Canine population dynamics: the potential effect of sterilization campaigns

Objective. To analyze, through mathematical modeling, the potential ability of sterilization campaigns to reduce the population density of pet dogs. Methods. Mathematical models were constructed to simulate the canine population dynamics and project the results of control strategies based on several sterilization rates. Results. Even at high sterilization rates (for example, 0.80 year(-1)), it would take approximately 5 years to reduce density by 20%. Even so, other sources of population growth, such as the importing of dogs from other geographic areas, could outweigh the effects of a sterilization program. Conclusions. A program`s effectiveness is contingent upon not only on the sterilization rate, but also the rate of population growth. Sterilization campaigns may potentially reduce population density, but this reduction may not be immediately evident.

Scavenging processes of atmospheric particulate matter: a numerical modeling of case studies

Below cloud scavenging processes have been investigated considering a numerical simulation, local atmospheric conditions and particulate matter (PM) concentrations, at different sites in Germany. The below cloud scavenging model has been coupled with bulk particulate matter counter TSI (Trust Portacounter dataset, consisting of the variability prediction of the particulate air concentrations during chosen rain events. The TSI samples and meteorological parameters were obtained during three winter Campaigns: at Deuselbach, March 1994, consisting in three different events; Sylt, April 1994 and; Freiburg, March 1995. The results show a good agreement between modeled and observed air concentrations, emphasizing the quality of the conceptual model used in the below cloud scavenging numerical modeling. The results between modeled and observed data have also presented high square Pearson coefficient correlations over 0.7 and significant, except the Freiburg Campaign event. The differences between numerical simulations and observed dataset are explained by the wind direction changes and, perhaps, the absence of advection mass terms inside the modeling. These results validate previous works based on the same conceptual model.

Ichthyoplankton distribution and abundance in the northern Todos os Santos and Camamu Bays, Bahia State - Brazil

The occurrence, distribution and abundance of ichthyoplankton in Todos os Santos and Camamu Bays were analyzed based on four samplings (winter 2003, summer 2003, winter 2004 and summer 2005). Samples were obtained by surface horizontal hauls, using a 200-µm mesh conical-cylinder plankton net. The distribution and abundance of eggs indicate a remarkable seasonal and annual variation of spawning activity in the region, especially when the two summer campaigns are compared. In summer 2003 the highest quantitative values were recorded, especially for Camamu, where the maximum reached 106.56 eggs.m-3, with an overall average of 43.46 eggs.m-3 for the two areas. In summer 2005 values were relatively low, the overall average being 3.49 eggs.m-3. The larval taxonomic composition is characterized by the predominance of gobiids, with small variation from summer to winter. Considering all the campaigns and samplings undertaken in both areas, larvae of 11 families were identified: Engraulidae, Clupeidae, Mugilidae, Atherinopsidae, Hemiramphidae, Syngnathidae, Blenniidae, Carangidae, Gobiidae, Achiridae and Tetraodontidae.

Ichthyofauna in an estuary of the Mataripe area, Todos os Santos Bay, Bahia, Brazil

The community structure and dynamics as well as some biological parameters of selected species of the ichthyofauna of the Mataripe estuarine region affected by the Landulfo Alves Oil Refinery (RLAM) were analyzed. Twenty stations were sampled with a gillnet in five different periods: August and December 2003, March and July/August 2004 and January 2005. Thirty-five actinopterygian species and one elasmobranch species were recorded, Oligoplites saurus, Diapterus rhombeus, Lutjanus synagris and Scomberomorus brasiliensis among them, on all the campaigns. A total of 1368 specimens, weighing 36.10 kg, were caught. The ichthyofauna total biomass was greater, in weight, on the eastern side of the study region, especially at the stations close to the shoals/reefs and the rocky bottom. A similar pattern was also observed for the diversity values. In general, low evenness and diversity were observed in the area studied, possibly as a result of the fishing gear used. D. rhombeus juveniles dominated in all but one of the samplings (July 2004), in which latter Cyclichthys spinosus was dominant. Carangids and species associated with consolidated bottoms were observed, although in small numbers, throughout the study period. In spite of the limitations imposed by the gear used for sampling, the estuarine area influenced by the RLAM was seen to play a role as a growth area for the great majority of species, especially the mojarra (D. rhombeus), but it offers no fishing potential due to the prevalence of young and small individuals. Evidence of imminent spawning was recorded for Pomadasys corvinaeformis in August 2003, and recent spawning in March 2004 for Oligoplites saurus. Further, mature individuals occurred in insufficient numbers to permit population level evaluation.

