Sampling, WLS, and Mixed Models

Mixed models may be defined with or without reference to sampling, and can be used to predict realized random effects, as when estimating the latent values of study subjects measured with response error. When the model is specified without reference to sampling, a simple mixed model includes two random variables, one stemming from an exchangeable distribution of latent values of study subjects and the other, from the study subjects` response error distributions. Positive probabilities are assigned to both potentially realizable responses and artificial responses that are not potentially realizable, resulting in artificial latent values. In contrast, finite population mixed models represent the two-stage process of sampling subjects and measuring their responses, where positive probabilities are only assigned to potentially realizable responses. A comparison of the estimators over the same potentially realizable responses indicates that the optimal linear mixed model estimator (the usual best linear unbiased predictor, BLUP) is often (but not always) more accurate than the comparable finite population mixed model estimator (the FPMM BLUP). We examine a simple example and provide the basis for a broader discussion of the role of conditioning, sampling, and model assumptions in developing inference.

Optimal irrigation depth for bean crops considering water constraints and farmer`s risk aversion level

Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.

Tidal-amplitude rhythms of larval release: variable departure from presumed optimal timing among populations of the mottled shore crab

It is widely assumed that optimal timing of larval release is of major importance to offspring survival, but the extent to which environmental factors entrain synchronous reproductive rhythms in natural populations is not well known. We sampled the broods of ovigerous females of the common shore crab Pachygrapsus transversus at both sheltered and exposed rocky shores interspersed along a so-km coastline, during four different periods, to better assess inter-population differences of larval release timing and to test for the effect of wave action. Shore-specific patterns were consistent through time. Maximum release fell within 1 day around syzygies on all shores, which matched dates of maximum tidal amplitude. Within this very narrow range, populations at exposed shores anticipated hatching compared to those at sheltered areas, possibly due to mechanical stimulation by wave action. Average departures from syzygial release ranged consistently among shores from 2.4 to 3.3 days, but in this case we found no evidence for the effect of wave exposure. Therefore, processes varying at the scale of a few kilometres affect the precision of semilunar timing and may produce differences in the survival of recently hatched larvae. Understanding the underlying mechanisms causing departures from presumed optimal release timing is thus important for a more comprehensive evaluation of reproductive success of invertebrate populations.

Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

A systematic review with procedural assessments and meta-analysis of Low Level Laser Therapy in lateral elbow tendinopathy (tennis elbow)

Background: Recent reviews have indicated that low level level laser therapy (LLLT) is ineffective in lateral elbow tendinopathy (LET) without assessing validity of treatment procedures and doses or the influence of prior steroid injections. Methods: Systematic review with meta-analysis, with primary outcome measures of pain relief and/or global improvement and subgroup analyses of methodological quality, wavelengths and treatment procedures. Results: 18 randomised placebo-controlled trials (RCTs) were identified with 13 RCTs (730 patients) meeting the criteria for meta-analysis. 12 RCTs satisfied half or more of the methodological criteria. Publication bias was detected by Egger's graphical test, which showed a negative direction of bias. Ten of the trials included patients with poor prognosis caused by failed steroid injections or other treatment failures, or long symptom duration or severe baseline pain. The weighted mean difference (WMD) for pain relief was 10.2 mm [95% CI: 3.0 to 17.5] and the RR for global improvement was 1.36 [1.16 to 1.60]. Trials which targeted acupuncture points reported negative results, as did trials with wavelengths 820, 830 and 1064 nm. In a subgroup of five trials with 904 nm lasers and one trial with 632 nm wavelength where the lateral elbow tendon insertions were directly irradiated, WMD for pain relief was 17.2 mm [95% CI: 8.5 to 25.9] and 14.0 mm [95% CI: 7.4 to 20.6] respectively, while RR for global pain improvement was only reported for 904 nm at 1.53 [95% CI: 1.28 to 1.83]. LLLT doses in this subgroup ranged between 0.5 and 7.2 Joules. Secondary outcome measures of painfree grip strength, pain pressure threshold, sick leave and follow-up data from 3 to 8 weeks after the end of treatment, showed consistently significant results in favour of the same LLLT subgroup (p < 0.02). No serious side-effects were reported. Conclusion: LLLT administered with optimal doses of 904 nm and possibly 632 nm wavelengths directly to the lateral elbow tendon insertions, seem to offer short-term pain relief and less disability in LET, both alone and in conjunction with an exercise regimen. This finding contradicts the conclusions of previous reviews which failed to assess treatment procedures, wavelengths and optimal doses.

