Using non-homogeneous Poisson models with multiple change-points to estimate the number of ozone exceedances in Mexico City

In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating the number of ozone peaks in Mexico City using a non-homogeneous Poisson model

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the number of times an air quality standard is exceeded in a given period of time. A non-homogeneous Poisson model is proposed to analyse this issue. The rate at which the Poisson events occur is given by a rate function lambda(t), t >= 0. This rate function also depends on some parameters that need to be estimated. Two forms of lambda(t), t >= 0 are considered. One of them is of the Weibull form and the other is of the exponentiated-Weibull form. The parameters estimation is made using a Bayesian formulation based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm. The assignation of the prior distributions for the parameters is made in two stages. In the first stage, non-informative prior distributions are considered. Using the information provided by the first stage, more informative prior distributions are used in the second one. The theoretical development is applied to data provided by the monitoring network of Mexico City. The rate function that best fit the data varies according to the region of the city and/or threshold that is considered. In some cases the best fit is the Weibull form and in other cases the best option is the exponentiated-Weibull. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reliability assessment of Cobb angle measurements using manual and digital methods

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: The vertebral spine angle in the frontal plane is an important parameter in the assessment of scoliosis and may be obtained from panoramic X-ray images. Technological advances have allowed for an increased use of digital X-ray images in clinical practice. PURPOSE: In this context, the objective of this study is to assess the reliability of computer-assisted Cobb angle measurements taken from digital X-ray images. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: Clinical investigation quantifying scoliotic deformity with Cobb method to evaluate the intra- and interobserver variability using manual and digital techniques. PATIENT SAMPLE: Forty-nine patients diagnosed with idiopathic scoliosis were chosen based on convenience, without predilection for gender, age, type, location, or magnitude of the curvature. OUTCOME MEASURES: Images were examined to evaluate Cobb angle variability, end plate selection, as well as intra- and interobserver errors. METHODS: Specific software was developed to digitally reproduce the Cobb method and calculate semiautomatically the degree of scoliotic deformity. During the study, three observers estimated the Cobb angle using both the digital and the traditional manual methods. RESULTS: The results showed that Cobb angle measurements may be reproduced in the computer as reliably as with the traditional manual method, in similar conditions to those found in clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: The computer-assisted method (digital method) is clinically advantageous and appropriate to assess the scoliotic curvature in the frontal plane using Cobb method. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validity and reliability of a computer method to estimate vertebral axial rotation from digital radiographs

Axial vertebral rotation, an important parameter in the assessment of scoliosis may be identified on X-ray images. In line with the advances in the field of digital radiography, hospitals have been increasingly using this technique. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the reliability of computer-processed rotation measurements obtained from digital radiographs. A software program was therefore developed, which is able to digitally reproduce the methods of Perdriolle and Raimondi and to calculate semi-automatically the rotation degree of vertebra on digital radiographs. Three independent observers estimated vertebral rotation employing both the digital and the traditional manual methods. Compared to the traditional method, the digital assessment showed a 43% smaller error and a stronger correlation. In conclusion, the digital method seems to be reliable and enhance the accuracy and precision of vertebral rotation measurements.

Software maintenance project delays prediction using Bayesian Networks

Managing software maintenance is rarely a precise task due to uncertainties concerned with resources and services descriptions. Even when a well-established maintenance process is followed, the risk of delaying tasks remains if the new services are not precisely described or when resources change during process execution. Also, the delay of a task at an early process stage may represent a different delay at the end of the process, depending on complexity or services reliability requirements. This paper presents a knowledge-based representation (Bayesian Networks) for maintenance project delays based on specialists experience and a corresponding tool to help in managing software maintenance projects. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability Nonparametric Bayesian Estimation in Parallel Systems

Relevant results for (sub-)distribution functions related to parallel systems are discussed. The reverse hazard rate is defined using the product integral. Consequently, the restriction of absolute continuity for the involved distributions can be relaxed. The only restriction is that the sets of discontinuity points of the parallel distributions have to be disjointed. Nonparametric Bayesian estimators of all survival (sub-)distribution functions are derived. Dual to the series systems that use minimum life times as observations, the parallel systems record the maximum life times. Dirichlet multivariate processes forming a class of prior distributions are considered for the nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the component distribution functions, and the system reliability. For illustration, two striking numerical examples are presented.

