Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

A new species of land planarian of Gigantea Ogren and Kawakatsu, 1990 (Platyhelminthes, Tricladida, Terricola) from Colombia, with taxonomic remarks on the genus

A new species of land planarian from Colombia, Gigantea maupoi sp. nov., is described herein. The penis papilla of the new species is provided with numerous accessory genital organs, or mgo. These mgo are of a unique morphology, consisting of a very strong barrel-shaped circular muscle coat and an underlying longitudinal one, both derived from the subepithelial musculature of the penis papilla. The central mass of each mgo contains secretions and 8-15 canalicula that open to the male atrium on the central region of the organ. Differences in structures constituting the mgo and details of the muscular systems and of the reproductive organs among the 11 Gigantea species from literature and from type material of G. bistriata (Hyman, 1962), G. chiriquii (Hyman, 1962), and G. sandersoni (Prudhoe, 1949) reexamined here show that the genus is heterogeneous.

Contextual politics of service delivery reforms: Lessons from Delhi, Mexico city and Sao Paulo comparison

Little attention has been given to the contextual politics of service delivery reforms. By focusing on cases of reform in the healthcare sector and, to a lesser extent, in the main policies in the social service sector in India, Mexico and Brazil, this article explores two dimensions of analysis which have enormous relevance in understanding the reach and effectiveness of service delivery reforms: (1) the historical timing of reforms and sectorial baselines, and (2) the degree and institutional locus of local discretion in policy. Findings show that depending on both dimensions, there is an extraordinary variation as to the degree, interests involved and meaning of changes which, in theory, correspond to these countries` commitment to the service delivery reforms, However, consideration of the contextual politics is relevant not for the sake of diversity but for the similarities that this diversity reveals, pointing to underlying analytic dimensions that receive attention in this article.

EULAR/PRINTO/PRES criteria for Henoch-Schonlein purpura, childhood polyarteritis nodosa, childhood Wegener granulomatosis and childhood Takayasu arteritis: Ankara 2008. Part II: Final classification criteria

Objectives To validate the previously proposed classification criteria for Henoch-Schonlein purpura (HSP), childhood polyarteritis nodosa (c-PAN), c-Wegener granulomatosis (c-WG) and c-Takayasu arteritis (c-TA). Methods Step 1: retrospective/prospective webdata collection for children with HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA with age at diagnosis <= 18 years. Step 2: blinded classification by consensus panel of a representative sample of 280 cases. Step 3: statistical (sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve and.-agreement) and nominal group technique consensus evaluations. Results 827 patients with HSP, 150 with c-PAN, 60 with c-WG, 87 with c-TA and 52 with c-other were compared with each other. A patient was classified as HSP in the presence of purpura or petechiae (mandatory) with lower limb predominance plus one of four criteria: (1) abdominal pain; (2) histopathology (IgA); (3) arthritis or arthralgia; (4) renal involvement. Classification of c-PAN required a systemic inflammatory disease with evidence of necrotising vasculitis OR angiographic abnormalities of medium-/small-sized arteries (mandatory criterion) plus one of five criteria: (1) skin involvement; (2) myalgia/muscle tenderness; (3) hypertension; (4) peripheral neuropathy; (5) renal involvement. Classification of c-WG required three of six criteria: (1) histopathological evidence of granulomatous inflammation; (2) upper airway involvement; (3) laryngo-tracheo-bronchial involvement; (4) pulmonary involvement (x-ray/CT); (5) antineutrophilic cytoplasmic antibody positivity; (6) renal involvement. Classification of c-TA required typical angiographic abnormalities of the aorta or its main branches and pulmonary arteries (mandatory criterion) plus one of five criteria: (1) pulse deficit or claudication; (2) blood pressure discrepancy in any limb; (3) bruits; (4) hypertension; (5) elevated acute phase reactant. Conclusion European League Against Rheumatism/Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation/Paediatric Rheumatology European Society propose validated classification criteria for HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA with high sensitivity/specificity.

Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: A case-crossover study in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico

Background Factors affecting vulnerability to heat-related mortality are not well understood. Identifying susceptible populations is of particular importance given anticipated rising temperatures from climatic change. Methods We investigated heat-related mortality for three Latin American cities (Mexico City, Mexico; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Santiago, Chile) using a case-crossover approach for 754 291 deaths from 1998 to 2002. We considered lagged exposures, confounding by air pollution, cause of death and susceptibilities by educational attainment, age and sex. Results Same and previous day apparent temperature were most strongly associated with mortality risk. Effect estimates remained positive though lowered after adjustment for ozone or PM(10). Susceptibility increased with age in all cities. The increase in mortality risk for those >= 65 comparing the 95th and 75th percentiles of same-day apparent temperature was 2.69% (95% CI: -2.06 to 7.88%) for Santiago, 6.51% (95% CI: 3.57-9.52%) for Sao Paulo and 3.22% (95% CI: 0.93-5.57%) for Mexico City. Patterns of vulnerability by education and sex differed across communities. Effect estimates were higher for women than men in Mexico City, and higher for men elsewhere, although results by sex were not appreciably different for any city. In Sao Paulo, those with less education were more susceptible, whereas no distinct patterns by education were observed in the other cities. Conclusions Elevated temperatures are associated with mortality risk in these Latin American cities, with the strongest associations in So Paulo, the hottest city. The elderly are an important population for targeted prevention measures, but vulnerability by sex and education differed by city.

Estimating the number of ozone peaks in Mexico City using a non-homogeneous Poisson model

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the number of times an air quality standard is exceeded in a given period of time. A non-homogeneous Poisson model is proposed to analyse this issue. The rate at which the Poisson events occur is given by a rate function lambda(t), t >= 0. This rate function also depends on some parameters that need to be estimated. Two forms of lambda(t), t >= 0 are considered. One of them is of the Weibull form and the other is of the exponentiated-Weibull form. The parameters estimation is made using a Bayesian formulation based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm. The assignation of the prior distributions for the parameters is made in two stages. In the first stage, non-informative prior distributions are considered. Using the information provided by the first stage, more informative prior distributions are used in the second one. The theoretical development is applied to data provided by the monitoring network of Mexico City. The rate function that best fit the data varies according to the region of the city and/or threshold that is considered. In some cases the best fit is the Weibull form and in other cases the best option is the exponentiated-Weibull. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dental caries profile in Monte Negro, Amazonian state of Rondônia, Brazil, in 2008

OBJECTIVE: This epidemiological survey assessed the dental caries profile in Monte Negro, a small town in the Amazonian state of Rondônia, Brazil, and its relationship with the northern region, national and global goals for oral health in the years 2000 and 2020. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The groups randomly examined were composed of individuals aged 5, 12, 15 to 19, 35 to 44, 65 to 74 years, living in both rural and urban areas. RESULTS: The means dft (standard deviation) and DMFT (standard deviation) for the groups were, respectively, 3.15 (3.12), 3.41 (2.69), 5.96 (4.19), 16.00 (7.30) and 25.96 (9.82). Caries-free individuals were 34.42%, 14.81% and 8.16% in the preschoolchildren, schoolchildren and adolescent groups, respectively. The Significant Caries Index percentages applied to the two younger groups were 6.65 and 6.70, and they increased to 32.00 in the individuals aged 65 to 74 years. Care Index percentages for adolescents, adults and elderly groups were, respectively, 29.40, 25.00 and 1.41. The dental caries profile in Monte Negro in 2008 shows that, 8 years after the year 2000, no FDI/WHO goal for any age settled in 1982 has been achieved. Dental caries increased with age and the main dental problem of adult and elderly groups was tooth loss. CONCLUSION: Oral health promotion and prevention of oral disease policies are urgent needs. Setting of oral health goals and targets to people living in Monte Negro or Amazonia to be pursuit and achieved in a near future is an important action to do because of the culture, sanitary conditions and socioeconomic aspects of this particular population.

Formação de profissionais de saúde no Brasil: uma análise no período de 1991 a 2008

Estudo conduzido com o objetivo de contribuir para o planejamento e implementação de políticas de qualificação profissional no campo da saúde. Foram analisados 14 cursos de graduação da área da saúde: biomedicina, ciências biológicas, educação física, enfermagem, farmácia, fisioterapia, fonoaudiologia, medicina, medicina veterinária, nutrição, odontologia, psicologia, serviço social e terapia ocupacional, no período de 1991 a 2008. Dados sobre número de ingressantes, taxa de ocupação de vagas, distribuição de concluintes por habitante, gênero e renda familiar foram coletados a partir dos bancos do Ministério da Educação. Para o curso de medicina, a relação foi de 40 candidatos por vaga nas instituições públicas contra 10 nas privadas. A maioria dos ingressantes era composta por mulheres. A região Sudeste concentrou 57% dos concluintes, corroborando o desequilíbrio de distribuição regional das oportunidades de formação de profissionais de saúde e indicando a necessidade de políticas de incentivo à redução dessas desigualdades.

