20 resultados para SUCCESS PROBABILITY

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)


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We analyze data obtained from a study designed to evaluate training effects on the performance of certain motor activities of Parkinson`s disease patients. Maximum likelihood methods were used to fit beta-binomial/Poisson regression models tailored to evaluate the effects of training on the numbers of attempted and successful specified manual movements in 1 min periods, controlling for disease stage and use of the preferred hand. We extend models previously considered by other authors in univariate settings to account for the repeated measures nature of the data. The results suggest that the expected number of attempts and successes increase with training, except for patients with advanced stages of the disease using the non-preferred hand. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Artificial reproduction and gamete fertilization were evaluated in Salminus hilarii wild and domesticated broodstocks. Wild and domesticated broodstocks were artificially induced to reproduction using a carp pituitary treatment. Four groups were considered: Group 1 (G1), fish caught in the wild maintained for three years in the same conditions as the domesticated broodstocks and spawned naturally; Group 2 (G2), broodstock born and raised in captivity and spawned naturally; Group 3 (G3), wild broodstocks, which were manually stripped for gamete collection and dry fertilization; and Group 4 (G4), domesticated males and females, also manually stripped. Oocytes, eggs, and larvae were sampled at different time intervals throughout embryonic development. Yolk sac absorption occurred approximately 24-29 h after hatching. Twenty-six h after hatching, the larvae mouths opened. Cannibalism was identified just 28-30 h after hatching. There was no morphological difference in embryonic development among all groups. The number of released eggs per gram of female was: G1: 83.3 ± 24.5 and G2: 103.8 ± 37.4; however, the fertilization success was lower in G2 (42.0 ± 6.37 %) compared with G1 (54.7 ± 3.02%) (P = 0.011). Hand-stripping of oocytes was not successful and the fertilization rate was zero. The reproduction of this species in captivity is viable, but it is necessary to improve broodstock management to enhance fertilization rates and obtain better fingerling production for restocking programs.

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Background: High-throughput SNP genotyping has become an essential requirement for molecular breeding and population genomics studies in plant species. Large scale SNP developments have been reported for several mainstream crops. A growing interest now exists to expand the speed and resolution of genetic analysis to outbred species with highly heterozygous genomes. When nucleotide diversity is high, a refined diagnosis of the target SNP sequence context is needed to convert queried SNPs into high-quality genotypes using the Golden Gate Genotyping Technology (GGGT). This issue becomes exacerbated when attempting to transfer SNPs across species, a scarcely explored topic in plants, and likely to become significant for population genomics and inter specific breeding applications in less domesticated and less funded plant genera. Results: We have successfully developed the first set of 768 SNPs assayed by the GGGT for the highly heterozygous genome of Eucalyptus from a mixed Sanger/454 database with 1,164,695 ESTs and the preliminary 4.5X draft genome sequence for E. grandis. A systematic assessment of in silico SNP filtering requirements showed that stringent constraints on the SNP surrounding sequences have a significant impact on SNP genotyping performance and polymorphism. SNP assay success was high for the 288 SNPs selected with more rigorous in silico constraints; 93% of them provided high quality genotype calls and 71% of them were polymorphic in a diverse panel of 96 individuals of five different species. SNP reliability was high across nine Eucalyptus species belonging to three sections within subgenus Symphomyrtus and still satisfactory across species of two additional subgenera, although polymorphism declined as phylogenetic distance increased. Conclusions: This study indicates that the GGGT performs well both within and across species of Eucalyptus notwithstanding its nucleotide diversity >= 2%. The development of a much larger array of informative SNPs across multiple Eucalyptus species is feasible, although strongly dependent on having a representative and sufficiently deep collection of sequences from many individuals of each target species. A higher density SNP platform will be instrumental to undertake genome-wide phylogenetic and population genomics studies and to implement molecular breeding by Genomic Selection in Eucalyptus.