Validity and reliability of methods for the detection of secondary caries around amalgam restorations in primary teeth

Secondary caries has been reported as the main reason for restoration replacement. The aim of this in vitro study was to evaluate the performance of different methods - visual inspection, laser fluorescence (DIAGNOdent), radiography and tactile examination - for secondary caries detection in primary molars restored with amalgam. Fifty-four primary molars were photographed and 73 suspect sites adjacent to amalgam restorations were selected. Two examiners evaluated independently these sites using all methods. Agreement between examiners was assessed by the Kappa test. To validate the methods, a caries-detector dye was used after restoration removal. The best cut-off points for the sample were found by a Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the area under the ROC curve (Az), and the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the methods were calculated for enamel (D2) and dentine (D3) thresholds. These parameters were found for each method and then compared by the McNemar test. The tactile examination and visual inspection presented the highest inter-examiner agreement for the D2 and D3 thresholds, respectively. The visual inspection also showed better performance than the other methods for both thresholds (Az = 0.861 and Az = 0.841, respectively). In conclusion, the visual inspection presented the best performance for detecting enamel and dentin secondary caries in primary teeth restored with amalgam.

Reliability and discriminatory power of methods for dental plaque quantification

OBJECTIVE: This in situ study evaluated the discriminatory power and reliability of methods of dental plaque quantification and the relationship between visual indices (VI) and fluorescence camera (FC) to detect plaque. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Six volunteers used palatal appliances with six bovine enamel blocks presenting different stages of plaque accumulation. The presence of plaque with and without disclosing was assessed using VI. Images were obtained with FC and digital camera in both conditions. The area covered by plaque was assessed. Examinations were done by two independent examiners. Data were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis and Kappa tests to compare different conditions of samples and to assess the inter-examiner reproducibility. RESULTS: Some methods presented adequate reproducibility. The Turesky index and the assessment of area covered by disclosed plaque in the FC images presented the highest discriminatory powers. CONCLUSION: The Turesky index and images with FC with disclosing present good reliability and discriminatory power in quantifying dental plaque.

Validity and reliability of the Structured Clinical Interview for Mood Spectrum: Brazilian version (SCIMOODS-VB)

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to translate the Structured Clinical Interview for Mood Spectrum into Brazilian Portuguese, measuring its reliability, validity, and defining scores for bipolar disorders. METHOD: Questionnaire was translated (into Brazilian Portuguese) and back-translated into English. Sample consisted of 47 subjects with bipolar disorder, 47 with major depressive disorder, 18 with schizophrenia and 22 controls. Inter-rater reliability was tested in 20 subjects with bipolar disorder and MDD. Internal consistency was measured using the Kuder Richardson formula. Forward stepwise discriminant analysis was performed. Scores were compared between groups; manic (M), depressive (D) and total (T) threshold scores were calculated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: Kuder Richardson coefficients were between 0.86 and 0.94. Intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.96 (CI 95 % 0.93-0.97). Subjects with bipolar disorder had higher M and T, and similar D scores, when compared to major depressive disorder (ANOVA, p < 0.001). The sub-domains that best discriminated unipolar and bipolar subjects were manic energy and manic mood. M had the best area under the curve (0.909), and values of M equal to or greater than 30 yielded 91.5% sensitivity and 74.5% specificity. CONCLUSION: Structured Clinical Interview for Mood Spectrum has good reliability and validity. Cut-off of 30 best differentiates subjects with bipolar disorder vs. unipolar depression. A cutoff score of 30 or higher in the mania sub-domain is appropriate to help make a distinction between subjects with bipolar disorder and those with unipolar depression.

Reproducibility, reliability and validity of measurements obtained from Cecile3 digital models

The aim of this study was to determine the reproducibility, reliability and validity of measurements in digital models compared to plaster models. Fifteen pairs of plaster models were obtained from orthodontic patients with permanent dentition before treatment. These were digitized to be evaluated with the program Cécile3 v2.554.2 beta. Two examiners measured three times the mesiodistal width of all the teeth present, intercanine, interpremolar and intermolar distances, overjet and overbite. The plaster models were measured using a digital vernier. The t-Student test for paired samples and interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were used for statistical analysis. The ICC of the digital models were 0.84 ± 0.15 (intra-examiner) and 0.80 ± 0.19 (inter-examiner). The average mean difference of the digital models was 0.23 ± 0.14 and 0.24 ± 0.11 for each examiner, respectively. When the two types of measurements were compared, the values obtained from the digital models were lower than those obtained from the plaster models (p < 0.05), although the differences were considered clinically insignificant (differences < 0.1 mm). The Cécile digital models are a clinically acceptable alternative for use in Orthodontics.

Cross-cultural adaptation, validation and reliability of the Body Area Scale for Brazilian adolescents

The aim of this study was to translate, validate and verify the reliability of the Body Area Scale (BAS). Participants were 386 teenagers, enrolled in a private school. Translation into Portuguese was conducted. The instrument was evaluated for internal consistency and construct validation analysis. Reproducibility was evaluated using the Wilcoxon test and the coefficient of interclass correlation. The BAS demonstrated good values for internal consistency (0.90 and 0.88) and was able to discriminate boys and girls according to nutritional state (p = 0.020 and p = 0.026, respectively). BAS scores correlated with adolescents' BMI (r = 0.14, p = 0.055; r = 0.23, p = 0.001) and WC (r =0.13, p = 0.083; r = 0.22, 0.002). Reliability was confirmed by the coefficient of inter-class correlation (0.35, p < 0.001; 0.60, p < 0.001) for boys and girls, respectively. The instrument performed well in terms of understanding and time of completion. BAS was successfully translated into Portuguese and presented good validity when applied to adolescents.