Hydrodynamics and suspended sediment transport in the Camboriú estuary - Brazil: pre jetty conditions

Estuarine hydrodynamics is a key factor in the definition of the filtering capacity of an estuary and results from the interaction of the processes that control the inlet morphodynamics and those that are acting in the mixing of the water in the estuary. The hydrodynamics and suspended sediment transport in the Camboriú estuary were assessed by two field campaigns conducted in 1998 that covered both neap and spring tide conditions. The period measured represents the estuarine hydrodynamics and sediment transport prior to the construction of the jetty in 2003 and provides important background information for the Camboriú estuary. Each field campaign covered two complete tidal cycles with hourly measurements of currents, salinity, suspended sediment concentration and water level. Results show that the Camboriú estuary is partially mixed with the vertical structure varying as a function of the tidal range and tidal phase. The dynamic estuarine structure can be balanced between the stabilizing effects generated by the vertical density gradient, which produces buoyancy and stratification flows, and the turbulent effects generated by the vertical velocity gradient that generates vertical mixing. The main sediment source for the water column are the bottom sediments, periodically resuspended by the tidal currents. The advective salt and suspended sediment transport was different between neap and spring tides, being more complex at spring tide. The river discharge term was important under both tidal conditions. The tidal correlation term was also important, being dominant in the suspended sediment transport during the spring tide. The gravitational circulation and Stokes drift played a secondary role in the estuarine transport processes.

Hidrodinâmica e transporte de material particulado em suspensão sazonal em um estuário dominado por maré: Estuário de Caravelas (BA)

O objetivo do presente estudo é caracterizar a hidrodinâmica e o transporte de material particulado em suspensão (MPS) no estuário de Caravelas sob diferentes condições de maré e vazão fluvial. Foram realizadas quatro campanhas hidrográficas durante ciclos completos de maré, sendo em condições de maré de sizígia e quadratura, e durante os períodos seco e chuvoso. Dados de nível de água, velocidade e direção de correntes, salinidade, temperatura e turbidez foram obtidos em uma estação fixa próxima da desembocadura do estuário. A partir destes dados foram obtidos os transportes residuais de MPS e calculado os mecanismos de transporte. As maiores concentrações médias de material particulado em suspensão ocorreram em condições de sizígia. Em condições de maré de quadraturao transporte resultante de MPS foi com sentido estuário acima, porém de pequena intensidade. Em condições de sizígia o estuário é caracterizado por correntes mais intensas e assimétricas, com dominância de vazante. Durante a condição de sizígia o estuário pode atuar como importador ou exportador de MPS. O estuário do rio Caravelas foi classificado como bem misturado e fracamente estratificado. A hidrografia e o balanço sedimentar são principalmente modulados pela altura da marée o aporte de água doce é irrelevante.

A descriptive analysis of the seasonal variation of physical oceanographic characteristics in the northern region of the Todos os Santos Bay (Bahia, Brazil)

The results obtained in the August and December 2003, August 2004 and January 2005 oceanographic campaigns in the northern region of the Todos os Santos Bay (lat. 12º44.5'S; long. 038º35.00'W) between the Madre de Deus and Maré islands are analyzed. Instruments of continuous and discrete samplings were used to measure hydrographic properties currents and tides. The water mass of the northern region of the bay is forced by semidiurnal and mesotides of form number 0.08 and the lunar component M2 height was estimated at 91cm. The time series of the surface currents indicated movements in the N/S direction, forced by the tide with maximum magnitudes of 0.73 m.s-1 on the December 2003 campaign. However, in August 2004 the currents were dominated by the wind stress forcing, with a maximum speed of 1.85 m.s-1 and SE direction. Near the bottom, the influence of the tide is not as evident, with a decrease in intensity due to internal and bottom friction, with a maximum velocity of 0.17 m.s-1. The thermal and haline structures were weakly horizontally, as well as vertically stratified, with extreme values varying in the intervals 23ºC (August, 2004) to 28ºC (December, 2003) and 31.0 psu (August, 2003) to 36.0 psu (December, 2003), respectively. Some conclusions may be drawn from these results: i) The signs of the dilution of the fresh water discharges of the Caípe, Mataripe and São Paulo rivers in the region under the influence of the RLAM were observed only during the winter periods, but in the summer the region was flooded by waters of oceanic origin and the salinities above 36.0 indicated TW mass intrusion; ii) The N-S circulation near the RLAM is strongly dominated by the tide, and the importance of the M2 component was unequivocal, however, the E-W component presented some tidal modulation away from abrupt bottom topographical changes, and iii) The residual series, calculated as the difference between the original and modeled, is about ¼ of the original and confirmed its semidiurnal character.

