Metabolic syndrome and dietary components are associated with coronary artery disease risk score in free-living adults: a cross-sectional study

Background: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is among the main causes of death in developed countries, and diet and lifestyle can influence CAD incidence. Objective: To evaluate the association of coronary artery disease risk score with dietary, anthropometric and biochemical components in adults clinically selected for a lifestyle modification program. Methods: 362 adults (96 men, 266 women, 53.9 +/- 9.4 years) fulfilled the inclusion criteria by presenting all the required data. The Framingham score was calculated and the IV Brazilian Guideline on Dyslipidemia and Prevention of Atherosclerosis was adopted for classification of the CAD risks. Anthropometric assessments included waist circumference (WC), body fat and calculated BMI (kg/m(2)) and muscle-mass index (MMI kg/m(2)). Dietary intake was estimated through 24 h dietary recall. Fasting blood was used for biochemical analysis. Metabolic Syndrome (MS) was diagnosed using NCEP-ATPIII (2001) criteria. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds of CAD risks according to the altered components of MS, dietary, anthropometric, and biochemical components. Results: For a sample with a BMI 28.5 +/- 5.0 kg/m(2) the association with lower risk (<10% CAD) were lower age (<60 years old), and plasma values of uric acid. The presence of MS within low, intermediary, and high CAD risk categories was 30.8%, 55.5%, and 69.8%, respectively. The independent risk factors associated with CAD risk score was MS and uric acid, and the protective factors were recommended intake of saturated fat and fiber and muscle mass index. Conclusion: Recommended intake of saturated fat and dietary fiber, together with proper muscle mass, are inversely associated with CAD risk score. On the other hand, the presence of MS and high plasma uric acid are associated with CAD risk score.

Lack of Antilipoprotein Lipase Antibodies in Takayasu's Arteritis

Background. Antilipoprotein lipase (anti-LPL) antibodies were described in rheumatic diseases. In systemic lupus erythematosus they were highly associated with inflammatory markers and dyslipidemia, and may ultimately contribute to vascular damage. The relevance of this association in Takayasu's arteritis, which is characterized by major inflammatory process affecting vessels, has not been determined. Objectives. To analyze the presence of anti-LPL antibodies in patients with Takayasu's arteritis and its association with inflammatory markers and lipoprotein risk levels. Methods. Thirty sera from patients with Takayasu's arteritis, according to ACR criteria, were consecutively included. IgG anti-LPL was detected by a standard ELISA. Lipoprotein risk levels were evaluated according to NCEP/ATPIII. Inflammatory markers included ESR and CRP values. Results. Takayasu's arteritis patients had a mean age of 34 years old and all were females. Half of the patients presented high ESR and 60% elevated CRP. Lipoprotein NCEP risk levels were observed in approximately half of the patients: 53% for total cholesterol, 43% for triglycerides, 16% for HDL-c and 47% for LDL-c. In spite of the high frequency of dyslipidemia and inflammatory markers in these patients no anti-LPL were detected. Conclusions. The lack of anti-LPL antibodies in Takayasu's disease implies distinct mechanisms underlying dyslipidemia compared to systemic lupus erythematosus. Copyright (C) 2009 Jozelio Freire de Carvalho et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

High frequency of lipoprotein risk levels for cardiovascular disease in Takayasu arteritis