Intercepting moving targets: does memory from practice in a specific condition of target displacement affect movement timing?

This investigation aimed at assessing the extent to which memory from practice in a specific condition of target displacement modulates temporal errors and movement timing of interceptive movements. We compared two groups practicing with certainty of future target velocity either in unchanged target velocity or in target velocity decrease. Following practice, both experimental groups were probed in the situations of unchanged target velocity and target velocity decrease either under the context of certainty or uncertainty about target velocity. Results from practice showed similar improvement of temporal accuracy between groups, revealing that target velocity decrease did not disturb temporal movement organization when fully predictable. Analysis of temporal errors in the probing trials indicated that both groups had higher timing accuracy in velocity decrease in comparison with unchanged velocity. Effect of practice was detected by increased temporal accuracy of the velocity decrease group in situations of decreased velocity; a trend consistent with the expected effect of practice was observed for temporal errors in the unchanged velocity group and in movement initiation at a descriptive level. An additional point of theoretical interest was the fast adaptation in both groups to a target velocity pattern different from that practiced. These points are discussed under the perspective of integration of vision and motor control by means of an internal forward model of external motion.

Inter-individual variability in temporal structure of the basketball shoot

This study analyzed inter-individual variability of the temporal structure applied in basketball throwing. Ten experienced male athletes in basketball throwing were filmed and a number of kinematic movement parameters analyzed. A biomechanical model provided the relative timing of the shoulder, elbow and wrist joint movements. Inter-individual variability was analyzed using sequencing and relative timing of tem phases of the throw. To compare the variability of the movement phases between subjects a discriminant analysis and an ANOVA were applied. The Tukey test was applied to determine where differences occurred. The significance level was p = 0.05. Inter-individual variability was explained by three concomitant factors: (a) a precision control strategy, (b) a velocity control strategy and (c) intrinsic characteristics of the subjects. Therefore, despite the fact that some actions are common to the basketball throwing pattern each performed demonstrated particular and individual characteristics.

Optimal design of periodic functionally graded composites with prescribed properties

The computational design of a composite where the properties of its constituents change gradually within a unit cell can be successfully achieved by means of a material design method that combines topology optimization with homogenization. This is an iterative numerical method, which leads to changes in the composite material unit cell until desired properties (or performance) are obtained. Such method has been applied to several types of materials in the last few years. In this work, the objective is to extend the material design method to obtain functionally graded material architectures, i.e. materials that are graded at the local level (e.g. microstructural level). Consistent with this goal, a continuum distribution of the design variable inside the finite element domain is considered to represent a fully continuous material variation during the design process. Thus the topology optimization naturally leads to a smoothly graded material system. To illustrate the theoretical and numerical approaches, numerical examples are provided. The homogenization method is verified by considering one-dimensional material gradation profiles for which analytical solutions for the effective elastic properties are available. The verification of the homogenization method is extended to two dimensions considering a trigonometric material gradation, and a material variation with discontinuous derivatives. These are also used as benchmark examples to verify the optimization method for functionally graded material cell design. Finally the influence of material gradation on extreme materials is investigated, which includes materials with near-zero shear modulus, and materials with negative Poisson`s ratio.

