Predictive Validity of Waterlow Scale for Pressure Ulcer Development Risk in Hospitalized Patients

AIM: We sought to evaluate the predictive validity of the Waterlow Scale in hospitalized patients. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: The study was conducted at a general private hospital with 220 beds and a mean time of hospitalization of 7.4 days and a mean occupation rate of approximately 80%. Adult patients with a Braden Scale score of 18 or less and a Waterlow Scale score of 16 or more were studied. The sample consisted of 98 patients with a mean age of 71.1 +/- 15.5 years. METHODS: Skin assessment and scoring by using the Waterlow and Braden scales were completed on alternate days. Patients were examined at least 3 times to be considered for analysis. The data were submitted to sensitivity and specificity analysis by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and positive (+LR) and negative (-LR) likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The cutoff scores were 17, 20, and 20 in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. Sensitivity was 71.4%, 85.7%, and 85.7% and specificity was 67.0%, 40.7%, and 32.9%, respectively. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve revealed good accuracy (0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.93) only for the cutoff score 17 in the first assessment. The results also showed probabilities of 14%, 10%, and 9% for the development of pressure ulcer when the test results were positive (+LR) and of 3% (-LR) when the test results were negative for the cutoff scores in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. CONCLUSION: The Waterlow Scale achieved good predictive validity in predicting pressure ulcer in hospitalized patients when a cutoff score of 17 was used in the first assessment.

PREDICTIVE FACTORS FOR GAIT IN FEMORAL TRANSTROCHANTERIC FRACTURES

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify variables that could predict the quality of gait in patients with transtrochanteric femoral fractures after treatment. Materials and Methods: Hospitalized patients diagnosed with transtrochanteric femoral fractures were selected between September/2005 and August/2006 and followed-up for 6 months after the trauma date. An observational prospective study was conducted to assess the quality of gait 3 and 6 months after fracture in 31 patients (13 males and 18 females). The mean age was 76 +/- 2,7. Results: Seven patients (22,6%) passed away during the follow-up period. The patients with associated fractures or with four or more co-morbidities showed a worse quality of gait after 6 months. Patients without orthopaedic complications or who got partial weight load prior to 30 days showed a better performance. Conclusion: The quantification of predictive gait indexes allows us to propose new treatment approaches consistently to the different realities showed by each group of patients.

Predictive factors for the development of visual loss in patients with pituitary macroadenomas and for visual recovery after optic pathway decompression

Objective: To investigate clinical and MRI findings that are predictive of both visual loss in patients with pituitary adenomas and visual recovery after treatment. Design: Cohort study. Participants: Thirty patients (60 eyes) with pituitary adenoma. Methods: Patients underwent neuro-ophthalmic examination and MRI before and after optic chiasm decompression. Visual field (VF) was assessed using the mean deviation in standard automated perimetry (SAP) and temporal mean defect, the average of 22 temporal values of the total deviation plot. Tumour size was measured on sagittal and coronal cuts. Results: Visual loss was found in 47 eyes; 35 had optic atrophy (subtle in 9, moderate in 14, and severe in 12). Before treatment, the average SAP mean deviation and temporal mean defect were -11.78 (SD 8.56) dB and -18.66 (SD 11.20) dB, respectively. The chiasm was 17.3 (SD 6.2, range 10-34) mm above the reference line on the sagittal and 21.8 (SD 8.3, range 12-39) mm on the coronal images. Tumour size correlated with the severity of VF defect. VF improvement occurred in 80% of eyes after treatment. The degree of optic atrophy, visual loss, and tumour size were significantly associated with improvement after treatment. Conclusions: The best predictive factor for visual loss was tumour size, and factors related to visual recovery were the degree of optic atrophy, the severity of VF defect, and the tumour size. Diagnosing pituitary adenomas before optic atrophy becomes severe may be related to a better prognosis in such patients.

