Risk factors for recurrent falls among Brazilian women and men: the Brazilian Osteoporosis Study (BRAZOS)

The objective of the study was to estimate the frequency of recurrent falls and identify the main associated risk factors. The BRAZOS is the first epidemiological study performed on a representative sample of the Brazilian population. Anthropometric data, living habits, previous fractures, falls, dietary intake, physical activity and quality of life were evaluated in 2,420 individuals aged 40 and older. Recurrent falls were reported by 15.5% of men and 25.6% of women. Among women, the risk factors significantly associated to recurrent falls were age, previous fracture, sedentary lifestyle, poor quality of life, diabetes mellitus and current use of benzodiazepine. In men, the risk factors were age, poor quality of life, intake of alcoholic beverages, diabetes mellitus, previous fracture and use of benzodiazepine. A greater intake of vitamin D had a protector effect on the risk of recurrent falls. These findings demonstrated the high prevalence of recurrent falls and emphasize that a multidisciplinary approach is necessary to minimize recurrent falls and their consequences, including osteoporotic fractures.

The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

ECG scar quantification correlates with cardiac magnetic resonance scar size and prognostic factors in Chagas' disease

Objective To test the hypothesis that 12-lead ECG QRS scoring quantifies myocardial scar and correlates with disease severity in Chagas' heart disease. Design Patients underwent 12-lead ECG for QRS scoring and cardiac magnetic resonance with late gadolinium enhancement (CMR-LGE) to assess myocardial scar. Setting University of Sao Paulo Medical School, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Patients 44 Seropositive patients with Chagas' disease without a history of myocardial infarction and at low risk for coronary artery disease. Main outcome measures Correlation between QRS score, CMR-LGE scar size and left ventricular ejection fraction. Relation between QRS score, heart failure (HF) class and history of ventricular tachycardia (VT). Results QRS score correlated directly with CMR-LGE scar size (R=0.69, p<0.0001) and inversely with left ventricular ejection fraction (R=-0.54, p=0.0002), which remained significant in the subgroup with conduction defects. Patients with class II or III HF had significantly higher QRS scores than those with class I HF (5.1 +/- 3.4 vs 2.1 +/- 3.1 QRS points (p=0.002)) and patients with a history of VT had significantly higher QRS scores than those without a history of VT (5.3 +/- 3.2% vs 2.6 +/- 3.4 QRS points (p=0.02)). A QRS score >= 2 points had particularly good sensitivity and specificity (95% and 83%, respectively) for prediction of large CMR-LGE, and a QRS score >= 7 points had particularly high specificity (92% and 89%, respectively) for predicting significant left ventricular dysfunction and history of VT. Conclusions The wide availability of 12-lead ECG makes it an attractive screening tool and may enhance clinical risk stratification of patients at risk for more severe, symptomatic Chagas' heart disease.

Predicting MAOD using only a supramaximal exhaustive test

The objective of this study was to propose an alternative method (MAOD(ALT)) to estimate the maximal accumulated oxygen deficit (MAOD) using only one supramaximal exhaustive test. Nine participants performed the following tests: (a) a maximal incremental exercise test, (b) six submaximal constant workload tests, and (c) a supramaximal constant workload test. Traditional MAOD was determined by calculating the difference between predicted O(2) demand and accumulated O(2) uptake during the supramaximal test. MAOD(ALT) was established by summing the fast component of excess post-exercise oxygen consumption and the O(2) equivalent for energy provided by blood lactate accumulation, both of which were measured during the supramaximal test. There was no significant difference between MAOD (2.82 +/- 0.45 L) and MAOD(ALT) (2.77 +/- 0.37 L) (p = 0.60). The correlation between MAOD and MAOD(ALT) was also high (r = 0.78; p = 0.014). These data indicate that the MAOD(ALT) can be used to estimate the MAOD.

