Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Drainage Basins through a Multivariate Analysis within a GIS-Based Model

This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

Physical disability, recent illnesses and health self-assessment in a population-based study in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objectives. To investigate health self-assessment and to estimate the prevalence of chronic diseases and recent illnesses in people with and without physical disabilities (PD) in the state of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. Study design. A Cross-sectional study comprising two population-based health surveys conducted in 2002 and 2003. Methods. A total of 8317 persons (165 with PD) were interviewed in the two studies. Variables concerning to health self-assessment; chronic disease and recent illness were compared in the people with and without PD. Negative binomial regression was used in the analysis. Results. Subjects with PD more often assessed their health as poor/very poor compared to non-disabled ones. They reported more illnesses in the 15 days prior to interview as well as more chronic diseases (skin conditions, anaemia, chronic kidney disease, stroke, depression/anxiety, migraine/headache, pulmonary diseases, hypertension, diabetes, arthritis/arthrosis/rheumatic conditions and heart disease). This higher disease prevalence can be either attributed to disability itself or be associated to gender, age and schooling. Conclusions. Subjects with PD had more recent illnesses and chronic diseases and poorer health self-assessment than non-disabled ones. Age, gender, schooling and disability have individual roles in disease development among disabled people.

A Survey of Fungal Contamination on Books in Public Libraries with Mechanical and Natural Ventilation

Libraries are very propitious environments for the growth of fungi. The great concentration of organic material available for these microorganisms, and often with the lack of adequate ventilation or climate control, would favour this situation. This study was conducted in 2003 to determine the predominant genera of fungi in public libraries by a survey of fungi contaminating the upper surface of books, with and without air conditioning in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, in the winter and summer, during the respective periods with high and low levels of airborne fungi in that city. Six libraries were chosen, located on the campus of the University of Sao Paulo, three of them with air conditioning and the other three with natural ventilation. In these six libraries, 31 genera of fungi were identified in total. The genera and frequency of contaminant fungi recovered differed significantly between the libraries with and without air conditioning and in the samples collected in the summer as opposed to the winter. Cladosporium was the most frequent in the libraries with and without air conditioning, and in the winter. Aspergillus was isolated more often in the summer.

Performance of GEANT4 in dosimetry applications: Calculation of X-ray spectra and kerma-to-dose equivalent conversion coefficients

In order to validate the Geant4 toolkit for dosimetry applications, simulations were performed to calculate conversion coefficients h(10, alpha) from air kerma free-in-air to personal dose equivalent Hp(10, a). The simulations consisted of two parts: the production of X-rays with radiation qualities of narrow and wide spectra, and the interaction of radiation with ICRU tissue-equivalent and ISO water slab phantoms. The half-value layers of the X-ray spectra obtained by simulation were compared with experimental results. Mean energy, spectral resolution, half-value layers and conversion coefficients were compared with ISO reference values. The good agreement between results from simulation and reference data shows that the Geant4 is suitable for dosimetry applications which involve photons with energies in the range of ten to a few hundreds of keV. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microgranitic Enclaves as Products of Self-mixing Events: a Study of Open-system Processes in the Maua Granite, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Based on in situ Isotopic and Trace Elements in Plagioclase

Felsic microgranular enclaves with structures indicating that they interacted in a plastic state with their chemically similar host granite are abundant in the Maua Pluton, SE Brazil. Larger plagioclase xenocrysts are in textural disequilibrium with the enclave groundmass and show complex zoning patterns with partially resorbed An-rich cores (locally with patchy textures) surrounded by more sodic rims. In situ laser ablation-(multi-collector) inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry trace element and Sr isotopic analyses performed on the plagioclase xenocrysts indicate open-system crystallization; however, no evidence of derivation from more primitive basic melts is observed. The An-rich cores have more radiogenic initial Sr isotopic ratios that decrease towards the outermost part of the rims, which are in isotopic equilibrium with the matrix plagioclase. These profiles may have been produced by either (1) diffusional re-equilibration after rim crystallization from the enclave-forming magma, as indicated by relatively short calculated residence times, or (2) episodic contamination with a decrease of the contaminant ratio proportional to the extent to which the country rocks were isolated by the crystallization front. Profiles of trace elements with high diffusion coefficients would require unrealistically long residence times, and can be modeled in terms of fractional crystallization. A combination of trace element and Sr isotope data suggests that the felsic microgranular enclaves from the Maua Pluton are the products of interaction between end-member magmas that had similar compositions, thus recording `self-mixing` events.

Inference and local influence assessment in skew-normal null intercept measurement error model

In this article, we discuss inferential aspects of the measurement error regression models with null intercepts when the unknown quantity x (latent variable) follows a skew normal distribution. We examine first the maximum-likelihood approach to estimation via the EM algorithm by exploring statistical properties of the model considered. Then, the marginal likelihood, the score function and the observed information matrix of the observed quantities are presented allowing direct inference implementation. In order to discuss some diagnostics techniques in this type of models, we derive the appropriate matrices to assessing the local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. The results and methods developed in this paper are illustrated considering part of a real data set used by Hadgu and Koch [1999, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 9, 161-178].