40 resultados para Probabilistic methodology

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)


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Um inquérito de base populacional foi conduzido na população urbana de todas as capitais e do Distrito Federal no Brasil para fornecer informações sobre a prevalência de hepatites virais e fatores de risco, entre 2005 e 2009. Este artigo descreve o delineamento e a metodologia do estudo que envolveu a população com idade entre 5 e 19 anos para hepatite A e 10 a 69 anos para hepatite B e C. As entrevistas e amostras de sangue foram obtidas através de visitas domiciliares e a amostra selecionada a partir de uma amostragem estratificada em múltiplos estágios (por conglomerado) com igual probabilidade para cada domínio de estudo (região e faixa etária). Nacionalmente, 19.280 residências e ~31.000 indivíduos foram selecionados. O tamanho da amostra foi suficiente para detectar uma prevalência em torno de 0,1% e para avaliar os fatores de risco por região. A metodologia apresentou-se viável para distinguir entre diferentes padrões epidemiológicos da hepatite A, B e C. Estes dados serão de valia para a avaliação das políticas de vacinação e para o desenho de estratégias de controle.

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OBJETIVO: Descrever os fatores de risco e proteção para doenças crônicas não transmissíveis resultantes do Sistema de Vigilância por Inquérito Telefônico (VIGITEL) em 2009. METODOLOGIA: Prevalências dos principais fatores de risco e proteção foram estimadas na população >18 anos a partir de entrevistas telefônicas em amostras probabilísticas da população coberta por telefonia fixa nas capitais de estados do Brasil e no Distrito Federal, segundo sexo, faixa etária e escolaridade. RESULTADOS: Foram realizadas 54.367 entrevistas. Fumantes e ex-fumantes corresponderam a 15,5e 22% da população adulta brasileira, respectivamente. O excesso de peso atinge 46,6% dos adultos; 33% relataram consumo de carne com gordura e 18,9% afirmaram consumir bebida alcoólica de forma abusiva. Tais fatores de risco são mais prevalentes em homens e em geral nos indivíduos jovens e de menor escolaridade. A prevalência de atividade física no lazer é de 18,8% (IC95% 17,4-20,1) em homens e de 11,3% (IC95% 10,6-12,0) nas mulheres. A inatividade física atinge 15,6% da população e aumenta com a idade. O consumo de frutas, legumes e verduras e a atividade física no lazer são mais frequentes em homens e mulheres com mais anos de estudo. Diagnóstico de hipertensão arterial foi referido por 21,1% (IC95% 19,6-22,5) dos homens e 27,2% (IC95% 25,8-28,5) das mulheres. A prevalência de diabetes foi de 5,8%. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados apontaram comportamentos em saúde distintos de acordo com o sexo, idade e escolaridade da população e reforçam a tendência de queda do tabagismo e aumento no excesso de peso no Brasil.

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Fifty Bursa of Fabricius (BF) were examined by conventional optical microscopy and digital images were acquired and processed using Matlab® 6.5 software. The Artificial Neuronal Network (ANN) was generated using Neuroshell® Classifier software and the optical and digital data were compared. The ANN was able to make a comparable classification of digital and optical scores. The use of ANN was able to classify correctly the majority of the follicles, reaching sensibility and specificity of 89% and 96%, respectively. When the follicles were scored and grouped in a binary fashion the sensibility increased to 90% and obtained the maximum value for the specificity of 92%. These results demonstrate that the use of digital image analysis and ANN is a useful tool for the pathological classification of the BF lymphoid depletion. In addition it provides objective results that allow measuring the dimension of the error in the diagnosis and classification therefore making comparison between databases feasible.

