DRB1) was evaluated. Fifty families, which had at least two cases of tuberculosis diagnosed within the past 5 years, were selected from a cohort of tuberculosis carried out in Recife, Brazil. The first case diagnosed was considered to be a primary case. The secondary attack rate of tuberculosis in household contacts was estimated according to the degree of relatedness. The relative risk of having tuberculosis based on the degree of relatedness household and the population attributable fraction to relatedness were also estimated. HLA-DRB1 typing and attributable etiologic/preventive fractions were calculated among sick and healthy household contacts. Results Compared to unrelated contacts, the relative risk for tuberculosis adjusted for age was 1.38 (95% CI 0.86 to 2.21). Relatedness contributed 23% to the development of tuberculosis at the population levels. The HLA-DRB1*04 allele group (OR = 2.44; p =0.0324; etiologic fraction =0.15) was overrepresented and the DRB1*15 allele group (OR=0.48; p=0.0488; protective fraction=0.19) was underrepresented among household contacts exhibiting tuberculosis. The presence of DRB1 shared alleles between primary cases and their contacts was a risk factor for tuberculosis (p=0.0281). Conclusion This household contact model together with the utilisation of two genetic variables permitted the evaluation of genetic factors contributing towards tuberculosis development.

Turbulent magnetic pumping in a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model

Context. The turbulent pumping effect corresponds to the transport of magnetic flux due to the presence of density and turbulence gradients in convectively unstable layers. In the induction equation it appears as an advective term and for this reason it is expected to be important in the solar and stellar dynamo processes. Aims. We explore the effects of turbulent pumping in a flux-dominated Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model with a solar-like rotation law. Methods. As a first step, only vertical pumping has been considered through the inclusion of a radial diamagnetic term in the induction equation. In the second step, a latitudinal pumping term was included and then, a near-surface shear was included. Results. The results reveal the importance of the pumping mechanism in solving current limitations in mean field dynamo modeling, such as the storage of the magnetic flux and the latitudinal distribution of the sunspots. If a meridional flow is assumed to be present only in the upper part of the convective zone, it is the full turbulent pumping that regulates both the period of the solar cycle and the latitudinal distribution of the sunspot activity. In models that consider shear near the surface, a second shell of toroidal field is generated above r = 0.95 R(circle dot) at all latitudes. If the full pumping is also included, the polar toroidal fields are efficiently advected inwards, and the toroidal magnetic activity survives only at the observed latitudes near the equator. With regard to the parity of the magnetic field, only models that combine turbulent pumping with near-surface shear always converge to the dipolar parity. Conclusions. This result suggests that, under the Babcock-Leighton approach, the equartorward motion of the observed magnetic activity is governed by the latitudinal pumping of the toroidal magnetic field rather than by a large scale coherent meridional flow. Our results support the idea that the parity problem is related to the quadrupolar imprint of the meridional flow on the poloidal component of the magnetic field and the turbulent pumping positively contributes to wash out this imprint.

Hubble parameter reconstruction from a principal component analysis: minimizing the bias

Aims. A model-independent reconstruction of the cosmic expansion rate is essential to a robust analysis of cosmological observations. Our goal is to demonstrate that current data are able to provide reasonable constraints on the behavior of the Hubble parameter with redshift, independently of any cosmological model or underlying gravity theory. Methods. Using type Ia supernova data, we show that it is possible to analytically calculate the Fisher matrix components in a Hubble parameter analysis without assumptions about the energy content of the Universe. We used a principal component analysis to reconstruct the Hubble parameter as a linear combination of the Fisher matrix eigenvectors (principal components). To suppress the bias introduced by the high redshift behavior of the components, we considered the value of the Hubble parameter at high redshift as a free parameter. We first tested our procedure using a mock sample of type Ia supernova observations, we then applied it to the real data compiled by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) group. Results. In the mock sample analysis, we demonstrate that it is possible to drastically suppress the bias introduced by the high redshift behavior of the principal components. Applying our procedure to the real data, we show that it allows us to determine the behavior of the Hubble parameter with reasonable uncertainty, without introducing any ad-hoc parameterizations. Beyond that, our reconstruction agrees with completely independent measurements of the Hubble parameter obtained from red-envelope galaxies.

