Predictability Analysis of Voice Signals Analyzing Healthy and Pathologic Samples

Research Foundation of the State of Sao Paulo (FAPESP)

Self-organized criticality and the predictability of human behavior

The behavior of normal individuals and psychiatric patients vary in a similar way following power laws. The presence of identical patterns of behavioral variation occurring in individuals with different levels of activity is suggestive of self-similarity phenomena. Based on these findings, we propose that the human behavior in social context can constitute a system exhibiting self-organized criticality (SOC). The introduction of SOC concept in psychological theories can help to approach the question of behavior predictability by taking into consideration their intrinsic stochastic character. Also, the ceteris paribus generalizations characteristic of psychological laws can be seen as a consequence of individual level description of a more complex collective phenomena. Although limited, this study suggests that, if an adequate level of description is adopted, the complexity of human behavior can be more easily approached and their individual and social components can be more realistically modeled. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

Effects of intensity and positional predictability of a visual stimulus on simple reaction time

The influence of visual stimuli intensity on manual reaction time (RT) was investigated under two different attentional settings: high (Experiment 1) and low (Experiment 2) stimulus location predictability. These two experiments were also run under both binocular and monocular viewing conditions. We observed that RT decreased as stimulus intensity increased. It also decreased as the viewing condition was changed from monocular to binocular as well as the location predictability shifted from low to high. A significant interaction was found between stimulus intensity and viewing condition, but no interaction was observed between neither of these factors and location predictability. These findings support the idea that the stimulus intensity effect arises from purely sensory, pre-attentive mechanisms rather than deriving from more efficient attentional capture. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relation between action, predictability and temporal contiguity in temporal binding

Previous studies have documented a subjective temporal attraction between actions and their effects. This finding, named intentional binding, is thought to be the result of a cognitive function that links actions to their consequences. Although several studies have tried to outline the necessary and sufficient conditions for intentional binding, a quantitative comparison between the roles of temporal contiguity, predictability and voluntary action and the evaluation of their interactions is difficult due to the high variability of the temporal binding measurements. In the present study, we used a novel methodology to investigate the properties of intentional binding. Subjects judged whether an auditory stimulus, which could either be triggered by a voluntary finger lift or be presented after a visual temporal marker unrelated to any action, was presented synchronously with a reference stimulus. In three experiments, the predictability, the interval between action and consequence and the presence of action itself were manipulated. The results indicate that (1) action is a necessary condition for temporal binding; (2) a fixed interval between the two events is not sufficient to cause the effect and (3) only in the presence of voluntary action do temporal predictability and contiguity play a significant role in modulating the effect.These findings are discussed in the context of the relationship between intentional binding and temporal expectation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring time series predictability using support vector regression

Most studies involving statistical time series analysis rely on assumptions of linearity, which by its simplicity facilitates parameter interpretation and estimation. However, the linearity assumption may be too restrictive for many practical applications. The implementation of nonlinear models in time series analysis involves the estimation of a large set of parameters, frequently leading to overfitting problems. In this article, a predictability coefficient is estimated using a combination of nonlinear autoregressive models and the use of support vector regression in this model is explored. We illustrate the usefulness and interpretability of results by using electroencephalographic records of an epileptic patient.

Surface and subterranean ichthyofauna in the Serra do Ramalho karst area, northeastern Brazil, with updated lists of Brazilian troglobitic and troglophilic fishes

After an ichthyofaunistic survey in several epigean (surface) water bodies of the Serra do Ramalho, southern Bahia, conducted in May 2007, 44 species were recorded; in addition, three non-troglomorphic (normally eyed and pigmented) and two troglomorphic species were recorded only in caves, totaling 49 species of fishes for the area, which represents a little more than one fourth of the total registered in the literature for the entire Rio São Francisco basin. In these caves, which have been studied since 2005, eight non-troglomorphic species were sampled and their presence in both epigean and subterranean habitats, associated to the lack of morphological differences, indicate that they may be either troglophiles (species encompassing individuals able to live and complete their life cycle either in the surface or in the subterranean environment), trogloxenes (individuals regularly found in subterranean habitats, but which must return periodically to the surface in order to complete their life cycle) or even accidental in caves. In addition, two troglomorphic species (with reduced eyes and melanic pigmentation when compared to close epigean relatives), belonging respectively to the genera Rhamdia and Trichomycterus, were recorded exclusively in caves, thus classified as troglobites. Interestingly, no epigean representative of the genus Trichomycterus was collected. The new data are integrated into updated lists of Brazilian troglobitic and troglophilic fishes, based on published data and new records recently confirmed.