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The objective of this manuscript is to discuss the existing barriers for the dissemination of medical guidelines, and to present strategies that facilitate the adaptation of the recommendations into clinical practice. The literature shows that it usually takes several years until new scientific evidence is adopted in current practice, even when there is obvious impact in patients' morbidity and mortality. There are some examples where more than thirty years have elapsed since the first case reports about the use of a effective therapy were published until its utilization became routine. That is the case of fibrinolysis for the treatment of acute myocardial infarction. Some of the main barriers for the implementation of new recommendations are: the lack of knowledge of a new guideline, personal resistance to changes, uncertainty about the efficacy of the proposed recommendation, fear of potential side-effects, difficulties in remembering the recommendations, inexistence of institutional policies reinforcing the recommendation and even economical restrains. In order to overcome these barriers a strategy that involves a program with multiple tools is always the best. That must include the implementation of easy-to-use algorithms, continuous medical education materials and lectures, electronic or paper alerts, tools to facilitate evaluation and prescription, and periodic audits to show results to the practitioners involved in the process. It is also fundamental that the medical societies involved with the specific medical issue support the program for its scientific and ethical soundness. The creation of multidisciplinary committees in each institution and the inclusion of opinion leaders that have pro-active and lasting attitudes are the key-points for the program's success. In this manuscript we use as an example the implementation of a guideline for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis, but the concepts described here can be easily applied to any other guideline. Therefore, these concepts could be very useful for institutions and services that aim at quality improvement of patient care. Changes in current medical practice recommended by guidelines may take some time. However, if there is a broader participation of opinion leaders and the use of several tools listed here, they surely have a greater probability of reaching the main objectives: improvement in provided medical care and patient safety.

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The purpose of the present research was to investigate the effects of polymorphisms of luteinizing hormone receptor (LHR) and follicle-stimulating hormone receptor (FSHR) genes, evaluated by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism in European-Zebu composite beef heifers from six different breed compositions. The polymorphism site analysis from digestion with HhaI and AluI restriction endonucleases allowed the genotype identification for LHR (TT, CT and CC) and FSHR (GG, CG and CC) genes. A high frequency of heterozygous animals was recorded in all breed compositions for both genes, except in two compositions for LHR. The probability of pregnancy (PP) at first breeding was used to evaluate the polymorphism effect on sexual precocity. The PP was analyzed as a binary trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. Heterozygous heifers showed a higher pregnancy rate (67 and 66% for LHR and FSHR genes, respectively), but no significant effects were observed for the genes studied (P=0.9188 and 0.8831 for LHR and FSHR, respectively) on the PP. These results do not justify the inclusion of LHR and FSHR restriction fragment length polymorphism markers in selection programs for sexual precocity in beef heifers. Nevertheless, these markers make possible the genotype characterization and may be used in additional studies to evaluate the genetic structure in other bovine populations.

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The structure of probability currents is studied for the dynamical network after consecutive contraction on two-state, nonequilibrium lattice systems. This procedure allows us to investigate the transition rates between configurations on small clusters and highlights some relevant effects of lattice symmetries on the elementary transitions that are responsible for entropy production. A method is suggested to estimate the entropy production for different levels of approximations (cluster sizes) as demonstrated in the two-dimensional contact process with mutation.

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We investigate the performance of a variant of Axelrod's model for dissemination of culture-the Adaptive Culture Heuristic (ACH)-on solving an NP-Complete optimization problem, namely, the classification of binary input patterns of size F by a Boolean Binary Perceptron. In this heuristic, N agents, characterized by binary strings of length F which represent possible solutions to the optimization problem, are fixed at the sites of a square lattice and interact with their nearest neighbors only. The interactions are such that the agents' strings (or cultures) become more similar to the low-cost strings of their neighbors resulting in the dissemination of these strings across the lattice. Eventually the dynamics freezes into a homogeneous absorbing configuration in which all agents exhibit identical solutions to the optimization problem. We find through extensive simulations that the probability of finding the optimal solution is a function of the reduced variable F/N(1/4) so that the number of agents must increase with the fourth power of the problem size, N proportional to F(4), to guarantee a fixed probability of success. In this case, we find that the relaxation time to reach an absorbing configuration scales with F(6) which can be interpreted as the overall computational cost of the ACH to find an optimal set of weights for a Boolean binary perceptron, given a fixed probability of success.

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In contrast to marking of the location of resources or sexual partners using single-spot pheromone sources, pheromone paths attached to the substrate and assisting orientation are rarely found among flying organisms. However, they do exist in meliponine bees (Apidae, Apinae, Meliponini), commonly known as stingless bees, which represent a group of important pollinators in tropical forests. Worker bees of several Neotropical meliponine species, especially in the genus Scaptotrigona Moure 1942, deposit pheromone paths on substrates between highly profitable resources and their nest. In contrast to past results and claims, we find that these pheromone paths are not an indispensable condition for successful recruitment but rather a means to increase the success of recruiters in persuading their nestmates to forage food at a particular location. Our results are relevant to a speciation theory in scent path-laying meliponine bees, such as Scaptotrigona. In addition, the finding that pheromone path-laying bees are able to recruit to food locations even across barriers such as large bodies of water affects tropical pollination ecology and theories on the evolution of resource communication in insect societies with a flying worker caste.