The number of reproductive workers in highly eusocial Hymenoptera: monogyny and monandry

Haplodiploidy results in relatedness asymmetries between colony members of highly eusocial Hymenoptera. As a consequence, queen and reproductive workers are more related to their own sons than to each other's male offspring. Kin selection theory predicts multiple optima in male parentage: either the queen or the workers should produce all the males. Nevertheless, shared male parentage is common in highly eusocial hymenopterans. An inclusive fitness model was used to analyze the effect of the number of reproductive workers on male parentage shared by the queen and laying workers by isolating the male component from an inclusive fitness equation using the equal fitness through male condition for each pairwise combination of the three female classes comprised of the queen, laying workers and non-laying workers. The main result of the theoretical analyses showed that the fraction of males produced by workers increases asymptotically with the number of laying workers at an increasingly diminishing rate, tending to an asymptotic value of 0.67. In addition, as the number of laying workers increases, the share of male parentage converges to that of non-laying workers. The diminishing return effect on male parentage share depending on the number of reproductive workers leads us to expect the number of reproductive workers to be relatively small in a stingless bee colony, even in the absence of productivity costs. The available data confirms this hypothesis, as there is an unusually small number of reproductive workers in stingless bee colonies.

Renal denervation in an animal model of diabetes and hypertension: Impact on the autonomic nervous system and nephropathy

Background: The effects of renal denervation on cardiovascular reflexes and markers of nephropathy in diabetic-hypertensive rats have not yet been explored. Methods: Aim: To evaluate the effects of renal denervation on nephropathy development mechanisms (blood pressure, cardiovascular autonomic changes, renal GLUT2) in diabetic-hypertensive rats. Forty-one male spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) similar to 250 g were injected with STZ or not; 30 days later, surgical renal denervation (RD) or sham procedure was performed; 15 days later, glycemia and albuminuria (ELISA) were evaluated. Catheters were implanted into the femoral artery to evaluate arterial pressure (AP) and heart rate variability (spectral analysis) one day later in conscious animals. Animals were killed, kidneys removed, and cortical renal GLUT2 quantified (Western blotting). Results: Higher glycemia (p < 0.05) and lower mean AP were observed in diabetics vs. nondiabetics (p < 0.05). Heart rate was higher in renal-denervated hypertensive and lower in diabetic-hypertensive rats (384.8 +/- 37, 431.3 +/- 36, 316.2 +/- 5, 363.8 +/- 12 bpm in SHR, RD-SHR, STZ-SHR and RD-STZ-SHR, respectively). Heart rate variability was higher in renal-denervated diabetic-hypertensive rats (55.75 +/- 25.21, 73.40 +/- 53.30, 148.4 +/- 93 in RD-SHR, STZ-SHR-and RD-STZ-SHR, respectively, p < 0.05), as well as the LF component of AP variability (1.62 +/- 0.9, 2.12 +/- 0.9, 7.38 +/- 6.5 in RD-SHR, STZ-SHR and RD-STZ-SHR, respectively, p < 0.05). GLUT2 renal content was higher in all groups vs. SHR. Conclusions: Renal denervation in diabetic-hypertensive rats improved previously reduced heart rate variability. The GLUT2 equally overexpressed by diabetes and renal denervation may represent a maximal derangement effect of each condition.

Two-component Abelian sandpile models

In one-component Abelian sandpile models, the toppling probabilities are independent quantities. This is not the case in multicomponent models. The condition of associativity of the underlying Abelian algebras imposes nonlinear relations among the toppling probabilities. These relations are derived for the case of two-component quadratic Abelian algebras. We show that Abelian sandpile models with two conservation laws have only trivial avalanches.

