The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e. g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.

Prospective randomized trial of EUS versus ERCP-guided common bile duct stone removal: an interim report (with video)

Background: EUS is being increasingly utilized for the diagnosis of choledocholithiasis and microlithiasis, especially in patients with biliary colic. Simultaneously, there is also a rising interest in the use of EUS for therapeutic interventions. Objectives: Our goal was to assess the effectiveness of EUS-directed common bile duct (CBD) stone removal to compare its safety and effectiveness with ERCP-directed intervention. Design: interim results of a prospective, randomized, single-center blinded clinical trial. Setting: A single tertiary care referral center. Patients: Fifty-two patients with uncomplicated CBD stones were prospectively randomized to CBD cannulation and stone removal under EUS or ERCP guidance. Main Outcome Measurements and Interventions: Primary outcome measure was the rate of successful cannulation of the CBD. Secondary Outcome measures included Successful removal of stones and overall complication rates. Results: CBD cannulation followed by stone extraction was successful in 23 of 26 patients (88.5%) in the EUS group (1) versus 25 of 26 patients (96.2%) in the ERCP group (11) (95% CI, -27.65%, 9.88%). Overall, there were 3 complications in the EUS group and 4 complications in the ERCP group. Limitation: The current study is an interim report from a single center report and performed by a single operator. Conclusions: Our preliminary analysis indicates that Outcomes following EUS-guided CBD stone retrieval are equivalent to those following ERCP EUS-related adverse events are similar to those following ERCP. ERCP and EUS-guided stone retrieval appears to be equally effective for therapeutic interventions of the bile duct. Additional studies are required to validate these preliminary results and to determine predictors of success of EUS-guided stone removal. (Gastrointest Endosc 2009;69:238-43.)

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.

Nominal versus indexed debt: A quantitative horse race

The main arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debts are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortion, government outlays uncertainty, and contingent-debt service. Our framework also recognizes that contingent debt can be associated with incentive problems and lack of commitment. Thus, the benefits of unexpected inflation are tempered by higher interest rates. We obtain that costs from inflation more than offset the benefits from reducing tax distortions. We further discuss sustainability of nominal debt in developing (volatile) countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Financial leverage and tangibility of assets of Brazilian companies of agribusiness in the post-real plan period

This paper aims to study the relationship between the debt level and the asset structure of Brazilian companies of the agribusiness sector, since it is considered a current and relevant discussion: to evaluate the mechanisms for fund-raising and guarantees. The methodology of Granger`s Causality test and Autoregressive Vectors was used to conduct a comparative analysis, applied to a financial database of companies with open capital of Brazilian agribusiness, in particular the agricultural sector and Fisheries and Food and Beverages in a period of 10 years (1997-2007) from quarterly series available in the database of Economatica(R). The results demonstrated that changes in leverage generate variations in the tangibility of the companies, a fact that can be explained by the large search of funding secured by fiduciary transfer of fixed assets, which facilitates access to credit by business of the Agribusiness sector, increasing the payment time and lowering interest rates.

Agribusiness Opportunity Costs and Environmental Legal Protection: Investigating Trade-Off on Hotspot Preservation in the State of So Paulo, Brazil

Prior to deforestation, So Paulo State had 79,000 km(2) covered by Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) physiognomies, but today less than 8.5% of this biodiversity hotspot remains, mostly in private lands. The global demand for agricultural goods has imposed strong pressure on natural areas, and the economic decisions of agribusiness managers are crucial to the fate of Cerrado domain remaining areas (CDRA) in Brazil. Our aim was to investigate the effectiveness of Brazilian private protected areas policy, and to propose a feasible alternative to promote CDRA protection. This article assessed the main agribusiness opportunity costs for natural areas preservation: the land use profitability and the arable land price. The CDRA percentage and the opportunity costs were estimated for 349 municipal districts of So Paulo State through secondary spatial data and profitability values of 38 main agricultural products. We found that Brazilian private protected areas policy fails to preserve CDRA, although the values of non-compliance fines were higher than average opportunity costs. The scenario with very restrictive laws on private protected areas and historical high interest rates allowed us to conceive a feasible cross compliance proposal to improve environmental and agricultural policies.

