Comparing machine learning classifiers in potential distribution modelling

Species` potential distribution modelling consists of building a representation of the fundamental ecological requirements of a species from biotic and abiotic conditions where the species is known to occur. Such models can be valuable tools to understand the biogeography of species and to support the prediction of its presence/absence considering a particular environment scenario. This paper investigates the use of different supervised machine learning techniques to model the potential distribution of 35 plant species from Latin America. Each technique was able to extract a different representation of the relations between the environmental conditions and the distribution profile of the species. The experimental results highlight the good performance of random trees classifiers, indicating this particular technique as a promising candidate for modelling species` potential distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the potential distribution of the invasive tomato red spider mite, Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae)

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of a species is particularly important for pests with strong invasive abilities. Tetranychus evansi Baker & Pritchard, possibly native to South America, is a spider mite pest of solanaceous crops. This mite is considered an invasive species in Africa and Europe. A CLIMEX model was developed to predict its global distribution. The model results fitted the known records of T. evansi except for some records in dry locations. Dryness as well as excess moisture stresses play important roles in limiting the spread of the mite in the tropics. In North America and Eurasia its potential distribution appears to be essentially limited by cold stress. Detailed potential distribution maps are provided for T. evansi in the Mediterranean Basin and in Japan. These two regions correspond to climatic borders for the species. Mite establishment in these areas can be explained by their relatively mild winters. The Mediterranean region is also the main area where tomato is grown in open fields in Europe and where the pest represents a threat. According to the model, the whole Mediterranean region has the potential to be extensively colonized by the mite. Wide expansion of the mite to new areas in Africa is also predicted. Agricultural issues highlighted by the modelled distribution of the pest are discussed.

DISTRIBUTION OF CAPYBARAS IN AN AGROECOSYSTEM, SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL, BASED ON ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING

Southeastern Brazil has seen dramatic landscape modifications in recent decades, due to expansion of agriculture and urban areas; these changes have influenced the distribution and abundance of vertebrates. We developed predictive models of ecological and spatial distributions of capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) using ecological niche modeling. Most Occurrences of capybaras were in flat areas with water bodies Surrounded by sugarcane and pasture. More than 75% of the Piracicaba River basin was estimated as potentially habitable by capybara. The models had low omission error (2.3-3.4%), but higher commission error (91.0-98.5%); these ""model failures"" seem to be more related to local habitat characteristics than to spatial ones. The potential distribution of capybaras in the basin is associated with anthropogenic habitats, particularly with intensive land use for agriculture.

Ecological niche modeling and geographical distribution of pollinator and plants: A case study of Peponapis fervens (Smith, 1879) (Eucerini: Apidae) and Cucurbita species (Cucurbitaceae)

The bees of the Peponapes genus (Eucerini, Apidae) have a Neotropical distribution with the center of species diversity located in Mexico and are specialized in Cucurbita plants. which have many species of economic importance. such as squashes and pumpkins Peponapis fervens is the only species of the genus known from southern South America The Cucurbita species occurring in the same area as P fervens Include four domesticated species (C ficifolia, C maxima maxima, C moschata and C pepo) and one non-domesticated species (Cucurbita maxima andreana) It was suggested that C. in andreana was the original pollen source to P fervens, and this bee expanded its geographical range due to the domestication of Cucurbita The potential geographical areas of these species were determined and compared using ecological niche modeling that was performed with the computational system openModeller and GARP with best subsets algorithm The climatic variables obtained through modeling were compared using Cluster Analysis Results show that the potential areas of domesticated species practically spread all over South America The potential area of P fervens Includes the areas of C m andreana but reaches a larger area, where the domesticated species of Cucurbita also Occur The Cluster Analysis shows a high climatic similarity between P fervens and C. m. andreana Nevertheless. P fervens presents the ability to occupy areas with wider ranges of climatic variables and to exploit resources provided by domesticated species (C) 2009 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Assessing the impact of deforestation and climate change on the range size and environmental niche of bird species in the Atlantic forests, Brazil