Statistics of opinion domains of the majority-vote model on a square lattice

The existence of juxtaposed regions of distinct cultures in spite of the fact that people's beliefs have a tendency to become more similar to each other's as the individuals interact repeatedly is a puzzling phenomenon in the social sciences. Here we study an extreme version of the frequency-dependent bias model of social influence in which an individual adopts the opinion shared by the majority of the members of its extended neighborhood, which includes the individual itself. This is a variant of the majority-vote model in which the individual retains its opinion in case there is a tie among the neighbors' opinions. We assume that the individuals are fixed in the sites of a square lattice of linear size L and that they interact with their nearest neighbors only. Within a mean-field framework, we derive the equations of motion for the density of individuals adopting a particular opinion in the single-site and pair approximations. Although the single-site approximation predicts a single opinion domain that takes over the entire lattice, the pair approximation yields a qualitatively correct picture with the coexistence of different opinion domains and a strong dependence on the initial conditions. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations indicate the existence of a rich distribution of opinion domains or clusters, the number of which grows with L(2) whereas the size of the largest cluster grows with ln L(2). The analysis of the sizes of the opinion domains shows that they obey a power-law distribution for not too large sizes but that they are exponentially distributed in the limit of very large clusters. In addition, similarly to other well-known social influence model-Axelrod's model-we found that these opinion domains are unstable to the effect of a thermal-like noise.

Neural network model for designing automotive devices using SMD LED

The advantages offered by the electronic component LED (Light Emitting Diode) have resulted in a quick and extensive application of this device in the replacement of incandescent lights. In this combined application, however, the relationship between the design variables and the desired effect or result is very complex and renders it difficult to model using conventional techniques. This paper consists of the development of a technique using artificial neural networks that makes it possible to obtain the luminous intensity values of brake lights using SMD (Surface Mounted Device) LEDs from design data. This technique can be utilized to design any automotive device that uses groups of SMD LEDs. The results of industrial applications using SMD LED are presented to validate the proposed technique.

Constitutive model for long term municipal solid waste mechanical behavior

This paper presents some improvements in the model proposed by Machado et al. [Machado SL, Carvalho MF, Vilar OM. Constitutive model for municipal solid waste. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng ASCE 2002; 128(11):940-51] now considering the influence of biodegradation of organic matter in the mechanical behavior of municipal solid waste. The original framework considers waste as composed of two component groups; fibers and organic paste. The particular laws of behavior are assessed for each component group and then coupled to represent waste behavior. The improvements introduced in this paper take into account the changes in the properties of fibers and mass loss due to organic matter depletion over time. Mass loss is indirectly calculated considering the MSW gas generation potential through a first order decay model. It is shown that as the biodegradation process occurs the proportion of fibers increases, however, they also undergo a degradation process which tends to reduce their ultimate tensile stress and Young modulus. The way these changes influence the behavior of MSW is incorporated in the final framework which captures the main features of the MSW stress-strain behavior under different loading conditions. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MODELING THE UNVOICED COMPONENT IN THE CANONICAL REPRESENTATION OF SPEECH

The canonical representation of speech constitutes a perfect reconstruction (PR) analysis-synthesis system. Its parameters are the autoregressive (AR) model coefficients, the pitch period and the voiced and unvoiced components of the excitation represented as transform coefficients. Each set of parameters may be operated on independently. A time-frequency unvoiced excitation (TFUNEX) model is proposed that has high time resolution and selective frequency resolution. Improved time-frequency fit is obtained by using for antialiasing cancellation the clustering of pitch-synchronous transform tracks defined in the modulation transform domain. The TFUNEX model delivers high-quality speech while compressing the unvoiced excitation representation about 13 times over its raw transform coefficient representation for wideband speech.

Shared structural determinants for the calcium-independent liposome membrane permeabilization and sarcolemma depolarization in Bothropstoxin-I, a LYS49-PLA(2) from the venom of Bothrops jararacussu

The structural determinants of myotoxicity of bothropstoxin-I (BthTX-I), a Lys49 phospholipase A(2) from Bothrops jararacussu venom, were studied by measuring the resting membrane potential in the mouse phrenic nerve-diaphragm preparation. This method proved to be around 100-fold more sensitive than the creatine kinase release assay, and was used to evaluate a total of 31 site-directed BthTX-I alanine scanning mutants. Mutants that reduced the resting membrane potential were located in a surface patch defined by residues in the C-terminal loop (residues 115-129), positions 37-39 in the membrane interfacial recognition surface (Y46 and K54), and residue K93. These results expand the known structural determinants of the biological activity as evaluated by previous creatine kinase release experiments. Furthermore, a strong correlation is observed between the structural determinants of sarcolemma depolarization and calcium-independent disruption of liposome membranes, suggesting that a common mechanism of action underlies the permeabilization of the biological and model membranes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.