Evaluating the efficiency of fractional integration parameter estimators

This article deals with the efficiency of fractional integration parameter estimators. This study was based on Monte Carlo experiments involving simulated stochastic processes with integration orders in the range]-1,1[. The evaluated estimation methods were classified into two groups: heuristics and semiparametric/maximum likelihood (ML). The study revealed that the comparative efficiency of the estimators, measured by the lesser mean squared error, depends on the stationary/non-stationary and persistency/anti-persistency conditions of the series. The ML estimator was shown to be superior for stationary persistent processes; the wavelet spectrum-based estimators were better for non-stationary mean reversible and invertible anti-persistent processes; the weighted periodogram-based estimator was shown to be superior for non-invertible anti-persistent processes.

Parameterization and Evaluation of Predictions of DSSAT/CANEGRO for Brazilian Sugarcane

The DSSAT/CANEGRO model was parameterized and its predictions evaluated using data from five sugarcane (Sacchetrum spp.) experiments conducted in southern Brazil. The data used are from two of the most important Brazilian cultivars. Some parameters whose values were either directly measured or considered to be well known were not adjusted. Ten of the 20 parameters were optimized using a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) algorithm using the leave-one-out cross-validation technique. Model predictions were evaluated using measured data of leaf area index (LA!), stalk and aerial dry mass, sucrose content, and soil water content, using bias, root mean squared error (RMSE), modeling efficiency (Eff), correlation coefficient, and agreement index. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)/CANEGRO model simulated the sugarcane crop in southern Brazil well, using the parameterization reported here. The soil water content predictions were better for rainfed (mean RMSE = 0.122mm) than for irrigated treatment (mean RMSE = 0.214mm). Predictions were best for aerial dry mass (Eff = 0.850), followed by stalk dry mass (Eff = 0.765) and then sucrose mass (Eff = 0.170). Number of green leaves showed the worst fit (Eff = -2.300). The cross-validation technique permits using multiple datasets that would have limited use if used independently because of the heterogeneity of measures and measurement strategies.

Low-frequency Raman spectra and fragility of imidazolium ionic liquids

Raman spectra within the 5-200 cm(-1) range have been recorded as a function of temperature for different ionic liquids based on imidazolium cations. A correlation has been found between fragility and the temperature dependence of the strength of fast relaxational motions. Understanding quasielastic scattering as the relaxational contribution to ionic mean-squared displacement elucidates some effects on ionic liquids' fragility resulting from modifications in the chemical structure. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3462962]

Intermolecular vibrations and fast relaxations in supercooled ionic liquids

Short-time dynamics of ionic liquids has been investigated by low-frequency Raman spectroscopy (4 < omega < 100 cm(-1)) within the supercooled liquid range. Raman spectra are reported for ionic liquids with the same anion, bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide, and different cations: 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium, 1-hexyl-3-methylimidazolium, 1-butyl-1-methylpiperidinium, trimethylbutylammonium, and tributylmethylammonium. It is shown that low-frequency Raman spectroscopy provides similar results as optical Kerr effect (OKE) spectroscopy, which has been used to study intermolecular vibrations in ionic liquids. The comparison of ionic liquids containing aromatic and non-aromatic cations identifies the characteristic feature in Raman spectra usually assigned to librational motion of the imidazolium ring. The strength of the fast relaxations (quasi-elastic scattering, QES) and the intermolecular vibrational contribution (boson peak) of ionic liquids with non-aromatic cations are significantly lower than imidazolium ionic liquids. A correlation length assigned to the boson peak vibrations was estimated from the frequency of the maximum of the boson peak and experimental data of sound velocity. The correlation length related to the boson peak (similar to 19 angstrom) does not change with the length of the alkyl chain in imidazolium cations, in contrast to the position of the first-sharp diffraction peak observed in neutron and X-ray scattering measurements of ionic liquids. The rate of change of the QES intensity in the supercooled liquid range is compared with data of excess entropy, free volume, and mean-squared displacement recently reported for ionic liquids. The temperature dependence of the QES intensity in ionic liquids illustrates relationships between short-time dynamics and long-time structural relaxation that have been proposed for glass-forming liquids. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3604533]