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Balance between early life tolerance and sensitization in allergy: dependence on the timing and intensity of prenatal and postnatal allergen exposure of the mother

P>Allergens can be maternally transferred to the fetus or neonate, though it is uncertain how this initial allergen exposure may impact the development of allergy responses. To evaluate the roles of timing and level of maternal allergen exposure in the early life sensitization of progeny, female BALB/c mice were given ovalbumin (OVA) orally during pregnancy, lactation or weekly at each stage to investigate the immunoglobulin E (IgE) antibody production and cellular responsiveness of their offspring. Exposure to OVA during pregnancy was also evaluated in OVA-specific T-cell receptor (TCR) transgenic (DO11.10) mice. The effect of prenatal antigen exposure on offspring sensitization was dependent on antigen intake, with low-dose OVA inducing tolerance followed by neonatal immunization that was sustained even when pups were immunized when 3 weeks old. These offspring received high levels of transforming growth factor-beta via breastfeeding. High-dose exposure during the first week of pregnancy or perinatal period induced transient inhibition of IgE production following neonatal immunization; although for later immunization IgE production was enhanced in these offspring. Postnatal maternal antigen exposure provided OVA transference via breastfeeding, which consequently induced increased offspring susceptibility to IgE antibody production according to week post-birth. The effect of low-dose maternal exposure during pregnancy was further evaluated using OVA transgenic TCR dams as a model. These progeny presented pronounced entry of CD4(+) T cells into the S phase of the cell cycle with a skewed T helper type 2 response early in life, revealing the occurrence of allergen priming in utero. The balance between tolerance and sensitization depended on the amount and timing of maternal allergen intake during pregnancy.

Low Level Laser Effects On Pain to Palpation and Electromyographic Activity in TMD Patients: A Double-Blind, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Study

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of diode laser (GaAlAs - 780 nm) on pain to palpation and electromyographic (EMG) activity of the masseter and anterior temporalis muscles. The laser was applied on the temporalis and masseter muscles twice a week (four weeks). Forty-eight (48) patients with myofascial pain were randomly assigned between actual and placebo treatments and between the energetic doses of 25 J/cm(2) and 60 J/cm(2), and were evaluated using VAS before, immediately after the final application, and 30 days after the laser treatment. Surface electromyography was performed with maximum dental clenching before and after laser therapy. The results show there were no significant statistical differences in the EMG activity between the groups before and after laser treatment. With regard to the pain at palpation, although both groups presented a significant difference in the symptoms before and after the treatment, only the active doses showed statistically significant reductions in pain level in all the regions of the palpated muscles. However, there was no significant statistical difference between groups (experimental and placebo). In conclusion, low level laser did not promote any changes in EMG activity. The treatment did, however, lessen the pain symptoms in the experimental groups.

Nested diets: a novel pattern of individual-level resource use

Many generalist populations may actually be composed of relatively specialist individuals. This `individual specialization` may have important ecological and evolutionary implications. Although this phenomenon has been documented in more than one hundred taxa, it is still unclear how individuals within a population actually partition resources. Here we applied several methods based on network theory to investigate the intrapopulation patterns of resource use in the gracile mouse opossum Gracilinanus microtarsus. We found evidence of significant individual specialization in this species and that the diets of specialists are nested within the diets of generalists. This novel pattern is consistent with a recently proposed model of optimal foraging and implies strong asymmetry in the interactions among individuals of a population.

Optimal subdivision of land in agrarian reform projects: an analysis using genetic algorithms

J.A. Ferreira Neto, E.C. Santos Junior, U. Fra Paleo, D. Miranda Barros, and M.C.O. Moreira. 2011. Optimal subdivision of land in agrarian reform projects: an analysis using genetic algorithms. Cien. Inv. Agr. 38(2): 169-178. The objective of this manuscript is to develop a new procedure to achieve optimal land subdivision using genetic algorithms (GA). The genetic algorithm was tested in the rural settlement of Veredas, located in Minas Gerais, Brazil. This implementation was based on the land aptitude and its productivity index. The sequence of tests in the study was carried out in two areas with eight different agricultural aptitude classes, including one area of 391.88 ha subdivided into 12 lots and another of 404.1763 ha subdivided into 14 lots. The effectiveness of the method was measured using the shunting line standard value of a parceled area lot`s productivity index. To evaluate each parameter, a sequence of 15 calculations was performed to record the best individual fitness average (MMI) found for each parameter variation. The best parameter combination found in testing and used to generate the new parceling with the GA was the following: 320 as the generation number, a population of 40 individuals, 0.8 mutation tax, and a 0.3 renewal tax. The solution generated rather homogeneous lots in terms of productive capacity.