Fontes de metionina em rações formuladas com base em aminoácidos totais ou digestíveis para frangas de reposição leves e semipesadas

Foram conduzidos dois experimentos com o objetivo de avaliar a utilização de duas fontes de metionina (em pó ou líquida) em rações formuladas com base em aminoácidos digestíveis ou totais para frangas de reposição leves e semipesadas, nas fases inicial (de 1 a 6 semanas de idade) e de crescimento (de 11 a 16 semanas de idade). Em cada experimento, foram utilizadas 384 aves distribuídas em delineamento inteiramente ao acaso, em esquema fatorial 2 × 2 × 2, composto de duas linhagens (Hy-Line W36 e Hy-Line Brown), duas fontes de metionina (HMTBA - 88% e DL-Metionina - 99%) e dois critérios de formulação da dieta (aminoácidos totais e digestíveis), totalizando oito tratamentos, cada um com seis repetições de oito aves. Foram avaliados os consumos de ração, proteína bruta e energia metabolizável, o peso e ganho de peso corporal e a conversão alimentar das aves. Não houve interação entre os fatores para nenhuma das variáveis estudadas. As aves da linhagem Brown apresentaram maior consumo de ração, peso corporal e ganho de peso. As fontes de metionina e os critérios de formulação de ração não influenciaram as características de desempenho. As aves das linhagens W36 e Brown da linhagem Hy-Line apresentam diferentes perfis de desenvolvimento corporal. A metionina em pó (DL-metionina - 99%) ou a líquida (HMTBA - 88%), assim como os critérios de formulação de ração (aminoácidos totais ou digestíveis) proporcionam desempenho semelhante em aves de reposição.

Estudo de caso de uma situação atmosférica entre 12 e 19 de setembro de 2008, com algumas características semelhantes ao evento Catarina

Este trabalho apresenta uma análise das condições sinótica e dinâmica associadas ao desenvolvimento do ciclone ocorrido entre 12 e 19 de setembro de 2008, com o objetivo de destacar diferenças e semelhanças com o ambiente em que se inseriu o evento Catarina em março de 2004. As principais semelhanças foram encontradas no padrão sinótico geral: a ocorrência de um padrão típico de bloqueio do tipo dipolo associado à anomalia de vorticidade potencial em altos níveis; cavado em níveis médios com inclinação para oeste; a presença de uma coluna de vorticidade ciclônica desde a superfície até a baixa estratosfera; e, em superfície, o padrão de uma alta ao sul de uma baixa pressão. Apesar das semelhanças no padrão geral, diferenças ocorreram entre os dois eventos que influenciaram na intensidade dos sistemas: o Catarina ocorreu em latitudes mais baixas em relação ao caso de setembro de 2008; o padrão típico de bloqueio associado ao caso de setembro de 2008 durou um dia e meio, enquanto no evento Catarina foi de três dias; a configuração da advecção de temperatura na camada entre 1000-500 hPa favoreceu o deslocamento do evento de setembro de 2008 para leste/sudeste, ao contrário do Catarina, a advecção de ar quente a leste do ciclone foi praticamente suprimida e a tendência de altura geopotencial passou a ser positiva, padrões que impedem o deslocamento do sistema para leste; no caso de setembro de 2008 o padrão da inversão do gradiente meridional de temperatura potencial na superfície de -2,0 unidade de vorticidade potencial (UVP) foi caracterizado pela incursão de uma região alongada de ar quente vinda do equador em direção ao sul e ar frio vinda do sul em direção ao equador, enquanto no caso Catarina a inversão ocorre pelo isolamento de uma bolha de ar frio ao norte e uma bolha de ar quente ao sul, o que pode ter contribuído para maior duração do padrão de bloqueio, pois a dissipação neste caso é dificultada. Sistemas como o Catarina podem ser raros no Atlântico Sul, mas isso não ocorre em relação ao ambiente sinótico em que se formou o Catarina. Para melhor entender o processo atmosférico que levou à formação do Catarina, é necessário realizar experimentos numéricos de sensibilidade para o caso de setembro de 2008 com o objetivo de verificar a possibilidade do ciclone extratropical se tornar um ciclone tropical.

