26 resultados para Prior Probability

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)


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Data from 58 strong-lensing events surveyed by the Sloan Lens ACS Survey are used to estimate the projected galaxy mass inside their Einstein radii by two independent methods: stellar dynamics and strong gravitational lensing. We perform a joint analysis of these two estimates inside models with up to three degrees of freedom with respect to the lens density profile, stellar velocity anisotropy, and line-of-sight (LOS) external convergence, which incorporates the effect of the large-scale structure on strong lensing. A Bayesian analysis is employed to estimate the model parameters, evaluate their significance, and compare models. We find that the data favor Jaffe`s light profile over Hernquist`s, but that any particular choice between these two does not change the qualitative conclusions with respect to the features of the system that we investigate. The density profile is compatible with an isothermal, being sightly steeper and having an uncertainty in the logarithmic slope of the order of 5% in models that take into account a prior ignorance on anisotropy and external convergence. We identify a considerable degeneracy between the density profile slope and the anisotropy parameter, which largely increases the uncertainties in the estimates of these parameters, but we encounter no evidence in favor of an anisotropic velocity distribution on average for the whole sample. An LOS external convergence following a prior probability distribution given by cosmology has a small effect on the estimation of the lens density profile, but can increase the dispersion of its value by nearly 40%.

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Objetivou-se verificar a prevalência de deficiência auditiva referida pela população urbana de quatro localidades do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, e estudar as causas atribuídas e variáveis sócio-demográficas. Foi realizado um estudo transversal de base populacional com dados referentes à população com 12 anos ou mais residente nas quatro localidades, em 2001 e 2002. Participaram 5.250 sujeitos selecionados por amostragem probabilística, estratificada e selecionada por conglomerados, em dois estágios. A análise dos dados foi exploratória, incluindo análise bivariada e regressão logística múltipla. A prevalência de deficiência auditiva foi 5,21%, mais acentuada nas faixas etárias acima de 59 anos (18,7%), que referiram doenças nos 15 dias anteriores à entrevista (8,4%), com transtorno mental comum (8,85%) e que fizeram uso de medicamentos nos últimos 3 dias (8,45%). O estudo dos fatores que se associam à deficiência auditiva direcionam intervenções de saúde para que atendam as reais necessidades da população, principalmente na atenção primária. Há necessidade de mais estudos populacionais com enfoque na audição, visto que esta é uma área escassa de publicações no Brasil.

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OBJETIVO: Analisar os fatores relacionados à determinação e às desigualdades no acesso e uso dos serviços de saúde por idosos. MÉTODOS: Estudo integrante do Projeto Saúde, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento (SABE), no qual foram entrevistados 2.143 indivíduos com 60 anos ou mais no município de São Paulo, SP, em 2000. A amostra foi obtida em dois estágios, utilizando-se setores censitários com reposição, probabilidade proporcional à população e complementação da amostra de pessoas de 75 anos. Foi mensurado o uso de serviços hospitalares e ambulatoriais nos quatro meses anteriores à entrevista, relacionando-os com fatores de capacidade, necessidade e predisposição (renda total, escolaridade, seguro saúde, morbidade referida, auto-percepção, sexo e idade). O método estatístico utilizado foi regressão logística multivariada. RESULTADOS: Dos entrevistados, 4,7% referiram ter utilizado a internação hospitalar e 64,4% o atendimento ambulatorial. Dos atendimentos ambulatoriais em serviço público, 24,7% ocorreram em hospital e 24,1% em serviço ambulatorial; dentre os que ocorreram em serviços privados, 14,5% foram em hospital e 33,7% em clínicas. Pela análise multivariada, observou-se associação entre a utilização de serviços e sexo, presença de doenças, auto-percepção de saúde, interação da renda e escolaridade e posse de seguro saúde. A análise isolada com escolaridade apresentou efeito inverso. CONCLUSÕES: Foram observadas desigualdades no uso e acesso aos serviços de saúde e inadequação do modelo de atenção, indicando necessidade de políticas públicas que levem em conta as especificidades dessa população, facilitem o acesso e possam reduzir essas desigualdades.

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The aim of this study was to investigate the possible effects of reproductive experience on dopaminergic profile in three different brain tissues, hypothalamus, striatum and cortex in rats on 7th-8th day of pregnancy during the light-dark shift (between 1700-1900h). Results showed that in hypothalamus, dopamine levels increased and DOPAC/DA decreased as a function of parity. In cortex, no differences were observed. In striata, the haloperidol-induced HVA and HVA/DA increases were less intense in experienced animals. These findings suggested that reproductive experience produced functional central changes during pregnancy, with different neurochemical responses depending on the brain region.