The objective of this study is to characterize the lipoprotein risk levels in Takayasu arteritis (TA) patients and its possible association with disease activity and glucocorticoid use. Twenty-five female TA patients were consecutively included and compared with 30 age-, gender-, and body mass index-matched healthy controls. Demographic features and the lipid profile were determined and cardiovascular risk levels were evaluated according to NCEP/ATPIII. Total cholesterol (TC), LDL-c, HDL-c, and triglycerides were determined after a 12-h overnight fast. Exclusion criteria were conditions that interfere in the lipid profile. The disease duration was 6.6 +/- 7.4 years; 30% had clinical activity and 80% had laboratory activity. Regarding NCEP/ATPIII risk levels, TA patients presented higher frequency of lipid risk compared to controls: high TC (48% vs. 20%, p = 0.04), low HDL-c (20% vs. 0%, p = 0.015), and high triglycerides (36% vs. 10%, p = 0.026). No difference was observed related to LDL-c risk levels between both groups (40% vs. 20%, p = 0.14). Remarkably, 60% of the patients had at least one lipid risk factor for cardiovascular disease. No difference in the lipids was observed between patients with and without clinical activity; however, those with laboratory activity showed lower levels of HDL-c (1.37 +/- 0.42 vs. 2.00 +/- 0.63 mmol/L, p = 0.012) than patients without this activity. A negative correlation was found between HDL-c and CRP levels (r = -0.42, p = 0.04). Lipids were similar in patients under glucocorticoid compared to those without this therapy. This is the first study to identify that TA, an inflammatory disease, has a proatherogenic lipid profile which is associated to laboratory disease activity.

Caracterização de eventos extremos do nível do mar em Santos e sua correspondência com as reanálises do modelo do NCEP no sudoeste do Atlântico Sul

Este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar a influência atmosférica em escala sinótica sobre o oceano, para eventos extremos de maré meteorológica na costa sudeste brasileira. Para isso foram utilizados dados de elevação do nível do mar do Porto de Santos-SP, campos de vento e pressão em superfície das reanálises do modelo do NCEP abrangendo o Atlântico Sul, no período de 1951 a 1990. Foi possível identificar a variabilidade sazonal e o padrão de evolução dos sistemas atmosféricos associados aos eventos extremos, de grande relevância para aplicações em prognósticos e alertas a autoridades. O outono e inverno apresentaram a maior ocorrência de extremos positivos (40,2 % e 30,8 % respectivamente), enquanto a primavera e o inverno foram as estações com maior número de extremos negativos (47,2 % e 32,3 % respectivamente). Os resultados mostram que os casos mais importantes de sobre-elevação do nível do mar ocorrem com a evolução e persistência de sistemas de baixa pressão sobre o oceano, com ventos de sudoeste acima de 8 m/s, juntamente com o anticiclone da retaguarda posicionado sobre o continente.

Previsões climáticas sazonais sobre o Brasil: avaliação do RegCM3 aninhado no modelo global CPTEC/COLA

Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de previsões sazonais do modelo climático regional RegCM3, aninhado ao modelo global CPTEC/COLA. As previsões com o RegCM3 utilizaram 60 km de resolução horizontal num domínio que inclui grande parte da América do Sul. As previsões do RegCM3 e CPTEC/COLA foram avaliadas utilizando as análises de chuva e temperatura do ar do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) e National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP), respectivamente. Entre maio de 2005 e julho de 2007, 27 previsões sazonais de chuva e temperatura do ar (exceto a temperatura do CPTEC/COLA, que possui 26 previsões) foram avaliadas em três regiões do Brasil: Nordeste (NDE), Sudeste (SDE) e Sul (SUL). As previsões do RegCM3 também foram comparadas com as climatologias das análises. De acordo com os índices estatísticos (bias, coeficiente de correlação, raiz quadrada do erro médio quadrático e coeficiente de eficiência), nas três regiões (NDE, SDE e SUL) a chuva sazonal prevista pelo RegCM3 é mais próxima da observada do que a prevista pelo CPTEC/COLA. Além disto, o RegCM3 também é melhor previsor da chuva sazonal do que da média das observações nas três regiões. Para temperatura, as previsões do RegCM3 são superiores às do CPTEC/COLA nas áreas NDE e SUL, enquanto o CPTEC/COLA é superior no SDE. Finalmente, as previsões de chuva e temperatura do RegCM3 são mais próximas das observações do que a climatologia observada. Estes resultados indicam o potencial de utilização do RegCM3 para previsão sazonal, que futuramente deverá ser explorado através de previsão por conjunto.

Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome in Japanese-Brazilians According to Specific Definitions for Ethnicity

Background: The American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI), revising the National Cholesterol Evaluation Program for Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III), and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) have proposed definitions of metabolic syndrome that take into account waist circumference thresholds according to ethnicity. In this study we estimated the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in a Japanese-Brazilian population using NCEP definitions for Westerners (NCEPwe) and Asians (NCEPas), and IDF for Japanese (IDF). Methods: A total of 650 Japanese-Brazilians living in a developed Brazilian city and aged 30-88 years were included. Results: Metabolic syndrome prevalence according to NCEPwe, NCEPas, and IDF was, respectively, 46.5%, 56.5%, and 48.3%. Only 43.5% of subjects did not have metabolic syndrome by any of the 3 definitions, and 38.3% fulfilled metabolic syndrome criteria for all 3 definitions. Ten percent of subjects were positive for metabolic syndrome based on NCEPas and IDF, but not for NCEPwe. Because IDF requires abdominal obesity as a criterion, the frequency of subjects without metabolic syndrome according to IDF, but with metabolic syndrome by NCEPwe and NCEPas was 8.2%. Conclusions: Independent of the metabolic syndrome definition, Japanese-Brazilians present an elevated metabolic syndrome prevalence, which was higher when using NCEP criteria for Asians, followed by the IDF definition for Japanese.

Lipid goals among patients with diabetes or metabolic syndrome: Lipid Treatment Assessment Project (L-TAP) 2

Objective: This analysis of the Lipid Treatment Assessment Project 2 population compared lipid goal attainment by diabetes and metabolic syndrome status. Research design and methods: Dyslipidaemic patients aged >= 20 years on stable lipid lowering therapy had their lipid levels determined once during enrolment at investigation sites in nine countries between September 2006 and April 2007. Achievement of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol success, triglycerides < 150 mg/dl (1.7 mmol/l), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol success (> 40 mg/dl [1.0 mmol/l] in men or > 50 mg/dl [1.3 mmol/l] in women) was compared using logistic regression. Results: A total of 9955 patients were evaluated. Patients with diabetes, compared with those without diabetes, had lower achievement of LDL cholesterol goals (according to National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel [NCEP ATP] III guidelines; 67% vs. 75%), triglycerides < 150 mg/dl (55% vs. 64%), and HDL cholesterol success (61% vs. 74%; p < 0.0001 for all comparisons). The significantly lower lipid goal attainment in patients with diabetes was consistent across participating world regions. Patients with metabolic syndrome, compared with those without metabolic syndrome, had lower achievement of NCEP ATP III LDL cholesterol goals (69% vs. 76%), triglycerides < 150 mg/dl (36% vs. 83%), and HDL cholesterol success (49% vs. 89%; p < 0.0001 for all comparisons). As the number of metabolic syndrome components increased, lipid success rates progressively decreased (p < 0.0001 for LDL cholesterol success, triglycerides < 150 mg/dl, and HDL cholesterol success). Conclusions: This analysis indicates that despite their increased cardiovascular risk, patients with diabetes or metabolic syndrome remain undertreated.

Nutritional recommendation alone does not change the obesity profile of health professionals

Objective: To evaluate the frequency of overweight and obesity in health professionals, before and after a single specialized dietary recommendation. Methods: Anthropometric measures of 579 workers of a general hospital in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil were taken. The weight (f), height (h) and waist circumference (wc) were interpreted according to the WHO and NCEP ATP III guidelines. Nutrition specialist provided dietary and behavioral recommendations. The entire sample underwent a new evaluation one year later. Results: At the first evaluation, 79 employees presente WC >= 102 cm (male) or WC >= 88 cm (female). The association between WC >= 102 cm (men) or WC >= 88 cm (women) and BMI >= 30 kg/m(2) was found in 12.8 % (69 subjects). The BMI distribution per age group indicated that the increase in overweight and obesity was directly proportional to the age increase. Physical activities were not practiced by 75% of the subjects studied. A year later, the evaluation indicated lack of statistical differences regarding the BMI and waist circumference of the sample and only 2.8% started to practice a physical activity. Conclusion: Dietary recommendation alone failed to promote changes in the eating habits of health professionals who work at a general hospital or to encourage them to practice exercise.