Trade unions and the economic performance of brazilian establishments

Este artigo analisa, pela primeira vez na literatura, o impacto dos sindicatos de trabalhadores em vários indicadores de desempenho econômico de firmas industriais brasileiras. Realizou-se uma pesquisa retrospectiva sobre a densidade sindical de 1000 estabelecimentos industriais brasileiros e seus resultados foram combinados aos indicadores de desempenho econômico da Pesquisa Industrial Anual (PIA) de 1990 a 2000. Os resultados indicam que a relação entre a densidade sindical na firma e seus salários, emprego e produtividade, é não-linear, ou seja, um aumento no grau de sindicalização leva a um melhor desempenho, porém a taxas decrescentes. Observou-se, também, uma relação negativa entre sindicalização e rentabilidade. Finalmente, estabelecimentos que introduziram mecanismos de 'participação nos lucros' aumentaram sua produtividade e rentabilidade no período e pagaram maiores salários nas firmas onde o grau de sindicalização era maior.

Pode a atividade física materna modular a programação fetal induzida pela nutrição?

Existe considerável evidência para a indução de diferentes fenótipos em reposta às variações no ambiente fetal e neonatal. O aporte inadequado de nutrientes no período crítico do desenvolvimento está associado ao risco alto de doenças metabólicas na vida adulta, este fenômeno biológico é chamado de programação. A atividade física durante a gestação resulta em adaptações fisiológicas da mãe e no aumento da disponibilidade de nutrientes e oxigênio no espaço feto-placentário. Este trabalho tem como objetivo discutir os mecanismos da indução de programação fetal pela nutrição e o provável efeito modulador da atividade física durante a gestação. Foram utilizadas as bases de dados do Medline Pubmed, Lilacs e Bireme, com publicações entre 1990 até 2008. Os termos de indexação utilizados foram: nutrition, fetal programming, gestation, physical activity, physical exercise, metabolism. Em conclusão, o aporte inadequado de nutrientes programa o aparecimento de doenças metabólicas na vida adulta, enquanto que a atividade física durante a gestação aumenta a disponibilidade de nutrientes e oxigênio, repercutindo positivamente no crescimento fetal e no peso ao nascer.

Rates of antimicrobial resistance in latin america (2004-2007) and in vitro activity of the glycylcycline tigecycline and of other antibiotics

As a part of the Tigecycline Evaluation and Surveillance Trial (T.E.S.T.), Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacterial isolates were collected from 33 centers in Latin America (centers in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela) from January 2004 to September 2007. Argentina and Mexico were the greatest contributors of isolates to this study. Susceptibilities were determined according to Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute guidelines. Resistance levels were high for most key organisms across Latin America: 48.3% of Staphylococcus aureus isolates were methicillin-resistant while 21.4% of Acinetobacter spp. isolates were imipenem-resistant. Extended-spectrum β-lactamase were reported in 36.7% of Klebsiella pneumoniae and 20.8% of E. coli isolates. Tigecycline was the most active agent against Gram-positive isolates. Tigecycline was also highly active against all Gram-negative organisms, with the exception of Pseuodomonas aeruginosa, against which piperacillin-tazobactam was the most active agent tested (79.3% of isolates susceptible). The in vitro activity of tigecycline against both Gram-positive and Gram-negative isolates indicates that it may be an useful tool for the treatment of nosocomial infections, even those caused by organisms that are resistant to other antibacterial agents.

A phylogenetic analysis of Brycon and Henochilus (Characiformes, Characidae, Bryconinae) based on the mitochondrial gene 16S rRNA

The genus Brycon, the largest subunit of the Bryconinae, has 42 valid species distributed from southern Mexico to the La Plata River in Argentina. Henochilus is a monotypic genus, comprising a single species (H. wheatlandii) found in the upper Rio Doce basin. In the present study, partial sequences of the mitochondrial gene 16S were obtained for fifteen species of Brycon and for Henochilus wheatlandii. The results showed that the genus Brycon is paraphyletic, since Henochilus is the sister-group of B. ferox and B. insignis. The most basal species analyzed were the trans-Andean species B. henni, B. petrosus, and B. chagrensis.