Predicting glass-forming compositions in the Al-La and Al-La-Ni systems

In this work, a criterion considering the topological instability (lambda) and the differences in the electronegativity of the constituent elements (Delta e) was applied to the Al-La and Al-Ni-La systems in order to predict the best glass-forming compositions. The results were compared with literature data and with our own experimental data for the Al-La-Ni system. The alloy described in the literature as the best glass former in the Al-La system is located near the point with local maximum for the lambda.Delta e criterion. A good agreement was found between the predictions of the lambda.Delta e criterion and literature data in the Al-La-Ni system, with the region of the best glass-forming ability (GFA) and largest supercooled liquid region (Delta T(x)) coinciding with the best compositional region for amorphization indicated by the lambda.Delta e criterion. Four new glassy compositions were found in the Al-La-Ni system, with the best predicted composition presenting the best glass-forming ability observed so far for this system. Although the lambda.Delta e criterion needs further refinements for completely describe the glass-forming ability in the Al-La and Al-La-Ni systems, the results demonstrated that this criterion is a good tool to predict new glass-forming compositions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Investigation of a method for predicting AUV derivatives

The paper addresses the problem of autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) modelling and parameter estimation as a means to predict the dynamic performance of underwater vehicles and thus provide solid guidelines during their design phase. The use of analytical and semi-empirical (ASE) methods to estimate the hydrodynamic derivatives of a popular class of AUVs is discussed. A comparison is done with the results obtained by using computational fluid dynamics to evaluate the bare hull lift force distribution around a fully submerged body. An application is made to the estimation of the hydrodynamic derivatives of the MAYA AUV, an autonomous underwater vehicle developed under a joint Indian-Portuguese project. The estimates obtained were used to predict the turning diameter of the vehicle during sea trials. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resource use pattern analysis for predicting resource availability in opportunistic grids

This work presents a method for predicting resource availability in opportunistic grids by means of use pattern analysis (UPA), a technique based on non-supervised learning methods. This prediction method is based on the assumption of the existence of several classes of computational resource use patterns, which can be used to predict the resource availability. Trace-driven simulations validate this basic assumptions, which also provide the parameter settings for the accurate learning of resource use patterns. Experiments made with an implementation of the UPA method show the feasibility of its use in the scheduling of grid tasks with very little overhead. The experiments also demonstrate the method`s superiority over other predictive and non-predictive methods. An adaptative prediction method is suggested to deal with the lack of training data at initialization. Further adaptative behaviour is motivated by experiments which show that, in some special environments, reliable resource use patterns may not always be detected. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting the columnar-to-equiaxed transition for a distribution of nucleation undercoolings

A deterministic mathematical model for steady-state unidirectional solidification is proposed to predict the columnar-to-equiaxed transition. In the model, which is an extension to the classic model proposed by Hunt [Hunt JD. Mater Sci Eng 1984;65:75], equiaxed grains nucleate according to either a normal or a log-normal distribution of nucleation undercoolings. Growth maps are constructed, indicating either columnar or equiaxed solidification as a function of the velocity of isotherms and temperature gradient. The fields A columnar and equiaxed growth change significantly with the spread of the nucleation undercooling distribution. Increasing the spread Favors columnar solidification if the dimensionless velocity of the isotherms is larger than 1. For a velocity less than 1, however, equiaxed solidification is initially favored, but columnar solidification is enhanced for a larger increase in the spread. This behavior was confirmed by a stochastic model, which showed that an increase in the distribution spread Could change the grain structure from completely columnar to 50% columnar grains. (c) 2008 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Arterial pulse pressure variation predicting fluid responsiveness in critically ill patients (Retracted article. See vol. 31, pg. 542, 2009)

In critically ill patients, it is important to predict which patients will have their systemic blood flow increased in response to volume expansion to avoid undesired hypovolemia and fluid overloading. Static parameters such as the central venous pressure, the pulmonary arterial occlusion pressure, and the left ventricular end-diastolic dimension cannot accurately discriminate between responders and nonresponders to a fluid challenge. In this regard, respiratory-induced changes in arterial pulse pressure have been demonstrated to accurately predict preload responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients. Some experimental and clinical studies confirm the usefulness of arterial pulse pressure as a useful tool to guide fluid therapy in critically ill patients.