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Blends of milk fat and canola oil (MF:CNO) were enzymatically interesterified (EIE) by Rhizopus oryzne lipase immobilized on polysiloxane-polyvinyl alcohol (SiO(2)-PVA) composite, in a solvent-free system. A central composite design (CCD) was used to optimize the reaction, considering the effects of different mass fractions of binary blends of MF:CNO (50:50, 65:35 and 80:20) and temperatures (45, 55 and 65 degrees C) on the composition and texture properties of the interesterified products, taking the interesterification degree (ID) and consistency (at 10 degrees C) as response variables. For the ID variable both mass fraction of milk fat in the blend and temperature were found to be significant, while for the consistency only mass fraction of milk fat was significant. Empiric models for ID and consistency were obtained that allowed establishing the best interesterification conditions: blend with 65 % of milk fat and 35 %, of canola oil, and temperature of 45 degrees C. Under these conditions, the ID was 19.77 %) and the consistency at 10 degrees C was 56 290 Pa. The potential of this eco-friendly process demonstrated that a product could be obtained with the desirable milk fat flavour and better spreadability under refrigerated conditions.

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This paper proposes a new design methodology for discrete multi-pumped Raman amplifier. In a multi-objective optimization scenario, in a first step the whole solution-space is inspected by a CW analytical formulation. Then, the most promising solutions are fully investigated by a rigorous numerical treatment and the Raman amplification performance is thus determined by the combination of analytical and numerical approaches. As an application of our methodology we designed an photonic crystal fiber Raman amplifier configuration which provides low ripple, high gain, clear eye opening and a low power penalty. The amplifier configuration also enables to fully compensate the dispersion introduced by a 70-km singlemode fiber in a 10 Gbit/s system. We have successfully obtained a configuration with 8.5 dB average gain over the C-band and 0.71 dB ripple with almost zero eye-penalty using only two pump lasers with relatively low pump power. (C) 2009 Optical Society of America

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Introduction. This method is used to forecast the harvest date of banana bunches from as early as the plant shooting stage. It facilitates the harvest of bunches with the same physiological age. The principle, key advantages, time required and expected results are presented. Materials and methods. Details of the four steps of the method ( installation of the temperature sensor, tagging bunches at the flowering stage, temperature sum calculation and estimation of bunch harvest date) are described. Possible problems are discussed. Results. The application of the method allows drawing a curve of the temperature sum accumulated by the bunches which have to be harvested at exactly 900 degree-days physiological age.

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Background: The post-genomic era has brought new challenges regarding the understanding of the organization and function of the human genome. Many of these challenges are centered on the meaning of differential gene regulation under distinct biological conditions and can be performed by analyzing the Multiple Differential Expression (MDE) of genes associated with normal and abnormal biological processes. Currently MDE analyses are limited to usual methods of differential expression initially designed for paired analysis. Results: We proposed a web platform named ProbFAST for MDE analysis which uses Bayesian inference to identify key genes that are intuitively prioritized by means of probabilities. A simulated study revealed that our method gives a better performance when compared to other approaches and when applied to public expression data, we demonstrated its flexibility to obtain relevant genes biologically associated with normal and abnormal biological processes. Conclusions: ProbFAST is a free accessible web-based application that enables MDE analysis on a global scale. It offers an efficient methodological approach for MDE analysis of a set of genes that are turned on and off related to functional information during the evolution of a tumor or tissue differentiation. ProbFAST server can be accessed at http://gdm.fmrp.usp.br/probfast.

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An in vivo study was conducted to verify the ability of laser fluorescence (LF) to assess the activity status of occlusal caries in primary teeth, using different air-drying times. Occlusal sites (707) were examined using LF (DIAGNOdent) after air-drying for 3 s and 15 s, and the difference between readings (DIF15 s-3 s) was calculated. For concurrent validation of LF, visual criteria-Nyvad (NY) and Lesion Activity Assessment associated with the International Caries Detection and Assessment System (LAA-ICDAS)-were the reference standards for lesion activity. Histological exam using a pH-indicator dye (0.1% methyl red) was performed in 46 exfoliated/extracted teeth for criterion validation. LF readings and DIF15 s-3 s were compared using Kruskall-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests. Receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed and validity parameters calculated, considering the caries activity assessment. Using NY, active lesions (3 s: 30.0 +/- 29.3; 15 s: 34.2 +/- 30.6) presented higher LF readings than inactive lesions (3 s: 17.0 +/- 16.3; 15 s: 19.2 +/- 17.3; p <0.05), different from LAA-ICDAS. Active cavitated caries resulted in higher LF readings (3 s: 50.3 +/- 3.5; 15 s: 54.7 +/- 30.2) than inactive cavitated caries (3 s: 19.9 +/- 16.3; 15 s: 22.8 +/- 16.8). Therefore, LF can distinguish cavitated active and inactive lesions classified by NY, but not by LAA-ICDAS; however, this difference might be related to the visual system rather than to LF. The air-drying time could be an alternative to improve the caries activity assessment; however, longer air-drying time is suggested to be tested subsequently. (C) 2010 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers. [DOI: 10.1117/1.3463007]