A study of the validity and reliability of the Brazilian version of the Body Shape Questionnaire (BSQ) among adolescents

OBJECTIVES: to produce evidence of the validity and reliability of the Body Shape Questionnaire (BSQ) - a tool for measuring an individual's attitude towards his or her body image. METHODS: the study covered 386 young people of both sexes aged between 10 and 18 from a private school and used self-applied questionnaires and anthropometric evaluation. It evaluated the internal consistency, the discriminant validity for differences from the means, according to nutritional status (underweight, eutrophic, overweight and obese), the concurrent validity by way of Spearman's correlation coefficient between the scale and the Body Mass Index (BMI), the waist-hip circumference ratio (WHR) and the waist circumference (WC). Reliability was tested using Wilcoxon's Test, the intraclass correlation coefficient and the Bland-Altman figures. RESULTS: the BSQ displayed good internal consistency (±=0.96) and was capable of discriminating among the total population, boys and girls, according to nutritional status (p<0.001). It correlated with the BMI (r=0.41; p<0.001), WHR (r=-0.10; p=0.043) and WC (r=0.24; p<0.001) and its reliability was confirmed by intraclass correlation (r=0.91; p<0.001) for the total population. The questionnaire was easy to understand and could be completed quickly. CONCLUSIONS: the BSQ presented good results, thereby providing evidence of its validity and reliability. It is therefore recommended for evaluation of body image attitudes among adolescents.

Validity and reliability of self-reported weight and height measures for the diagnoses of adolescent's nutritional status

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a validade do peso, estatura e Índice de Massa Corporal (IMC) referidos e sua confiabilidade para o diagnóstico do estado nutricional de adolescentes de Piracicaba. MÉTODOS: Participaram do estudo 360 adolescentes de ambos os sexos, de escolas públicas de Piracicaba, com idade entre 10 e 15 anos. Os adolescentes auto-relataram seu peso e estatura, sendo esses valores obtidos por medidas diretas, logo em seguida, pelos entrevistadores. A validade do IMC referido foi calculada segundo índices de sensibilidade, especificidade e valor preditivo positivo (VPP). Avaliou-se a concordância entre as categorias de IMC obtido por meio das medidas referidas e aferidas a partir do coeficiente kappa ponderado, coeficiente de correlação de Lin. e gráficos de Bland e Altman e Lin. RESULTADOS: Verificou-se que tanto os meninos quanto as meninas subestimaram o peso (-1,0 meninas e meninos) e a estatura (meninas -1,2 e meninos -0,8) (p < 0,001). Os valores de IMC aferidos e referidos apresentaram uma concordância moderada. A sensibilidade do IMC referido para classificar os indivíduos obesos foi maior para os meninos (87,5%), enquanto a especificidade foi maior para as meninas (92,7%). O VPP foi elevado somente para a classificação da eutrofia. CONCLUSÕES: As medidas referidas de peso e estatura de adolescentes não representam medidas válidas e, portanto, não devem ser usadas em substituição aos valores mensurados. Além disso, verificou-se que 10% dos meninos obesos e 40% das meninas obesas poderiam permanecer não identificados utilizando-se as medidas auto-referidas, confirmando a baixa validade das medidas auto-referidas.

A simple procedure for reliability assessment of thin composite plates against buckling

In some circumstances ice floes may be modeled as beams. In general this modeling supposes constant thickness, which contradicts field observations. Action of currents, wind and the sequence of contacts, causes thickness to vary. Here this effect is taken into consideration on the modeling of the behavior of ice hitting inclined walls of offshore platforms. For this purpose, the boundary value problem is first equated. The set of equations so obtained is then transformed into a system of equations, that is then solved numerically. For this sake an implicit solution is developed, using a shooting method, with the accompanying Jacobian. In-plane coupling and the dependency of the boundary terms on deformation, make the problem non-linear and the development particular. Deformation and internal resultants are then computed for harmonic forms of beam profile. Forms of giving some additional generality to the problem are discussed.

Systematic Management of Variability in UML-based Software Product Lines

This paper presents SMarty, a variability management approach for UML-based software product lines (PL). SMarty is supported by a UML profile, the SMartyProfile, and a process for managing variabilities, the SMartyProcess. SMartyProfile aims at representing variabilities, variation points, and variants in UML models by applying a set of stereotypes. SMartyProcess consists of a set of activities that is systematically executed to trace, identify, and control variabilities in a PL based on SMarty. It also identifies variability implementation mechanisms and analyzes specific product configurations. In addition, a more comprehensive application of SMarty is presented using SEI's Arcade Game Maker PL. An evaluation of SMarty and related work are discussed.