Renin angiotensin system and cardiac hypertrophy after sinoaortic denervation in rats

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of angiotensin I, II and 1-7 on left ventricular hypertrophy of Wistar and spontaneously hypertensive rats submitted to sinoaortic denervation. METHODS: Ten weeks after sinoaortic denervation, hemodynamic and morphofunctional parameters were analyzed, and the left ventricle was dissected for biochemical analyses. RESULTS: Hypertensive groups (controls and denervated) showed an increase on mean blood pressure compared with normotensive ones (controls and denervated). Blood pressure variability was higher in denervated groups than in their respective controls. Left ventricular mass and collagen content were increased in the normotensive denervated and in both spontaneously hypertensive groups compared with Wistar controls. Both hypertensive groups presented a higher concentration of angiotensin II than Wistar controls, whereas angiotensin 1-7 concentration was decreased in the hypertensive denervated group in relation to the Wistar groups. There was no difference in angiotensin I concentration among groups. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that not only blood pressure variability and reduced baroreflex sensitivity but also elevated levels of angiotensin II and a reduced concentration of angiotensin 1-7 may contribute to the development of left ventricular hypertrophy. These data indicate that baroreflex dysfunction associated with changes in the renin angiotensin system may be predictive factors of left ventricular hypertrophy and cardiac failure.

Impact on human health of particulate matter emitted from burnings in the Brazilian Amazon region

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact on human health of exposure to particulate matter emitted from burnings in the Brazilian Amazon region. METHODS: This was an ecological study using an environmental exposure indicator presented as the percentage of annual hours (AH%) of PM2.5 above 80 μg/m3. The outcome variables were the rates of hospitalization due to respiratory disease among children, the elderly and the intermediate age group, and due to childbirth. Data were obtained from the National Space Research Institute and the Ministry of Health for all of the microregions of the Brazilian Amazon region, for the years 2004 and 2005. Multiple regression models for the outcome variables in relation to the predictive variable AH% of PM2.5 above 80 μg/m3 were analyzed. The Human Development Index (HDI) and mean number of complete blood counts per 100 inhabitants in the Brazilian Amazon region were the control variables in the regression analyses. RESULTS: The association of the exposure indicator (AH%) was higher for the elderly than for other age groups (β = 0.10). For each 1% increase in the exposure indicator there was an increase of 8% in child hospitalization, 10% in hospitalization of the elderly, and 5% for the intermediate age group, even after controlling for HDI and mean number of complete blood counts. No association was found between the AH% and hospitalization due to childbirth. CONCLUSIONS: The indicator of atmospheric pollution showed an association with occurrences of respiratory diseases in the Brazilian Amazon region, especially in the more vulnerable age groups. This indicator may be used to assess the effects of forest burning on human health.

Análises do matching de identidade generalizado por contingências de três e quatro termos: implicações para equivalência de estímulos

A expansão da tríplice continência em unidades com quatro ou mais elementos abriu novas perspectivas para a compreensão de comportamentos complexos, como a emergência de respostas que derivam da formação de classes de estímulos equivalentes e que modelam comportamentos simbólicos e conceituais. Na investigação experimental, o procedimento de matching to sample tem sido frequentemente empregado para estabelecer discriminações condicionais. Em particular, a obtenção do matching de identidade generalizado é considerada demonstrativa da aquisição dos conceitos de igualdade e diferença. Segundo argumentamos, o fato de se buscar a compreensão desses conceitos a partir de processos discriminativos condicionais pode ter sido responsável pelos frequentes fracassos em demonstrá-los em sujeitos não humanos. A falta de correspondência entre os processos discriminativos responsáveis por estabelecer a relação de reflexividade entre estímulos que formam classes equivalentes e o matching de identidade generalizado, nesse sentido, é aqui revista ao longo de estudos empíricos e discutida com respeito às suas implicações.