Mortalidade feminina por hipertensão: análise por causas múltiplas

INTRODUÇÃO: A prevalência da hipertensão arterial vem crescendo no país, constituindo-se em um problema de saúde pública por sua magnitude e dificuldades no controle. OBJETIVO: Avaliar a qualidade dos dados sobre hipertensão como causa de morte e verificar o ganho de informação na mortalidade por hipertensão arterial de mulheres de 10 a 49 anos, por meio da metodologia de análise por causas múltiplas de morte. MATERIAL E MÉTODOS: Foi constituída uma base de dados com 7.332 óbitos ocorridos no primeiro semestre de 2002 pertencentes ao "Estudo da Morbi-Mortalidade de Mulheres de 10 a 49 anos". A metodologia RAMOS (Reproductive Age Mortality Survey) foi aplicada em todas as capitais de Estados brasileiros e Distrito Federal. Com as informações adicionais, foi preenchida uma nova declaração de óbito - DO-NOVA. Foram analisados dois conjuntos de dados (DO-ORIGINAL - antes da investigação - e DO-NOVA - após resgate das informações. Foram realizadas comparações segundo causas básicas e múltiplas por fontes dos dados (DO-O, DO-N). RESULTADOS E CONCLUSÃO: A DO-ORIGINAL apresentou algumas falhas quantitativas e qualitativas. Concluiu-se que a análise por causas múltiplas enriquece a informação, com base nas DO. São necessárias ações contínuas para um melhor preenchimento da DO, pelos médicos, e deve haver mais estudos que adotem a metodologia de causas múltiplas.

Uso de sistemas de informação geográfica em campanhas de vacinação contra a raiva

OBJETIVO: Desenvolver método para planejamento e avaliação de campanhas de vacinação contra a raiva animal. MÉTODOS: O desenvolvimento da metodologia baseou-se em sistemas de informação geográfica para estimar a população e a densidade animal (canina e felina) por setores censitários e subprefeituras do município de São Paulo, em 2002. O número de postos de vacinação foi estimado para atingir uma dada cobertura vacinal. Foram utilizadas uma base de dados censitários para a população humana, e estimativas para razões cão:habitante e gato:habitante. RESULTADOS: Os números estimados foram de 1.490.500 cães e 226.954 gatos em São Paulo, uma densidade populacional de 1.138,14 animais domiciliados por km². Foram vacinados, na campanha de 2002, 926.462 animais, garantindo uma cobertura vacinal de 54%. O número total estimado de postos no município para atingir uma cobertura vacinal de 70%, vacinando em média 700 animais por posto foi de 1.729. Estas estimativas foram apresentadas em mapas de densidade animal, segundo setores censitários e subprefeituras. CONCLUSÕES: A metodologia desenvolvida pode ser aplicada de forma sistemática no planejamento e no acompanhamento das campanhas de vacinação contra a raiva, permitindo que sejam identificadas áreas de cobertura vacinal crítica.

Brazilian foreign policy: Old and new paths as regards institutional aspects, multilateralism and foreign policy towards the South

This paper emphasizes the important changes in Brazilian foreign policy after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took tip the power in 2002. The paper defends the idea that it is not possible to argue that there were deep changes in comparison to Cardoso's administration. However, evidence shows that new things are happening as regards the design of a more active and clear foreign action line which led to institutional changes and to more incisive multilateral paths. This results both from the political profile of the direct operators of foreign policy and the aims of lite presidential diplomacy, The hypothesis dealt with on this paper consists on the fact that Lula's administration has not fully broken with the old administration practices, however the aims of global and regional integration are being plotted more clearly and with a higher degree of activism. This becomes clear in three aspects of the Brazilian foreign policy: the institutional framework, the practice of multilateralism and the foreign policy towards the South, the three topics analyzed in this paper.

Vaccination in Brazilian HIV-infected adults: A cross-sectional study

HIV-infected patients are at risk for vaccine-preventable infections. The Brazilian National Immunization Program provided recommendations for this population. However, the vaccine coverage reached by this program is unknown. This study aimed at evaluating the vaccine coverage of HIV-infected adults followed at Hospital das Clinicas, University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine. Data were collected on age, gender, mode of HIV transmission, Centers for Disease Classification 1993 classification (CDC/93), antiretrovirals, CD4 count, HIV viral load, and immunization charts, from April 2003 to August 2004. We interviewed 144 randomly selected patients, 74% male; mean age, 39.95 years; CDC classification: A, 40.6%; B, 19.6%; and C, 39.9%. Most of patients were undergoing highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART; 86.8%). Mean CD4 count 442.6 cells/mm(3). Viral load less than 400 copies per milliliter in 59.4% of patients. Only 36.1% of patients were adequately immunized for diphtheria/tetanus, 54.9% for pneumococcus, 24.3% for flu, and 76.9% for hepatitis B. In relation to live attenuated vaccines, 5 patients received measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine and 7 patients yellow fever vaccine. Two patients were vaccinated against yellow fever despite CD4 less than 200 cell/mm(3). We verified poor vaccine coverage in HIV-infected patients. Vaccination campaigns and incorporation of vaccine rooms in sexually transmitted disease (STD)/AIDS clinics could improve this situation.