Role for postoperative cortisol response to desmopressin in predicting the risk for recurrent Cushing`s disease

In the early postoperative period of Cushing`s disease patients, desmopressin may stimulate ACTH secretion in the remnant corticotrophic tumour, but not in nontumour suppressed cells. Objective The aim of this study is to evaluate the serum cortisol responses to desmopressin after pituitary surgery, establishing an optimal cut-off for absolute increment (Delta) of serum cortisol (F) suitable to predict recurrence risk. Design Retrospective case record study. Patients Fifty-seven Cushing`s disease patients submitted to pituitary surgery and desmopressin stimulation in the early postoperative with a long-term follow-up (20-161 months) were studied. Methods and measurements Serum cortisol levels after desmopressin test (10 mu g IV) 15-30 days after adenomectomy were used to determine Delta F (absolute increment of F: F peak - F baseline). Sensitivity and specificity of Delta F were calculated and a ROC curve was performed to establish an optimal cut-off for Delta F to predict recurrence risk. Results Fifteen patients had immediate postoperative failure (basal F > 165 nmol/l; 6 mu g/dl) and one patient was lost during the follow-up. Forty-one patients achieved initial remission and were followed-up. Five of 11 patients who recurred had Delta F > 193 nmol/l (7 mu g/dl), but none of 30 patients who remained in prolonged remission showed Delta F > 193 nmol/l after postoperative desmopressin stimulation. Conclusions Persistence of cortisol response (Delta F > 193 nmol/l) to desmopressin in the early postoperative period can help to identify Cushing`s disease patients with initial remission who present risk for later recurrence.

Comparison of nutritional risk screening tools for predicting clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients

Objective: International nutritional screening tools are recommended for screening hospitalized patients for nutritional risk, but no tool has been specifically evaluated in the Brazilian population. The aim of this study was to identify the most appropriate nutritional screening tool for predicting unfavorable clinical outcomes in patients admitted to a Brazilian public university hospital. Methods: The Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002), Mini-Nutritional Assessment-Short Form (MNA-SF), and Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) were administered to 705 patients within 48 h of hospital admission. Tool performance in predicting complications, very long length of hospital stay (LOS), and death was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: NRS 2002, MUST, and MNA-SF identified nutritional risk in 27.9%, 39.6%, and 73.2% of the patients, respectively. NRS 2002 (complications: 0.6531; very long LOS: 0.6508; death: 0.7948) and MNA-SF(complications: 0.6495; very long LOS: 0.6197; death: 0.7583) had largest areas under the ROC curve compared to MUST (complications: 0.6036; very long LOS: 0.6109; death: 0.6363). For elderly patients, NRS 2002 was not significantly different than MNA-SF (P>0.05) for predicting outcomes. Conclusion: Considering current criteria for nutritional risk, NRS 2002 and MNA-SF have similar performance to predict outcomes but NRS 2002 seems to provide a best yield. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Prospective Study of Conventional and Expanded Coagulation Indices in Predicting Ulcer Bleeding After Variceal Band Ligation

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is controversy over whether coagulation status predicts bleeding caused by ulceration after esophageal varices band ligation (EVL). METHODS: EVL was performed for primary (n = 45) or secondary (n = 105) prophylaxis in 150 patients with cirrhosis (Child A, n = 74, 49%; Child B, n = 42, 28%; Child C, n = 34, 23%). International normalized ratio (INR) and platelet counts were assessed in all. In 92 patients, levels of factor V, fibrinogen, D-dimer, protein C and protein S, von Willebrand factor, and thromboelastography (TEG) were assessed. Platelet count < 50 x 10(3)/mm(3) and INR > 1.5 were considered high-risk cutoff for bleeding. Conversely, platelet count >= 50 x 10(3)/mm(3) with INR <= 1.5 were safe cutoffs. RESULTS: Overall, 11 patients (7.3%) had post-EVL ulcer bleeding. Bleeding occurred in S patients with Child A/B (4.3%) and 6 patients with Child C (17%) (P = .0174 for Child A/B versus Child C). Eight patients with bleeding were among the 110 below the cutoff for INR and platelet count, whereas only 3 of the patients with bleeding were among the 40 patients with purported high-risk values (P = 1.0). Among the 92 patients with expanded coagulation tests, bleeding occurred in S. There was no difference in any of the coagulation parameters, including overall TEG patterns, between patients who did and did nor bleed. CONCLUSIONS: Post-EVL ulcer bleeding was associated with Child C status but not with conventional or expanded coagulation indices in cirrhotic patients without renal failure or infection undergoing elective EVL. These results call into question the common use of prophylactic procoagulants in the elective setting.