Impacto da adequação da oferta energética sobre a mortalidade em pacientes de UTI recebendo nutrição enteral

OBJETIVO: Investigar a relação entre adequação da oferta energética e mortalidade na unidade de terapia intensiva em pacientes sob terapia nutricional enteral exclusiva. MÉTODOS: Estudo observacional prospectivo conduzido em uma unidade de terapia intensiva em 2008 e 2009. Foram incluídos pacientes >18 anos que receberam terapia nutricional enteral por >72h. A adequação da oferta de energia foi estimada pela razão administrado/prescrito. Para a investigação da relação entre variáveis preditoras (adequação da oferta energética, escore APACHE II, sexo, idade e tempo de permanência na unidade de terapia intensiva e o desfecho mortalidade na unidade de terapia intensiva, utilizou-se o modelo de regressão logística não condicional. RESULTADOS: Foram incluídos 63 pacientes (média 58 anos, mortalidade 27%), 47,6% dos quais receberam mais de 90% da energia prescrita (adequação média 88,2%). O balanço energético médio foi de -190 kcal/dia. Observou-se associação significativa entre ocorrência de óbito e as variáveis idade e tempo de permanência na unidade de terapia intensiva, após a retirada das variáveis adequação da oferta energética, APACHE II e sexo durante o processo de modelagem. CONCLUSÃO: A adequação da oferta energética não influenciou a taxa de mortalidade na unidade de terapia intensiva. Protocolos de infusão de nutrição enteral seguidos criteriosamente, com adequação administrado/prescrito acima de 70%, parecem ser suficientes para não interferirem na mortalidade. Dessa forma, pode-se questionar a obrigatoriedade de atingir índices próximos a 100%, considerando a elevada frequência com que ocorrem interrupções no fornecimento de dieta enteral devido a intolerância gastrointestinal e jejuns para exames e procedimentos. Pesquisas futuras poderão identificar a meta ideal de adequação da oferta energética que resulte em redução significativa de complicações, mortalidade e custos.

Ratio of weight to height gain: a useful tool for identifying children at risk of becoming overweight or obese at preschool age

PURPOSE: To analyze the usefulness of the weight gain/height gain ratio from birth to two and three years of age as a predictive risk indicator of excess weight at preschool age. METHODS: The weight and height/length of 409 preschool children at daycare centers were measured according to internationally recommended rules. The weight values and body mass indices of the children were transformed into a z-score per the standard method described by the World Health Organization. The Pearson correlation coefficients (rP) and the linear regressions between the anthropometric parameters and the body mass index z-scores of preschool children were statistically analyzed (alpha = 0.05). RESULTS: The mean age of the study population was 3.2 years (± 0.3 years). The prevalence of excess weight was 28.8%, and the prevalence of overweight and obesity was 8.8%. The correlation coefficients between the body mass index z-scores of the preschool children and the birth weights or body mass indices at birth were low (0.09 and 0.10, respectively). There was a high correlation coefficient (rP = 0.79) between the mean monthly gain of weight and the body mass index z-score of preschool children. A higher coefficient (rP = 0.93) was observed between the ratio of the mean weight gain per height gain (g/cm) and the preschool children body mass index z-score. The coefficients and their differences were statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Regardless of weight or length at birth, the mean ratio between the weight gain per g/cm of height growth from birth presented a strong correlation with the body mass index of preschool children. These results suggest that this ratio may be a good indicator of the risk of excess weight and obesity in preschool-aged children.

Menopausal status: a possible predictive factor for recurrence in women with cancer of the uterine cervix without pelvic lymph node metastasis

