156 resultados para Prior Distribution

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)


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Background: Bayesian mixing models have allowed for the inclusion of uncertainty and prior information in the analysis of trophic interactions using stable isotopes. Formulating prior distributions is relatively straightforward when incorporating dietary data. However, the use of data that are related, but not directly proportional, to diet (such as prey availability data) is often problematic because such information is not necessarily predictive of diet, and the information required to build a reliable prior distribution for all prey species is often unavailable. Omitting prey availability data impacts the estimation of a predator's diet and introduces the strong assumption of consumer ultrageneralism (where all prey are consumed in equal proportions), particularly when multiple prey have similar isotope values. Methodology: We develop a procedure to incorporate prey availability data into Bayesian mixing models conditional on the similarity of isotope values between two prey. If a pair of prey have similar isotope values (resulting in highly uncertain mixing model results), our model increases the weight of availability data in estimating the contribution of prey to a predator's diet. We test the utility of this method in an intertidal community against independently measured feeding rates. Conclusions: Our results indicate that our weighting procedure increases the accuracy by which consumer diets can be inferred in situations where multiple prey have similar isotope values. This suggests that the exchange of formalism for predictive power is merited, particularly when the relationship between prey availability and a predator's diet cannot be assumed for all species in a system.

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This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

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The main object of this paper is to discuss the Bayes estimation of the regression coefficients in the elliptically distributed simple regression model with measurement errors. The posterior distribution for the line parameters is obtained in a closed form, considering the following: the ratio of the error variances is known, informative prior distribution for the error variance, and non-informative prior distributions for the regression coefficients and for the incidental parameters. We proved that the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients has at most two real modes. Situations with a single mode are more likely than those with two modes, especially in large samples. The precision of the modal estimators is studied by deriving the Hessian matrix, which although complicated can be computed numerically. The posterior mean is estimated by using the Gibbs sampling algorithm and approximations by normal distributions. The results are applied to a real data set and connections with results in the literature are reported. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Objective: Looking for possible neuroimmune relationships, we analyzed the effects of methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) administration on neuroendocrine, neutrophil activity and leukocyte distribution in mice. Methods: Five experiments were performed. In the first, mice were treated with MDMA (10 mg/kg) 30, 60 min and 24 h prior to blood sample collection for neutrophil activity analysis. In the second experiment, the blood of nave mice was collected and incubated with MDMA for neutrophil activity in vitro analysis. In the third and fourth experiments, mice were injected with MDMA (10 mg/kg) and 60 min later, blood and brain were collected to analyze corticosterone serum levels and hypothalamic noradrenaline (NA) levels and turnover. In the last experiment, mice were injected with MDMA 10 mg/kg and 60 min later, blood, bone marrow and spleen were collected for leukocyte distribution analysis. Results: Results showed an increase in hypothalamic NA turnover and corticosterone serum levels 60 min after MDMA (10 mg/kg) administration, a decrease in peripheral blood neutrophil oxidative burst and a decrease in the percentage and intensity of neutrophil phagocytosis. It was further found that MDMA (10 mg/kg) treatment also altered leukocyte distribution in blood, bone marrow and spleen. In addition, no effects were observed for MDMA after in vitro exposure both in neutrophil oxidative burst and phagocytosis. Conclusion: The effects of MDMA administration (10 mg/kg) on neutrophil activity and leukocyte distribution might have been induced indirectly through noradrenergic neurons and/or hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activations. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

