Software maintenance project delays prediction using Bayesian Networks

Managing software maintenance is rarely a precise task due to uncertainties concerned with resources and services descriptions. Even when a well-established maintenance process is followed, the risk of delaying tasks remains if the new services are not precisely described or when resources change during process execution. Also, the delay of a task at an early process stage may represent a different delay at the end of the process, depending on complexity or services reliability requirements. This paper presents a knowledge-based representation (Bayesian Networks) for maintenance project delays based on specialists experience and a corresponding tool to help in managing software maintenance projects. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple synchronous states in static delay-free mutually connected PLL networks

In many engineering applications, the time coordination of geographically separated events is of fundamental importance, as in digital telecommunications and integrated digital circuits. Mutually connected (MC) networks are very good candidates for some new types of application, such as wireless sensor networks. This paper presents a study on the behavior of MC networks of digital phase-locked loops (DPLLs). Analytical results are derived showing that, even for static networks without delays, different synchronous states may exist for the network. An upper bound for the number of such states is also presented. Numerical simulations are used to show the following results: (i) the synchronization precision in MC DPLLs networks; (ii) the existence of synchronous states for the network does not guarantee its achievement and (iii) different synchronous states may be achieved for different initial conditions. These results are important in the neural computation context. as in this case, each synchronous state may be associated to a different analog memory information. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods of Estimation in Multiple Linear Regression: Application to Clinical Data

Nesse artigo, tem-se o interesse em avaliar diferentes estratégias de estimação de parâmetros para um modelo de regressão linear múltipla. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo foram utilizados dados de um ensaio clínico em que o interesse foi verificar se o ensaio mecânico da propriedade de força máxima (EM-FM) está associada com a massa femoral, com o diâmetro femoral e com o grupo experimental de ratas ovariectomizadas da raça Rattus norvegicus albinus, variedade Wistar. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo serão comparadas três metodologias: a metodologia clássica, baseada no método dos mínimos quadrados; a metodologia Bayesiana, baseada no teorema de Bayes; e o método Bootstrap, baseado em processos de reamostragem.

Estimation of the thickness and the optical parameters of several stacked thin films using optimization

The reverse engineering problem addressed in the present research consists of estimating the thicknesses and the optical constants of two thin films deposited on a transparent substrate using only transmittance data through the whole stack. No functional dispersion relation assumptions are made on the complex refractive index. Instead, minimal physical constraints are employed, as in previous works of some of the authors where only one film was considered in the retrieval algorithm. To our knowledge this is the first report on the retrieval of the optical constants and the thickness of multiple film structures using only transmittance data that does not make use of dispersion relations. The same methodology may be used if the available data correspond to normal reflectance. The software used in this work is freely available through the PUMA Project web page (http://www.ime.usp.br/similar to egbirgin/puma/). (C) 2008 Optical Society of America

Jointly multi-user detection and channel estimation with genetic algorithm

This work aims at proposing the use of the evolutionary computation methodology in order to jointly solve the multiuser channel estimation (MuChE) and detection problems at its maximum-likelihood, both related to the direct sequence code division multiple access (DS/CDMA). The effectiveness of the proposed heuristic approach is proven by comparing performance and complexity merit figures with that obtained by traditional methods found in literature. Simulation results considering genetic algorithm (GA) applied to multipath, DS/CDMA and MuChE and multi-user detection (MuD) show that the proposed genetic algorithm multi-user channel estimation (GAMuChE) yields a normalized mean square error estimation (nMSE) inferior to 11%, under slowly varying multipath fading channels, large range of Doppler frequencies and medium system load, it exhibits lower complexity when compared to both maximum likelihood multi-user channel estimation (MLMuChE) and gradient descent method (GrdDsc). A near-optimum multi-user detector (MuD) based on the genetic algorithm (GAMuD), also proposed in this work, provides a significant reduction in the computational complexity when compared to the optimum multi-user detector (OMuD). In addition, the complexity of the GAMuChE and GAMuD algorithms were (jointly) analyzed in terms of number of operations necessary to reach the convergence, and compared to other jointly MuChE and MuD strategies. The joint GAMuChE-GAMuD scheme can be regarded as a promising alternative for implementing third-generation (3G) and fourth-generation (4G) wireless systems in the near future. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

O risco espacial e fatores associados ao edentulismo em idosos em município do Sudeste do Brasil

Objetivou-se identificar fatores associados ao edentulismo e o seu risco espacial em idosos. Foi realizado um estudo transversal em uma amostra de 372 indivíduos de 60 anos e mais, no Município de Botucatu, São Paulo, Brasil, em 2005. Razões de prevalência brutas e ajustadas foram estimadas por meio de regressão de Poisson, com estimativa robusta da variância e procedimentos de modelagem hierárquica. A análise espacial foi realizada por estimativas de densidade de Kernel. A prevalência de edentulismo foi de 63,17%. Os fatores sociodemográficos associados ao edentulismo foram a baixa escolaridade, o aumento do número de pessoas por cômodo, não possuir automóvel e idade mais avançada, presença de comorbidades, ausência de um cirurgião-dentista regular e ter realizado a última consulta há três anos ou mais. A análise espacial mostrou maior risco nas áreas periféricas. Obteve-se uma melhor compreensão da perda dentária entre os idosos, subsidiando o planejamento de ações em saúde coletiva.