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Stavskaya's model is a one-dimensional probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) introduced in the end of the 1960s as an example of a model displaying a nonequilibrium phase transition. Although its absorbing state phase transition is well understood nowadays, the model never received a full numerical treatment to investigate its critical behavior. In this Brief Report we characterize the critical behavior of Stavskaya's PCA by means of Monte Carlo simulations and finite-size scaling analysis. The critical exponents of the model are calculated and indicate that its phase transition belongs to the directed percolation universality class of critical behavior, as would be expected on the basis of the directed percolation conjecture. We also explicitly establish the relationship of the model with the Domany-Kinzel PCA on its directed site percolation line, a connection that seems to have gone unnoticed in the literature so far.

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Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence of sleep habits and complaints and to estimate the secular trends through three population-based surveys carried out in 1987, 1995, and 2007 in the general adult population of the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Surveys were performed using the same three-stage cluster-sampling technique in three consecutive decades to obtain representative samples of the inhabitants of Sao Paulo with respect to gender, age (20-80 years), and socio-economic status. Sample sizes were 1000 volunteers in 1987 and 1995 surveys and 1101 in a 2007 survey. In each survey, the UNIFESP Sleep Questionnaire was administered face-to-face in each household selected. Results: For 1987, 1995, and 2007, respectively, difficulty initiating sleep (weighted frequency %; 95% CI) [(13.9; 11.9-16.2), (19.15; 16.8-21.6), and (25.0; 22.5-27.8)], difficulty maintaining sleep [(15.8; 13.7-18.2), (27.6; 24.9-30.4), and (36.5; 33.5-39.5)], and early morning awakening [(10.6; 8.8-12.7), (14.2; 12.2-16.5), and (26.7; 24-29.6)] increased in the general population over time, mostly in women. Habitual snoring was the most commonly reported complaint across decades and was more prevalent in men. There was no statistically significant difference in snoring complaints between 1987 (21.5; 19.1-24.2) and 1995 (19.0; 16.7-21.6), but a significant increase was noted in 2007 (41.7; 38.6-44.8). Nightmares, bruxism, leg cramps, and somnambulism complaints were significantly higher in 2007 compared to 1987 and 1995. All were more frequent in women. Conclusions: This is the first study comparing sleep complaints in probabilistic population-based samples from the same metropolitan area, using the same methodology across three consecutive decades. Clear trends of increasing sleep complaints were observed, which increased faster between 1995 and 2007 than from 1987 to 1995. These secular trends should be considered a relevant public health issue and support the need for development of health care and educational strategies to supply the population`s increased need for information on sleep disorders and their consequences. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The conditions for maximization of the enzymatic activity of lipase entrapped in sol-gel matrix were determined for different vegetable oils using an experimental design. The effects of pH, temperature, and biocatalyst loading on lipase activity were verified using a central composite experimental design leading to a set of 13 assays and the surface response analysis. For canola oil and entrapped lipase, statistical analyses showed significant effects for pH and temperature and also the interactions between pH and temperature and temperature and biocatalyst loading. For the olive oil and entrapped lipase, it was verified that the pH was the only variable statistically significant. This study demonstrated that response surface analysis is a methodology appropriate for the maximization of the percentage of hydrolysis, as a function of pH, temperature, and lipase loading.