Simplified Mathematical Model for an Anaerobic Sequencing Batch Biofilm Reactor Treating Lipid-Rich Wastewater Subject to Rising Organic Loading Rates

This study proposes a simplified mathematical model to describe the processes occurring in an anaerobic sequencing batch biofilm reactor (ASBBR) treating lipid-rich wastewater. The reactor, subjected to rising organic loading rates, contained biomass immobilized cubic polyurethane foam matrices, and was operated at 32 degrees C +/- 2 degrees C, using 24-h batch cycles. In the adaptation period, the reactor was fed with synthetic substrate for 46 days and was operated without agitation. Whereas agitation was raised to 500 rpm, the organic loading rate (OLR) rose from 0.3 g chemical oxygen demand (COD) . L(-1) . day(-1) to 1.2 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1). The ASBBR was fed fat-rich wastewater (dairy wastewater), in an operation period lasting for 116 days, during which four operational conditions (OCs) were tested: 1.1 +/- 0.2 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC1), 4.5 +/- 0.4 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC2), 8.0 +/- 0.8 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC3), and 12.1 +/- 2.4 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC4). The bicarbonate alkalinity (BA)/COD supplementation ratio was 1:1 at OC1, 1:2 at OC2, and 1:3 at OC3 and OC4. Total COD removal efficiencies were higher than 90%, with a constant production of bicarbonate alkalinity, in all OCs tested. After the process reached stability, temporal profiles of substrate consumption were obtained. Based on these experimental data a simplified first-order model was fit, making possible the inference of kinetic parameters. A simplified mathematical model correlating soluble COD with volatile fatty acids (VFA) was also proposed, and through it the consumption rates of intermediate products as propionic and acetic acid were inferred. Results showed that the microbial consortium worked properly and high efficiencies were obtained, even with high initial substrate concentrations, which led to the accumulation of intermediate metabolites and caused low specific consumption rates.

An empirical evaluation of imputation accuracy for association statistics reveals increased type-I error rates in genome-wide associations

Background: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) are becoming the approach of choice to identify genetic determinants of complex phenotypes and common diseases. The astonishing amount of generated data and the use of distinct genotyping platforms with variable genomic coverage are still analytical challenges. Imputation algorithms combine directly genotyped markers information with haplotypic structure for the population of interest for the inference of a badly genotyped or missing marker and are considered a near zero cost approach to allow the comparison and combination of data generated in different studies. Several reports stated that imputed markers have an overall acceptable accuracy but no published report has performed a pair wise comparison of imputed and empiric association statistics of a complete set of GWAS markers. Results: In this report we identified a total of 73 imputed markers that yielded a nominally statistically significant association at P < 10(-5) for type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and compared them with results obtained based on empirical allelic frequencies. Interestingly, despite their overall high correlation, association statistics based on imputed frequencies were discordant in 35 of the 73 (47%) associated markers, considerably inflating the type I error rate of imputed markers. We comprehensively tested several quality thresholds, the haplotypic structure underlying imputed markers and the use of flanking markers as predictors of inaccurate association statistics derived from imputed markers. Conclusions: Our results suggest that association statistics from imputed markers showing specific MAF (Minor Allele Frequencies) range, located in weak linkage disequilibrium blocks or strongly deviating from local patterns of association are prone to have inflated false positive association signals. The present study highlights the potential of imputation procedures and proposes simple procedures for selecting the best imputed markers for follow-up genotyping studies.

Acidification rates of probiotic bacteria in Minas frescal cheese whey

The acidification rates of Lactobacillus delbrueckii subsp. bulgarieus (Lb), Lactobacillus acidophilus (La), Lactobacillus rhamnosus (Lr), and Bifidobacterium animalis subsp. lactis (Bl) in co-culture with Streptococcus thermophilus (St) were studied in Minas frescal cheese whey. Effects of the co-culture composition and the final pH values on the kinetic parameters of acidification, post-acidification and counts of health promoting micro-organisms were also studied. Fermentation time to reach pH 4.5 was longer when St-Lr co-culture was used, while St-Lb had the shortest fermentation time when compared with the other co-culture combinations. All products showed development of acidity during the storage period and lowest values had been observed employing St-Bl co-culture. The technological interest of using M. frescal cheese whey for the production of a probiotic lactic beverage is discussed in this article. (C) 2007 Swiss Society of Food Science and Technology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life history, morphological variability and growth rates of the life phases of Gracilaria tenuistipitata (Rhodophyta: Gracilariales) in vitro

Gracilaria tenuistipitata, a species of commercial interest, is becoming a model organism for studies on red algal physiology and molecular biology as it can be grown easily in vitro under a broad range of conditions. Most of the experiments carried out around the world have been based on a tetrasporophytic clone isolated in our laboratory from a specimen collected in China. Here we describe the life history of this species, give anatomic details of the reproductive structures, illustrate the morphological variability of tetraspore progeny and compare the growth rate of gametophytic and sporophytic thalli. Tetrasporophytic branches showed higher growth rates than gametophytic branches.