Culex quinquefasciatus vitellogenesis: morphological and biochemical aspects

The vitellogenic process in Culex quinquefasciatus, which is triggered by a blood meal, involves the synthesis, distribution and storage of the nutrients necessary for embryo development. The fat body of an adult female Cx. quinquefasciatus revealed two cell types: large trophocytes and small, eosinophilic, "oenocyte-like" cells, which show no morphological changes throughout the gonotrophic cycle. Trophocytes, which only begin to synthesise vitellogenin (Vg) 12 h post-blood meal (PBM), undergo a series of morphological changes following engorgement. These changes include the expansion of the rough endoplasmic reticulum (RER) and Golgi complex, which are later destroyed by autophagosomes. At 84 h PBM, trophocytes return to their pre-engorgement morphology. The ovarian follicles of non-blood-fed Cx. quinquefasciatus contain a cluster of eight undifferentiated cells surrounded by follicular epithelium. After engorgement, the oocyte membrane facing the perioocytic space increases its absorptive surface by microvilli development; large amounts of Vg and lipids are stored between 24 and 48 h PBM. Along with yolk storage in the oocyte, follicular cells exhibit the development of RER cisternae and electron-dense granules begin to fill the perioocytic space, possibly giving rise to endochorion. Later in the gonotrophic cycle, electron-dense vesicles, which are possible exochorion precursors, fuse at the apical membrane of follicular cells. This fusion is followed by follicular cell degeneration.

Perfil de utilização de medicamentos em usuários da rede básica de saúde de Lorena, SP

Estudo transversal desenvolvido com a clientela da clínica médica das Unidades Básicas de Saúde de Lorena (SP) com o objetivo de descrever o perfil de utilização de medicamentos em adultos e idosos. Foram coletados dados sobre características sociodemográficas, razões de procura do serviço, prescrição medicamentosa, identificação do(s) medicamento(s) utilizado(s) no último mês, local de aquisição do(s) mesmo(s), automedicação e uso de medicamento(s) homeopático(s). Foram entrevistados 766 indivíduos, sendo 66% do sexo feminino. Mais de 46% dos entrevistados referiram existência de doença crônica e a maioria se considerava em bom estado de saúde. A prescrição de medicamentos alcançou cerca de 70% da população, com média de 1,5 medicamento por pessoa, a maioria anti-hipertensivos. Este número aumentou com o aumento da idade, foi maior nas situações de manutenção do estado de saúde e casos de doença, na existência de doença crônica, nos casos auto-referidos como estado de saúde ruim para os homens e regular para as mulheres. Para as mulheres, também foi maior para as não inscritas em alguma UBS e para aquelas em consulta de retorno. A automedicação e o uso de medicamentos homeopáticos foram baixos.

Impactos das atividades humanas sobre a dinâmica do fósforo no meio ambiente e seus reflexos na saúde pública

O fósforo é um nutriente com fontes finitas e não renováveis, cuja velocidade de exploração é atualmente muito superior às suas taxas de retorno ao seu ciclo natural, sendo que já existem previsões a respeito de um provável colapso nas suas fontes disponíveis e conhecidas, com impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais graves e irreversíveis. Diante desse cenário, o presente trabalho busca apresentar informações sobre a dinâmica do fósforo no meio ambiente, avaliando os impactos causados pelas atividades humanas e verificando as ações que podem auxiliar na preservação do ciclo do nutriente. Visando contribuir para uma melhor visualização do assunto, foi analisada a evolução dos dados relativos à concentração populacional, número de industriais e extensão das áreas cultivadas em uma bacia hidrográfica, em relação às concentrações de fósforo nos compartimentos água e sedimento, ao longo de 22 anos. Para tanto, utilizou-se o rio Tietê como estudo de caso. Os resultados obtidos indicam que o controle das fontes domésticas, principalmente da quantidade de tripolifosfato de sódio (STPP) utilizada nos detergentes, é de grande importância para melhoria da qualidade das águas, proteção ao meio ambiente e garantia da saúde pública