South Atlantic Ocean cyclogenesis climatology simulated by regional climate model (RegCM3)

A detailed climatology of the cyclogenesis over the Southern Atlantic Ocean (SAO) from 1990 to 1999 and how it is simulated by the RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model) is presented here. The simulation used as initial and boundary conditions the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis. The cyclones were identified with an automatic scheme that searches for cyclonic relative vorticity (zeta(10)) obtained from a 10-m height wind field. All the systems with zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -1.5 x 10(-5) s(-1) and lifetime equal or larger than 24 h were considered in the climatology. Over SAO, in 10 years were detected 2,760 and 2,787 cyclogeneses in the simulation and NCEP, respectively, with an annual mean of 276.0 +/- A 11.2 and 278.7 +/- A 11.1. This result suggests that the RegCM3 has a good skill to simulate the cyclogenesis climatology. However, the larger model underestimations (-9.8%) are found for the initially stronger systems (zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -2.5 x 10(-5) s(-1)). It was noted that over the SAO the annual cycle of the cyclogenesis depends of its initial intensity. Considering the systems initiate with zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -1.5 x 10(-5) s(-1), the annual cycle is not well defined and the higher frequency occurs in the autumn (summer) in the NCEP (RegCM3). The stronger systems (zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -2.5 x 10(-5) s(-1)) have a well-characterized high frequency of cyclogenesis during the winter in both NCEP and RegCM3. This work confirms the existence of three cyclogenetic regions in the west sector of the SAO, near the South America east coast and shows that RegCM3 is able to reproduce the main features of these cyclogenetic areas.

Climatological features of cutoff low systems in the Southern Hemisphere

Cutoff lows (COLs) pressure systems climatology for the Southern Hemisphere (SH), between 10 degrees S and 50 degrees S, using the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and the ERA-40 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalyses are analyzed for the period 1979-1999. COLs were identified at three pressure levels (200, 300, and 500 hPa) using an objective method that considers the main physical characteristics of the conceptual model of COLs. Independently of the pressure level analyzed, the climatology from the ERA-40 reanalysis has more COLs systems than the NCEP-NCAR. However, both reanalyses present a large frequency of COLs at 300 hPa, followed by 500 and 200 hPa. The seasonality of COLs differs at each pressure level, but it is similar between the reanalyses. COLs are more frequent during summer, autumn, and winter at 200, 300, and 500 hPa, respectively. At these levels, they tend to occur around the continents, preferentially from southeastern Australia to New Zealand, the south of South America, and the south of Africa. To study the COLs at 200 and 300 hPa from a regional perspective, the SH was divided in three regions: Australia-New Zealand (60 E-130 W), South America (130 degrees W-20 degrees W), and southern Africa (20 degrees W-60 degrees E). The common COLs features in these sectors for both reanalyses are a short lifetime (similar to 80.0% and similar to 70.0% of COLs at 200 and 300 hPa, respectively, persisting for up to 3 days), mobility (similar to 70.0% and similar to 50% of COLs at 200 and 300 hPa, respectively, traveling distances of up to 1200 km), and an eastward propagation.

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

Are Reanalysis Data Useful for Calculating Climate Indices over South America?

Precipitation and temperature climate indices are calculated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis and validated against observational data from some stations over Brazil and other data sources. The spatial patterns of the climate indices trends are analyzed for the period 1961-1990 over South America. In addition, the correlation and linear regression coefficients for some specific stations were also obtained in order to compare with the reanalysis data. In general, the results suggest that NCEP/NCAR reanalysis can provide useful information about minimum temperature and consecutive dry days indices at individual grid cells in Brazil. However, some regional differences in the climate indices trends are observed when different data sets are compared. For instance, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows a reversal signal for all rainfall annual indices and the cold night index over Argentina. Despite these differences, maps of the trends for most of the annual climate indices obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and BRANT analysis are generally in good agreement with other available data sources and previous findings in the literature for large areas of southern South America. The pattern of trends for the precipitation annual indices over the 30 years analyzed indicates a change to wetter conditions over southern and southeastern parts of Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, central and northern Argentina, and parts of Chile and a decrease over southwestern South America. All over South America, the climate indices related to the minimum temperature (warm or cold nights) have clearly shown a warming tendency; however, no consistent changes in maximum temperature extremes (warm and cold days) have been observed. Therefore, one must be careful before suggesting an), trends for warm or cold days.

Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.

Multivariate analysis of the energy cycle of the South American rainy season

The South American (SA) rainy season is studied in this paper through the application of a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to a SA gridded precipitation analysis and to the components of Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. The EOF analysis leads to the identification of patterns of the rainy season and the associated mechanisms in terms of their energetics. The first combined EOF represents the northwest-southeast dipole of the precipitation between South and Central America, the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). The second combined EOF represents a synoptic pattern associated with the SACZ (South Atlantic convergence zone) and the third EOF is in spatial quadrature to the second EOF. The phase relationship of the EOFs, as computed from the principal components (PCs), suggests a nonlinear transition from the SACZ to the fully developed SAMS mode by November and between both components describing the SACZ by September-October (the rainy season onset). According to the LEC, the first mode is dominated by the eddy generation term at its maximum, the second by both baroclinic and eddy generation terms and the third by barotropic instability previous to the connection to the second mode by September-October. The predominance of the different LEC components at each phase of the SAMS can be used as an indicator of the onset of the rainy season in terms of physical processes, while the existence of the outstanding spectral peaks in the time dependence of the EOFs at the intraseasonal time scale could be used for monitoring purposes. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

On the development of summer thunderstorms in the city of Sao Paulo: Mean meteorological characteristics and pollution effect

This study investigates how the summer thunderstorms developed over the city of Sao Paulo and if the pollution might affect its development or characteristics during the austral summer (December-January-February-March, DJFM months). A total of 605 days from December 1999 to March 2004 was separated as 241 thunderstorms days (TDs) and 364 non-thunderstorm days (NTDs). The analyses are performed by using hourly measurements of air temperature (T), web-bulb temperature (Tw), surface atmospheric pressure (P), wind velocity and direction, rainfall and thunder and lightning observations collected at the Meteorological Station of the University of Sao Paulo in conjunction with aerosol measurements obtained by AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network), and the NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy) reanalysis and radiosondes. The wind diurnal cycle shows that for TDs the morning flow is from the northwest rotating to the southeast after 16: 00 local time (LT) and it remains from the east until the night. For the NTDs, the wind is well characterized by the sea-breeze circulation that in the morning has the wind blowing from the northeast and in the afternoon from the southeast. The TDs show that the air temperature diurnal cycle presents higher amplitude and the maximum temperature of the day is 3.2 degrees C higher than in NTDs. Another important factor found is the difference between moisture that is higher during TDs. In terms of precipitation, the TDs represent 40% of total of days analyzed and those days are responsible for more than 60% of the total rain accumulation during the summer, for instance 50% of the TDs had more than 15.5mm day(-1) while the NTDs had 4 mm day(-1). Moreover, the rainfall distribution shows that TDs have higher rainfall rate intensities and an afternoon precipitation maximum; while in the NTDs there isn`t a defined precipitation diurnal cycle. The wind and temperature fields from NCEP reanalysis concur with the local weather station and radiosonde observations. The NCEP composites show that TDs are controlled by synoptic circulation characterized by a pre-frontal situation, with a baroclinic zone situated at southern part of Sao Paulo. In terms of pollution, this study employed the AERONET data to obtain the main aerosol characteristics in the atmospheric column for both TDs and NTDs. The particle size distribution and particle volume size distribution have similar concentrations for both TDs and NTDs and present a similar fine and coarse mode mean radius. In respect to the atmospheric loading, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at different frequencies presented closed mean values for both TDs and NTDs that were statistically significant at 95% level. The spectral dependency of those values in conjunction with the Angstrom parameter reveal the higher concentration of the fine mode particles that are more likely to be hygroscopic and from urban areas. In summary, no significant aerosol effect could be found on the development of summer thunderstorms, suggesting the strong synoptic control by the baroclinic forcing for deep convective development. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B. V.