Distributed power control algorithm for multiple access systems based on Verhulst model

In this paper the continuous Verhulst dynamic model is used to synthesize a new distributed power control algorithm (DPCA) for use in direct sequence code division multiple access (DS-CDMA) systems. The Verhulst model was initially designed to describe the population growth of biological species under food and physical space restrictions. The discretization of the corresponding differential equation is accomplished via the Euler numeric integration (ENI) method. Analytical convergence conditions for the proposed DPCA are also established. Several properties of the proposed recursive algorithm, such as Euclidean distance from optimum vector after convergence, convergence speed, normalized mean squared error (NSE), average power consumption per user, performance under dynamics channels, and implementation complexity aspects, are analyzed through simulations. The simulation results are compared with two other DPCAs: the classic algorithm derived by Foschini and Miljanic and the sigmoidal of Uykan and Koivo. Under estimated errors conditions, the proposed DPCA exhibits smaller discrepancy from the optimum power vector solution and better convergence (under fixed and adaptive convergence factor) than the classic and sigmoidal DPCAs. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Determination of the median lethal concentration (LC(50)) of mycoinsecticides for the control of Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae)

The aim of this study was to determine the median lethal concentration (LC(50)) of the commercial products Boveril WP (R) (Beauveria bassiana) and Metarril WP (R) (Metarhizium anisopliae) on the larvae and pupae of the fruit Ceratitis capitata. Insects used in this study came from a laboratory colony. The evaluated product concentrations were 10.00, 15.00, 20.00 and 25.00 g/L of water, which correspond, respectively, to 5.00x10(9), 7.50x10(9), 10.00x10(9) and 12.50x10(9) viable conidia/L of water for the two products, and in the control only water was applied. Third instar larvae and pupae of C. capitata were used in this study. Results showed an overall mortality of larvae with all conidial concentrations of M. anisopliae. The LC(50) values for larvae were 2.99 and 2.97 g/L for Boveril (R) and Metarril (R), respectively, while for pupae they were 3.12 and 4.74 g/L for Boveril (R) and Metarril (R), respectively. The high pathogenicity demonstrated by lower conidial concentrations of the tested products may mean greater efficiency from both economic and environmental points of view.

Gastric Bypass and Cardiac Autonomic Activity: Influence of Gender and Age

Obesity is associated with increased sympathetic activity and higher mortality. Treatment of this condition is often frustrating. Roux-en-Y gastric bypass is the most effective technique nowadays for treatment of obesity. The aim of the present study is to assess the effects of this surgery on the cardiac autonomic activity, including the influence of gender and age, through heart rate variability (HRV) analysis. The study group consisted of 71 obese patients undergoing gastric bypass. Time domain measures of HRV, obtained from 24-h Holter recordings, were evaluated before and 6 months after surgery, and the results were compared. Percentage of interval differences of successive normal sinus beats greater than 50 ms (pNN50) and square root of the mean squared differences of successive normal sinus beat intervals (rMSSD) was used to estimate the short-term components of HRV, related to the parasympathetic activity. Standard deviation of intervals between all normal sinus beats (SDNN) was related to overall HRV. SDNN, pNN50, and rMSSD showed significant increase 6 months after surgery (p < 0.001, p = 0.001 and p = 0.002, respectively). Men presented a greater increase of SDNN than women (p = 0.006) during the follow-up. There was a difference in rMSSD evolution for age groups (p = 0.002). Only younger patients presented significant increase of rMSSD. Overall HRV increased 6 months after surgery; this increase was more evident in men. Cardiac parasympathetic activity increased also, but in younger patients only.