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Background Changes in the shape of the capnogram may reflect changes in lung physiology. We studied the effect of different ventilation/perfusion ratios (V/Q) induced by positive end-expiratory pressures (PEEP) and lung recruitment on phase III slope (S(III)) of volumetric capnograms. Methods Seven lung-lavaged pigs received volume control ventilation at tidal volumes of 6 ml/kg. After a lung recruitment maneuver, open-lung PEEP (OL-PEEP) was defined at 2 cmH(2)O above the PEEP at the onset of lung collapse as identified by the maximum respiratory compliance during a decremental PEEP trial. Thereafter, six distinct PEEP levels either at OL-PEEP, 4 cmH(2)O above or below this level were applied in a random order, either with or without a prior lung recruitment maneuver. Ventilation-perfusion distribution (using multiple inert gas elimination technique), hemodynamics, blood gases and volumetric capnography data were recorded at the end of each condition (minute 40). Results S(III) showed the lowest value whenever lung recruitment and OL-PEEP were jointly applied and was associated with the lowest dispersion of ventilation and perfusion (Disp(R-E)), the lowest ratio of alveolar dead space to alveolar tidal volume (VD(alv)/VT(alv)) and the lowest difference between arterial and end-tidal pCO(2) (Pa-ETCO(2)). Spearman`s rank correlations between S(III) and Disp(R-E) showed a =0.85 with 95% CI for (Fisher`s Z-transformation) of 0.74-0.91, P < 0.0001. Conclusion In this experimental model of lung injury, changes in the phase III slope of the capnograms were directly correlated with the degree of ventilation/perfusion dispersion.

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The endocannabinoid system has become a topic of great interest in pharmacology due to its remarkable distribution in mammal organisms and capacity to play a modulatory role on several physiological systems, including modulation of immunity. Many studies have shown that administration of cannabinoids causes inhibitory effects on immune cells, including decreased proliferation and antigen-presenting cell (APC) costimulatory activity. In contrast, other groups have shown that some cannabinoids might present stimulatory actions on macrophage activity and T cell activation. Therefore, we aimed to investigate whether a treatment in vivo with a low dose of anandamide (0.1 mg/kg) immediately prior to sensitization would have an immunosuppressive or immunostimulatory effect on cell-mediated immunity (Th1 response) in mice. We report here that anandamide, prior to sensitization, was able to increase the Th1 response to ovalbumin in vivo and ex vivo. Anandamide increased delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH), splenocyte proliferation, and IFN-gamma production in a co-culture of adherent and non-adherent splenocytes. Moreover, anandamide prior to sensitization increased both the expression of DC co-stimulatory molecules (CD80/CD86) and IL-12/IL23 (p40) production ex vivo. We have also assessed direct effects of anandamide in the IFN-gamma/IL-4 balance of ConA-stimulated splenocytes in vitro. Anandamide at nanomolar concentrations increased the production of IFN-gamma, while such production decreased at micromolar range. Thus, anandamide induced both the increment of DC activation and IFN-gamma production, which are likely the mechanisms involved in the increase of Th1 response reported here. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the microbial distribution in the root canal system after periapical lesion induction in dogs' teeth using different methods. Fifty-two root canals were assigned to 4 groups (n=13). Groups I and II: root canals were exposed to the oral cavity for 180 days; groups III and IV: root canals were exposed for 7 days and then the coronal openings were sealed for 53 days. The root apices of groups I and III were perforated, while those of groups II and IV remained intact. After the experimental periods, the animals were euthanized and the anatomic pieces containing the roots were processed and stained with the Brown & Brenn method to assess the presence and distribution of microorganisms. The incidence of microorganisms at different sites of the roots and periapical lesions was analyzed statistically by the chi-square test at 5% significance level. All groups presented microorganisms in the entire root canal system. A larger number of microorganisms was observed on the root canal walls, apical delta and dentinal tubules (p<0.05), followed by cementum and cemental resorption areas. In spite of the different periods of exposure to the oral environment, the methods used for induction of periapical periodontitis yielded similar distribution of microorganisms in the root canal system.

