Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

Climate perspective on the large-scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

The landfall of Cyclone Catarina on the Brazilian coast in March 2004 became known as the first documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, promoting a new view oil how large-scale features can contribute to tropical transition. The aim of this paper is to put the large-scale circulation associated with Catarina`s transition in climate perspective. This is discussed in the light of a robust pattern of spatial correlations between thermodynamic and dynamic variables of importance for hurricane formation. A discussion on how transition mechanisms respond to the present-day circulation is presented. These associations help in understanding why Catarina was formed in a region previously thought to be hurricane-free. Catarina developed over a large-scale area of thermodynamically favourable air/sea temperature contrast. This aspect explains the paradox that such a rare system developed when the sea surface temperature was slightly below average. But, although thermodynamics played an important role, it is apparent that Catarina would not have formed without the key dynamic interplay triggered by a high latitude blocking. The blocking was associated with an extreme positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) both hemispherically and locally, and the nearby area where Catarina developed is found to be more cyclonic during the positive phase of the SAM. A conceptual model is developed and a `South Atlantic index` is introduced as a useful diagnostic of potential conditions leading to tropical transition in the area, where large-scale indices indicate trends towards more favourable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

An analysis of the environmental energetics associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

This study presents the first analysis of the energetics associated with a hybrid cyclone`s transition in the Southern Hemisphere, Hurricane Catarina ( March 2004). Catarina has earned a place in history as the first documented South Atlantic hurricane, but its unusual tropical transition is still poorly understood. Here we show that Catarina`s transition was preceded by marked environmental changes in the Lorenz energy cycle, with an abrupt shift from a baroclinic to a predominantly barotropic state. Such changes help to explain the unusual vortex`s growth until its transition was completed. Although the vortex`s energy flux is not explicitly calculated, a likely mechanism linking the environmental energetics with Catarina is the extraction of eddy kinetic energy from horizontal momentum and heat transfers within the through component of the blocking. The results advance the understanding of this rare event and suggest that the technique has a great potential to study transitioning systems in general.

An old taxonomic dilemma: the identity of the western south Atlantic lebranche mullet (Teleostei: Perciformes: Mugilidae)

The identification of the lebranche mullet in the western south Atlantic has long been problematical. In most recent works either Mugil liza Valenciennes and M. platanus Gunther, 1880 or M. liza and M. cephalus Linnaeus, 1758 were recognized from the region and more rarely the occurrence of only one species has been proposed but without sufficient morphological, biochemical or molecular data to allow the designation of the taxonomically appropriate name. Analysis of meristic and morphometric data taken from samples collected from Venezuela to Argentina, clearly indicates that there is only one species of lebranche mullet in the Caribbean Sea region and the Atlantic coast of South America and that Mugil liza is the appropriate name. The comparison of the combined data from all the samples of M. liza with the data taken from one sample of M. cephalus that originated in the Mediterranean, the possible locality from which type specimens were collected (Eschmeyer and Fricke, 2009), revealed significant differences indicating that they are different species. It is also suggested that individuals from the western north Atlantic identified as M. cephalus might represent a population of M. liza in this region.

Evolutionary history of trypanosomes from South American caiman (Caiman yacare) and African crocodiles inferred by phylogenetic analyses using SSU rDNA and gGAPDH genes

In this study, using a combined data set of SSU rDNA and gGAPDH gene sequences, we provide phylogenetic evidence that supports Clustering of crocodilian trypanosomes from the Brazilian Caiman yacare (Alligatoridae) and Trypanosoma grayi, a species that Circulates between African crocodiles (Crocodilydae) and tsetse flies. In a survey of trypanosomes in Caiman yacare from the Brazilian Pantanal, the prevalence of trypanosome infection was 35% as determined by microhaematocrit and haemoculture, and 9 cultures were obtained. The morphology of trypomastigotes from caiman blood and tissue imprints was compared with those described for other crocodilian trypanosomes. Differences in morphology and growth behaviour of caiman trypanosomes were corroborated by molecular polymorphism that revealed 2 genotypes. Eight isolates were ascribed to genotype Cay01 and 1 to genotype Cay02. Phylogenetic inferences based on concatenated SSU rDNA and gGAPDII sequences showed that caiman isolates are closely related to T. grayi, constituting a well-supported monophyletic assemblage (clade T. grayi). Divergence time estimates based on clade composition, and biogeographical and geological events were used to discuss the relationships between the evolutionary histories of crocodilian trypanosomes and their hosts.