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The structure of probability currents is studied for the dynamical network after consecutive contraction on two-state, nonequilibrium lattice systems. This procedure allows us to investigate the transition rates between configurations on small clusters and highlights some relevant effects of lattice symmetries on the elementary transitions that are responsible for entropy production. A method is suggested to estimate the entropy production for different levels of approximations (cluster sizes) as demonstrated in the two-dimensional contact process with mutation.

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Alternative splicing of gene transcripts greatly expands the functional capacity of the genome, and certain splice isoforms may indicate specific disease states such as cancer. Splice junction microarrays interrogate thousands of splice junctions, but data analysis is difficult and error prone because of the increased complexity compared to differential gene expression analysis. We present Rank Change Detection (RCD) as a method to identify differential splicing events based upon a straightforward probabilistic model comparing the over-or underrepresentation of two or more competing isoforms. RCD has advantages over commonly used methods because it is robust to false positive errors due to nonlinear trends in microarray measurements. Further, RCD does not depend on prior knowledge of splice isoforms, yet it takes advantage of the inherent structure of mutually exclusive junctions, and it is conceptually generalizable to other types of splicing arrays or RNA-Seq. RCD specifically identifies the biologically important cases when a splice junction becomes more or less prevalent compared to other mutually exclusive junctions. The example data is from different cell lines of glioblastoma tumors assayed with Agilent microarrays.

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A multi-pumping flow system exploiting prior assay is proposed for sequential turbidimetric determination of sulphate and chloride in natural waters. Both methods are implemented in the same manifold that provides facilities for: in-line sample clean-up with a Bio-Rex 70 mini-column with fluidized beads: addition of low amounts of sulphate or chloride ions to the reaction medium for improving supersaturation; analyte precipitation with Ba(2+) or Ag(+); real-time decision on the need for next assay. The sample is initially run for chloride determination, and the analytical signal is compared with a preset value. If higher, the sample is run again, now for sulphate determination. The strategy may lead to all increased sample throughput. The proposed system is computer-controlled and presents enhanced figures of merit. About 10 samples are run per hour (about 60 measurements) and results are reproducible and Unaffected by the presence of potential interfering ions at concentration levels usually found in natural waters. Accuracy was assessed against ion chromatography. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

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A method for the determination of artemether (ART) and its main metabolite dihydroartemisinin (DHA) in plasma employing liquid-phase microextraction (LPME) for sample preparation prior to liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS-MS) was developed. The analytes were extracted from 1 nil, of plasma utilizing a two-phase LPME procedure with artemisinin as internal standard. Using the optimized LPME conditions, mean absolute recovery rates of 25 and 32% for DHA and ART, respectively, were achieved using toluene-n-octanol (1:1, viv) as organic phase with an extraction time of 30 min. After extraction, the analytes were resolved within 5 min using a mobile phase consisting of methanol-ammonium acetate (10 mmol L(-1) pH 5.0, 80:20. v/v) on a laboratory-made column based on poly(methyltetradecylsiloxane) attached to a zirconized-silica support. MS-MS detection was employed using an electrospray interface in the positive ion mode. The method developed was linear over the range of 5-1000 ng mL(-1) for both analytes. Precision and accuracy were within acceptable levels of confidence (<15%). The assay was applied to the determination of these analytes in plasma from rats treated with ART. The two-phase LPME procedure is affordable and the solvent consumption was very low compared to the traditional methods of sample preparation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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DHEA, a steroid hormone synthesized from cholesterol by cells of the adrenal cortex, plays an essential role in enhancing the host`s resistance to different experimental infections. Receptors for this hormone can be found in distinct immune cells (especially macrophages) that are known to be the first line defense against Trypanosoma cruzi infection. These cells operate through an indirect pathway releasing nitric oxide (NO) and cytokines such TNF-alpha and IL-12 which in turn trigger an enhancement of natural killer cells and lymphocytes which finally secrete pro and anti-inflammatory cytokines. The effects of pre- and post-infection DHEA treatment on production of IL-12, TNF alpha and NO were evaluated. T. cruzi infected macrophages post treated with DHEA displayed enhanced concentrations of TNF-alpha, IL-12 and NO. Probably, the mechanisms that induced the production of cytokines by infected cells are more efficient when the immune system has been stimulated first by parasite invasion, suggesting that the protective role of DHEA is greater when administered post infection. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.