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Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans is an important etiologic agent of the periodontitis and is associated with extra-oral infections. In this study, the detection of the ltxA gene as well as the ltx promoter region from leukotoxic A. actinomycetemcomitans isolated from 50 Brazilian patients with periodontitis and 50 healthy subjects was performed. The leukotoxic activity on HL-60 cells was also evaluated. Leukotoxic activity was determined using a trypan blue exclusion method. The 530 bp deletion in the promoter region was evaluated by PCR using a PRO primer pair. A. actinomycetemcomitans was detected by culture and directly from crude subgingival biofilm by PCR using specific primers. By culture, A. actinomycetemcomitans was detected in nine (18%) of the periodontal patients and one (2%) healthy subject. However, by PCR, this organism was detected in 44% of the periodontal patients and in 16% of the healthy subjects. It was verified a great discrepancy between PCR detection of the ltx operon promoter directly from crude subgingival biofilm and from bacterial DNA. Only one periodontal sample harbored highly leukotoxic A. actinomycetemcomitans. Moreover, biotype II was the most prevalent and no correlation between biotypes and leukotoxic activity was observed. The diversity of leukotoxin expression by A. actinomycetemcomitans suggests a role of this toxin in the pathogenesis of periodontal disease and other infectious diseases.

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We assessed the inequality in the distribution of dental caries and the association between indicators of socioeconomic status and caries experience in a representative sample of schoolchildren. This study followed a cross-sectional design, with a sample of 792 schoolchildren aged 12 years, representative of this age group in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Guardians answered questions on socioeconomic status and a dental examination provided information on the dental caries experience (DMF-T). Inequality in dental caries distribution was measured by the Gini coefficient and the Significant Caries Index (SiC). The assessment of association used Poisson regression models. Socioeconomic factors were associated with prevalence of dental caries for the whole sample and also for individuals with a high-caries level. Children from low-income households had the highest prevalence of dental caries. The Gini coefficient was 0.7 and the SiC Index 2.5. The percentage of caries prevalence was 39.3% (95% CI: 35.8%-42.8%) and the mean for DMF-T was 0.9 (± SD 1.5). Inequalities in the distribution of dental caries were observed and socioeconomic factors were found to be strong predictors of the prevalence of oral disease in children of this age group.

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Pimelerodius punctiventris sp. nov. (type locality Brazil, Amazonas, Itacoatiara) is described and illustrated. The new taxon is compared with similar species, being distinguished from the other 12 known species of the genus by the presence of punctures in ventrite I. The available published key for identification of species of Pimelerodius is adapted to include the new species. A modification of the generic description of the aedeagus of Pimelerodius is provided, a necessity due to the differences observed in the aedeagus of the new species. The occurrence of P. motacilla (Boheman, 1843) in the Amazon Region, recorded in sympatry with P. punctiventris in Itacoatiara, AM, is discussed and confirmed, based on the study of 41 available specimens.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze the amount of glycosaminoglycans in the uterine cervix during each phase of the rat estrous cycle. DESIGN: Based on vaginal smears, forty female, regularly cycling rats were divided into four groups (n = 10 for each group): GI - proestrous, GII - estrous, GIII - metaestrous and GIV - diestrous. Animals were sacrificed at each phase of the cycle, and the cervix was immediately removed and submitted to biochemical extraction and determination of sulfated glycosaminoglycans and hyaluronic acid. The results were analyzed by ANOVA followed by the Bonferroni post-hoc test. RESULTS: The uterine cervix had the highest amount of total sulfated glycosaminoglycans and dermatan sulfate during the estrous phase (8.90 ± 0.55 mg/g of cetonic extract, p<0.001; and 8.86 ± 0.57 mg/g of cetonic extract, p<0.001). In addition, there was more heparan sulfate at the cervix during the proestrous phase (0.185 ± 0.03 mg/g of cetonic extract) than during any other phase (p<0.001). There were no significant changes in the concentration of hyaluronic acid in the uterine cervix during the estrous cycle. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the amount of total sulfated glycosaminoglycans may be influenced by hormonal fluctuations related to the estrous cycle, with dermatan sulfate and heparan sulfate being the glycosaminoglycans most sensitive to hormonal change.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the stress distribution in the cervical region of a sound upper central incisor in two clinical situations, standard and maximum masticatory forces, by means of a 3D model with the highest possible level of fidelity to the anatomic dimensions. Two models with 331,887 linear tetrahedral elements that represent a sound upper central incisor with periodontal ligament, cortical and trabecular bones were loaded at 45º in relation to the tooth's long axis. All structures were considered to be homogeneous and isotropic, with the exception of the enamel (anisotropic). A standard masticatory force (100 N) was simulated on one of the models, while on the other one a maximum masticatory force was simulated (235.9 N). The software used were: PATRAN for pre- and post-processing and Nastran for processing. In the cementoenamel junction area, tensile forces reached 14.7 MPa in the 100 N model, and 40.2 MPa in the 235.9 N model, exceeding the enamel's tensile strength (16.7 MPa). The fact that the stress concentration in the amelodentinal junction exceeded the enamel's tensile strength under simulated conditions of maximum masticatory force suggests the possibility of the occurrence of non-carious cervical lesions such as abfractions.