Increased Viability of Odontoblast-Like Cells Subjected to Low-Level Laser Irradiation

Studies have shown that the increase of cell metabolism depends on the low level laser therapy (LLLT) parameters used to irradiate the cells. However, the optimal laser dose to up-regulate pulp cell activity remains unknown. Consequently, the aim of this study was to evaluate the metabolic response of odontoblast-like cells (MDPC-23) exposed to different LLLT doses. Cells at 20000 cells/cm(2) were seeded in 24-well plates using plain culture medium (DMEM) and were incubated in a humidified incubator with 5% CO(2) at 37 degrees C. After 24 h, the culture medium was replaced by fresh DMEM supplemented with 5% (stress by nutritional deficit) or 10% fetal bovine serum (FBS). The cells were exposed to different laser doses from a near infrared diode laser prototype designed to provide a uniform irradiation of the wells. The experimental groups were: G1: 1.5 J/cm(2) + 5% FBS; G2: 1.5 J/cm(2) + 10% FBS; G3: 5 J/cm(2) + 5% FBS; G4: 5 J/cm(2) + 10% FBS; G5: 19 J/cm(2) + 5% FBS; G6: 19 J/cm(2) + 10% FBS. LLLT was performed in 3 consecutive irradiation cycles with a 24-hour interval. Non-irradiated cells cultured in DMEM supplemented with either 5 or 10% FBS served as control groups. The analysis of the metabolic response was performed by the MTT assay 3 h after the last irradiation. G1 presented an increase in SDH enzyme activity and differed significantly (Mann-Whitney test, p < 0.05) from the other groups. Analysis by scanning electron microscopy showed normal cell morphology in all groups. Under the tested conditions, LLLT stimulated the metabolic activity of MDPC-23 cultured in DMEM supplemented with 5% FBS and exposed to a laser dose of 1.5 J/cm(2). These findings are relevant for further studies on the action of near infrared lasers on cells with odontoblast phenotype.

Changes in ruminal fermentation and mineral serum level in animals kept in high temperature environments

In order to evaluate the effect of environmental temperature on ruminal fermentation and on mineral levels of growing ruminants, it was used 12 male calves (initial average weight 82.9 ± 7.7 kg, 100 days of age), were employed in a randomized block design (by weight) experiment, with repeated weight measurement and two environmental temperatures: thermoneutral (24ºC) and heat-stressed (33ºC), during 38 days. The animals exposed to 33ºC presented lower dry matter ingestion, lower T3 (triiodothyronine) serum level, higher ammoniacal nitrogen (NH3-N) level in the rumen liquid, and higher rectal and body temperatures during all the experimental period when compared to the animals kept in thermoneutral environment (24ºC). The animals kept under heat stress environment (33ºC) presented higher calcium serum level, which was the highest on 31st day and the lowest on the 38th day of the experiment; phosphorus level was the lowest during all the experimental period; sodium level was lower on the 17th, 31st and 38th experimental days. Potassium and zinc levels were lower after 24 days; copper level was lower until the 24th day; magnesium level was higher until the 17th day, if compared to the ones from the animals kept in thermoneutral environment (24ºC). The heat-stressed animals presented higher levels of ammoniacal nitrogen in the ruminal liquid and a decrease in the phosphorus, sodium, potassium and zinc serum levels. These results show the necessity of changes on feed management to ruminants in temperatures over the thermal comfort limits so that performance loss is decreased.