Abstract Objectives to evaluate risk factors for recurrence of carcinoma of the uterine cervix among women who had undergone radical hysterectomy without pelvic lymph node metastasis, while taking into consideration not only the classical histopathological factors but also sociodemographic, clinical and treatment-related factors. Study desin This was an exploratory analysis on 233 women with carcinoma of the uterine cervix (stages IB and IIA) who were treated by means of radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy, with free surgical margins and without lymph node metastases on conventional histopathological examination. Women with histologically normal lymph nodes but with micrometastases in the immunohistochemical analysis (AE1/AE3) were excluded. Disease-free survival for sociodemographic, clinical and histopathological variables was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Twenty-seven recurrences were recorded (11.6%), of which 18 were pelvic, four were distant, four were pelvic + distant and one was of unknown location. The five-year disease-free survival rate among the study population was 88.4%. The independent risk factors for recurrence in the multivariate analysis were: postmenopausal status (HR 14.1; 95% CI: 3.7-53.6; P < 0.001), absence of or slight inflammatory reaction (HR 7.9; 95% CI: 1.7-36.5; P = 0.008) and invasion of the deepest third of the cervix (HR 6.1; 95% CI: 1.3-29.1; P = 0.021). Postoperative radiotherapy was identified as a protective factor against recurrence (HR 0.02; 95% CI: 0.001-0.25; P = 0.003). (To continue) Postmenopausal status is a possible independent risk factor for recurrence even when adjusted for classical prognostic factors (such as tumour size, depth of tumour invasion, capillary embolisation) and treatment-related factors (period of treatment and postoperative radiotherapy status)

Influence of memory in deterministic walks in random media: Analytical calculation within a mean-field approximation

Consider a random medium consisting of N points randomly distributed so that there is no correlation among the distances separating them. This is the random link model, which is the high dimensionality limit (mean-field approximation) for the Euclidean random point structure. In the random link model, at discrete time steps, a walker moves to the nearest point, which has not been visited in the last mu steps (memory), producing a deterministic partially self-avoiding walk (the tourist walk). We have analytically obtained the distribution of the number n of points explored by the walker with memory mu=2, as well as the transient and period joint distribution. This result enables us to explain the abrupt change in the exploratory behavior between the cases mu=1 (memoryless walker, driven by extreme value statistics) and mu=2 (walker with memory, driven by combinatorial statistics). In the mu=1 case, the mean newly visited points in the thermodynamic limit (N >> 1) is just < n >=e=2.72... while in the mu=2 case, the mean number < n > of visited points grows proportionally to N(1/2). Also, this result allows us to establish an equivalence between the random link model with mu=2 and random map (uncorrelated back and forth distances) with mu=0 and the abrupt change between the probabilities for null transient time and subsequent ones.

An empirical evaluation of imputation accuracy for association statistics reveals increased type-I error rates in genome-wide associations

Background: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) are becoming the approach of choice to identify genetic determinants of complex phenotypes and common diseases. The astonishing amount of generated data and the use of distinct genotyping platforms with variable genomic coverage are still analytical challenges. Imputation algorithms combine directly genotyped markers information with haplotypic structure for the population of interest for the inference of a badly genotyped or missing marker and are considered a near zero cost approach to allow the comparison and combination of data generated in different studies. Several reports stated that imputed markers have an overall acceptable accuracy but no published report has performed a pair wise comparison of imputed and empiric association statistics of a complete set of GWAS markers. Results: In this report we identified a total of 73 imputed markers that yielded a nominally statistically significant association at P < 10(-5) for type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and compared them with results obtained based on empirical allelic frequencies. Interestingly, despite their overall high correlation, association statistics based on imputed frequencies were discordant in 35 of the 73 (47%) associated markers, considerably inflating the type I error rate of imputed markers. We comprehensively tested several quality thresholds, the haplotypic structure underlying imputed markers and the use of flanking markers as predictors of inaccurate association statistics derived from imputed markers. Conclusions: Our results suggest that association statistics from imputed markers showing specific MAF (Minor Allele Frequencies) range, located in weak linkage disequilibrium blocks or strongly deviating from local patterns of association are prone to have inflated false positive association signals. The present study highlights the potential of imputation procedures and proposes simple procedures for selecting the best imputed markers for follow-up genotyping studies.