Aim Habitat loss and climate change are two major drivers of biological diversity. Here we quantify how deforestation has already changed, and how future climate scenarios may change, environmental conditions within the highly disturbed Atlantic forests of Brazil. We also examine how environmental conditions have been altered within the range of selected bird species. Location Atlantic forests of south-eastern Brazil. Methods The historical distribution of 21 bird species was estimated using Maxent. After superimposing the present-day forest cover, we examined the environmental niches hypothesized to be occupied by these birds pre- and post-deforestation using environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). ENFA was also used to compare conditions in the entire Atlantic forest ecosystem pre- and post-deforestation. The relative influence of land use and climate change on environmental conditions was examined using analysis of similarity and principal components analysis. Results Deforestation in the region has resulted in a decrease in suitable habitat of between 78% and 93% for the Atlantic forest birds included here. Further, Atlantic forest birds today experience generally wetter and less seasonal forest environments than they did historically. Models of future environmental conditions within forest remnants suggest generally warmer conditions and lower annual variation in rainfall due to greater precipitation in the driest quarter of the year. We found that deforestation resulted in a greater divergence of environmental conditions within Atlantic forests than that predicted by climate change. Main conclusions The changes in environmental conditions that have occurred with large-scale deforestation suggest that selective regimes may have shifted and, as a consequence, spatial patterns of intra-specific variation in morphology, behaviour and genes have probably been altered. Although the observed shifts in available environmental conditions resulting from deforestation are greater than those predicted by climate change, the latter will result in novel environments that exceed temperatures in any present-day climates and may lead to biotic attrition unless organisms can adapt to these warmer conditions. Conserving intra-specific diversity over the long term will require considering both how changes in the recent past have influenced contemporary populations and the impact of future environmental change.

A reference business process for ecological niche modelling

Ecological niche modelling combines species occurrence points with environmental raster layers in order to obtain models for describing the probabilistic distribution of species. The process to generate an ecological niche model is complex. It requires dealing with a large amount of data, use of different software packages for data conversion, for model generation and for different types of processing and analyses, among other functionalities. A software platform that integrates all requirements under a single and seamless interface would be very helpful for users. Furthermore, since biodiversity modelling is constantly evolving, new requirements are constantly being added in terms of functions, algorithms and data formats. This evolution must be accompanied by any software intended to be used in this area. In this scenario, a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) is an appropriate choice for designing such systems. According to SOA best practices and methodologies, the design of a reference business process must be performed prior to the architecture definition. The purpose is to understand the complexities of the process (business process in this context refers to the ecological niche modelling problem) and to design an architecture able to offer a comprehensive solution, called a reference architecture, that can be further detailed when implementing specific systems. This paper presents a reference business process for ecological niche modelling, as part of a major work focused on the definition of a reference architecture based on SOA concepts that will be used to evolve the openModeller software package for species modelling. The basic steps that are performed while developing a model are described, highlighting important aspects, based on the knowledge of modelling experts. In order to illustrate the steps defined for the process, an experiment was developed, modelling the distribution of Ouratea spectabilis (Mart.) Engl. (Ochnaceae) using openModeller. As a consequence of the knowledge gained with this work, many desirable improvements on the modelling software packages have been identified and are presented. Also, a discussion on the potential for large-scale experimentation in ecological niche modelling is provided, highlighting opportunities for research. The results obtained are very important for those involved in the development of modelling tools and systems, for requirement analysis and to provide insight on new features and trends for this category of systems. They can also be very helpful for beginners in modelling research, who can use the process and the experiment example as a guide to this complex activity. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Macroscopic root water uptake distribution using a matric flux potential approach

Hydrological models featuring root water uptake usually do not include compensation mechanisms such that reductions in uptake from dry layers are compensated by an increase in uptake from wetter layers. We developed a physically based root water uptake model with an implicit compensation mechanism. Based on an expression for the matric flux potential (M) as a function of the distance to the root, and assuming a depth-independent value of M at the root surface, uptake per layer is shown to be a function of layer bulk M, root surface M, and a weighting factor that depends on root length density and root radius. Actual transpiration can be calculated from the sum of layer uptake rates. The proposed reduction function (PRF) was built into the SWAP model, and predictions were compared to those made with the Feddes reduction function (FRF). Simulation results were tested against data from Canada (continuous spring wheat [(Triticum aestivum L.]) and Germany (spring wheat, winter barley [Hordeum vulgare L.], sugarbeet [Beta vulgaris L.], winter wheat rotation). For the Canadian data, the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) for water content in the upper soil layers was very similar for FRF and PRF; for the deeper layers, RMSEP was smaller for PRF. For the German data, RMSEP was lower for PRF in the upper layers and was similar for both models in the deeper layers. In conclusion, but dependent on the properties of the data sets available for testing,the incorporation of the new reduction function into SWAP was successful, providing new capabilities for simulating compensated root water uptake without increasing the number of input parameters or degrading model performance.