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Background/Purpose: Central venous catheterization is among the most common procedures performed by pediatric surgeons. Significant morbidity and even mortality can ensue from the widespread approach to the deep veins of the neck and femoral region. The external jugular vein (EJV) is a low-morbidity alternative for percutaneous catheterization in children, but it has yielded a low success rate in previous reports The authors show an improved success rate with this option. Methods: We performed an analysis of 33 patients` charts in which central venous catheterization using Seldinger technique through the EJV was attempted in 2005. Age, diagnosis, maneuvers used for success, fluoroscopy usefulness, and types of inserted catheters were evaluated. Results: The procedure was successful in 26 (78.8%) patients without complications. Diagnosis was neoplasia in almost half of the patients (42%). In half of the successful cases, body maneuvers were used, namely, twisting the head of the patient to the side of the vein and stretching the ipsilateral arm and shoulder. All but one procedure were completed under fluoroscopic guidance. In 6 (23%) patients, a long-term catheter was inserted. Conclusions: The EJV is an excellent option for central venous catheterization in children. The execution of simple maneuvers along with fluoroscopic assistance might allow for an improved success rate not only for short-term but also for long-term catheter insertion. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Purpose: Most groups have reported disappointing results with autoaugmentation or detrusor myectomy for low capacity/compliance neuropathic bladders. Failure may be due to an ischemic diverticulum or mucosal shrinkage. We investigated whether a Silimed (R) silicone balloon placed in the bladder after autoaugmentation could prevent these problems, improving surgical results. Materials and Methods: We compared the results of standard bladder autoaugmentation in 12 children (group 1) with those in 10 (group 2) who underwent the same surgery using a bladder conformer. The conformer was a silicone balloon filled with saline that remained in the bladder for 2 weeks. All patients had a neuropathic bladder with poor capacity and compliance, resulting in urinary leakage between catheterizations. Preoperative and postoperative evaluation included a voiding diary, ultrasound, voiding cystourethrogram and urodynamics. Results: In group 1 only 1 patient became dry, 4 had little improvement in continence, 4 remained unchanged and 3 became worse. In group 2, 6 patients (60%) become continent without medication, 2 (20%) become continent with oxybutynin and 2 remained unchanged. Bladder capacity and compliance did not change significantly in group 1. However, in group 2 capacity changed from a mean of 140 to 240 ml and mean +/- SD compliance increased from 15.6 +/- 16.8 to 34.3 +/- 22.8 ml/cm H(2)O (p = 0.02). Conclusions: The inflatable balloon improved our long-term results of bladder auto-augmentation. A larger series may be necessary to confirm procedure efficacy and safety.

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Organ transplant shortage is a global problem caused by several factors, most of which are related to members of the family, who play it major role in the donation process. Objective. We sought to determine the most determinant features in the donor profile that relate to positive decisions versus refusal of donation. Material and Methods. Fifty-six families who were approached by the Organ Procurement Organization (OPO) from November 2004 to April 2006 agreed to participate in this work. To assess donor profiles, we used it structured interview. Results. Parental involvement directly in decisions about donation lead to significantly less frequent consent (P = .005), young donor age was associated with a reduced probability of donation (P = .002), violent death negatively influenced donation consent, excluding suicide (P = .004). Conclusion. The present study showed violent death, young patient age, and parental donation consent to be the most important factors that make it harder to obtain consent organ donation. When a collateral relative (sibling/uncle) or children were responsible for the donation decision, there was more success of consent.

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PURPOSE: To evaluate retrospectively the midterm and long-term results of percutaneous endovascular treatment of venous outflow obstruction after pediatric liver transplantation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: During a 9-year period, 18 children with obstruction of a hepatic vein (HV) or inferior vena cava (IVC) anastomosis underwent percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) with balloon dilation or stent placement in case of PTA failure after liver transplantation. Patients` body weights ranged from 7.7 kg to 42.6 kg (mean, 18.8 kg +/- 9). Potential predictors of patency were compared between balloon dilation and stent placement groups. RESULTS: Forty-two procedures were performed (range, 1-11 per patient; mean, 2). Technical and initial clinical success were achieved in all cases. Major complications included one case of pulmonary artery stent embolization and one case of hemothorax. Three children (25%) with HV obstruction were treated with PTA and nine (75%) were treated with stent placement. Three children with IVC obstruction (75%) were treated with PTA and one (25%) was treated with a stent. There were two children with simultaneous obstruction at the HV and IVC; one was treated with PTA and the other with a stent. Cases of isolated HV stenosis have a higher probability of patency with balloon-expandable stent treatment compared with balloon dilation (P < .05). Follow-up time ranged from 7 days to 9 years (mean, 42 months +/- 31), and the primary assisted patency rate was 100% when stent placement was performed among the first three procedures. CONCLUSIONS: In cases of venous outflow obstruction resulting from HV and/or IVC lesions after pediatric liver transplantation, percutaneous endovascular treatment with balloon dilation or stent placement is a safe and effective alternative treatment that results in long-term patency.