Recording from Two Neurons: Second-Order Stimulus Reconstruction from Spike Trains and Population Coding

We study the reconstruction of visual stimuli from spike trains, representing the reconstructed stimulus by a Volterra series up to second order. We illustrate this procedure in a prominent example of spiking neurons, recording simultaneously from the two H1 neurons located in the lobula plate of the fly Chrysomya megacephala. The fly views two types of stimuli, corresponding to rotational and translational displacements. Second-order reconstructions require the manipulation of potentially very large matrices, which obstructs the use of this approach when there are many neurons. We avoid the computation and inversion of these matrices using a convenient set of basis functions to expand our variables in. This requires approximating the spike train four-point functions by combinations of two-point functions similar to relations, which would be true for gaussian stochastic processes. In our test case, this approximation does not reduce the quality of the reconstruction. The overall contribution to stimulus reconstruction of the second-order kernels, measured by the mean squared error, is only about 5% of the first-order contribution. Yet at specific stimulus-dependent instants, the addition of second-order kernels represents up to 100% improvement, but only for rotational stimuli. We present a perturbative scheme to facilitate the application of our method to weakly correlated neurons.

Performance of balanced two-stage empirical predictors of realized cluster latent values from finite populations: A simulation study

Predictors of random effects are usually based on the popular mixed effects (ME) model developed under the assumption that the sample is obtained from a conceptual infinite population; such predictors are employed even when the actual population is finite. Two alternatives that incorporate the finite nature of the population are obtained from the superpopulation model proposed by Scott and Smith (1969. Estimation in multi-stage surveys. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 64, 830-840) or from the finite population mixed model recently proposed by Stanek and Singer (2004. Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 1119-1130). Predictors derived under the latter model with the additional assumptions that all variance components are known and that within-cluster variances are equal have smaller mean squared error (MSE) than the competitors based on either the ME or Scott and Smith`s models. As population variances are rarely known, we propose method of moment estimators to obtain empirical predictors and conduct a simulation study to evaluate their performance. The results suggest that the finite population mixed model empirical predictor is more stable than its competitors since, in terms of MSE, it is either the best or the second best and when second best, its performance lies within acceptable limits. When both cluster and unit intra-class correlation coefficients are very high (e.g., 0.95 or more), the performance of the empirical predictors derived under the three models is similar. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting random effects with an expanded finite population mixed model

Prediction of random effects is an important problem with expanding applications. In the simplest context, the problem corresponds to prediction of the latent value (the mean) of a realized cluster selected via two-stage sampling. Recently, Stanek and Singer [Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 119-130] developed best linear unbiased predictors (BLUP) under a finite population mixed model that outperform BLUPs from mixed models and superpopulation models. Their setup, however, does not allow for unequally sized clusters. To overcome this drawback, we consider an expanded finite population mixed model based on a larger set of random variables that span a higher dimensional space than those typically applied to such problems. We show that BLUPs for linear combinations of the realized cluster means derived under such a model have considerably smaller mean squared error (MSE) than those obtained from mixed models, superpopulation models, and finite population mixed models. We motivate our general approach by an example developed for two-stage cluster sampling and show that it faithfully captures the stochastic aspects of sampling in the problem. We also consider simulation studies to illustrate the increased accuracy of the BLUP obtained under the expanded finite population mixed model. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models

We introduce, for the first time, a new class of Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models potentially useful in lifetime data analysis. The class generalizes the regression model described by Rieck and Nedelman [Rieck, J.R., Nedelman, J.R., 1991. A log-linear model for the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Technometrics 33, 51-60]. We discuss maximum-likelihood estimation for the parameters of the model, and derive closed-form expressions for the second-order biases of these estimates. Our formulae are easily computed as ordinary linear regressions and are then used to define bias corrected maximum-likelihood estimates. Some simulation results show that the bias correction scheme yields nearly unbiased estimates without increasing the mean squared errors. Two empirical applications are analysed and discussed. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Star formation efficiency in galaxy clusters

Context. The luminous material in clusters of galaxies exists in two forms: the visible galaxies and the X-ray emitting intra-cluster medium. The hot intra-cluster gas is the major observed baryonic component of clusters, about six times more massive than the stellar component. The mass contained within visible galaxies is approximately 3% of the dynamical mass. Aims. Our aim was to analyze both baryonic components, combining X-ray and optical data of a sample of five galaxy clusters (Abell 496, 1689, 2050, 2631 and 2667), within the redshift range 0.03 < z < 0.3. We determined the contribution of stars in galaxies and the intra-cluster medium to the total baryon budget. Methods. We used public XMM-Newton data to determine the gas mass and to obtain the X-ray substructures. Using the optical counterparts from SDSS or CFHT we determined the stellar contribution. Results. We examine the relative contribution of galaxies, intra-cluster light and intra-cluster medium to baryon budget in clusters through the stellar-to-gas mass ratio, estimated with recent data. We find that the stellar-to-gas mass ratio within r(500) (the radius within which the mean cluster density exceeds the critical density by a factor of 500), is anti-correlated with the ICM temperature, which range from 24% to 6% while the temperature ranges from 4.0 to 8.3 keV. This indicates that less massive cold clusters are more prolific star forming environments than massive hot clusters.