Distribution of potential suitable hammers and transport of hammer tools and nuts by wild capuchin monkeys

Selection and transport of objects to use as tools at a distant site are considered to reflect planning. Ancestral humans transported tools and tool-making materials as well as food items. Wild chimpanzees also transport selected hammer tools and nuts to anvil sites. To date, we had no other examples of selection and transport of stone tools among wild nonhuman primates. Wild bearded capuchins (Cebus libidinosus) in Boa Vista (Piaui, Brazil) routinely crack open palm nuts and other physically well-protected foods on level surfaces (anvils) using stones (hammers) as percussive tools. Here we present indirect evidence, obtained by a transect census, that stones suitable for use as hammers are rare (study 1) and behavioral evidence of hammer transport by twelve capuchins (study 2). To crack palm nuts, adults transported heavier and harder stones than to crack other less resistant food items. These findings show that wild capuchin monkeys selectively transport stones of appropriate size and hardness to use as hammers, thus exhibiting, like chimpanzees and humans, planning in tool-use activities.

Modelling water adsorption on Au(210) surfaces: II. Monte Carlo simulations

Canonical Monte Carlo simulations for the Au(210)/H(2)O interface, using a force field recently proposed by us, are reported. The results exhibit the main features normally observed in simulations of water molecules in contact with different noble metal surfaces. The calculations also assess the influence of the surface topography on the structural aspects of the adsorbed water and on the distribution of the water molecules in the direction normal to the metal surface plane. The adsorption process is preferential at sites in the first layer of the metal. The analysis of the density profiles and dipole moment distributions points to two predominant orientations. Most of the molecules are adsorbed with the molecular plane parallel to surface, while others adsorb with one of the O-H bonds parallel to the surface and the other bond pointing towards the bulk liquid phase. There is also evidence of hydrogen bond formation between the first and second solvent layers at the interface. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nutritional reserves of Vochysiaceae seeds: chemical diversity and potential economic uses

Contents of proteins, carbohydrates and oil of seeds of 57 individuals of Vochysiaceae, involving one species of Callisthene, six of Qualea, one of Salvertia and eight of Vochysia were determined. The main nutritional reserves of Vochysiaceae seeds are proteins (20% in average) and oils (21. 6%). Mean of carbohydrate contents was 5. 8%. Callisthene showed the lowest protein content (16. 9%), while Q. cordata was the species with the highest content (30% in average). The contents of ethanol soluble carbohydrates were much higher than those of water soluble carbohydrates. Oil contents lay above 20% for most species (30. 4% in V. pygmaea and V. pyramidalis seeds). The predominant fatty acids are lauric (Q. grandiflora), oleic (Qualea and Salvertia) or acids with longer carbon chains (Salvertia and a group of Vochysia species). The distribution of Vochysiaceae fatty acids suggests for seeds of some species an exploitation as food sources (predominance of oleic acid), for other species an alternative to cocoa butter (high contents or predominance of stearic acid) or the production of lubricants, surfactants, detergents, cosmetics and plastic (predominance of acids with C20 or C22 chains) or biodiesel (predominance of monounsaturated acids). The possibility of exploitation of Vochysiaceae products in a cultivation regimen and in extractive reserves is discussed.

The ichthyofauna of upper rio Capivari: defining conservation strategies based on the composition and distribution of fish species

Although the rio Capivari basin is recognized as an area of great importance for the ichthyofauna, it lacks virtually every basic requirement for the definition of appropriate conservation strategies, since not even its species composition is known. The objective of this work is to determine the composition and distribution of fish species in the upper rio Capivari basin, relating them to the local physical features, and to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed conservations units, delimited based on areas of native vegetation remains, on the conservation of local ichthyofauna. During 2007, 50 different watercourses were sampled with gillnets, cast nets and kick nets. A total of 1308 individuals belonging to 41 species were captured. Degree of conservation, altitude and width were the parameters that best explained fish species richness. Considering the recently proposed boundaries for potential conservation units in the region only 15 or 20 out of 41 species would be found in the State Park and Environmental Protection Area respectively. In practice, the proposed conservation units would not be effective tools for fish conservation, since it would be located in mountainous areas of high altitude, of headwaters streams and where few species are found. In such context, the conservation of specific stretches of larger rivers is critical.