Categorization skills and recall in brain damaged children: a multiple case study

During development, children become capable of categorically associating stimuli and of using these relationships for memory recall. Brain damage in childhood can interfere with this development. This study investigated categorical association of stimuli and recall in four children with brain damages. The etiology, topography and timing of the lesions were diverse. Tasks included naming and immediate recall of 30 perceptually and semantically related figures, free sorting, delayed recall, and cued recall of the same material. Traditional neuropsychological tests were also employed. Two children with brain damage sustained in middle childhood relied on perceptual rather than on categorical associations in making associations between figures and showed deficits in delayed or cued recall, in contrast to those with perinatal lesions. One child exhibited normal performance in recall despite categorical association deficits. The present results suggest that brain damaged children show deficits in categorization and recall that are not usually identified in traditional neuropsychological tests.

PENCALC: a program for penetrance estimation in autosomal dominant diseases

We present a computer program developed for estimating penetrance rates in autosomal dominant diseases by means of family kinship and phenotype information contained within the pedigrees. The program also determines the exact 95% credibility interval for the penetrance estimate. Both executable (PenCalc for Windows) and web versions (PenCalcWeb) of the software are available. The web version enables further calculations, such as heterozygosity probabilities and assessment of offspring risks for all individuals in the pedigrees. Both programs can be accessed and down-loaded freely at the home-page address http://www.ib.usp.br/~otto/software.htm.

A closer look at multiple-clone Plasmodium vivax infections: detection methods, prevalence and consequences

The naturally occurring clonal diversity among field isolates of the major human malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax remained unexplored until the early 1990s, when improved molecular methods allowed the use of blood samples obtained directly from patients, without prior in vitro culture, for genotyping purposes. Here we briefly review the molecular strategies currently used to detect genetically distinct clones in patient-derived P. vivax samples, present evidence that multiple-clone P. vivax infections are commonly detected in areas with different levels of malaria transmission and discuss possible evolutionary and epidemiological consequences of the competition between genetically distinct clones in natural human infections. We suggest that, when two or more genetically distinct clones are present in the same host, intra-host competition for limited resources may select for P. vivax traits that represent major public health challenges, such as increased virulence, increased transmissibility and antimalarial drug resistance.

Working memory impairment in multiple sclerosis relapsing-remitting patients with episodic memory deficits

Episodic memory is impaired in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients, possibly because of deficits in working memory (WM) functioning. If so, WM alterations should necessarily be found in patients with episodic memory deficits, but this has not yet been demonstrated. In this study we aimed at determining whether episodic memory deficits in relapsing-remitting MS are found in conjunction with impaired WM. We evaluated 32 MS patients and 32 matched healthy controls. Nineteen of the 32 patients had episodic memory impairment, and as a group only these individuals showed deficits in WM capacity, which may lead to difficulty in encoding, and/or retrieving information from episodic memory.

Search for cytotoxic agents in multiple Laurencia complex seaweed species (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) harvested from the Atlantic Ocean with emphasis on the Brazilian State of Espírito Santo

The development of new anti-cancer drugs of algal origin represents one of the least explored frontiers in medicinal chemistry. In this regard, the diversity of micro- and macroalgae found in Brazilian coastal waters can be viewed as a largely untapped natural resource. In this report, we describe a comparative study on the cytotoxic properties of extracts obtained from the Laurencia complex: Laurencia aldingensis, L. catarinensis, L. dendroidea, L. intricata, L. translucida, L. sp, and Palisada flagellifera. All of these species were collected in the coastal waters of the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil. Four out of the twelve samples initially investigated were found to show significant levels of toxicity towards a model tumor cell line (human uterine sarcoma, MES-SA). The highest levels of cytotoxicity were typically associated with non-polar (hexane) algal extracts, while the lowest levels of cytotoxicity were found with the corresponding polar (methanol) extracts. In this report, we also describe a biological model currently in development that will not only facilitate the search for new anti-cancer drug candidates of algal origin, but also permit the identification of compounds capable of inducing the destruction of multi-drug resistant tumors with greater efficiency than the pharmaceuticals currently in clinical use.