Melatonin in maturation media fails to improve oocyte maturation, embryo development rates and DNA damage of bovine embryos

Melatonin (MEL) acts as a powerful scavenger of free radicals and direct gonadal responses to melatonin have been reported in the literature. Few studies, however, have evaluated the effect of MEL during in vitro maturation (IVM) on bovine embryos. This study tested the addition of MEL to maturation medium (MM) with no gonadotropins on nuclear maturation and embryo development rates and the incidence of DNA damage in resulting embryos. Cumulus-oocyte complexes were aspirated from abattoir ovaries and cultured in MM (TCM-199 medium supplemented with 10% fetal calf serum - FCS) at 39ºC and 5% CO2 in air. After 24 hours of culture in MM with 0.5 µg mL-1 FSH and 5.0 µg mL-1 LH; 10-9 M MEL) or 10-9 M MEL, 0.5 µg mL-1 FSH and 5.0 µg mL-1 LH, the oocytes were stained with Hoechst 33342 to evaluate nuclear maturation rate. After in vitro fertilization and embryo culture, development rates were evaluated and the blastocysts were assessed for DNA damage by Comet assay. There was no effect of melatonin added to the MM, alone or in combination with gonadotropins, on nuclear maturation, cleavage and blastocyst rates. These rates ranged between 88% to 90%, 85% to 88% and 42% to 46%, respectively. The extent of DNA damage in embryos was also not affected by MEL supplementation during IVM. The addition of 10-9 M MEL to the MM failed to improve nuclear maturation and embryo development rates and the incidence of DNA damage in resulting embryos, but was able to properly substitute for gonadotropins during IVM.

Análise da pozolanicidade da cinza da casca da castanha do caju pelo método de difratometria de raios X

Atualmente, o aproveitamento de resíduos na construção civil tem sido estimulado, uma vez que esse setor apresenta-se como um dos maiores consumidores de materiais naturais em seus processos e produtos. As cinzas ocupam lugar de destaque entre os resíduos agroindustriais por resultarem de processos de geração de energia. Grande parte dessas cinzas possui atividade pozolânica, podendo ser utilizada como substituto parcial do cimento Portland, resultando numa economia significativa de energia e custo. Este trabalho faz parte de uma pesquisa mais ampla, a qual busca avaliar a viabilidade técnica da cinza da casca da castanha de caju (CCCC) como adição mineral em matrizes de cimento Portland, como também, propor uma metodologia de análise de cinzas agroindustriais. Aplicou-se a técnica de difratometria de raios X para avaliar a reatividade do hidróxido de cálcio pela cinza da casca da castanha de caju em pastas, empregaram-se teores de substituição entre 2,5 e 30,0% e os difratogramas das pastas foram comparados com os das pastas confeccionadas com sílica ativa, executados sobre as mesmas condições de ensaio. Os resultados apontam para a ausência de reatividade pozolânica da CCCC com o cimento Portland.

Deleterious effect of TRIS buffer on growth rates and pigment content of Gracilaria birdiae Plastino & E.C. Oliveira (Gracilariales, Rhodophyta)

This work evaluated the effects of Tris (hydroxymethyl)-aminomethane (TRIS) buffer and its interaction with nutrient concentration on the development of Gracilaria birdie, a common species on the Brazilian coast that has been exploited for agar production. Responses to different conditions were assessed through growth rates and pigment content (chlorophyll a, phycoerythrin, phycocyanin and allophycocyanin). Provasoli's nutrient solution with and without TRIS addition was tested at concentrations of 12.5, 25 and 50%. The pH was also monitored. G. birdiae grew better in the absence of TRIS and at low nutrient concentrations, 12.5 and 25% (growth rates of 10.8-11.3%.day-1). Higher contents of phycoerythrin and chlorophyll a were observed without TRIS at 12.5 and 25% (Phycoerythrin, 649.6-698.0 μg g-1 fresh biomass; Chlorophyll a, 156.0-168.6 μg g-1 fresh biomass). These findings highlight the deleterious effect of TRIS on growth and phycoerythrin and chlorophyll a content. They also demonstrate the importance of appropriate nutrient concentration for laboratory cultures, depending on the intrinsic characteristics of each species.

Effects of temperature and salinity on the survival rates of coxicerberus ramosae (Albuquerque, 1978), an interstitial isopod of a Sandy Beach on the coast of Brazil

The tolerance to the combined effects of temperature and salinity was investigated in the interstitial isopod Coxicerberus ramosae (Albuquerque, 1978), a species of intertidal zone of sandy beaches in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The animals were collected on Praia Vermelha Beach. The experiments lasted 24 h and nine salinities and seven temperatures were used for a total of 63 combinations. Thirty animals were tested in each combination. The species showed high survival in most of the combinations. The temperature of 35 ºC was lethal and at 5 ºC, the animals tolerated only a narrow range of salinities. The statistical analyses showed that the effects of temperature and salinity were significant on the survival, which confirmed the euryhalinity and eurythermy of this species.