O Ginecologista obstetra e a internet

OBJETIVOS: identificar a influência do uso da internet na prática e ambiente de trabalho médico e verificar como estas mudanças vêm acorrendo entre médicos ginecologistas e obstetras. MÉTODO: foram enviados 1.120 questionários para médicos ginecologistas e obstetras da cidade de São Paulo, dos quais retornaram 152, o correspondente a 13,6 por cento da amostra ou 6,1 por cento do total dos médicos cadastrados na SOGESP. A análise quantitativa do comportamento do médico quanto ao uso da internet foi realizada por meio de proporções, médias, cálculos de desvios-padrão e do teste de associação de qui-quadrado. Através da técnica de Cluster Analysis, foram determinados 4 grupos segundo o perfil dos profissionais relacionado ao uso desta ferramenta. RESULTADOS: não se observou relação de idade, sexo, locais de trabalho e desenvolvimento de apenas uma das especialidades Ginecologia ou Obstetrícia quanto à utilização da internet na prática médica. Observou-se uma tendência de uso mais freqüente entre médicos com doutorado. Quanto aos serviços médicos prestados por e-mail, receber e devolver exames foram as atividades mais realizadas pelos sujeitos da pesquisa. CONCLUSÃO: os ginecologistas obstetras pesquisados utilizam a internet na prática médica para própria atualização, para comunicação com pacientes ou para oferecer serviços às mesmas com diferentes assiduidades. Entretanto, este uso é ainda parcial, talvez relacionado ao receio de interferências negativas na relação com o paciente, além de preocupações quanto à implicações legais, éticas e principalmente econômicas relacionadas à prática profissional

Prediction of good glass formers in the Al-Ni-La and Al-Ni-Gd systems using topological instability and electronegativity

A new criterion has been recently proposed combining the topological instability (lambda criterion) and the average electronegativity difference (Delta e) among the elements of an alloy to predict and select new glass-forming compositions. In the present work, this criterion (lambda.Delta e) is applied to the Al-Ni-La and Al-Ni-Gd ternary systems and its predictability is validated using literature data for both systems and additionally, using own experimental data for the Al-La-Ni system. The compositions with a high lambda.Delta e value found in each ternary system exhibit a very good correlation with the glass-forming ability of different alloys as indicated by their supercooled liquid regions (Delta T(x)) and their critical casting thicknesses. In the case of the Al-La-Ni system, the alloy with the largest lambda.Delta e value, La(56)Al(26.5)Ni(17.5), exhibits the highest glass-forming ability verified for this system. Therefore, the combined lambda.Delta e criterion is a simple and efficient tool to select new glass-forming compositions in Al-Ni-RE systems. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3563099]

Stability and ergodicity of piecewise deterministic Markov processes

The main goal of this paper is to establish some equivalence results on stability, recurrence, and ergodicity between a piecewise deterministic Markov process ( PDMP) {X( t)} and an embedded discrete-time Markov chain {Theta(n)} generated by a Markov kernel G that can be explicitly characterized in terms of the three local characteristics of the PDMP, leading to tractable criterion results. First we establish some important results characterizing {Theta(n)} as a sampling of the PDMP {X( t)} and deriving a connection between the probability of the first return time to a set for the discrete-time Markov chains generated by G and the resolvent kernel R of the PDMP. From these results we obtain equivalence results regarding irreducibility, existence of sigma-finite invariant measures, and ( positive) recurrence and ( positive) Harris recurrence between {X( t)} and {Theta(n)}, generalizing the results of [ F. Dufour and O. L. V. Costa, SIAM J. Control Optim., 37 ( 1999), pp. 1483-1502] in several directions. Sufficient conditions in terms of a modified Foster-Lyapunov criterion are also presented to ensure positive Harris recurrence and ergodicity of the PDMP. We illustrate the use of these conditions by showing the ergodicity of a capacity expansion model.

VALOR ECONÔMICO AGREGADO POR HOSPITAIS UNIVERSITÁRIOS PÚBLICOS

The increasing participation of the society in the decision-making process related to public politics stimulates public administration in Brazil to search for mechanisms to demonstrate efficiency and disclosure in resource application. The main objective of this work is to calculate the economic value added to the society by Public University Hospitals. Therefore, a Public University Hospital case study has been carried out and its economic performance evaluated during a period of three years. This study has shown that the economic value added to the society in the long term by the entity is positive. The proposed value measurement has indicated that the society is getting a superior return from the opportunity costs of capital invested, that is, the hospital is constructing economic value and consequently contributing to the social welfare.

Male sleeping aggregations of solitary oil-collecting bees in Brazil (Centridini, Tapinotaspidini, and Tetrapediini; Hymenoptera: Apidae)

Males of solitary bees usually spend the night in clusters on small branches of plants, cavities and flowers. The individuals usually return to the same location each evening during their life, exhibiting site fidelity to a particular plant. We report on the sleeping roosts of the males of some oil-collecting bees of the genera Centris, Paratetrapedia, Lanthanomelissa, Monoeca, and Tetrapedia, as well as the host plants. We discuss the role of the male clusters to the associated plants.