The Role of Carcinoembriogenic Antigen in Predicting Response and Survival to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Distal Rectal Cancer

PURPOSE: Carcinoembriogenic antigen (CEA) is the most frequently used tumor marker in rectal cancer. A decrease in carcinoembriogenic antigen after radical surgery is associated with survival in these patients. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy may lead to significant primary tumor downstaging, including complete tumor regression in selected patients. Therefore, we hypothesized that a decrease in CEA after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy could reflect tumor response to chemoradiotherapy, affecting final disease stage and ultimately survival. METHODS: Patients with distal rectal cancer managed by neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and available pretreatment and postchemoradiotherapy levels of CEA were eligible for the study. Outcomes studied included final disease stage, relapse, and survival, and these were compared according to initial CEA level, postchemoradiotherapy CEA level, and the reduction in CEA. RESULTS: Overall 170 patients were included. Postchemoradiotherapy CEA levels < 5 ng/ml were associated with increased rates of complete clinical response and pathologic response. Additionally, postchemoradiotherapy CEA levels < 5 ng/ml were associated with increased overall and disease-free survival (P = 0.01 and P = 0.03). There was no correlation between initial CEA level or reduction in CEA and complete response or survival. CONCLUSION: A postchemoradiotherapy CEA level < 5 ng/ml is a favorable prognostic factor for rectal cancer and is associated with increased rates of earlier disease staging and complete tumor regression. Postchemoradiotherapy CEA levels may be useful in decision making for patients who may be candidates for alterative treatment strategies.

Factors predicting the need for insulin therapy in patients with gestational diabetes mellitus

Aim: To determine the possible factors predicting the insulin requirement in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Method: A total of 294 patients with GDM diagnosed by the 100-g/3-h oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) were studied. The following factors were analyzed: maternal age, nulliparity, family history of diabetes, prepregnancy BMI, prior GDM, prior fetal macrosomia, multiple pregnancy, polyhydramnios, gestational age at diagnosis of GDM, smoking, hypertension, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). The association between each factor and the need for insulin therapy was then analyzed individually. The performance of these factors to predict the probability of insulin therapy was estimated using a logistic regression model. Results: Univariate analysis showed a positive correlation between insulin therapy and prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, hypertension, prior GDM, prior fetal macrosomia, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and HbA1c (P < 0.05). Prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values and HbA1c were statistically significant variables in the logistic regression model. Conclusions: The probability of insulin therapy can be estimated in pregnant women with GDM based on prepregnancy BMI, family history of diabetes, number of abnormal 100-g/3-h OGTT values, and HbA1c concentration. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of three systems of classification in predicting the outcome of diabetic foot ulcers in a Brazilian population

Objective: The aim was to compare there ulcer classification systems as predictors of the outcome of diabetic foot ulcers; the Wagner, the University of Texas (UT) and the size (area, depth), sepsis, arteriopathy, denervation system (S(AD)SAD) systems in specialist clinic in Brazil. Methods: Ulcer area, depth, appearance, infection and associated ischaemia and neuropathy were recorded in a consecutive series of 94 subjects. A novel score, the S(AD)SAD score, was derived from the sum of individual items of the S(AD)SAD system, and was evaluated. Follow-up was for at least 6 months. The primary outcome measure was the incidence of healing. Results: Mean age was 57.6 years; 57 (60.6%) were made. Forty-eight ulcers (51.1%) healed without surgery; 11 (12.2%) subjects underwent minor amputation. Significant differences in terms of healing were observed for depth (P = 0.002), infection (P = 0.006) and denervation (P = 0.002) using the S(AD)SAD system, for UT grade (P = 0.002) and stage (P = 0.032) and for Wagner grades (P = 0.002). Ulcers with an S(AD)SAD score of <= 9 (total possible 15) were 7.6 times more likely to heal than scores >= 10 (P < 0.001). Conclusions: All three systems predicted ulcer outcome. The S(AD)SAD score of ulcer severity could represent a useful addition to routine clinical practice. The association between outcome and ulcer depth confirms earlier reports. The association with infection was stronger than that reported from the centres in Europe or North America. The very strong association with neuropathy has only previously been observed in Tanzania. Studies designed to compare the outcome in different countries should adopt systems of classification, which are valid for the populations studied.