Middle Pleistocene sea surface temperature in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence Zone: Paleoceanographic implications based on planktonic foraminifera

We reconstructed Middle Pleistocene surface hydrography in the western South Atlantic based on planktonic foraminiferal assemblages, modern analog technique and Globorotalia truncatulinoides isotopic ratios of core SP1251 (38 degrees 29.7`S / 53 degrees 40.7`W / 3400 m water depth). Biostratigraphic analysis suggests that sediments were deposited between 0.3 and 0.12 Ma and therefore correlate to Marine Isotopic Stage 6 or 8. Faunal assemblage-based winter and summer SST estimates suggest that the western South Atlantic at 38 degrees S was 4-6 degrees C colder than at present, within the expected range for a glacial interval. High relative abundances of subantarctic species, particularly the dominance of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (left), support lower than present SSTs throughout the recorded period. The oxygen isotopic composition of G. truncatulinoides suggests a northward shift of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence Zone and of the associated mid-latitude frontal system during this Middle Pleistocene cold period, and a stronger than present influence of superficial subantarctic waters and lowering in SSTs at our core site during the recorded Middle Pleistocene glacial.

The impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation phases on off-season maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil

In recent years, maize has become one of the main alternative crops for the autumn winter growing season in the central-western and southeastern regions of Brazil. However, water deficits, sub-optimal temperatures and low solar radiation levels are common problems that are experienced during this growing season by local farmers. One methodology to assess the impact of variable weather conditions on crop production is the use of crop simulation models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate variability on maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil. Specific objectives for this study were (1) to analyse the effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation and air temperature for four locations in the state of Sao Paulo and (2) to analyse the impact of ENSO on maize grown off-season for the same four locations using a crop simulation model. For each site, historical weather data were categorised as belonging to one of three phases of ENSO: El Nino (warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific), La Nina (cool sea surface temperature anomalies) or neutral, based on an index derived from observed sea surface temperature anomalies. During El Nino, there is a tendency for an increase in the rainfall amount during May for the four selected locations, and also during April, mainly in three of the locations, resulting in an increase in simulated maize yield planted between February 15 and March 15. In general, there was a decrease in the simulated yield for maize grown off-season during neutral years. This study showed how a crop model can be used to assess the impact of climate variability on the yield of maize grown off-season in a subtropical region of Brazil. The outcomes of this study can be very useful for both policy makers and local farmers for agricultural planning and decision making. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

The South American Monsoon System and the 1970s climate transition

The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is characterised by intense convective activity and precipitation during austral summer. This study investigates changes in the onset, demise and duration of SAMS during 1948-2008. The results show a significant change in these characteristics in the early 1970s. Onset becomes steadily earlier from 1948 to early 1970s and has occurred earlier than 23-27 October after 1972-1973. Demise dates have remained later than 21-25 April after the mid-to-late 1970s. SAMS duration shows a statistical changepoint in the summer of 1971-1972 such that the mean duration was similar to 170 days (1948-1972) and 195 days (1972-1982). Vertically integrated moisture flux is used to diagnose changes in mean state and reveal statistically significant increases over South America after 1971-1972. Copyright. (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

The impact of the subtropical South Atlantic SST on South American precipitation

The Community Climate Model (CCM3) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is used to investigate the effect of the South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on interannual to decadal variability of South American precipitation. Two ensembles composed of multidecadal simulations forced with monthly SST data from the Hadley Centre for the period 1949 to 2001 are analysed. A statistical treatment based on signal-to-noise ratio and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) is applied to the ensembles in order to reduce the internal variability among the integrations. The ensemble treatment shows a spatial and temporal dependence of reproducibility. High degree of reproducibility is found in the tropics while the extratropics is apparently less reproducible. Austral autumn (MAM) and spring (SON) precipitation appears to be more reproducible over the South America-South Atlantic region than the summer (DJF) and winter (JJA) rainfall. While the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region is dominated by external variance, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) over South America is predominantly determined by internal variance, which makes it a difficult phenomenon to predict. Alternatively, the SACZ over western South Atlantic appears to be more sensitive to the subtropical SST anomalies than over the continent. An attempt is made to separate the atmospheric response forced by the South Atlantic SST anomalies from that associated with the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show that both the South Atlantic and Pacific SSTs modulate the intensity and position of the SACZ during DJF. Particularly, the subtropical South Atlantic SSTs are more important than ENSO in determining the position of the SACZ over the southeast Brazilian coast during DJF. On the other hand, the ENSO signal seems to influence the intensity of the SACZ not only in DJF but especially its oceanic branch during MAM. Both local and remote influences, however, are confounded by the large internal variance in the region. During MAM and JJA, the South Atlantic SST anomalies affect the magnitude and the meridional displacement of the ITCZ. In JJA, the ENSO has relatively little influence on the interannual variability of the simulated rainfall. During SON, however, the ENSO seems to counteract the effect of the subtropical South Atlantic SST variations on convection over South America.