Substrate/semiconductor interface effects on the emission efficiency of luminescent polymers

The importance of interface effects for organic devices has long been recognized, but getting detailed knowledge of the extent of such effects remains a major challenge because of the difficulty in distinguishing from bulk effects. This paper addresses the interface effects on the emission efficiency of poly(p-phenylene vinylene) (PPV), by producing layer-by-layer (LBL) films of PPV alternated with dodecylbenzenesulfonate. Films with thickness varying from similar to 15 to 225 nm had the structural defects controlled empirically by converting the films at two temperatures, 110 and 230 degrees C, while the optical properties were characterized by using optical absorption, photoluminescence (PL), and photoluminescence excitation spectra. Blueshifts in the absorption and PL spectra for LBL films with less than 25 bilayers (<40-50 nm) pointed to a larger number of PPV segments with low conjugation degree, regardless of the conversion temperature. For these thin films, the mean free-path for diffusion of photoexcited carriers decreased, and energy transfer may have been hampered owing to the low mobility of the excited carriers. The emission efficiency was then found to depend on the concentration of structural defects, i.e., on the conversion temperature. For thick films with more than 25 bilayers, on the other hand, the PL signal did not depend on the PPV conversion temperature. We also checked that the interface effects were not caused by waveguiding properties of the excited light. Overall, the electronic states at the interface were more localized, and this applied to film thickness of up to 40-50 nm. Because this is a typical film thickness in devices, the implication from the findings here is that interface phenomena should be a primary concern for the design of any organic device. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3622143]

Predictive Validity of Waterlow Scale for Pressure Ulcer Development Risk in Hospitalized Patients

AIM: We sought to evaluate the predictive validity of the Waterlow Scale in hospitalized patients. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: The study was conducted at a general private hospital with 220 beds and a mean time of hospitalization of 7.4 days and a mean occupation rate of approximately 80%. Adult patients with a Braden Scale score of 18 or less and a Waterlow Scale score of 16 or more were studied. The sample consisted of 98 patients with a mean age of 71.1 +/- 15.5 years. METHODS: Skin assessment and scoring by using the Waterlow and Braden scales were completed on alternate days. Patients were examined at least 3 times to be considered for analysis. The data were submitted to sensitivity and specificity analysis by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and positive (+LR) and negative (-LR) likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The cutoff scores were 17, 20, and 20 in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. Sensitivity was 71.4%, 85.7%, and 85.7% and specificity was 67.0%, 40.7%, and 32.9%, respectively. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve revealed good accuracy (0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.93) only for the cutoff score 17 in the first assessment. The results also showed probabilities of 14%, 10%, and 9% for the development of pressure ulcer when the test results were positive (+LR) and of 3% (-LR) when the test results were negative for the cutoff scores in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. CONCLUSION: The Waterlow Scale achieved good predictive validity in predicting pressure ulcer in hospitalized patients when a cutoff score of 17 was used in the first assessment.

Robust integration of real time optimization with linear model predictive control

Here, we study the stable integration of real time optimization (RTO) with model predictive control (MPC) in a three layer structure. The intermediate layer is a quadratic programming whose objective is to compute reachable targets to the MPC layer that lie at the minimum distance to the optimum set points that are produced by the RTO layer. The lower layer is an infinite horizon MPC with guaranteed stability with additional constraints that force the feasibility and convergence of the target calculation layer. It is also considered the case in which there is polytopic uncertainty in the steady state model considered in the target calculation. The dynamic part of the MPC model is also considered unknown but it is assumed to be represented by one of the models of a discrete set of models. The efficiency of the methods presented here is illustrated with the simulation of a low order system. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.