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This work presents a thermoeconomic optimization methodology for the analysis and design of energy systems. This methodology involves economic aspects related to the exergy conception, in order to develop a tool to assist the equipment selection, operation mode choice as well as to optimize the thermal plants design. It also presents the concepts related to exergy in a general scope and in thermoeconomics which combines the thermal sciences principles (thermodynamics, heat transfer, and fluid mechanics) and the economic engineering in order to rationalize energy systems investment decisions, development and operation. Even in this paper, it develops a thermoeconomic methodology through the use of a simple mathematical model, involving thermodynamics parameters and costs evaluation, also defining the objective function as the exergetic production cost. The optimization problem evaluation is developed for two energy systems. First is applied to a steam compression refrigeration system and then to a cogeneration system using backpressure steam turbine. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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BACKGROUND: The combined effects of vanillin and syringaldehyde on xylitol production by Candida guilliermondii using response surface methodology (RSM) have been studied. A 2(2) full-factorial central composite design was employed for experimental design and analysis of the results. RESULTS: Maximum xylitol productivities (Q(p) = 0.74 g L(-1) h(-1)) and yields (Y(P/S) = 0.81 g g(-1)) can be attained by adding only vanillin at 2.0 g L(-1) to the fermentation medium. These data were closely correlated with the experimental results obtained (0.69 +/- 0.04 g L(-1) h(-1) and 0.77 +/- 0.01 g g(-1)) indicating a good agreement with the predicted value. C. guilliermondii was able to convert vanillin completely after 24 h of fermentation with 94% yield of vanillyl alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: The bioconversion of xylose into xylitol by C. guilliermondii is strongly dependent on the combination of aldehydes and phenolics in the fermentation medium. Vanillin is a source of phenolic compound able to improve xylitol production by yeast. The conversion of vanillin to alcohol vanilyl reveals the potential of this yeast for medium detoxification. (C) 2009 Society of Chemical Industry

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Response surface methodology was used to evaluate optimal time, temperature and oxalic acid concentration for simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) of corncob particles by Pichia stipitis CBS 6054. Fifteen different conditions for pretreatment were examined in a 2(3) full factorial design with six axial points. Temperatures ranged from 132 to 180 degrees C, time from 10 to 90 min and oxalic acid loadings from 0.01 to 0.038 g/g solids. Separate maxima were found for enzymatic saccharification and hemicellulose fermentation, respectively, with the condition for maximum saccharification being significantly more severe. Ethanol production was affected by reaction temperature more than by oxalic acid and reaction time over the ranges examined. The effect of reaction temperature was significant at a 95% confidence level in its effect on ethanol production. Oxalic acid and reaction time were statistically significant at the 90% level. The highest ethanol concentration (20 g/l) was obtained after 48 h with an ethanol volumetric production rate of 0.42 g ethanol l(-1) h(-1). The ethanol yield after SSF with P. stipitis was significantly higher than predicted by sequential saccharification and fermentation of substrate pretreated under the same condition. This was attributed to the secretion of beta-glucosidase by P. stipitis. During SSF, free extracellular beta-glucosidase activity was 1.30 pNPG U/g with P. stipitis, while saccharification without the yeast was 0.66 pNPG U/g. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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A hybrid system to automatically detect, locate and classify disturbances affecting power quality in an electrical power system is presented in this paper. The disturbances characterized are events from an actual power distribution system simulated by the ATP (Alternative Transients Program) software. The hybrid approach introduced consists of two stages. In the first stage, the wavelet transform (WT) is used to detect disturbances in the system and to locate the time of their occurrence. When such an event is flagged, the second stage is triggered and various artificial neural networks (ANNs) are applied to classify the data measured during the disturbance(s). A computational logic using WTs and ANNs together with a graphical user interface (GU) between the algorithm and its end user is then implemented. The results obtained so far are promising and suggest that this approach could lead to a useful application in an actual distribution system. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.