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With the purpose of approximating two issues, oral narrative and constructive memory, we assume that children, as well as adults, have a constructive memory. Accordingly, researchers of the constructive memory share with piagetians the vision that memory is an applied cognition. Under this perspective, understanding and coding into memory constitute a process which is considered similar to the piagetian assimilation of building an internal conceptual representation of the information (hence the term constructive memory. The objective of this study is to examine and illustrate, through examples drawn from a research about oral narrative with 5, 8 and 10 years old children, the extent to which the constructive memory is stimulated by the acquisition of the structures of knowledge or ""mental models"" (schemes of stories and scenes, scripts), and if they automatically employ them to process constructively the information in storage and rebuild them in the recovery. A sequence of five pictures from a book without text was transformed into computerized program, and the pictures were thus presented to the children. The story focuses on a misunderstanding of two characters on a different assessment about a key event. In data collection, the demands of memory were preserved, since children narrate their stories when the images were no longer viewed on the computer screen. Each narrative was produced as a monologue. The results show that this story can be told either in a descriptive level or in a more elaborated level, where intentions and beliefs are attributed to the characters. Although this study allows an assessment of the development of children`s capabilities (both cognitive and linguistic) to narrate a story, there are for sure other issues that could be exploited.

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Purpose The third-generation nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitors (AIs) are increasingly used as adjuvant and first-line advanced therapy for postmenopausal, hormone receptor-positive (HR +) breast cancer. Because many patients subsequently experience progression or relapse, it is important to identify agents with efficacy after AI failure. Materials and Methods Evaluation of Faslodex versus Exemestane Clinical Trial (EFECT) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled, multicenter phase III trial of fulvestrant versus exemestane in postmenopausal women with HR + advanced breast cancer (ABC) progressing or recurring after nonsteroidal AI. The primary end point was time to progression (TTP). A fulvestrant loading-dose (LD) regimen was used: 500 mg intramuscularly on day 0, 250 mg on days 14, 28, and 250 mg every 28 days thereafter. Exemestane 25 mg orally was administered once daily. Results A total of 693 women were randomly assigned to fulvestrant (n = 351) or exemestane ( n = 342). Approximately 60% of patients had received at least two prior endocrine therapies. Median TTP was 3.7 months in both groups ( hazard ratio = 0.963; 95% CI, 0.819 to 1.133; P = .6531). The overall response rate ( 7.4% v 6.7%; P = .736) and clinical benefit rate ( 32.2% v 31.5%; P = .853) were similar between fulvestrant and exemestane respectively. Median duration of clinical benefit was 9.3 and 8.3 months, respectively. Both treatments were well tolerated, with no significant differences in the incidence of adverse events or quality of life. Pharmacokinetic data confirm that steady-state was reached within 1 month with the LD schedule of fulvestrant. Conclusion Fulvestrant LD and exemestane are equally active and well-tolerated in a meaningful proportion of postmenopausal women with ABC who have experienced progression or recurrence during treatment with a nonsteroidal AI.

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Objectives/Hypothesis: Blood supply to the Hadad-Bassagasteguy pedicled nasoseptal flap may be interrupted by surgery of the pterygopalatine fossa, posterior septectomy, or large sphenoidotomies. This would preclude its use for reconstruction of skull base defects after expanded endonasal approaches (EEA). We present a novel method to ascertain the patency of the nasoseptal artery after prior surgery, and consequently the availability of the nasoseptal flap, using acoustic Doppler sonography. Study Design: Retrospective clinical review. Methods: Four patients who underwent EEAs were evaluated intraoperatively with acoustic Doppler sonography. The mucosa that covers the inferior aspect of the rostrum of the sphenoid sinus was scanned with the tip of the probe. Reflection of sound waves representing intravascular blood flow was assessed. Results: In three patients, the artery was identified in at least one side. One remaining patient showed no acoustic signal suggesting loss of the nasoseptal artery bilaterally, therefore necessitating the use of a fat graft for the reconstruction. Conclusions: Acoustic Doppler sonography seems to be a feasible and effective way to ascertain the availability of the nasoseptal artery. It is a relatively inexpensive and simple technique that can be performed by any endoscopic surgeon.

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Aim: To determine the possible factors predicting the insulin requirement in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Method: A total of 294 patients with GDM diagnosed by the 100-g/3-h oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) were studied. The following factors were analyzed: maternal age, nulliparity, family history of diabetes, prepregnancy BMI, prior GDM, prior fetal macrosomia, multiple pregnancy, polyhydramnios, gestational age at diagnosis of GDM, smoking, hypertension, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). The association between each factor and the need for insulin therapy was then analyzed individually. The performance of these factors to predict the probability of insulin therapy was estimated using a logistic regression model. Results: Univariate analysis showed a positive correlation between insulin therapy and prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, hypertension, prior GDM, prior fetal macrosomia, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and HbA1c (P < 0.05). Prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values and HbA1c were statistically significant variables in the logistic regression model. Conclusions: The probability of insulin therapy can be estimated in pregnant women with GDM based on prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and HbA1c concentration. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.