Habitat suitability of Anopheles vector species and association with human malaria in the Atlantic Forest in south-eastern Brazil

Every year, autochthonous cases of Plasmodium vivax malaria occur in low-endemicity areas of Vale do Ribeira in the south-eastern part of the Atlantic Forest, state of São Paulo, where Anopheles cruzii and Anopheles bellator are considered the primary vectors. However, other species in the subgenus Nyssorhynchus of Anopheles (e.g., Anopheles marajoara) are abundant and may participate in the dynamics of malarial transmission in that region. The objectives of the present study were to assess the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to associate the presence of these species with malaria cases in the municipalities of the Vale do Ribeira. Potential habitat suitability modelling was applied to determine both the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to establish the density of each species. Poisson regression was utilized to associate malaria cases with estimated vector densities. As a result, An. cruzii was correlated with the forested slopes of the Serra do Mar, An. bellator with the coastal plain and An. marajoara with the deforested areas. Moreover, both An. marajoara and An. cruzii were positively associated with malaria cases. Considering that An. marajoara was demonstrated to be a primary vector of human Plasmodium in the rural areas of the state of Amapá, more attention should be given to the species in the deforested areas of the Atlantic Forest, where it might be a secondary vector.

Comparison of (120)Sn((6)He, (6)He)(120)Sn and (120)Sn(alpha,alpha)(120)Sn elastic scattering and signatures of the (6)He neutron halo in the optical potential

Cross sections of (120)Sn(alpha,alpha)(120)Sn elastic scattering have been extracted from the alpha-particle-beam contamination of a recent (120)Sn((6)He,(6)He)(120)Sn experiment. Both reactions are analyzed using systematic double-folding potentials in the real part and smoothly varying Woods-Saxon potentials in the imaginary part. The potential extracted from the (120)Sn((6)He,(6)He)(120)Sn data may be used as the basis for the construction of a simple global (6)He optical potential. The comparison of the (6)He and alpha data shows that the halo nature of the (6)He nucleus leads to a clear signature in the reflexion coefficients eta(L) : The relevant angular momenta L with eta(L) >> 0 and eta(L) << 1 are shifted to larger L with a broader distribution. This signature is not present in the alpha-scattering data and can thus be used as a new criterion for the definition of a halo nucleus.

Enhancement of hematoporphyrin IX potential for photodynamic therapy by entrapment in silica nanospheres

The entrapment of hematoporphyrin IX (Hp IX) in silica by means of a microemulsion resulted in silica spheres of 33 +/- 6 nm. The small size, narrow size distribution and lack of aggregation maintain Hp IX silica nanospheres stable in aqueous solutions for long periods and permit a detailed study of the entrapped drug by different techniques. Hp IX entrapped in the silica matrix is accessed by oxygen and upon irradiation generates singlet oxygen which diffuses very efficiently to the outside solution. The Hp IX entrapped in the silica matrix is also reached by iron(II) ions, which causes quenching of the porphyrin fluorescence emission. The silica matrix also provides extra protection to the photosensitizer against interaction with BSA and ascorbic acid, which are known to cause suppression of singlet oxygen generation by the Hp IX free in solution. Therefore, the incorporation of Hp IX molecules into silica nanospheres increased the potential of the photosensitizer to perform photodynamic therapy.

Functional specialization of Eucalyptus fine roots: contrasting potential uptake rates for nitrogen, potassium and calcium tracers at varying soil depths

1. Little is known about the role of deep roots in the nutrition of forest trees and their ability to provide a safety-net service taking up nutrients leached from the topsoil. 2. To address this issue, we studied the potential uptake of N, K and Ca by Eucalyptus grandis trees (6 years of age - 25 m mean height), in Brazil, as a function of soil depth, texture and water content. We injected NO(3)(-)- (15)N, Rb(+) (analogue of K(+)) and Sr(2+) (analogue of Ca(2+)) tracers simultaneously in a solution through plastic tubes at 10, 50, 150 and 300 cm in depth in a sandy and a clayey Ferralsol soil. A complete randomized design was set up with three replicates of paired trees per injection depth and soil type. Recently expanded leaves were sampled at various times after tracer injection in the summer, and the experiment was repeated in the winter. Soil water contents were continuously monitored at the different depths in the two soils. 3. Determination of foliar Rb and Sr concentrations and (15)N atom % made it possible to estimate the relative uptake potential (RUP) of tracer injections from the four soil depths and the specific RUP (SRUP), defined as RUP, per unit of fine root length density in the corresponding soil layer. 4. The highest tracer uptake rates were found in the topsoil, but contrasting RUP distributions were observed for the three tracers. Whilst the RUP was higher for NO(3)(-)- (15)N than for Rb(+) and Sr(2+) in the upper 50 cm of soil, the highest SRUP values for Sr(2+) and Rb(+) were found at a depth of 300 cm in the sandy soil, as well as in the clayey soil when gravitational solutions reached that depth. 5. Our results suggest that the fine roots of E. grandis trees exhibit contrasting potential uptake rates with depth depending on the nutrient. This functional specialization of roots might contribute to the high growth rates of E. grandis trees, efficiently providing the large amounts of nutrients required throughout the development of these fast-growing plantations.