Predictive factors of non-deterioration of glucose tolerance following a 2-year behavioral intervention

Aim: To identify predictive factors associated with non-deterioration of glucose metabolism following a 2-year behavioral intervention in Japanese-Brazilians. Methods: 295 adults (59.7% women) without diabetes completed 2-year intervention program. Characteristics of those who maintained/improved glucose tolerance status (non-progressors) were compared with those who worsened (progressors) after the intervention. In logistic regression analysis, the condition of non-progressor was used as dependent variable. Results: Baseline characteristics of non-progressors (71.7%) and progressors were similar, except for the former being younger and having higher frequency of disturbed glucose tolerance and lower C-reactive protein (CRP). In logistic regression, non-deterioration of glucose metabolism was associated with disturbed glucose tolerance impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance - (p < 0.001) and CRP levels <= 0.04 mg/dL (p = 0.01), adjusted for age and anthropometric variables. Changes in anthropometry and physical activity and achievement of weight and dietary goals after intervention were similar in subsets that worsened or not the glucose tolerance status. Conclusion: The whole sample presented a homogeneous behavior during the intervention. Lower CRP levels and diagnosis of glucose intolerance at baseline were predictors of non-deterioration of the glucose metabolism after a relatively simple intervention, independent of body adiposity.

Predictive values of aspartate aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transferase for the hepatic accumulation of copper in cattle and buffalo

Ten cattle and 10 buffalo were divided into 2 groups (control [n = 8] and experimental [n = 12]) that received daily administration of copper. Three hepatic biopsies and blood samples were performed on days 0, 45, and 105. The concentration of hepatic copper was determined by spectrophotometric atomic absorption, and the activities of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) were analyzed. Regression analyses were done to verify the possible existing relationship between enzymatic activity and concentration of hepatic copper. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and positive and negative predictive values were determined. The serum activities of AST and GGT had coefficients of determination that were excellent predictive indicators of hepatic copper accumulation in cattle, while only GGT serum activity was predictive of hepatic copper accumulation in buffalo. Elevated serum GGT activity may be indicative of increased concentrations of hepatic copper even in cattle and buffalo that appear to be clinically healthy. Thus, prophylactic measures can be implemented to prevent the onset of a hemolytic crisis that is characteristic of copper intoxication.

A frequency approach to identifying asteroid families II. Families interacting with nonlinear secular resonances and low-order mean-motion resonances

Aims. In an earlier paper we introduced a new method for determining asteroid families where families were identified in the proper frequency domain (n, g, g + s) ( where n is the mean-motion, and g and s are the secular frequencies of the longitude of pericenter and nodes, respectively), rather than in the proper element domain (a, e, sin(i)) (semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination). Here we improve our techniques for reliably identifying members of families that interact with nonlinear secular resonances of argument other than g or g + s and for asteroids near or in mean-motion resonant configurations. Methods. We introduce several new distance metrics in the frequency space optimal for determining the diffusion in secular resonances of argument 2g - s, 3g - s, g - s, s, and 2s. We also regularize the dependence of the g frequency as a function of the n frequency (Vesta family) or of the eccentricity e (Hansa family). Results. Our new approaches allow us to recognize as family members objects that were lost with previous methods, while keeping the advantages of the Carruba & Michtchenko (2007, A& A, 475, 1145) approach. More important, an analysis in the frequency domain permits a deeper understanding of the dynamical evolution of asteroid families not always obtainable with an analysis in the proper element domain.

Nonuniversal behavior for aperiodic interactions within a mean-field approximation

We study the spin-1/2 Ising model on a Bethe lattice in the mean-field limit, with the interaction constants following one of two deterministic aperiodic sequences, the Fibonacci or period-doubling one. New algorithms of sequence generation were implemented, which were fundamental in obtaining long sequences and, therefore, precise results. We calculate the exact critical temperature for both sequences, as well as the critical exponents beta, gamma, and delta. For the Fibonacci sequence, the exponents are classical, while for the period-doubling one they depend on the ratio between the two exchange constants. The usual relations between critical exponents are satisfied, within error bars, for the period-doubling sequence. Therefore, we show that mean-field-like procedures may lead to nonclassical critical exponents.