Population-Based Multicentric Survey of Hepatitis B Infection and Risk Factor Differences among Three Regions in Brazil

This multicentric population-based study in Brazil is the first national effort to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis B (HBV) and risk factors in the capital cities of the Northeast. Central-West, and Federal Districts (2004-2005). Random multistage cluster sampling was used to select persons 13-69 years of age. Markers for HBV were tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The HBV genotypes were determined by sequencing hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Multivariate analyses and simple catalytic model were performed. Overall. 7,881 persons were inculded < 70% were not vaccinated. Positivity for HBsAg was less than 1% among non-vaccinated persons and genotypes A, D, and F co-circulated. The incidence of infection increased with age with similar force of infection in all regions. Males and persons having initiated sexual activity were associated with HBV infection in the two settings: healthcare jobs and prior hospitalization were risk factors in the Federal District. Our survey classified these regions as areas with HBV endemicity and highlighted the risk factors differences among the settings.

Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Drainage Basins through a Multivariate Analysis within a GIS-Based Model

This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

Risk factors for dengue virus infection in rural Amazonia: Population-based cross-sectional surveys

A comparison of dengue virus (DENV) antibody levels in paired serum samples collected from predominantly DENV-naive residents in an agricultural settlement in Brazilian Amazonia (baseline seroprevalence, 18.3%) showed a seroconversion rate of 3.67 episodes/100 person-years at risk during 12 months of follow-up. Multivariate analysis identified male sex, poverty, and migration from extra-Amazonian states as significant predictors of baseline DENY seropositivity, whereas male sex, a history of clinical diagnosis of dengue fever, and travel to an urban area predicted subsequent seroconversion. The laboratory surveillance of acute febrile illnesses implemented at the study site and in a nearby town between 2004 and 2006 confirmed 11. DENV infections among 102 episodes studied with DENV IgM detection, reverse transcriptase-polymerise chain reaction, and virus isolation; DENV-3 was isolated. Because DENV exposure is associated with migration or travel, personal protection measures when visiting high-risk urban areas may reduce the incidence of DENV infection in this rural population.

A Community-based Survey of Human Toxoplasmosis in Rural Amazonia: Seroprevalence, Seroconversion Rate, and Associated Risk Factors

IgG antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii were detected in, March-April 2004, in 65.8% (95% confidence interval, 60.8-70.8%) of 342 systematically sampled subjects 5-90 years of age (87.5% of the eligible) living in a rural settlement in Amazonia, with a seroconversion rate of 9% over I year of follow-up of 99 seronegative subjects. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified age as the only significant independent predictor of seropositivity at the baseline. Each additional year of age increases the odds of being seropositive by 6%, and 76.8% of the subjects are expected to be seropositive at 30 years of age. A single high-prevalence spatial cluster, comprising 11.9% of the seropositive subjects, was detected in the area; households in the cluster were less likely to have dogs as pets and their heads had a lower education level, when compared with households located outside the cluster. The challenges for preventing human toxoplasmosis in tropical rural settings are discussed.

Software maintenance project delays prediction using Bayesian Networks

Managing software maintenance is rarely a precise task due to uncertainties concerned with resources and services descriptions. Even when a well-established maintenance process is followed, the risk of delaying tasks remains if the new services are not precisely described or when resources change during process execution. Also, the delay of a task at an early process stage may represent a different delay at the end of the process, depending on complexity or services reliability requirements. This paper presents a knowledge-based representation (Bayesian Networks) for maintenance project delays based on specialists experience and a corresponding tool to help in managing software maintenance projects. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.