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Background Airway bypass is a bronchoscopic lung-volume reduction procedure for emphysema whereby transbronchial passages into the lung are created to release trapped air, supported with paclitaxel-coated stents to ease the mechanics of breathing. The aim of the EASE (Exhale airway stents for emphysema) trial was to evaluate safety and efficacy of airway bypass in people with severe homogeneous emphysema. Methods We undertook a randomised, double-blind, sham-controlled study in 38 specialist respiratory centres worldwide. We recruited 315 patients who had severe hyperinflation (ratio of residual volume [RV] to total lung capacity of >= 0.65). By computer using a random number generator, we randomly allocated participants (in a 2:1 ratio) to either airway bypass (n=208) or sham control (107). We divided investigators into team A (masked), who completed pre-procedure and post-procedure assessments, and team B (unmasked), who only did bronchoscopies without further interaction with patients. Participants were followed up for 12 months. The 6-month co-primary efficacy endpoint required 12% or greater improvement in forced vital capacity (FVC) and 1 point or greater decrease in the modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea score from baseline. The composite primary safety endpoint incorporated five severe adverse events. We did Bayesian analysis to show the posterior probability that airway bypass was superior to sham control (success threshold, 0.965). Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00391612. Findings All recruited patients were included in the analysis. At 6 months, no difference between treatment arms was noted with respect to the co-primary efficacy endpoint (30 of 208 for airway bypass vs 12 of 107 for sham control; posterior probability 0.749, below the Bayesian success threshold of 0.965). The 6-month composite primary safety endpoint was 14.4% (30 of 208) for airway bypass versus 11.2% (12 of 107) for sham control (judged non-inferior, with a posterior probability of 1.00 [Bayesian success threshold >0.95]). Interpretation Although our findings showed safety and transient improvements, no sustainable benefit was recorded with airway bypass in patients with severe homogeneous emphysema.

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Fusarium infection is known to be potentially severe in immunocompromised patients, especially those with hematologic malignancies. Mortality rates are high and there are few therapeutic options, due to the severe underlying condition of this group of patients and the relative resistance Of Fusarium to conventional antifungal therapy. Voriconazole has been shown to be an effective antifungal agent for neutropenic patients with fusariosis that are refractory or unresponsive to amphotericin B, We report the successful treatment of disseminated Fusarium infection in an immunocompromised host.

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PURPOSE. To assess whether baseline Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS; HRT-3; Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany) results are predictive of progression in patients with suspected glaucoma. The GPS is a new feature of the confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope that generates an operator-independent, three-dimensional model of the optic nerve head and gives a score for the probability that this model is consistent with glaucomatous damage. METHODS. The study included 223 patients with suspected glaucoma during an average follow-up of 63.3 months. Included subjects had a suspect optic disc appearance and/or elevated intraocular pressure, but normal visual fields. Conversion was defined as development of either repeatable abnormal visual fields or glaucomatous deterioration in the appearance of the optic disc during the study period. The association between baseline GPS and conversion was investigated by Cox regression models. RESULTS. Fifty-four (24.2%) eyes converted. In multivariate models, both higher values of GPS global and subjective stereophotograph assessment ( larger cup-disc ratio and glaucomatous grading) were predictive of conversion: adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI): 1.31 (1.15 - 1.50) per 0.1 higher global GPS, 1.34 (1.12 - 1.62) per 0.1 higher CDR, and 2.34 (1.22 - 4.47) for abnormal grading, respectively. No significant differences ( P > 0.05 for all comparisons) were found between the c-index values ( equivalent to area under ROC curve) for the multivariate models (0.732, 0.705, and 0.699, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. GPS values were predictive of conversion in our population of patients with suspected glaucoma. Further, they performed as well as subjective assessment of the optic disc. These results suggest that GPS could potentially replace stereophotograph as a tool for estimating the likelihood of conversion to glaucoma.