From Offshore to Onshore: Multiple Origins of Shallow-Water Corals from Deep-Sea Ancestors

Shallow-water tropical reefs and the deep sea represent the two most diverse marine environments. Understanding the origin and diversification of this biodiversity is a major quest in ecology and evolution. The most prominent and well-supported explanation, articulated since the first explorations of the deep sea, holds that benthic marine fauna originated in shallow, onshore environments, and diversified into deeper waters. In contrast, evidence that groups of marine organisms originated in the deep sea is limited, and the possibility that deep-water taxa have contributed to the formation of shallow-water communities remains untested with phylogenetic methods. Here we show that stylasterid corals (Cnidaria: Hydrozoa: Stylasteridae)-the second most diverse group of hard corals-originated and diversified extensively in the deep sea, and subsequently invaded shallow waters. Our phylogenetic results show that deep-water stylasterid corals have invaded the shallow-water tropics three times, with one additional invasion of the shallow-water temperate zone. Our results also show that anti-predatory innovations arose in the deep sea, but were not involved in the shallow-water invasions. These findings are the first robust evidence that an important group of tropical shallow-water marine animals evolved from deep-water ancestors.

Hyperglycemia can delay left ventricular dysfunction but not autonomic damage after myocardial infarction in rodents

Background: Although clinical diabetes mellitus is obviously a high risk factor for myocardial infarction (MI), in experimental studies disagreement exists about the sensitivity to ischemic injury of an infarcted myocardium. Recently, our group demonstrated that diabetic animals presented better cardiac function recovery and cellular resistance to ischemic injury than nondiabetics. In the present study, we evaluated the chronic effects of MI on left ventricular (LV) and autonomic functions in streptozotocin (STZ) diabetic rats. Methods: Male Wistar rats were divided into 4 groups: control (C, n = 15), diabetes (D, n = 16), MI (I, n = 21), and diabetes + MI (DI, n = 30). MI was induced 15 days after diabetes (STZ) induction. Ninety days after MI, LV and autonomic functions were evaluated (8 animals each group). Left ventricular homogenates were analyzed by Western blotting to evaluate the expression of calcium handling proteins. Results: MI area was similar in infarcted groups (similar to 43%). Ejection fraction and + dP/dt were reduced in I compared with DI. End-diastolic pressure was additionally increased in I compared with DI. Compared with DI, I had increased Na(+)-Ca(2+) exchange and phospholamban expression (164%) and decreased phosphorylated phospholamban at serine(16) (65%) and threonine(17) (70%) expression. Nevertheless, diabetic groups had greater autonomic dysfunction, observed by baroreflex sensitivity and pulse interval variability reductions. Consequently, the mortality rate was increased in DI compared with I, D, and C groups. Conclusions: LV dysfunction in diabetic animals was attenuated after 90 days of myocardial infarction and was associated with a better profile of calcium handling proteins. However, this positive adaptation was not able to reduce the mortality rate of DI animals, suggesting that autonomic dysfunction is associated with increased mortality in this group. Therefore, it is possible that the better cardiac function has been transitory, and the autonomic dysfunction, more prominent in diabetic group, may lead, in the future, to the cardiovascular damage.

Load Ratio Estimation Through Striation Height and Spacing Analysis of an Aerospace Al Alloy 7475-T7351

It is well known that striation spacing may be related to the crack growth rate, da/dN, through Paris equation, as well as the maximum and minimum loads under service loading conditions. These loads define the load ratio, R, and are considered impossible to be evaluated from the inter-spacing striations analysis. In this way, this study discusses the methodology proposed by Furukawa to evaluate the maximum and minimum loads based on the experimental fact that the relative height of a striation, H, and the striation spacing, s, are strongly influenced by the load ratio, R. Fatigue tests in C(T) specimens were conducted on SAE 7475-T7351 Al alloy plates at room temperature and the results showed a straightforward correlation between the parameters H, s, and R. Measurements of striation height, H, were performed using scanning electron microscopy and field emission gun (FEG) after sectioning the specimen at a large inclined angle to amplify the height of the striations. The results showed that for increasing R the values of H/s tend to increase. Striation height, striation spacing, and load ratio correlations were obtained, which allows one to estimate service loadings from fatigue fracture surface survey.

An Extension of the Invariance Principle for a Class of Differential Equations with Finite Delay

An extension of the uniform invariance principle for ordinary differential equations with finite delay is developed. The uniform invariance principle allows the derivative of the auxiliary scalar function V to be positive in some bounded sets of the state space while the classical invariance principle assumes that. V <= 0. As a consequence, the uniform invariance principle can deal with a larger class of problems. The main difficulty to prove an invariance principle for functional differential equations is the fact that flows are defined on an infinite dimensional space and, in such spaces, bounded solutions may not be precompact. This difficulty is overcome by imposing the vector field taking bounded sets into bounded sets.