Toxic and essential elements in blood from delivering women in selected areas of Sao Paulo State, Brazil

This study was designed to evaluate the degree of environmental contamination and possible exposure of pregnant women to toxic elements in seven selected areas of Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The overall median concentration of Mo in maternal blood was 0.53 mu g L(-1), highly significant differences found between sites (p < 0.0001). Cd was found to be low overall - 0.09 mu g L(-1) (0.01-0.58 mu g L(-1)) - with mothers from the Coastal and Rural 1 sites having the highest levels (p < 0.016). Median Hg concentration was 0.60 mu g L (1) (0.06 mu g L (1)-4.35 mu g L (1)); median Pb level was 16.2 mu g L (1) (3.5-57.7 mu g L(-1)) and no differences between sites were observed for both metals. Median Mn level was 16.7 mu g L(-1) (7.0-39.7 mu g L(-1)), being highest in Urban 2 site (p < 0.016). Concentrations of maternal Co were found to range between 0.06 mu g L(-1) and 1.1 mu g L(-1) (median 0.25 mu g L(-1)) and As level was 0.60 mu g L(-1) (0.10-3.8 mu g L(-1)) overall, with no statistical significance between sites for Co and As. Median Se concentrations were found to be 64 mg L(-1) (36-233 mu g L(-1)), with the highest median levels found in Urban 3 site; site differences were statistically significant (p < 0.0001). Correlation for each element (between paired maternal and cord blood) was measured only in Rural site 1; significant correlation was shown for Hg, Pb, Mn and Co (p < 0.05). These findings may be interpreted as indicating low environmental contamination in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. These findings could also indicate that pregnant women have little or no contact with pollutants, possibly due to awareness campaigns carried out by public health practitioners.

The Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) - Part 1: Model description and evaluation

We introduce the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). CATT-BRAMS is an on-line transport model fully consistent with the simulated atmospheric dynamics. Emission sources from biomass burning and urban-industrial-vehicular activities for trace gases and from biomass burning aerosol particles are obtained from several published datasets and remote sensing information. The tracer and aerosol mass concentration prognostics include the effects of sub-grid scale turbulence in the planetary boundary layer, convective transport by shallow and deep moist convection, wet and dry deposition, and plume rise associated with vegetation fires in addition to the grid scale transport. The radiation parameterization takes into account the interaction between the simulated biomass burning aerosol particles and short and long wave radiation. The atmospheric model BRAMS is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), with several improvements associated with cumulus convection representation, soil moisture initialization and surface scheme tuned for the tropics, among others. In this paper the CATT-BRAMS model is used to simulate carbon monoxide and particulate material (PM(2.5)) surface fluxes and atmospheric transport during the 2002 LBA field campaigns, conducted during the transition from the dry to wet season in the southwest Amazon Basin. Model evaluation is addressed with comparisons between model results and near surface, radiosondes and airborne measurements performed during the field campaign, as well as remote sensing derived products. We show the matching of emissions strengths to observed carbon monoxide in the LBA campaign. A relatively good comparison to the MOPITT data, in spite of the fact that MOPITT a priori assumptions imply several difficulties, is also obtained.

Forest-related partnerships in Brazilian Amazonia: There is more to sustainable forest management than reduced impact logging

There is more to sustainable forest management than reduced impact logging. Partnerships between multiple actors are needed in order to create the institutional context for good forest governance and sustainable forest management and stimulate the necessary local community involvement. The idea behind this is that the parties would be able to achieve more jointly than on their own by combining assets, knowledge, skills and political power of actors at different levels of scale. This article aims to demonstrate by example the nature and variety of forest-related partnerships in Brazilian Amazonia. Based on the lessons learned from these cases and the authors` experience, the principal characteristics of successful partnerships are described, with a focus on political and socioeconomic aspects. These characteristics include fairly negotiated partnership objectives, the active involvement of the public sector as well as impartial brokers, equitable and cost-effective institutional arrangements, sufficient and equitably shared benefits for all the parties involved, addressing socioeconomic drawbacks, and taking measures to maintain sustainable exploitation levels. The authors argue that, in addition to product-oriented partnerships which focus on sustainable forest management, there is also a need for politically oriented partnerships based on civil society coalitions. The watchdog function of these politically oriented partnerships, their awareness-raising campaigns regarding detrimental policies and practices, and advocacy for good forest governance are essential for the creation of the appropriate legal and political framework for sustainable forest management. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.