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This work presents a study of selected outcrops from the Pedra das Torrinhas Formation of the Guaritas Group (Cambrian, Camaquã Basin), near the basin bordering Encantadas Fault Zone. The studied succession includes alluvial fan deposits that pass laterally into eolian deposits. Sedimentary facies and architectural element analysis were performed, followed by sedimentary petrography and microscopic porosity analysis, aiming to characterize the porosity of the deposits and its spatial distribution. The main objective was to contribute to a better understanding of the porosity spatial distribution in depositional systems characterized by the interaction between alluvial and eolian processes, with special reference to deposits formed prior to the development of terrestrial plants. Porosity values are related to depositional processes, with higher porosities associated to eolian dune deposits (mean of 8.4%), and lower porosity related to interdunes (mean of 3.4%) and alluvial fans (mean of 4.3%). Architectural elements analysis revealed the spatial relationships of these deposits, a response to the interplay of the eolian and alluvial processes. The integration of porosity data reveals that the interaction of alluvial and eolian processes results in heterogeneous distribution of porosity at the facies association scale. Eolian reworking of alluvial facies increases porosity whereas sheet-flood and other alluvial processes in the interdune areas reduce porosity.

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Two known sesquiterpenes (1R*,2S*,3R*,5S*,8S*,9R*)-2,3,5,9-tetramethyltricyclo[6.3.0.0(1,5)]undecan-2-ol and (1S*,2S*,3S*,5S*,8S*,9S*)-2,3,5,9-tetramethyltricyclo-[6.3.0.0(1,5)]undecan-2-ol were isolated for the first time from the essential oil of the red seaweed Laurencia dendroidea collected in the Brazilian coast. These compounds were not active against eight bacteria strains and the yeast Candida albicans, but showed some antioxidant activity. Both compounds were also found in other seaweed species showing that they are not exclusive taxonomic markers to the genus Laurencia.

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Structure of intertidal and subtidal benthic macrofauna in the northeastern region of Todos os Santos Bay (TSB), northeast Brazil, was investigated during a period of two years. Relationships with environmental parameters were studied through uni-and multivariate statistical analyses, and the main distributional patterns shown to be especially related to sediment type and content of organic fractions (Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus), on both temporal and spatial scales. Polychaete annelids accounted for more than 70% of the total fauna and showed low densities, species richness and diversity, except for the area situated on the reef banks. These banks constitute a peculiar environment in relation to the rest of the region by having coarse sediments poor in organic matter and rich in biodetritic carbonates besides an abundant and diverse fauna. The intertidal region and the shallower area nearer to the oil refinery RLAM, with sediments composed mainly of fine sand, seem to constitute an unstable system with few highly dominant species, such as Armandia polyophthalma and Laeonereis acuta. In the other regions of TSB, where muddy bottoms predominated, densities and diversity were low, especially in the stations near the refinery. Here the lowest values of the biological indicators occurred together with the highest organic compound content. In addition, the nearest sites (stations 4 and 7) were sometimes azoic. The adjacent Caboto, considered as a control area at first, presented low density but intermediate values of species diversity, which indicates a less disturbed environment in relation to the pelitic infralittoral in front of the refinery. The results of the ordination analyses evidenced five homogeneous groups of stations (intertidal; reef banks; pelitic infralittoral; mixed sediments; Caboto) with different specific patterns, a fact which seems to be mainly related to granulometry and chemical sediment characteristics.